ncondezi coal company · main project ncondezi project –licences 804l & 805l (100% owned)...
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Ncondezi Coal CompanyInvestor Presentation
Africa Mining Congress, January 2012
January, 2012
© 2012 Ncondezi Coal Company – All Rights Reserved
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Overview of Ncondezi Coal Company
3
Ncondezi Coal Company Shareholder Structure
Strata Ltd
45%
Free Float
49%
Management EBT
6%1 As at January 25, 20122 Definitive Feasibility Study3 As at December 21, 2011
Description Ncondezi is an AIM listed coal exploration and
development company with 4 licences in the
Tete province of Mozambique
Share price (GBp) 61.501
Shares 121m
Market cap. £74m (US$110m)
Net cash c.$30m – as at January 2012
Main project Ncondezi Project – licences 804L & 805L
(100% owned)
Exploration status Completing DFS2 by Q3 2012
JORC coal resource 1,661Mt3
Mining method Open pit
Target first production Q4 2014 / Q1 2015
Target production Up to 10Mtpa saleable product
Target coal product Export thermal coal – c.6,300 kcal/kg AD,
sulphurc.1%, c.22% ash
Potential metallurgical product to be further
confirmed
Ncondezi Management & Board
Name Position
Graham Mascall CEO
Nigel Walls COO
Manish Kotecha CFO
Hanno Pengilly Corporate Development
Dwight Jefferys Chief Geologist
David Eshmade Country Manager
Richard Stuart Non-Executive Chairman
Estevão Pale Non-Executive Director
Colin Harris Non-Executive Director
Mark Trevan Non-Executive Director
Nigel Sutherland Non-Executive Director
Top Institutional
shareholders
Name Holding
Henderson 7.0%
Investec 6.2%
Spearpoint 5.9%
Evergreen 5.0%
JPMorgan 1.5%
M&G 1.5%
Key Milestones Timetable
4
1 Order of Magnitude2 Environmental and Social Impact Assessment study
Extension of Ncondezi Project licences Feb 2010
Maiden JORC classification Feb 2010
Scoping Study completed Apr 2010
IPO (US$52m) Jun 2010
Placing of US$36.5m Jan 2011
5% strategic Chinese partner investment Jan 2011
Completion of DFS drilling Sep 2011
Completion of OoM1 greenfield rail and port study Sep 2011
Completion of Phase I power study Dec 2011
Completion of Phase I coal gasification study Dec 2011
Interim resource update Dec 2011
Infrastructure agreement signed with Rio Tinto Jan 2012
Additional resource updates Q1 2012
Update on coking coal potential Q1 2012
Coal gasification burn tests completion Q2 2012
Completion of Phase II power study Q3 2012
DFS completion Q3 2012
ESIA2 completion Sep 2012
Begin project financing discussions H2 2012
Mining licence application H2 2012
Initiate mine construction H1 2013
First coal production H1 2015
Completed Upcoming
Mozambique is an Attractive Environment for Investment
Political and economical stability
Attractive mining environment
5
One of Africa’s fastest growing economies
Politically stable since the end of civil war in 1992
Considered successful example of post-conflict reconciliation
President re-elected in elections in October 2009
Key mining sector ministers reappointed for further 5 years
High inflows of Foreign Direct Investment
Strong commercial links with South Africa as its main trading partner
Strong resource development and investment track record
BHP – Mozal US$2 billion
Kenmare – Moma US$500 million
Sasol Gas Pipeline US$1.2 billion
Vale – Moatize Project US$1.3 billion
Rio/Tata Steel – Benga Project US$516 million
Established and transparent licence granting process
Straight forward transition from exploration to mining licences
Realistic/attractive fiscal regime
Mozambican Coal Story – Heating Up
6
Large scale projects being developed in Mozambique
Coal development concentrated in the Tete Province
Potential to export over 70Mtpa of coking and thermal coal by
2020
Significant mining, power and steel companies already
committed to developing projects
Coal development driving major transport infrastructure
expansion for additional coal capacity
Existing capacity only 5Mtpa
Vale approved US$4.4Bn expansion on Nacala corridor
Rio Tinto leading development of new transport corridor
Coal potential motivating considerable consolidation of coal
projects in the region
Rio Tinto completed US$4.2bn Riversdale acquisition in
2011
Revuboe next?
