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NDCs One Year OnAN OVERVIEW OF G20 COUNTRIES’ ACTION ON REDUCING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

wri.org/ndcs-one-year-on wri.org/cop-22

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND SCOPE

This overview is intended to offer snapshot insights into G20 countries’ action on greenhouse gas mitigation. Experts have provided careful review to ensure that it accurately reflects the current state of affairs, but it is not comprehensive. People looking for additional information should refer to the following collection of resources:

Translating Targets into Numbers: Quantifying the Greenhouse Gas Targets of the G20 Countries AUTHORED BY Katherine Ross, David Rich, and Mengpin Ge> http://www.wri.org/publication/translating-

targets-into-numbers

Achieving Mexico’s Climate Goals: An Eight-Point Action Plan AUTHORED BY Juan-Carlos Altamirano, Erika Ortiz Sánchez, Jeffrey Rissman, Katherine Ross, Taryn Fransen, Carlos Brown Solá, and Julia Martinez> http://www.wri.org/publication/achieving-

mexicos-goals

Opportunities to Enhance Non-Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in China AUTHORED BY Yao Bo, Katherine Ross, Jingjing Zhu, Kristin Igusky, Ranping Song, and Thomas Damassa> http://www.wri.org/publication/greenhouse-gas-

mitigation-in-china

Bridging the Gap Between Energy and Climate Policies in Brazil AUTHORED BY Viviane Romeiro, Taryn Fransen, and Oswaldo Lucon> http://www.wri.org/publication/bridging-gap-

between-energy-and-climate-policies-brasil

Indonesian Climate Policy and Data in CAIT Indonesia Climate Data Explorer (PINDAI) AUTHORED BY Mengpin Ge, Hanny Chrysolite, Andhyta Utami, Arief Wijaya, and Johannes Friedrich> http://www.wri.org/publication/indonesian-

climate-policy-and-data-cait-indonesia-climate-data-explorer-pindai

Climate Policy Implementation in Brazil: Implications for the Nationally Determined Contribution (pending publication)

Pathways for Meeting India’s Climate Goals (pending publication)

How Can Indonesia Achieve its Mitigation Goal? An Analysis of Energy- and Land-Based Policies (pending publication)

The following people at WRI also provided direct input to NDCs One Year On:

Juan Carlos Altamirano, Jessica Brand, Tim Bushman, Paula Caballero, Hanny Chrysolite, Bill Dugan, Melissa Flores, Taryn Fransen, Mengpin Ge, Rhys Gerholdt, Roman Hennig, Kristin Igusky, Xiaoqian Jiang, Paul Joffe, Carni Klirs, Andrew Light, Kelly Levin, Julie Moretti, David Rich, Viviane Romeiro, Katherine Ross, Ranping Song, Juliana Speranza, Tuğçe Uzumoglu, Kitty van der Heijden, David Waskow, and Clorinda Kurnia Wibowo.

COVER PHOTO: THE DANISH WIND INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION

NDCs One Year On | 1

CONTENTS

Foreword.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2

Argentina .................................................................................................................................................................................................4

Australia ...................................................................................................................................................................................................6

Brazil ........................................................................................................................................................................................................8

Canada ...................................................................................................................................................................................................10

China .....................................................................................................................................................................................................12

European Union .....................................................................................................................................................................................14

India .......................................................................................................................................................................................................16

Indonesia ...............................................................................................................................................................................................18

Japan .....................................................................................................................................................................................................20

Mexico ...................................................................................................................................................................................................22

Republic of Korea ...................................................................................................................................................................................24

Russian Federation ................................................................................................................................................................................26

Saudi Arabia ..........................................................................................................................................................................................28

South Africa ...........................................................................................................................................................................................30

Turkey ....................................................................................................................................................................................................32

United States .........................................................................................................................................................................................34

Reference Guide .....................................................................................................................................................................................36

Glossary of Terms ..................................................................................................................................................................................37

Endnotes ................................................................................................................................................................................................38

2 |

In December 2015, the world attained new heights in international cooperation and commitment

to tackling climate change by securing a historic global pact at the Paris climate negotiations. The

Paris Agreement remains such a significant achievement because it allows the more than 190

countries that adopted it to reduce emissions in ways that best align with their own economies,

social and civic agendas, and aspirations for the future. The Paris Agreement’s ground-up

approach provides a robust structure designed to drive increasingly ambitious climate action

over time that will lead to limited global temperature rise and avoid the worst impacts of climate

change. When countries submitted their intended nationally determined contributions in 2015,

they did so knowing that progress toward meeting their stated goals would be analyzed by

groups such as World Resources Institute (WRI). This act created a bedrock of good faith and

cooperation that is carrying international climate action into a new era.

Now, more and more countries are formally joining the Agreement, dropping the “intended” aspect of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the process, and are taking steps to realize their climate goals. While transitioning to a zero-carbon future will take time, those following the COP22 negotiations in Marrakech, Morocco will be interested to know what has been done since Paris to advance climate action and to examine the additional efforts necessary to achieve countries’ goals.

NDCs One Year On begins to answer these questions, highlighting steps that G20 countries have taken and have yet to take to make the greenhouse gas mitigation components of their NDCs a reality. This overview reports on the countries that are responsible for roughly 80 percent of global GHG emissions and 80 percent of global GDP, and offers snapshots that should provide useful insights. Adaptation, financial support, and other non-mitigation commitments in NDCs are equally deserving of analysis, but they are outside the scope of this overview.

This resource draws on the robust analysis and expertise of WRI’s Open Climate Network (OCN), and the recently released Translating Targets into Numbers: Quantifying the Greenhouse Gas Targets of the G20 Countries. OCN brings together independent research institutes and civil society groups from key countries to monitor and enhance their countries’ efforts to address climate change. In 2016 and 2017, OCN and its partners are releasing research on how key countries, including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and the United States can overcome barriers to creating and implementing effective climate policies.

A range of recent analyses, including the 2015 UN synthesis report, found that current NDCs would limit warming to around 2.6–3.7 degrees Celsius by 2100. So we already know that much more must be done to meet the goal, set out in the Paris Agreement, of limiting temperature rise to well below 2 or 1.5 degrees Celsius. Moreover, countries’ strategies for implementing the current NDCs—in particular, how they drive investments in long-lived

FORE WORD


infrastructure—will make or break our ability to meet these goals. While ambition in target-setting and integration of NDC goals into national policies has been uneven, our analysis also reveals many reasons to be optimistic.

For example, in the months since the Paris Agreement was adopted, India set ambitious yearly solar capacity targets, China made environmental stewardship an integral component of its 13th Five-Year Plan, and Indonesia committed to restoring 2 million hectares of peatland and preventing peat fires, the greatest source of its emissions in recent years. Some countries have also taken steps to advance domestic adaptation measures and align financial flows with climate action priorities.

Broadly speaking, we found that all G20 countries have taken concrete actions to achieve their NDCs, although there is undoubtedly variation in countries’ ambitions and levels of progress. Exemplar countries are notable for having acted on a number of fronts, such as improving institutional arrangements for coordinated climate action, taking action on limiting hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), channeling finances toward clean energy projects, aligning climate policies with national development agendas, and implementing new emissions-reduction projects in all sectors of the economy, to name a few.

