nearby ny and “a” index us stocks/use vs ny futures
TRANSCRIPT
Nearby NY and “A” Index
US Stocks/Use vs NY Futures
Cotton Prices
INTERNATIONAL AREA
Int’l Cotton Area
Int’l Cotton Area
04-06 09/10 10/11 11/12
International 73.33 66.97 71.62 76.03
China 14.17 13.10 12.60 13.24
India 22.09 25.35 27.18 28.10
S. Hemisphere 4.11 3.65 5.80 5.56
Other Int’l 32.96 24.87 26.03 29.12
Million Acres
Int’l Cotton Production
Int’l Cotton Production
04-06 09/10 10/11 11/12
International 97.0 89.4 96.9 104.1
China 31.4 32.0 30.0 32.3
India 20.0 23.2 26.0 27.2
S. Hemisphere 9.0 8.2 13.3 13.4
Other Int’l 36.7 25.9 27.7 31.2
Million Bales
INTERNATIONAL MILL USE& TRADE
Fiber Prices
Fiber and Yarn Prices
World Real GDP Growth
International Monetary Fund, January 2011
Share of World GDP
International Monetary Fund, January 2011
Advanced Economies
Developing Asia
Int’l Mill Use
Int’l Mill Use
04-06 09/10 10/11 11/12
International 118.8 115.1 113.2 117.3
China 50.5 50.0 47.6 48.8
India 18.4 19.7 21.6 22.6
Pakistan 12.0 10.9 10.2 10.9
Other Int’l 38.0 34.5 33.9 34.9
Million Bales
Cotton Imports
China
All Others
Int’l Cotton Exports
US Cotton Exports
US MILL USE
Upland Cotton EAAP• Authorized in the ‘08 Farm Bill
• Funded new textile machinery, new buildings and structural improvements to existing buildings
• Added jobs, reduced costs, increased ability to be more competitive against foreign competition
• Future funding is expected to continue the positive effect on textile employment and efficiency
US Cotton Mill Use
3.7 3.8
US COTTON PRODUCTION
December Cotton Futures
December Corn Futures
November Soybean Futures
NCC PLANTING INTENTIONS SURVEYFOR ALL FARMS UNDER YOUR MANAGEMENT
Acres of:2010
(Actual)2011
(Intended)2011
Expected Price*
Upland cotton (c/lb.)
ELS cotton (c/lb.)
Corn ($/bu.)
Wheat ($/bu.)
Soybeans ($/bu.)
Other crops
Total crop acres
*Includes marketing loan gain.
To respond online, please go to www.cotton.org/survey/11planting WTX
NCC PLANTING INTENTIONS SURVEYFOR ALL FARMS UNDER YOUR MANAGEMENT
Acres of:2010
(Actual)2011
(Intended)2011
Expected Price*
Upland cotton 10,769 (c/lb.)
ELS cotton 204 (c/lb.)
Corn ($/bu.)
Wheat ($/bu.)
Soybeans ($/bu.)
Other crops
Total crop acres
*Includes marketing loan gain.
To respond online, please go to www.cotton.org/survey/11planting U.S.
NCC PLANTING INTENTIONS SURVEYFOR ALL FARMS UNDER YOUR MANAGEMENT
Acres of:2010
(Actual)2011
(Intended)2011
Expected Price*
Upland cotton 10,769 12,263 (c/lb.)
ELS cotton 204 251 (c/lb.)
Corn ($/bu.)
Wheat ($/bu.)
Soybeans ($/bu.)
Other crops
Total crop acres
*Includes marketing loan gain.
To respond online, please go to www.cotton.org/survey/11planting U.S.
2011 Southeast AcreageThousand Acres
2010 Actual
2011Intended
%Change
Alabama 340 388 14.0Florida 92 109 18.3Georgia 1,330 1,410 6.0North Carolina 550 694 26.1South Carolina 202 225 11.2Virginia 83 105 26.9Southeast 2,597 2,930 12.8
Total may not add due to rounding.
2011 Mid-South AcreageThousand Acres
2010 Actual
2011Intended
%Change
Arkansas 545 589 8.0
Louisiana 255 278 8.9
Mississippi 420 524 24.8
Missouri 310 348 12.4
Tennessee 390 544 39.5
Mid-South 1,920 2,283 18.9
Total may not add due to rounding.
2011 Southwest AcreageThousand Acres
2010 Actual
2011Intended
%Change
Kansas 51 69 34.6
Oklahoma 285 326 14.4
Texas 5,550 6,190 11.5
Southwest 5,886 6,585 11.9
Total may not add due to rounding.
2011 West AcreageThousand Acres
2010 Actual
2011Intended
%Change
Arizona 195 226 15.8
California 124 172 38.8
New Mexico 47 67 42.5
West 366 465 27.0
Total may not add due to rounding.
2011 ELS AcreageThousand Acres
2010 Actual
2011Intended
%Change
Arizona 3 4 47.2
California 182 225 23.6
New Mexico 3 3 28.2
Texas 17 19 13.7
West 204 251 23.1
Total may not add due to rounding.
2011 US Planting IntentionsThousand Acres
2010 Actual
2011Intended
%Change
Southeast 2,597 2,930 12.8Mid-South 1,920 2,283 18.9Southwest 5,886 6,585 11.9West 366 465 27.0ALL UPLAND 10,769 12,263 13.9ALL ELS 204 251 23.1ALL COTTON 10,973 12,514 14.0
Total may not add due to rounding.
Indexed Futures PricesRelative to December 15, 2010
Survey Period
Planting Decisions Finalized
US Cotton Production
US Cottonseed Production
US Balance Sheet
09/10 10/11 11/12 Change
Production 12.2 18.3 19.2 0.9
Mill Use 3.5 3.7 3.8 0.1
Exports 12.0 15.3 15.6 0.3
Stocks 2.9 2.3 2.1 -0.2
Million Bales
World Balance Sheet
09/10 10/11 11/12 Change
Production 101.5 115.3 123.2 7.9
Mill Use 118.5 116.9 121.1 4.2
Trade 35.6 38.4 42.2 3.8
Stocks 43.8 42.3 44.6 2.3
Million Bales
World Stocks-to-Use
