nebraska economic update and housing outlook nifa’s housing innovation marketplace omaha, ne –...
TRANSCRIPT
K. Edmiston, FRB KC1
Nebraska Economic Update and Housing Outlook
NIFA’s Housing Innovation Marketplace
Omaha, NE – January 27, 2010
January 27, 2010
K. Edmiston, FRB KC2
The Housing Market
January 27, 2010
K. Edmiston, FRB KC3
Existing Home Sales (Index Q2 1999 = 100)
January 27, 2010
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
U.S.
Fed District
Nebraska
Dec-05Sep-06 Jun-07 Mar-08Dec-08Sep-09-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Omaha(annual change %)
K. Edmiston, FRB KC4
Months Supply of Existing Homes
January 27, 2010
Omaha Lincoln0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
6.1
5.4
8.38.8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sou
rce:
Are
a R
esi
den
tial R
ealt
ors
Ass
oci
ati
on
s
K. Edmiston, FRB KC5
Existing Home Prices (Index Q3 1991 = 100)
January 27, 2010
1991
1991
1992
1993
1994
1994
1995
1996
1997
1997
1998
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2003
2004
2005
2006
2006
2007
2008
2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
U.S.
Nebraska
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
-6.0
-3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
-6.0
-3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
Nebraska(annual change %)
K. Edmiston, FRB KC6
Value of Residential Construction Contracts (January 2005 = 100)
January 27, 2010
Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-090.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
U.S.Fed Dis-trictNebraska
K. Edmiston, FRB KC7
Delinquencies and Foreclosures
January 27, 2010
Data Source: Lender Processing Services, Inc. Applied Analytics
Omaha Area Foreclosure Rates 2009
Data
Sou
rce:
Realt
yTr
ac
K. Edmiston, FRB KC10
Future Direction
January 14, 2010
Delinquencies remain high, and are on the rise
Modification efforts likely delaying more than preventing foreclosures
K. Edmiston, FRB KC11
Status of Mortgage Pool in Nebraska and U.S.
Status of Mortgage Pool Nebraska USA
Delinquent 30 days 2.98 3.79
Delinquent 60 days 1.19 1.77
Delinquent 90 days + 2.25 4.38
TOTAL PAST DUE 6.41 9.94
Foreclosures Started 0.73 1.42
In Foreclosure Process 1.88 4.47
SERIOUSLY DELINQUENT 4.13 8.85
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
January 14, 2010
K. Edmiston, FRB KC12
Future Direction
January 14, 2010
Delinquencies remain high, and are on the rise
Modification efforts likely delaying more than preventing foreclosures
Subprime mortgage resets were generally modest in light of low mortgage rates, and resets are about over But remaining subprime mortgage holders often
are in trouble
K. Edmiston, FRB KC13
Subprime Mortgages in Nebraska and U.S
3rd Qtr. 2006 3rd Qtr. 2009
Share of Mortgages
Nebraska 11.99 7.39
USA 13.56 10.57
Past Due (%)
Nebraska 14.15 22.64
USA 12.95 26.42
Foreclosure Rate (%)
Nebraska 5.13 7.73
USA 3.86 15.35
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
January 14, 2010
K. Edmiston, FRB KC14
Future Direction
January 14, 2010
Delinquencies remain high, and are on the rise
Modification efforts likely delaying more than preventing foreclosures
Subprime mortgage resets were generally modest in light of low mortgage rates, and resets are about over But remaining subprime mortgage holders often
are in trouble New wave of resets is coming
K. Edmiston, FRB KC15
Mortgage Resets
Source: American Loan Performance, UBS
January 14, 2010
K. Edmiston, FRB KC16
Future Direction
January 14, 2010
Delinquencies remain high, and are on the rise
Modification efforts likely delaying more than preventing foreclosures
Subprime mortgage resets were generally modest in light of low mortgage rates, and resets are about over But remaining subprime mortgage holders often
are in trouble New wave of resets is coming Much will depend on the economy and
housing markets (up ahead!)
K. Edmiston, FRB KC17
The Economic Situation
January 27, 2010
K. Edmiston, FRB KC18
Gross Domestic Product(percent change from previous quarter – annual rate)
January 27, 2010
200
0-I
200
0-III
200
1-I
200
1-III
200
2-I
200
2-III
200
3-I
200
3-III
200
4-I
200
4-III
200
5-I
200
5-III
200
6-I
200
6-III
200
7-I
200
7-III
200
8-I
200
8-III
200
9-I
200
9-III
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
K. Edmiston, FRB KC19
U.S. Retail Sales ($millions)
January 27, 2010
Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09300,000
310,000
320,000
330,000
340,000
350,000
360,000
370,000
380,000
390,000
400,000
300,000.0
310,000.0
320,000.0
330,000.0
340,000.0
350,000.0
360,000.0
370,000.0
380,000.0
390,000.0
400,000.0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
K. Edmiston, FRB KC20
Industry Employment(Percent change from one year ago)
January 27, 2010
Cons. Mining Manf. Trans. Info Finance Prof/Bus Serv.
Trade Other Serv.
Leisure Govt. Utilities Edu/Health
-16.0
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
-16.0
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
-13.8
-11.5-10.7
-5.8-5.2
-4.3-3.9
-3.5
-2.3-1.6
-0.2
0.2
2.1
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
K. Edmiston, FRB KC21
Unemployment Rates
January 27, 2010
Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-090.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Nebraska
Fed Dis-trict
U.S.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-090.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
3.2 3.64.5
Nebraska Fed District U.S.
K. Edmiston, FRB KC22
Nebraska Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance(Percent change from one year ago)
January 27, 2010
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
2008
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
23
Kelly D. Edmiston
1 Memorial DriveKansas City, MO 64198
(816) 881-2004 Voice(816) 881-2199 [email protected]
January 27, 2010