A major achievement in Paris last year was the commitment of the vast majority of countries to tackle climate change for generations to come. The 176 countries not profiled in this overview, though not among the world’s largest economies, are no less committed to and invested in meeting their NDC goals. Addressing both mitigation and adaptation, Uganda has opened adaptation centers to provide climate change information to rural communities, Colombia has developed long-term

provincial plans for enhancing climate resilience, and six Pacific Island States (the Cook Islands, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu) have committed to achieving 100 percent renewables in their energy/electricity mixes between 2020 and 2030, to name but a few of the many examples.

Implementing this inaugural round of NDCs is just the first of many steps on our journey toward limiting temperature rise to well below 2 or 1.5 degrees Celsius. We at WRI believe we best serve this worldwide mission by presenting analyses such as those showcased in this overview and offering our best strategic thinking on how countries can not only avoid the worst impacts of climate change, but also maximize the opportunities and synergies presented by these goals. In practice, that means avoiding locking in to fossil fuel-based energy systems that are inconsistent with long-term climate goals, and finding areas of overlap with other global priorities, such as those set out in the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Such outcomes do not happen by accident. They require conscious forethought of the kind that has already brought us to this hopeful juncture. Creating a resilient, zero-emissions world is everybody’s responsibility and everybody’s prize. Here lies proof that our journey there has begun.

Paula Caballero,

Global Director, Climate Program, World Resources Institute

NOVEMBER 2016

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

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LULU

CF (

MtC

O2e

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Year

Conditional GHG target in 2030:

469 MtCO2e

BAU GHG emissions in 2030:

670 MtCO2e

GHG emissions in 2012:

429 MtCO2e

Unconditional GHG target in 2030:

570 MtCO2e

HISTORICAL EMISSIONS AND TARGET LEVEL OF EMISSIONS

ArgentinaGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015

9.86 tCO2e/person (#46 in world ranking)

TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS (INCLUDING LULUCF) IN 2012

583.17 billion US$(0.7% of global GDP)

43.4 million(0.6% of the world’s population)

429 MtCO2e (0.9% of global GHG emissions)

GHG EMISSIONS PER CAPITA IN 2012

OVERVIEW OF GHG TARGETS

Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

An unconditional target to reduce GHG emissions by 15% by 2030, relative to projected BAU emissions for that year

A conditional target to reduce GHG emissions by 30% by 2030, relative to projected BAU emis-sions for that year

Cancun pledge Argentina did not communicate a GHG target in its Cancun pledge

Long-term GHG target Argentina has not formally communicated a long-term GHG target

Emissions peak year Argentina has not formally communicated when it anticipates that its GHG emissions will peak

Average annual rate of change in GHG emissions to meet NDC

Unconditional target: +1.8% per annum between 2012 and 2030Conditional target: +0.5% per annum between 2012 and 2030

Average annual rate of change in GHG emissions to meet Cancun pledge

Not applicable


Argentina has a goal to generate 20 percent of its energy from

renewable sources by 2025. Current clean energy generation

stands at 1.8 percent. In order to achieve its goal, the country

plans to add 600 MW of wind power, 300 MW of solar power,

65 MW of biomass, 20 MW of hydro and 15 MW of biogas

capacity to its energy mix—1 GW in total.5 And, in August 2016,

Argentina began its renewable energy supply auction for

1,000 MW of new clean energy.6


Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

An unconditional target to reduce GHG emissions by 15% by 2030, relative to projected BAU emissions for that year

A conditional target to reduce GHG emissions by 30% by 2030, relative to projected BAU emis-sions for that year

Cancun pledge Argentina did not communicate a GHG target in its Cancun pledge

Long-term GHG target Argentina has not formally communicated a long-term GHG target

Emissions peak year Argentina has not formally communicated when it anticipates that its GHG emissions will peak




Not applicable

COUNTRY PRIORITIES AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates in the world. In 2015, consumer prices rose 15 percent, while private economists estimate current inflation at 28 percent.1 Economic crises besiege Argentina on a frequent basis, often leaving the climate agenda on the back burner.

However, in 2016, the country has taken some steps to advance NDC implementation. For example, in March 2016, the newly elected President Mauricio Macri met with U.S. President Barack Obama to explore opportunities to strengthen the relationship between the United States and Argentina, and partner to address global challenges. Part of this meeting included announcements to increase ambition in combating climate change by: enhancing Argentina’s NDC (one of the only countries to make such a commitment), phasing down hydrofluorocarbons, and reducing emissions from international aviation. Other action areas included cooperation in power sector reform and clean energy, the safe and responsible development of unconventional oil and gas, and leadership on clean energy.2

This meeting was soon followed by domestic climate action. In July 2016, Argentina established the “RenovAr” program, which provides financial incentives for clean energy projects such as wind, solar, biomass, and biogas. Then, in August 2016, the government held the first cabinet meeting of the newly expanded National Climate Change Office. The meeting was attended by representatives of civil society, academia, workers’ associations, and the private sector, the aim being to gather an “enriched level of input.” The major topic of discussion at this first meeting was the issue of using renewables to enhance climate action. Argentina’s Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development emphasized the need to have a revised climate agenda for COP22—one that encompasses both mitigation and adaptation and is integrated at the provincial level.3 This statement has received mixed reactions from the Argentinian public, as it is not yet clear whether this revised agenda will represent strengthened or weakened ambition. Additional concerns were also raised when the government removed export taxes on some agricultural products at the end of 2015.4 This move could encourage agricultural expansion that might pose a threat to the country’s forests.

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Conditional GHG target in 2020: 444–472 MtCO2e

Unconditional GHG target in 2030: 433–445 MtCO2e

Year

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523 MtCO2e


527 MtCO2e


AustraliaGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015



1.34 trillion US$ (1.8% of global GDP)

23.8 million (0.3% of the world’s population)




NDC Reduce GHG emissions by 26–28% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels

Cancun pledge An unconditional target to reduce GHG emissions by 5% by 2020, relative to 2000 levelsA conditional target to reduce GHG emissions by 15–25% by 2020, relative to 2000 levels

Long-term GHG target Australia has not formally communicated a long-term GHG target

Emissions peak year Australia has not formally communicated a GHG emissions peak year


–0.9 to –1.1% per annum between 2014 and 2030


Unconditional target: +0.1% per annum between 2014 and 2020Conditional target: –1.6 to –2.5% per annum between 2014 and 2020


Australia’s Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) committed

A$837 million to new investments in the Australian clean energy

sector in the 2015/16 financial year, contributing to projects with

a total value of A$2.5 billion.18


Australia’s action on climate change in recent years has fluctuated dramatically. Between July 2012 and July 2014, the country was one of the largest nations in the world to implement a carbon pricing mechanism.7 It also became the first country to repeal a carbon price, in July 2014, and the country’s GHG emissions—which had been falling—have been on the rise ever since. Several new climate initiatives are underway, with varying degrees of ambition:

In 2012, the government established the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) with an A$10 billion allocation. Then, in 2016, the government established a Clean Energy Innovation Fund, which will invest in emerging clean technologies to help them “make the leap from demonstration to commercial deployment.”8

In 2014, the government established the A$2.55 billion Emissions Reduction Fund and its Safeguard Mech-anism.9 The fund came into force in July 2014, and provides incentives to reduce emissions by purchasing credits through auctions (the first of which occurred in August 2015). As of August 2016, the fund had contracted 143 MtCO2e in emissions reductions (after three auctions) at an average price of A$12.1 per ton.10

However, the facility-level baselines set under the Safeguard Mechanism are not projected to be binding on a single liable entity before 2020. While the government has indicated that the safeguard mechanism will be needed to drive emissions reductions to meet its 2030 target, it has not yet made any commitment to tight-en baselines. The government does plan to review its climate policies next year, and many hope that this will set a path toward stronger policies.

