neil phillips university of melbourne & phillipsgold p/l, australia
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Adding value in gold exploration. Neil Phillips University of Melbourne & Phillipsgold P/L, Australia. 30 +th SirJulius Wernher Memorial Lecture Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining. 28 October 2010 London UK. Gold supply shortfall Discoveries Discovery – why it matters - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Neil PhillipsUniversity of Melbourne &Phillipsgold P/L, Australia
Adding value in gold exploration
28 October 2010
London UK
30+th SirJulius Wernher Memorial LectureInstitute of Materials, Minerals and Mining
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• Gold supply shortfall• Discoveries• Discovery – why it matters• Exploration in the future• Repeated discoveries – learning from these.
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Supply and demand for gold
Discover gold
Mine gold
Sell gold to meet demand
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Supply and demand for gold
Discover gold
Mine gold
Sell gold to meet demand
4000t pa
2500t pa
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Supply and demand for gold
Discover gold
Mine gold
Sell gold to meet demand
Central banks
Individuals hoarding
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Supply and demand for gold
Discover gold
Mine gold 2500
Sell gold to meet demand 4000
Central banks 30000
Individuals hoarding ~30000
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New Generation Gold Conference
• 2009, 2007, 2005, 2003.
• Also previously 2001, 1999, 1997, 1995.
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Recent discoveries - conclusions
• Mature gold provinces– Archaean of Australia, Canada
• Established gold regions– Ghana
• Less-traditional gold areas (wrt 20th century)– Mali, Peru, China.
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Recent discoveries - conclusions
• Decreasing dominance of gold-only
• Increasing role of gold-plus– Copper-gold– Larger tonnage– Longer life (50-100 years)– Lower gold grade.
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Witwatersrand 1886 and 1951
1886: Rand (George Harrison)Klerksdorp
1930s: Carletonville1940s: Welkom1951: Evander.
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Witwatersrand 1951 to 2010
1951 to 2010: no new goldfields.
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Gold production: 1970 - 2010
South Africa World
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Future exploration focus
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Future exploration focus
Lots of dollars, projects, drilling
or
Raise discovery rate (σ)
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Discovery rate (σ) Adds real value
σOunces discovered per exploration dollar
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Future exploration focus
• Country?• Technique?• Idea?• Who?
• How to add value.
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Which country?
Appetite for riskParticular knowledge or expertiseSpecial opportunity
geology or commercial deal
But not everywhere.
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What techniques?
Classic success stories- Ground magnetics in Witwatersrand- EM in Noranda, Canada (Cu, Zn, Au)- Regolith methods, Western
Australia.
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What ideas? – Gold genesis
Syngenetic on seafloor- Follow horizons, stratigraphy- Only for Cu-Pb-Zn-Ag-Au (VMS).
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What ideas? – Gold genesis
Epigenetic (after rocks have formed)
- Host rocks – mechanical & chemical- Alteration – CO2+K+H2S- Orogenic – role of structural geology
Hogan 2004
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New ideas – Gold genesis
Hydrothermal gold deposits do not form at 700oC
- Continuum model is inappropriate.
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Future exploration focus – Who?
Discovery is a rare eventWithin exploration it is atypical
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Future exploration focus – Who?
Rarely is a discovery so obvious that everyone can ‘see it’, and agrees that it should be drilled.
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Future exploration focus – Who?
It follows then that .. - Harmonious group, consensus- Large collaborative team
- May not correlate with discovery.
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Reproduced from Antrobus (1986)
5 km
Welkom Goldfield
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Hydrothermal model
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Wits formation
• Since 1900 two ideas• Placer dominates exploration• - no source, no universal sorting mechanism
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Reproduced from Antrobus (1986)
5 km
Welkom Goldfield
No gold in source area
No special sedimentary sorting
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Witwatersrand gold - ideas
A winner was selectedCommitment to idea, not to discoveryNo alternatives.
What would Wernher do?
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Sir Julius Wernher
• Rand goldfields of Johannesburg• Wernher, Beit and Co.• Imperial College
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Development of Yandal gold
1894 Alluvial gold
1987 Mt McClure
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Yandal
Perth
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Yandal story – field work
• Fe-rich host rocks• Structural style• Carbonate, mica, pyrite alteration• Quartz veining• Anomalous gold• Akin to prospective gold areas.
Minsaco Resources 1986
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Development of Yandal gold
1894 Alluvial gold
1987 Mt McClure
1992 Bronzewing1993 Jundee, Nimary1996 Jundee deeps- Barton, Centenary1999 Thunderbox
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Future exploration focus – Who?
Smart, motivatedDirected – we are here to make a
discovery.
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Future exploration focus – Who?
Line-of-sight (priorities).
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Future exploration focus – Who?
Confidentiality
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Confidentiality?
“Good!I will use your idea in my next talk”.
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Don’t worry about someone else stealing your idea; if it is any good you will have to ram it down their throat.
(Kerr Wan-Tass, 1997)
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Conclusion
• Discovery – the magic may lie in the people.