Potential for up to US$20bn to be invested in the region in
the 10 years leading up to 2020
Coal Projects in Mozambiqe
Company Project
Target
production
(Mtpa)
First coalEstimated
Capex
Vale Moatize 20 2011 3,950
Rio Tinto +
Tata SteelBenga 10 2012 +5161
Rio TintoZambeze
+ Tete East+16 2016 n/a
Jindaal Songa c.5 2012 200
Nippon +
PoscoRevuboe 5 - 8 2015/2016 n/a
Ncondezi Ncondezi 10 2015 365
ENRC Estima n/a 2015 n/a
Beacon Hill Minas Moatize 2 2012 n/a
Note: based on company and public information1 Capex for c.3Mtpa phase I operation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Exp
ort
Co
al
Pro
du
cti
on
(M
tpa)
Beacon Hill
Revuboe
Ncondezi
Rio-Tete East
Rio-Zambeze
Rio-Benga
Vale - Moatize II
Vale - Moatize I
Mozambican Coal Projects Production Ramp Up
Note: Excludes production projections for companies where there is limited publicly available information, including: Jindal, ENRC, Coal India, Essar, ETA Star, etc.
Ncondezi Project – Ideally Located Close to Existing
Projects and Rail Infrastructure
7
Ncondezi Project – 6 Discreet Coal Blocks Identified
8
804L
805L
West Block
Central Block
River Block
East Block
South Block
North Block
North East Block
Mozambique Well Positioned for Global Markets
9
Ncondezi Project - DFS Timetable Summary
10
Sep-2011:DFS drilling complete
Q4 2011 to Q1 2012:
Resource update
Q4 2011: Coal washability
test work complete
Q1 2012 to Q3 2012:
Mine, plant and cost
optimisation
Sep-2010: Initiation of
DFS Work Programme
Q3 2012:
Completion
of DFS
Ncondezi Project - DFS Programme Update
Drilling complete
Over 306 new holes have been drilled (+52,000m of drilling)
Closer spaced drilling from 1km down to 350m grid
4,700 samples sent to laboratories for wash tests
Updated resource model in progress
South, North and Central blocks complete
East, West and River blocks expected in Q1 2012
Optimisation programmes initiated
Main optimisation programmes are:
Wash plant
Mine design
Cost
Targeting completion in Q3 3012
DFS study target completion end Q3 2012
Target to confirm viability of large scale open pit export thermal
coal mine
Fully funded to complete study
11
Ncondezi Project – Latest JORC Coal Resources Resource update announced on 12 December, 2011
3 of 6 coal blocks updated – South, North and Central blocks
Total updated resource of 1.7Bt
Results suggest final updated resource will be larger than
maiden 1.8Bt resource classified in Feb 2010
Coal zones occur at or near surface on all three coal blocks
More than 1.4Bt occurs at depths of less than 250m below
surface
Average coal zone thicknesses of between 26m to 86m
Updated South Block resource
42% larger than maiden JORC coal resource
41% increase in measured and indicated coal resources to
605Mt
Coal zones identified at surface and extend beyond 300m
810Mt occur at depths of less than 250m below surface
Potential products
An export thermal coal with c.20% ash.
A domestic thermal coal product consisting of a high to low
volatile matter and +30% ash
Currently investigating domestic and international market for low
volatile coals for gasification
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Updated Ncondezi Project JORC Coal Resource
Total Tonnes In-Situ Resources (Mt)
Block Volatile Matter Indicated Inferred Total
South Block High 243 115 358
Low 362 128 490
Low + High 605 243 848
North Block High 134 185 319
Low 32 54 86
Low + High 166 239 405
Central Block High 92 316 408
Total High 469 616 1,085
Low 394 182 576
Low + High 863 798 1,661
Notes:
TTIS = Total Tonnes In-Situ coal resource (GTIS resources with geological loss factors applied)
Indicated resources are defined within areas where the spacing of boreholes with raw coal quality data is
approximately 500 metres. Extrapolation of these areas is limited to approximately 250 metres
Inferred resources are defined within areas where the spacing of boreholes with raw coal quality data is
approximately 2,000 metres. Extrapolation of these areas is limited to approximately 1,000 metres
"Low Volatile" coals have been devolatilised by igneous intrusions. Studies by Ncondezi indicate that
these coals may be economic
South Blocks - TTIS were estimated from the GTIS tonnages by applying a Geological Loss of 10% to
Indicated resources and 15% to Inferred resources
Mozambican Thermal Coal Potential
13
Ncondezi Target Vale Riversdale
Project Ncondezi Project Moatize Benga
CV GAR (kcal/kg) c.6,000 <6,000 6,000
Ash % ad c.22 23 24
Sulphur % c.1.0 N/A 0.6
Total Moisture % ar c.8.0 9.0 7.0
FOB Product Richards Bay Newcastle Kalimantan
Country South Africa Australia Indonesia
CV GAR (kcal/kg) 6,300 6,300 4,100 – 5,900
Ash % ad 15 13 5 – 15
Sulphur % 1.0 0.7 0.2 – 1.0
Total Moisture % ar 8.7 8.1 26.6 – 40.0
Potential Mozambique Export Thermal Products
Seaborne Thermal Product Benchmarks
Mozambican thermal coals characterised by high CV and
ash contents
Market for Mozambican spec thermal coals is growing
Modern power stations have capacity to burn coals with a
wider range of heat and ash characteristics
Most new power stations built in the growing economies
of Asia
China’s entry into the seaborne market has increased
demand and eroded the discount to traditional coals from
SA and Australia
Growth being driven by increasing coal demand from
China and India where there is also an emphasis on
lowering generation costs and diversify coal supplies
Australia now exporting coals with ash content between
18-28% and reducing calorific values down to
5,300kcal/kg (NAR)
IHS McCloskey launched Australian 5,500kc NAR FOB
marker in Dec 2011 following significant increases in
trading
South Africa exporting coals with up to 30% ash and
5,300-5,400kcal/kg (NAR) mainly geared towards India
5,500kcal
(NAR)
6,000kcal
(NAR)
Diff as 6,000kcal
(NAR)
Date US$ US$ %
Apr-11 98.6 122.34 14.78
May-11 100.88 118.4 8.35
Jun-11 103.45 119 6.15
Jul-11 101.85 120.08 8.97
Aug-11 102.59 118.95 7.04
Sep-11 104.66 122.15 7.98
Oct-11 102.26 118.81 7.25
Nov-11 96.48 113.8 8.55
McCloskey Newcastle FOB markers - monthly av.