In 2015, the government released the National Energy Productivity Plan 2015–2030 (NEPP),11 which out-lines measures to achieve the country’s national energy productivity target (which is to improve Australia’s energy productivity by 40 percent between 2015 and 2030). The NEPP is promising but at a very early stage, and it will require sustained support from federal and state governments. However, the country recently cut back its Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) science funding, reduced its Australian Renewable Energy Agency funding,12 and scaled back its renewable energy target from 41,000 GWh by 2020 to 33,000 GWh in 2015.13

In 2016, the government committed a further A$18 million toward research, building efficiency, and other actions under the NEPP.14

Several states are taking stronger action, for example, Victoria has set a target of 40 percent renewable elec-tricity by 2025,15 and the Australian Capital Territory has committed to 100 percent renewables by 2020.16

In 2017, the government will start a consultation process to identify emissions-reduction policies beyond 2020.17 This provides a critical opportunity to restart policy reform at the national level.

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1,977–2,068 MtCO2e


1,203 MtCO2e


1,300 MtCO2e


1,200 MtCO2e


BrazilGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015




208 million (2.8% of the world’s population)

1,203 MtCO2e (2.5% of global GHG emissions)



NDC Reduce GHG emissions by 37% by 2025, relative to 2005 levels, with an indicative goal to reduce GHG emissions by 43% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels

Cancun pledge Reduce GHG emissions by 36.1 to 38.9 percent by 2020, relative to projected levels

Long-term GHG target Brazil has not formally communicated a long-term GHG target

Emissions peak year Brazil has not formally communicated a GHG emissions peak year


+0.5 percent per annum between 2012 and 2025–0.02 percent per annum between 2012 and 2030


+8.0 to +9.0 percent per annum between 2012 and 2020


At the opening ceremony of the Rio 2016 Olympics, Brazil

showed a video clip on climate change. The clip, narrated by

Academy Award-winning actor Judi Dench, included maps

and graphics showing how rapidly the earth’s temperature has

increased over time, how drastically the Antarctic ice sheet

has diminished in recent decades and how steadily seas are

rising around the globe.19 The opening ceremony was expected

to draw in 3 billion viewers,20 providing a visible platform to

highlight the importance of tackling climate change.


Brazil has developed and implemented a range of policies and sectoral plans to address both climate change mitigation and adaptation. The NDC calls for reducing GHG emissions 37 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 and 43 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This marks the first time a major developing country has committed to an absolute reduction of emissions from a base year, as opposed to reductions based on projected emissions, emissions intensity, or other metrics. Brazil has also set targets to increase the share of renewables (excluding hydropower) used in electricity generation to 23 percent by 2030. The emphasis on non-hydro sources means that biomass, solar, and wind will play a greater role in Brazil’s overall energy mix than at present. Hydropower currently generates about 66 percent of Brazil’s electricity; other renewable energy sources, less than 10 percent.

A recent WRI report shows that Brazil can take advantage of a number of cost-effective abatement opportunities to reduce energy-related GHG emissions by approximately 40 percent relative to the baseline of current plans for the energy sector. Such efforts will also deliver health co-benefits and increase the competitiveness of its cities. Read more online at http://www.wri.org/publication/bridging-gap-between-energy-and-climate-policies-brasil. Another forthcoming WRI report shows how Brazil can advance the implementation of its climate policies by (1) aligning domestic climate policies with long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, (2) establishing a comprehensive system to monitor policy implementation and assess impacts, (3) accelerating the development of supportive policy instruments, and (4) simplifying institutional arrangements and increasing transparency.

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Year

GHG emissions in 2014: 804 MtCO2e


621 MtCO2e Unconditional GHG target in 2030:

524 MtCO2e


CanadaGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015


TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS (INCLUDING LULUCF) IN 2012:






NDC Reduce GHG emissions by 30% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels

Cancun pledge Reduce GHG emissions by 17% by 2020, relative to 2005 levels

Long-term GHG target Canada has not formally communicated a long-term GHG target

Emissions peak year Canada has not formally communicated a GHG emissions peak year


–2.2% per annum between 2014 and 2030




Canada will commit CA$2 billion to a Low-Carbon Economy

Trust to support all provinces and territories with emissions-

reduction projects in their pursuit of a low-carbon future.

Projects are eligible for trust funding if they can demonstrate the

ability to “materially reduce carbon emissions,” including clean

energy projects that can be scaled up and commercialized.30


As one of the world’s largest GHG emitters, Canada has an important role to play in tackling climate change. However, there is concern that Canada’s NDC may lack ambition relative to other developed nations.21 For example, according to WRI estimates, the E.U. and U.S. NDCs aim to reduce GHG emissions between 2020 and 2030 by approximately 2.8 percent per year. Canada’s NDC would require a significantly lower rate of 1.7 percent per year.22

In the last year, there has been a positive shift in Canada’s climate response. Since COP21, Canada has pursued several strategies that can help achieve its NDC and raise its level of ambition. In March 2016, the Canadian government announced the Vancouver Declaration on clean growth and climate change. This Declaration launched a negotiation process between the federal and provincial/territorial governments to agree on a national plan to reach Canada’s NDC target.23 This process may also develop a national approach to carbon pricing and an accelerated coal phase-out schedule.24 In October 2016, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that all provinces and territories will have some form of carbon pricing by 2018. The government is also proposing a minimum carbon price: CA$10/tCO2e in 2018, rising by CA$10 each year to a maximum of CA$50/tCO2e in 2022. Canada also agreed to the North American Climate, Clean Energy, and Environment Partnership, which seeks to achieve 50 percent clean energy generation in North America by 2025, reduce methane emissions in the oil and gas sector 40–45 percent by 2025, and strengthen energy efficiency and vehicle emissions standards.25

Canada intends to establish a trust to help fund carbon-reduction projects too.26 Along with this trust, the federal government has also committed to providing two phases of infrastructure funding in three categories: social (CA$3.4 billion), green (CA$5 billion), and public transit (CA$3.4 billion).27

At a subnational level, various provinces have also announced mitigation strategies to complement Canada’s national-level actions:28

In 2016, Alberta and Manitoba agreed to an electrical grid integration project to allow for greater trans-fer of clean, renewable hydroelectricity between the two provinces.

During COP21, Ontario, Manitoba, and Quebec announced a joint plan to establish a regional cap-and-trade program. In 2016, Ontario announced a Climate Action Plan based on investing the proceeds of cap-and-trade auctions in climate action, with a focus on electrification.29

In 2015, British Columbia and Quebec announced a goal to make all new additions to the passenger vehicle fleet zero-emissions (ZEV) by 2050. Quebec is in the process of enacting a ZEV standard, and British Columbia recently renewed its EV incentives as well.

