Negotiating the Negotiating the Final Status AgreementFinal Status Agreement

Daniel KurtzerDaniel KurtzerHerzliya ConferenceHerzliya Conference

January 22, 2008January 22, 2008

Annapolis + Road Map = Annapolis + Road Map = Peace?Peace?

Annapolis holds potential for:Annapolis holds potential for: Negotiations on final status issues.Negotiations on final status issues. Changed behaviors on the ground.Changed behaviors on the ground. Catalyst for Palestinian reform Catalyst for Palestinian reform

unity among Palestinians on unity among Palestinians on moderate basis.moderate basis.

Requires political commitment.Requires political commitment. Each party faces internal Each party faces internal

political challenges.political challenges.

History as a GuidepostHistory as a Guidepost

This process This process

resumes against resumes against

backdrop of years backdrop of years

of violence and mistrust.of violence and mistrust. USIP Study Group on U.S. USIP Study Group on U.S.

negotiating behavior since Madrid negotiating behavior since Madrid = Flaws in policy and diplomatic = Flaws in policy and diplomatic practice.practice.

Examples of U.S. Lessons Examples of U.S. Lessons to be Learnedto be Learned

Dealing with core asymmetries:Dealing with core asymmetries:Israeli security requirementsIsraeli security requirementsPalestinian political requirements.Palestinian political requirements.

Monitoring and accountability.Monitoring and accountability. Better use of U.S. diplomatic Better use of U.S. diplomatic

“toolbox.”“toolbox.”

Keys to Success = Keys to Success = Core Issues + Change in Core Issues + Change in

BehaviorsBehaviors

Territory and Territory and borders.borders.

Security.Security. Jerusalem.Jerusalem. Refugees.Refugees. Bilateral relations, e.g., water, trade, Bilateral relations, e.g., water, trade,

etc.etc. Road Map obligations.Road Map obligations.

Can the Parties Visualize a Can the Parties Visualize a Solution?Solution?

Clinton “Parameters”,Clinton “Parameters”,Taba talks, GenevaTaba talks, Genevaor Ayalon-Nusseibeh or Ayalon-Nusseibeh Is there consensus onIs there consensus onthe contours of peace?the contours of peace? 1967 lines with swaps.1967 lines with swaps. Two capitals in Jerusalem with Two capitals in Jerusalem with

special regime for Old City.special regime for Old City. Refugees: Live in Palestine + Refugees: Live in Palestine +

compensation.compensation. Layers of security arrangements.Layers of security arrangements.

Ayalon-Nusseibeh Statement of Principles

Two states for two peoples: Both sides will declare that Palestine is the only state of the Palestinian people and Israel is the only state of the Jewish people.

Borders: Permanent borders between the two states will be agreed upon on the basis of the June 4, 1967 lines, UN resolutions, and the Arab peace initiative (known as the Saudi initiative). Border modifications will be based on an equitable and agreed-upon territorial exchange (1:1) in accordance with the vital needs of both sides, including security, territorial contiguity, and demographic considerations. The Palestinian State will have a connection between its two geographic areas, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. After establishment of the agreed borders, no settlers will remain in the Palestinian State.

Jerusalem: Jerusalem will be an open city, the capital of two states. Freedom of religion and full access to holy sites will be guaranteed to all. Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem will come under Palestinian sovereignty, Jewish neighborhoods under Israeli sovereignty. Neither side will exercise sovereignty over the holy places. The State of Palestine will be designated Guardian of al-Haram al-Sharif for the benefit of Muslims. Israel will be the Guardian of the Western Wall for the benefit of the Jewish people. The status quo on Christian holy sites will be maintained. No excavation will take place in or underneath the holy sites without mutual consent.

Right of return: Recognizing the suffering and the plight of the Palestinian refugees, the international community, Israel, and the Palestinian State will initiate and contribute to an international fund to compensate them. Palestinian refugees will return only to the State of Palestine; Jews will return only to the State of Israel. The international community will offer to compensate toward bettering the lot of those refugees willing to remain in their present country of residence, or who wish to immigrate to third-party countries. The Palestinian State will be demilitarized and the international community will guarantee its security and independence.

End of conflict: Upon the full implementation of these principles, all claims on both sides and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will end.

Challenges to Reaching Challenges to Reaching AgreementAgreement

Difficult to compromise on Difficult to compromise on substance.substance.

Internal politics:Internal politics: Israeli coalition politics.Israeli coalition politics. Gaza and Hamas.Gaza and Hamas.

Rogue activities:Rogue activities: Qassams, terrorism, violence.Qassams, terrorism, violence. Outposts, civil disobedience.Outposts, civil disobedience.

PA and/or GOI failure to achieve core PA and/or GOI failure to achieve core Road Map requirements.Road Map requirements.

Example: Palestinian Example: Palestinian Security ResponsibilitiesSecurity Responsibilities

Tenet and Zinni: Plans to Tenet and Zinni: Plans to implement Road Map.implement Road Map.

Generals Dayton, Jones Generals Dayton, Jones and Fraser: Equip/train;and Fraser: Equip/train;long-term planning and long-term planning and monitoring performance.monitoring performance.

Palestinians must achieve Palestinians must achieve measurable performance measurable performance No more No more excuses for Palestinian failure.excuses for Palestinian failure.

Example: Example: Settlements/OutpostsSettlements/Outposts

International:International: Legal consensus reLegal consensus re

settlements violatesettlements violate

Geneva Convention.Geneva Convention. National:National:

Talia Sasson report:Talia Sasson report:

Israeli government Israeli government

does not enforce its own laws.does not enforce its own laws. Negotiating environment:Negotiating environment:

To Palestinians, settlements represent single To Palestinians, settlements represent single most important indicator of Israeli intentions. most important indicator of Israeli intentions.

Role of U.S. and Role of U.S. and International CommunityInternational Community

Diplomatic support:Diplomatic support: U.S.-Israeli relations.U.S.-Israeli relations. Arab peace initiative.Arab peace initiative.

Monitoring and Monitoring and accountability.accountability.

Diplomatic and bilateral assistance:Diplomatic and bilateral assistance: Creative ideas, bridging proposals.Creative ideas, bridging proposals. Economic and governance aid to PA.Economic and governance aid to PA.

Post-agreement role, as agreed.Post-agreement role, as agreed.

Recipe for SuccessRecipe for Success?? Determine whether consensus exists Determine whether consensus exists

on contours of an agreement.on contours of an agreement. Work persistently to flesh out core Work persistently to flesh out core

issues and tradeoffs.issues and tradeoffs. Change behaviors, in fulfillment of Change behaviors, in fulfillment of

Road Map commitments.Road Map commitments. Face down internal political challenges.Face down internal political challenges. Expect active, broad and sustained Expect active, broad and sustained

role by the United States.role by the United States.

Annapolis: Annapolis: Home Run or Road Map to Home Run or Road Map to

Nowhere?Nowhere?