Source: IHS McCloskey – Dec 2011
Coking Coal Update and Strategy
Work completed to date
2 LD scout holes drilled in Q4 2010
LD hole 5001 identified coal with reasonable swells and rogas (see table opposite)
South and East block models currently being investigated – completion end Q1 2012
Resource model will highlight areas of potential for coking coal
Areas that demonstrate good potential for coking coal will be followed up with a detailed LD drill programme
Timing likely to be after resource model has been completed – Q1 2012
Metallurgical test results from LD holes would be expected in Q2 2012
Results will confirm potential
14
Existing Transport Corridors Update
Coal export options
15
Beira Nacala Chinde
575km c.885km 400km
Distance to port
Sena railway to Port of Beira
Sena line recently refurbished between Moatize and Port of
Beira
Berth 8 being refurbished for initial production from Vale and
Rio Tinto of 5Mtpa starting H2 2011
New coal terminal at Beira with expanded rail network for
between 18-24Mtpa planned by Mozambican Government
Connect Nacala railway line and port to Moatize
Natural deep water port with potential capacity of +30Mtpa
Requires c.200km of new railway line to connect to Moatize
US$4.4Bn upgrade announced by Vale in November 2011 to
increase capacity to 18Mtpa
Vale and Malawian Government sign agreement for new rail
through Malawi in April 2011
Target completion in 2014
Barge down the Zambezi and trans ship from Chinde
Technical studies show that barging is feasible
Initial capacity of 3Mtpa ramping up to 20Mtpa
EIA completed in Q2 2011 found that barging coal will cause
no significant environmental damage
Studies being lead by Rio Tinto
Potential for Middlings and Low Volatile Coal Products
Being Investigated Production of export thermal product results in lower grade coal by-product or
“middlings” which could be suited to several value accretive processes
Fuel for coal fired power plant
Coal gasification - to produce diesel fuel, methanol, glycol, hydrogen and or
fertilisers
Burn tests being undertaken at LURGI
Tests evaluate relevant coal properties for coal gasification process
Expected completion in Q1 2012
A prefeasibility study on power production using coal middlings from the
Ncondezi Project was completed in November 2011
Phase I power plant of 650MW
Discussions with local power utility already underway for reserved capacity on
new 6,000MW CESUL power line from Tete to South Africa via Maputo
Ncondezi is undertaking a definitive feasibility study on a 3,200MW coal fired
power plant
Report due in Q3 2012
16
CESUL Power Project
Environmental and Social Responsibility
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“Environment, Social, Health and Safety responsibilities are integral to the way we do business”
Environmental Management Plan approved by Ministry of
Environmental Affairs in Jan 2009
Applies to all 4 exploration licences
Socio-economic baseline study completed Dec 2010
Full time Community Liaison Officer appointed in Tete
ESIA to be completed in Sep 2012
Important part of the DFS and standalone requirement for mining
licence application
ESIA work to be carried out by independent local and international
consultants
Sustainable projects budgeted for 2011 include:
Provision of water bore holes
A rural health post
Bicycle ambulance programme
Bursaries for four students to attend university abroad
Key Highlights
18
Demand for thermal coal remains robust
Mozambique geographically positioned to service
growth markets in Asia
Sizeable resource identified with additional
potential
Fully funded to complete DFS on Ncondezi Project
Target completion of DFS in Q3 2012
Coking coal potential to be assessed in Q1 2012
Infrastructure agreement signed with Rio Tinto
Access to 10Mtpa of capacity
No additional funds required
Assess other value creating options
Corporate opportunities
Power/Coal gasification
Contact Details
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General enquiries:
Ncondezi Servces (UK) Ltd
Tel: +44 (0) 207 183 5402
Fax: +44 (0) 207 183 5411