12 |


NDC Reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60–65% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels

Peak CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak early

Increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030Increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters by 2030, relative to 2005

levels.

Cancun pledge Reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020, relative to 2005 levels

Increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15% by 2020Increase forest coverage by 40 million ha and forest stock volume by 1.3 billion m3 by 2020,

relative to 2005 levels

Long-term GHG target China has not formally communicated a long-term GHG target

Emissions peak year China communicated that it intends to peak its CO2 emissions by around 2030, and make best efforts

to peak earlier


+0.9 to +3.8 percent between 2013 and 2030


+0.2 to +2.6 percent between 2013 and 2020

CO2 emissions

in 2013: 8,980 MtCO2

Unconditional CO

2 target in 2030:

9,276–12,960 MtCO2

Conditional CO

2 target in 2020:

9,541–11,372 MtCO2

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4,000

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO2 E

mis

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nerg

y-R

elat

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ctiv

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(M

tCO

2)

Year

HISTORICAL EMISSIONS AND TARGET LEVEL OF EMISSIONS*

China

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GDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015

7.91 tCO2e/person(#67 in world ranking)



1.371 billion(18.7% of the world’s population)



*Since China’s CO2 targets for 2020 and 2030 are emissions intensity targets, the expected levels of emissions in 2020 and 2030 consistent with meeting the goals depend on assumptions about

future rates of GDP growth. This analysis assumes annual average GDP growth of between 8.1 and 8.7 percent for the period 2005–2020 and 6.6 and 7.4 percent for the period 2005–2030. For more information, refer to Translating Targets into Numbers: Quantifying the Greenhouse Gas Targets of the G20 Countries accessible at http://www.wri.org/publication/translating-targets-into-numbers



In March 2016, China released its 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP), which will guide the country’s economic and social development from 2016 through 2020. It builds on progress made over the last five years, and makes clear that environmental stewardship is an increasingly integral component of China’s development. The plan also lays out targets and measures to address several sustainability challenges—including climate change, air pollution, water, urbanization, and transportation. The new plan’s high-level targets and policies will continue to strengthen China’s efforts to shift to a more sustainable model of growth and deliver on its climate commitments.

The FYP sets out a new round of targets for the carbon and energy intensity of China’s economy. If China meets its new target of reducing carbon intensity by 18 percent below 2015 levels by 2020, then, by that year, the country will actually have reduced its carbon intensity by 48 percent relative to 2005 levels,31 thus exceeding its original target of a 40–45 percent reduction. It will also be a first step toward achieving its Paris Agreement pledge to reduce carbon intensity 60–65 percent by 2030. Along with the carbon-intensity pledge, China’s Paris commitments include a target to peak carbon emissions around 2030 and to make best efforts to peak earlier. New analysis shows that China could peak its CO2 emissions by 2025, if not sooner.32 In recent years, China has also advanced in other areas such as rebalancing the economy, placing limits on coal, improving energy efficiency, and planning a national emissions-trading scheme.33

While making progress, the country’s effort to decouple emissions from economic growth at its present stage of development faces continuing uncertainties.34 One of the challenges is wasted renewable energy; for example, 12.6 percent of solar power and 21 percent of wind power that could have been generated was curtailed in 2015 and the first half of 2016.35 China issued a series of measures to tackle the problem, such as an emergency ban on new coal power construction and new management rules to guarantee the sale of renewable energy generation on the grid.36 Another important consideration is China’s non-CO2 GHG emissions, which are not included in the country’s emissions-reduction target but do comprise a large portion of the country’s national GHG inventory (18 percent). Recent WRI analysis highlights the importance of taking action on this significant emissions source and finds that, just by scaling up existing initiatives, China can reduce its non-CO2 GHG emissions by nearly 30 percent by 2030. Read more online at http://www.wri.org/publication/greenhouse-gas-mitigation-in-china.

China shut down 150 million tons of coal-mining capacity in the

first eight months of 2016, and the government plans to close coal

mines with 100 million tonnes of production capacity by the end

of the year. At the end of August, the country had produced 10

percent less coal on a year-on-year basis. Coal consumption in

China has fallen two years in a row since 2014.37


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European UnionGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015









Cancun pledge An unconditional target to reduce GHG emissions by 20% by 2020, relative to 1990 levelsA conditional target to reduce GHG emissions by 30% by 2020, relative to 1990 levels

Long-term GHG target To reduce GHG emissions by 80–95% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels

Emissions peak year The European Union communicated that its GHG emissions peaked in 1979


–1.2% per annum between 2014 and 2030 (including the LULUCF sector)


Unconditional target: +1.0 percent per annum between 2014 and 2020 (excluding the LULUCF sector)Conditional target: –1.2% per annum between 2014 and 2020 (excluding the LULUCF sector)

Unconditional GHG target

(excl. LULUCF) in 2020:

4,526 MtCO2e

Unconditional GHG target (incl.

LULUCF) in 2030: 3,242 MtCO2e

Conditional GHG target

(excl. LULUCF) in 2020:

3,960 MtCO2e

GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF)

in 20144,278 MtCO2e

GHG emissions (incl. LULUCF)

in 20143,976 MtCO2e

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The EU is planning to spend up to 20 percent of its budget

between 2014 and 2020 on climate change action. This triples

the current share and could yield as much as €180 billion in

climate spending in all major EU policy areas over the seven-

year period. The EU’s development policy will be one of several

programs contributing to the 20 percent spent on climate

change action. From 2014 to 2020, the EU’s development

policy will devote €14 billion (about US$15.7 billion) to help

developing countries implement their NDCs.43


The European Union (EU) is progressing on its plans to achieve its NDC. In July 2015, the European Commission proposed a revision to the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). This revision covers increased emissions-reduction rates, better targeted carbon leakage rules, and support mechanisms to help the industry and power sectors meet the innovation and investment challenges of the transition to a low-carbon economy.38 A year later, in July 2016, the European Commission proposed a “fair and cost-effective” distribution of the 30 percent emissions-reduction target between all EU Member States, along with policies to help member states achieve their targets. These policies include new one-off flexibility rules to access allowances from the EU ETS, new flexibility rules to access credits from the land-use sector, the integration of the land-use sector into the 2030 Climate and Energy Framework, and a comprehensive strategy for low-emissions mobility.39,40

In June 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) voted to leave the EU. Before the UK can officially leave, both parties need to reach an agreement on the terms of withdrawal. Negotiations can take up to two years, but the terms of withdrawal then need to be approved by all the remaining EU countries.41 Until the UK can formally leave the EU, the country will continue to abide by EU law and EU targets will remain unaffected.42

16 |

IndiaGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015

2.33 tCO2e/person(#141 in world ranking)



1.311 billion (17.8% of the world’s population)




NDC Reduce GHG emissions per unit of GDP by 33–35% by 2030, relative to 2005 levelsIncrease the share of non-fossil energy sources in electricity generation to 40 percent by 2030Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tCO

