TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

1. Market Summary (as of Mar 13 , 2015)

NEPSE at close last week (Mar 12, 2015) 978.44

NEPSE high last week (Mar 12, 2015) 988.77

Weekly Change -5.05 (or -0.51%)

Daily Volume (Avg.) NPR 26.41 crores

Total Traded Amount (weekly) NPR 1.06 billion

Immediate Resistance 1036.98

Immediate Support 972.17

RSI 52.66

MACD Line 5.40

Signal Line 7.03

2. Market Trend

Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)

3. RSI

RSI is a form of leading indicator that is believed to be most effective during periods of sideways

movement. Such indicators may create numerous buy and sell signals that are useful when the market

is not clearly trending upwards or downwards. The RSI made a gradual descend this week, but still

maintaining within the neutral zone. RSI, at the beginning of the week, was 62.39 levels. However, by

the close of the trading week, the RSI went down to 52.66 levels.

RSI (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)

4. MACD

The MACD is a momentum oscillator formed by using two different types of moving averages, which

provides specific buying or selling signals. When a MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is

considered to be a positive sign and indicates a time to buy, and vice-versa. The MACD line was

below the Signal line throughout the week, and it continued the downward momentum by the end of

this week as well. However, by the end of the trading week, MACD seems to be touching the signal

line. If the MACD makes a crossover above the signal line, it indicates a buy signal in the market.

MACD (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)

5. Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Band is a technical indicator that consists of a moving average (21-day) along with two

trading bands above (upper band) and below it (lower band). The bands are an indication of volatility,

which are represented by calculating standard deviation. The NEPSE index had crossed above the mid-

band this week, and moved closer towards the upper-band. However, by the end of this week, it made

a slight fall back at the mid-band. The upper and the lower bands continue to converge indicating a

decreasing volatility in the market.

Bollinger Bands (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)

Overview:

NEPSE ended on a negative note this week as it closed lower by -5.62 points (or -0.57%) to end at

978.44 points. Nepse decreased throughout the week, closing lower than the week’s average of 983.93.

The average daily market volume increased this week to NRP 26.41 crores from NRP 23.06 crores the

week prior. The 50-day moving average is still increasing at a higher rate above the 200-day moving

average suggesting that the overall view of the market remains positive. The RSI decreased throughout

the week to end at 52.66 levels, and still maintained within the neutral zone. The MACD line is

moving close with the signal line. However, if this line crosses above the signal line, this would

indicate a buy trigger. The Bollinger Bands indicate a decline in the market volatility as Nepse moved

back towards the mid-band by the end of this week. Nepse still has not been able to move below its

support level of 972.17 points for the past five weeks. If Nepse falls below this support level with

increasing volume, the next closest support level stands at 938.41 points.

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Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)

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RSI (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)

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MACD (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)

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Bollinger Bands (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)

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