2e through additional forest and tree cover by 2030

Cancun pledge Reduce GHG emissions per unit of GDP by 20–25% by 2020, relative to 2005 levels

Long-term GHG target India has not formally communicated a long-term GHG target

Emissions peak year India has not formally communicated a GHG emissions peak year





-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G E

mis

sion

s ex

clud

ing

LULU

CF a

nd a

gric

ultu

re (

MtC

O2e

)

Year


2,355 MtCO2e


2,803–3,450 MtCO2e


4,278–6,647 MtCO2e

HISTORICAL EMISSIONS AND TARGET LEVEL OF EMISSIONS*

*Since India's GHG targets for 2020 and 2030 are emissions intensity targets, the expected levels of emissions in 2020 and 2030 consistent with meeting the goals depend on assumptions about future rates of GDP growth. This analysis assumes annual average GDP growth of between 6.6 and 7.6 percent for the period 2005-2020 and 6.3 and 8.0 percent for the period 2005-2030. For more information, refer to Translating Targets into Numbers: Quantifying the Greenhouse Gas Targets of the G20 Countries accessible at http://www.wri.org/publication/translating-targets-into-numbers


In 2014, India announced a target to install 175

GW of renewable energy by 2022. Current installed

renewable energy capacity stands at 34 GW.


In 2014, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a goal to increase solar power capacity to 100 GW by 2022—five times higher than the previous target.44 Since then, the commitment has been expanded to 175 GW of installed renewable energy by 2022, comprising 50 GW of wind and 25 GW of other alternative sources. The solar portion of the 2022 target alone is extremely ambitious (the world’s total installed solar power capacity was 181 GW in 2014)45 and would make India a global leader in renewable energy. India’s total installed solar power capacity currently stands at 5.8 GW,46 so the country will need to significantly ramp up the pace of solar capacity additions, from an average 4 GW per year to 15+ GW per year to meet the 2022 target. Critics have been skeptical, citing hurdles like poor transmission infrastructure and lack of access to finance.47 Yet there have been recent signs that the country is starting to take serious steps toward achieving its solar goals. In April 2016, the government released ambitious year-on-year solar capacity targets, which chart a roadmap for achieving the country’s 2022 goal. India looks set to reach its annual solar capacity addition target for this fiscal year—the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy has already approved the installation of 15 GW of new solar projects, of which 12 GW are likely to be in operation before March 2017.

India’s solar goal will support the achievement of the country’s NDC. Moreover, forthcoming WRI analysis finds that India can meet its NDC goals by enhancing the implementation of five key climate policies:

Performance, Achieve, and Trade (PAT) Scheme: a cap-and-trade scheme covering the most energy-intensive sectors of the economy.

Renewable Energy Mission: a national renewable energy target to be met, in part, through mandated Renewable Purchase Obligations imposed on states to ensure a minimum percentage of renewables in their energy mix.

Clean Environment Cess: an environmental tax on domestically produced coal, lignite, and peat.

Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC): voluntary guidelines for higher energy standards in new commercial buildings.

Dedicated Freight Corridors (DFC): new high-capacity rail lines intended to accommodate increasing freight traffic and shift more freight transport from road to rail.

Full implementation of these policies will require improved access to cheaper technologies and reduced financing costs, strengthened institutional capacity, better trading mechanisms for the PAT Scheme and Renewable Energy Mission, enforced compliance, and improved monitoring and evaluation. However, India’s coal production is projected to increase between 2015 and 2020, making it the second-largest coal producer in the world. The country is also expected to become the second-largest coal consumer in the world by 2030.48

18 |

IndonesiaGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015



861.93 billion US$ (1.2% of global GDP)





NDC An unconditional target to reduce GHG emissions by 29% by 2030, relative to a BAU scenario A conditional target to reduce GHG emissions by 41% by 2030, relative to a BAU scenario

Cancun pledge Reduce GHG emissions by 26% by 2020, relative to a BAU scenario

Long-term GHG target Indonesia has not formally communicated a long-term GHG target

Emissions peak year Indonesia has not formally communicated a GHG emissions peak year




+6.3% per annum between 2012 and 2020


2,950 MtCO2e

Unconditional GHG target in 2020: 2,183 MtCO2e

Conditional GHG target in 2030: 1,700 MtCO2e



2,881 MtCO2e


1,454 MtCO2e

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

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mis

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s in

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CF (

MtC

O2e

)

Year



Peat fires and peat degradation are the largest contributors to

Indonesia’s GHG emissions. The government has committed

to the restoration of 2 million ha of peatland between

2016 and 2020.52 To achieve this target, the president has

established the Peat Restoration Agency, with a first task of

restoring 600,000 ha of peatland by the end of 2016.


In the last year, Indonesia has taken concrete actions to reduce GHG emissions, predominantly related to forest protection and clean energy supply:

FORESTS: In 2015, around 65 million hectares (ha) of primary forests and peatlands gained protection under the country’s forest moratorium, which prohibits new licenses to clear key forest areas.49 The national forest moratorium creates a much-needed opportunity to undertake critical forest governance reforms that could lead to long-term improvements in the way land-use decisions are made in the country. In 2016, the country established the Peat Restoration Agency to restore 2 million ha of peatland and prevent peat fires, the greatest source of emissions in recent years.

CLEAN ENERGY: In 2015, Indonesia committed to increase its research and development budget for clean ener-gy to US$150 million by 2020.50 While this represents a promising start, the country will also need to signifi-cantly increase clean energy deployment. Clean energy represents only 7 percent of the national energy mix, and Indonesia’s energy consumption is predicted to more than triple by 2030.51 Reducing fossil fuel consump-tion and moving toward renewable energy are vital to avoid lock-in to a high-carbon future.

In 2011, the Indonesian government released the National Action Plan to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. All provinces have since submitted local action plans—these plans will be largely responsible for curbing GHG emissions and reaching the NDC goal. To learn more about each province’s climate commitment—and how much progress has been made so far—explore Indonesia’s Climate Data Explorer at: www.cait.wri.org/Indonesia.

20 |

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G E

mis

sion

s in

clud

ing

LULU

CF (M

tCO

2e)

Year


1,302 MtCO2e

Unconditional GHG target in 2020: 1,257 MtCO2e Unconditional GHG

target in 2030: 1,042 MtCO2e


JapanGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015









Cancun pledge Reduce GHG emissions by 3.8% by 2020, relative to 2005 levels

Long-term GHG target Japan communicated a long-term target to reduce GHG emissions by 80% by 2050, relative to 2010 levels

Emissions peak year Japan has not formally communicated a GHG emissions peak year






Japan has a long-term goal to reduce GHG emissions by

80 percent by 2050, to be achieved in part by pursuing

innovative energy efficiency measures and maximizing the

use of renewable energy.58


In recent years, Japan has shifted its power generation from nuclear to fossil fuel-based technology, primarily in response to the Fukushima nuclear accident of 2011. While Japan is a country with a long history53 of national policies focusing on climate and energy issues, climate policies have fallen lower down the political agenda in recent years. However, there are some exceptions:

In 2012, a Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) for renewable energy came into force. As of March 2016, roughly 87 GW (92 percent of which is photovoltaic (PV)) have been approved for the FiT. However, only 28 GW of renewables were operating as of March 2016.54

In 2014, the government announced the new Basic Energy Plan of 2014,55 which calls for reintroduction of nu-clear energy. Multiple nuclear power plants have applied for a restart and five reactors, with a total of 4.41 GW capacity, have been approved. The plan also aims to diversify Japan’s energy mix toward renewable energy.

Various carbon-pricing policies are in place in Japan, including a local emissions-trading schemes in Tokyo and Saitama, a global warming countermeasures tax, and international emissions credits under the Joint Cred-iting Mechanism (JCM) scheme.

According to Japan’s NDC, 56 percent of the country’s electricity will still be supplied by fossil fuels in 2030. The construction of new coal-fired power plants will have a negative impact on Japan’s emissions-reduction targets in the long term. Research has shown that Japan will be able to achieve its NDC (a 26 percent emissions reduction below 2013 levels by 2030) through additional investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency, even without using nuclear power.56 A 30 percent reduction is said to be possible if the government proceeds with plans to bring some nuclear reactors back online and makes significant progress on renewable energy and energy efficiency.57

22 |

MexicoGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015

6.20 tCO2e/person (#83 in world ranking after)







NDC An unconditional target to reduce GHG emissions by 22% by 2030, relative to projected emissionsA conditional target to reduce GHG emissions by 36% by 2030, relative to projected emissions

Cancun pledge Reduce GHG emissions by 30% by 2020, relative to projected emissions

Long-term GHG target Mexico communicated a target to reduce GHG emissions by 50 percent by 2050, relative to 2000 levels

Emissions peak year Mexico communicated that its unconditional GHG target implies a net emissions peak starting from 2026


Unconditional target: +0.9% per annum between 2013 and 2030Conditional target: –0.3% per annum between 2013 and 2030



-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G E

mis

sion

s in

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ing

LULU

CF (

MtC

O2e

)

Year

Unconditional GHG target in 2030: 759 MtCO2e


960 MtCO2e


973 MtCO2e

GHG emissions in 2013: 656 MtCO2e


623 MtCO2e


672 MtCO2e




In recent years, Mexico has developed and implemented a range of policies and targets to address climate change:

In 2012, the country became the first developing country to pass comprehensive climate change legislation.59

In 2015, the country passed the Energy Transition Act, which represents a major step toward diversifying Mexico’s energy mix and mandates an energy efficiency target.

In July 2016, President Peña Nieto joined with Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada and President Obama of the United States to put forward an aligned and comprehensive set of climate and energy priorities, heralding a new phase of continent-wide collaboration.60 The group also issued a series of trilateral commitments, such as reaching 50 percent clean power generation in North America by 2025, aligning and improving energy efficiency standards, and reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector by 40–45 percent by 2025.

In November 2016, Mexico will launch a year-long simulation of a cap-and-trade program, in a test run for a national carbon market expected to launch in 2018.61

With regard to the country’s NDC, new WRI analysis finds that the country can meet its 2030 GHG targets while taking advantage of the economic opportunities and health benefits associated with a low-carbon future. However, to meet these long-term emissions goals, Mexico will need to strengthen measures already taken or proposed, and take action in areas that have not yet been addressed. This includes improving fuel and electricity efficiency, addressing non-CO2 emissions, reducing distortions in the economy through carbon pricing, and transitioning to clean and well-designed transport options. We propose an eight-point action plan—covering all sectors of the economy—that the Mexican government can follow to achieve the necessary reductions.

Read more online at http://www.wri.org/publication/achieving-mexicos-goals.

Mexico has set a goal of generating 35 percent of its electricity

from clean energy sources by 2024.62 Current clean electricity

generation stands at 19 percent. Achieving the goal will require

90 TWh of clean energy to be added to the grid by 202463—more

than Belgium’s total current electricity generation.64 In April 2016,

Mexico concluded its first Clean Energy Auction, where 1,860 MW

of new solar power was awarded.65

24 |

Republic of KoreaGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015








NDC Reduce GHG emissions by 37% by 2030, relative to projected emissions

Cancun pledge Reduce GHG emissions by 30% by 2020, relative to projected emissions

Long-term GHG target The Republic of Korea has not formally communicated a long-term GHG target

Emissions peak year The Republic of Korea has not formally communicated a GHG emissions peak year







783 MtCO2e


851 MtCO2e



688 MtCO2e

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100

200

300

400

500

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700

800

900

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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Year



The Republic of Korea reported that its level of technological

sophistication72 regarding domestic new and renewable energy is

about 81.7 percent that of advanced countries.73


In 2015, the Republic of Korea officially launched a nationwide emissions trading scheme (ETS) to help meet its NDC goals.66 The ETS, which is the second largest in the world after the European Union ETS, is intended to cover nearly two-thirds of the country’s domestic GHG emissions.67 The remaining emissions will likely be covered using international market mechanisms.68 The ETS is divided into three phases with differing levels of allowances per phase, and includes a multitude of companies representing several economic sectors.

The Republic of Korea has also sought to turn national action on climate change into a strategic business opportunity. Through its New Energy Industry Activation and Core Technology Development Strategy,69 the Korean government has actively worked to promote the research, development, and commercialization of photovoltaics, wind power, and fuel cells.70 Since the launch of the strategy, the Korean government has initiated 12 major policy and incentive programs, such as advanced microgrid technologies and energy efficiency initiatives, to help create a strategic blueprint to leverage green energy proliferation and optimize emissions-reduction strategies.

Despite these efforts at the national scale, at an international level, the Republic of Korea’s NDC has been criticized for lack of ambition and for using a business-as-usual scenario, which is weakened by the inherent uncertainty of future emissions projections.71

26 |

Russian FederationGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015









Cancun pledge Reduce GHG emissions by 15–25% by 2020, relative to 1990 levels

Long-term GHG target The Russian Federation has not formally communicated a long-term GHG target

Emissions peak year The Russian Federation has not formally communicated a GHG emissions peak year


+1.6 to +2.1 percent per annum between 2014 and 2030 (including the LULUCF sector)


+0.8 to +3.2 percent per annum between 2014 and 2020 (excluding the LULUCF sector)

Unconditional GHG target (incl. LULUCF) in 2030: 2,874-3,079 MtCO2e

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G E

mis

sion

s (M

tCO

2e)

Year

Conditional GHG target (excl. LULUCF) in 2020: 2,955–3,349 MtCO2e

GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF)

in 2014: 2,812 MtCO2e


in 2014: 2,299 MtCO2e



The Energy Strategy of Russia sets forth a goal of generating

4.5 percent of the country’s electricity from renewables,

excluding large-scale hydroelectric power, by 2020. This will be

complemented by the Russia Renewable Energy Program, which

seeks to mobilize private-sector financial capital for renewable

energy projects through policies, institutions, and finance.84

Currently, renewables account for less than 1 percent of the

electricity-generation fuel mix.85


Russia has a crucial role to play in the global effort to reduce GHG emissions given its ranking among the top five emitters,74 and the country’s particular vulnerability to climate change. Russia is located near the Arctic Circle, which contains the Arctic area that is warming twice as fast as the lower latitudes.75 The disproportionate warming can initiate permafrost melt and the release of large amounts of GHG emissions.76 Russia also has an extensive coastline that is threatened by sea level rise and attrition from wave activity during ice-free summer days,77 and is reportedly losing 468 square kilometers of land each year to erosion.78

The NDC submitted by the Russian government has faced some scrutiny because of its perceived vagueness.79 For instance, the NDC states that a 70–75 percent decrease in emissions below 1990 levels by 2030 “might” be a long-term mitigation target, depending upon the ability to maximally account for the absorption capacity of the country’s vast forest resources.80 However, the methodology of accounting for forest sequestration is not described.81 In addition, relying on bio-sequestration from Russian forest resources to the fullest extent may detract from other climate policy efforts. The NDC has also been criticized for its lack of ambition, possibly due in part to using 1990 as a baseline level of emissions. In 1990, emissions stood at approximately 4,000 MtCO2e but, following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991,82 emissions dropped roughly 50 percent by 2002.83 Although emissions have since been rising again, as of 2012, annual emissions were still lower than in 1990. Therefore, the wording in the NDC may allow for emissions to rise in the near future without threatening the ability of the Russian Federation to meet its NDC goals.

28 |

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G E

mis

sion

s in

clud

ing

LULU

CF (

MtC

O2e

)

Year


in 2012: 527 MtCO2e

HISTORICAL EMISSIONS

Saudi ArabiaGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015








NDC Saudi Arabia did not communicate a GHG target in its NDC

Cancun pledge Saudi Arabia did not put forward a Cancun pledge

Long-term GHG target Saudi Arabia has not formally communicated a long-term GHG target

Emissions peak year Saudi Arabia has not formally communicated a GHG emissions peak year


Not applicable


Not applicable



Saudi Arabia is pursuing some climate actions, which are set against the backdrop of the country’s goals to diversify the economy. For example:

In 2008, the National Energy Efficiency Program was launched, aiming to increase energy efficiency by 30 percent from 2005 levels by 2030. Currently the program focuses on three sectors—industry, building, and transportation—that collectively account for 90 percent of the country’s energy demand.86

In 2012, the Renewable Energy Program was announced by the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renew-able Energy (KACARE), the key institution for renewable energy-related research in the country. KACARE set a target of 23.9 GW of renewable energy by 2020 and 54 GW by 2032,87 mostly relying on solar power (41 GW) but also on wind, biomass, and geothermal generation. However, with the fall in oil prices in January 2015, the 2032 goal was pushed back to 2040.88

In 2015, a demonstration carbon capture and storage project was launched in Saudi Arabia for pilot testing and assessing the feasibility of carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technology.89

In 2016, Vision 2030 was approved by Saudi Arabia’s cabinet. It is a package of economic and social policies designed to reduce the country’s dependence on oil exports and diversify its sources of revenue.

Despite these actions, Saudi Arabia is the only G20 country not to put forward a GHG target for 2030.

Saudi Arabia plans to install 9.5 GW of renewable energy by

2030 under its Vision 2030 program. However, this target

has been significantly scaled back from the original target

of achieving 41 GW of solar power that was announced four

years ago.90 This amounts to a 77 percent reduction from the

original target.

30 |

South AfricaGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015








NDC A target for GHG emissions to be in the range of 398 to 614 MtCO2e between 2025 and 2030

Cancun pledge Reduce GHG emissions by 34% by 2020 and by 42% by 2025, both relative to projected emissions in the respective years

Long-term GHG target South Africa has not formally communicated a long-term GHG target

Emissions peak year South Africa communicated that its GHG emissions will peak between 2020 and 2025, plateau for approxi-mately a decade and decline in absolute terms thereafter


–1.2 to +0.9% per annum between 2010 and 2030



-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G E

mis

sion

s in

clud

ing

LULU

CF (

MtC

O2e

)

Year

Conditional GHG target in 2020:583 MtCO2e

Conditional GHG target for 2025 to 2030: 398–614 MtCO2eGHG emissions

in 2010: 518 MtCO2e



In February 2016, South Africa opened the continent’s first solar-

powered airport. George Airport, which serves over 600,000

passengers annually, has launched a clean energy project which,

during its first phase, will contribute around 40 percent of the

airport’s electricity needs. Once completed, the airport is expected

to be totally independent of the national grid.95


Like most developing economies, South Africa’s response to climate change developed in the context of eliminating poverty and eradicating inequality. However, despite these challenges, in recent years the country has emerged as a leader in renewable energy. Since 2011, investments in renewable energy have exceeded R194 billion (US$14 billion), with total installed capacity standing at 7 GW as of mid-2016.91 This makes South Africa the largest producer of renewable energy on the African continent. In 2016, Eskom (the national utility) received a major boost in the form of a US$1.34 billion loan from the African Development Bank to expand and strengthen its transmission network.92 This will enable Eskom to overcome some of the technical problems that have historically plagued transmission and allow more renewables onto the grid. Given the scope and scale of new projects coming online, South Africa appears to be on course to achieve its renewable target of 17.8 GW by 2030.93 Despite tremendous progress on renewables, more than 90 percent of the country’s electricity still comes from coal. This means that the country has one of the “dirtiest” grids, generating some of the highest GHG emissions from electricity (on a per kilowatt-hour basis) in the world.

In 2017, South Africa looks set to become the second BRICS nation and the first African nation to introduce a tax aimed at reducing GHG emissions. Next January, the country will implement a carbon tax of R120/tCO2e (US$8.5/tCO2e). The tax will be introduced with complementary measures, such as a reduction in the electricity levy and recycle revenue schemes.94

32 |

TurkeyGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015








NDC Reduce GHG emissions by 21% by 2030, relative to projected emissions

Cancun pledge Turkey did not communicate a GHG target

Long-term GHG target Turkey has not formally communicated a long-term GHG target

Emissions peak year Turkey has not formally communicated a GHG emissions peak year




Not applicable

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G E

mis

sion

s in

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ing

LULU

CF (

MtC

O2e

)

Year



408 MtCO2e



Turkey has a goal to increase the share of renewable energy in

total electricity generation to 30 percent by 2023.101 In 2013,

renewables accounted for 29 percent of Turkey’s electricity

generation.102 Energy demand in the country is expected to

increase by around six percent per annum until 2023.103


Turkey’s total GHG emissions more than doubled between 1990 and 2007.96 And, with a rapidly growing economy, Turkey has become one of the fastest growing energy markets in the world. Over the last decade, Turkey has been second only to China in terms of natural gas and electricity demand growth. Moreover, due to limited domestic energy resources, the country has become dependent on energy imports, primarily oil and gas.97

Over the next four years, the Turkish government is planning to double its coal power capacity, which will make the country the world’s third-largest investor in fossil fuels. Plans for 80 new plants, if implemented, will nearly quintuple the total number of coal-fired power plants relative to the 22 currently online.98 Given these new investments in fossil fuels, it is unsurprising that Turkey’s 2030 GHG mitigation goal would result in the country more than doubling its GHG emissions again over the next 15 years, from 408 MtCO2e in 2014 to 929 MtCO2e in 2030. Despite this anticipated increase in fossil-fuel use, Turkey has also stated its intention to increase investments in renewables, planning to generate 10 GW of electricity from solar and 16 GW from wind by 2030. In 2014, the country generated 14 MW of electricity from solar and 3 GW from wind.99 Turkey’s renewables targets will be implemented under the framework of the country’s National Strategy on Climate Change and National Climate Change Action Plan, among other policies.100

34 |

United StatesGDP IN 2015 POPULATION IN 2015









Cancun pledge Reduce GHG emissions by 17% by 2020, relative to 2005 levels

Long-term GHG target The United States communicated that its 2025 target is consistent with a straight line emission reduction pathway from 2020 to deep, economy-wide emission reductions of 80% or more by 2050

Emissions peak year The United States has not formally communicated a GHG emissions peak year


–1.7 to –1.9% per annum between 2014 and 2030



Unconditional GHG target in 2030: 4,810–4,943 MtCO2e

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G E

mis

sion

s in

clud

ing

LULU

CF (

MtC

O2e

)

Year


6,108 MtCO2e




Since 2007, the U.S. economy has grown by 10 percent while

primary energy consumption has fallen by 2.4 percent.111


As outlined in its 2013 Climate Action Plan, the United States is aiming to cut GHG emissions, prepare the nation for climate change impacts, and lead international efforts to address global climate change.104 Since then, the federal government, Congress, states, and local governments have all taken action contributing to these efforts. Specific actions include:

POWER: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is continuing to provide states with tools and support to comply with the Clean Power Plan (CPP) and cut emissions from their power sectors. Despite the U.S. Supreme Court issuing a temporary stay on the CPP, many states have affirmed that their plans to comply with the CPP remain unchanged, and numerous utilities have stated that they will continue to reduce carbon pollution.105 In December 2015, Congress voted to extend the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind, and the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar projects.

BUILDINGS: Between January and August 2016, the U.S. Department of Energy finalized efficiency stan-dards for a number of different equipment and appliance categories, including central air conditioners, heat pumps, and ceiling fans, among others.106

TRANSPORTATION: Building on the GHG and fuel-efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles (2012–2025) and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (2014–2018), in August 2016, EPA and the U.S. Department of Transportation finalized additional standards for trucks between 2018 and 2027.107

METHANE EMISSIONS: In June 2016, EPA finalized standards that address methane leakage from new and modified sources in the oil and gas industry.108

HYDROFLUOROCARBONS (HFCS): Building on its actions on HFCs in 2015, in April 2016, EPA proposed new rules to ban even more of the most potent HFC uses while also expanding the current list of climate-friendly alternatives.109 The United States is also working with the international community to amend the Montreal Protocol to include a phase-down of HFC production and consumption in 2016.110 Read more online at http://www.wri.org/publication/delivering-us-climate-commitment-10-point-plan-toward-low-carbon-future.

36 |

REFERENCE GUIDE

Countries’ GDP statistics and population statistics and GHG emissions per capita are sourced from the World Bank’s Open Data portal, which is accessible at http://data.worldbank.org/.

Countries’ 2012 GHG emissions and 2012 GHG emissions per capita are sourced from the CAIT Climate Data Explorer, which is accessible at http://cait.wri.org/.

Countries’ emissions peak years and long-term GHG targets are sourced from official government documents, such as INDCs, national planning reports, and development strategies. For more specifics on the information sources for each country, please see the WRI working paper Translating Targets into Numbers: Quantifying the Greenhouse Gas Targets of the G20 Countries, accessible at http://www.wri.org/publication/translating-targets-into-numbers.

Countries’ emissions trajectory graphics are developed using a multistep process that involves: reviewing the G20 countries’ Cancun pledges and NDCs, gathering historical emissions data, calculating the target level of emissions, and calculating the average annual rate of emissions change required to meet countries’ GHG targets. For the full methodology, and all underlying assumptions, please see the WRI working paper Translating Targets into Numbers: Quantifying the Greenhouse Gas Targets of the G20 Countries, accessible at http://www.wri.org/publication/translating-targets-into-numbers.

Countries’ historical emissions, from 1990 to 2010/12/13/14 (depending on the country) are sourced from official sources, such as National Inventory Reports, National Communications, Biennial Update Reports, and Biennial Reports. The historical emissions presented for each country matches the scope and coverage of the GHG targets included the country’s Cancun pledge and NDC. For more specifics on the emissions data sources for each country, please see the WRI working paper Translating Targets into Numbers: Quantifying the Greenhouse Gas Targets of the G20 Countries, accessible at http://www.wri.org/publication/translating-targets-into-numbers.

Countries’ target level of emissions are calculated using equations that are related to the target type (for example, base year target, baseline scenario target, trajectory target, etc.). For these equations, please see the WRI working paper Translating Targets into Numbers: Quantifying the Greenhouse Gas Targets of the G20 Countries, accessible at http://www.wri.org/publication/translating-targets-into-numbers.

Countries’ priorities and recent developments are sourced from WRI/OCN research papers, news reports, and expert reviews, with all citations provided as endnotes.

NOTE: The term “NDCs” is used throughout this publication for consistency. However, some of the G20 countries have still to deposit their instrument of ratification, acceptance, or approval to the Paris Agreement. Until these countries do so, their post-2020 climate action plans remain INDCs.


GLOSSARY OF TERMS

BAU Business-as-Usual

BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa

Conditional The achievement of the target is partially or wholly dependent on the activities of other countries and/or on international support

FYP Five-Year Plan

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GHG Greenhouse Gas

HFC Hydrofluorocarbons

INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution

LULUCF Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry

NDC Nationally Determined Contribution

Unconditional The achievement of the target is not dependent on the activities of other countries and/or on international support

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ENDNOTES1. Bronstein, Hugh. 2015. “Don’t Lie To Me Argentina–False

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3. Energia Estrategica. 2016. “Se Realizó la Primera Reunión del Gabinete Nacional de Cambio Climático.” August 16. Accessible at: http://www.energiaestrategica.com/se-realizo-la-primera-re-union-del-gabinete-nacional-de-cambio-climatico/.

4. Dube, Ryan. 2015. “Argentina to Remove Export Taxes on Some Agricultural Products.” The Wall Street Journal. December 14. Accessible at: http://www.wsj.com/articles/argentina-to-re-move-export-taxes-on-some-agricultural-products-1450100855.

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6. http://renewables.seenews.com/news/argentinas-1-gw-auction-gets-6-3-gw-of-wind-and-solar-bids-538793.

7. In 2011, the Clean Energy Future Legislation was passed by Australia’s House of Representatives to put a price on carbon emissions. The carbon-pricing mechanism was in place from July 2012 to July 2014, and then repealed under the Coalition Government.

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CLIMATE EXPERTS MEDIA CONTACTS

Paula Caballero

Global Director, Climate Program, World Resources Institute

Rhys Gerholdt

Communications Manager

[email protected] +1 202-341-1323

Taryn Fransen

Project DirectorOpen Climate Network, World Resources Institute

Jessica Brand

Communications Officer

[email protected] +1 202-729-7887

Paula leads WRI’s global staff

and partners on issues related

to international climate action.

Taryn leads the Open Climate Network, an independent climate policy-tracking coalition for which WRI serves as the secretariat.

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