ncfef - nc 2016 election dynamics
TRANSCRIPT
2014 Election Updates & Insights
NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and analysis on
candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact North Carolina’s political landscape.
Joe Stewart Executive Director
[email protected] (919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF
2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)
CVB = voters partisan disposition based on statewide races since 2008 in which
candidates ran with party affiliation.
This is the voter party-preference topographical map of North Carolina,
shows state’s partisan geography.
2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)
« Rural (GOP) versus Urban (DEM)
« Suburbs full of ‘swingers’
« Voting pattern factors also emerging in
North Carolina: age (esp. Millennials),
ethnicity, gender, nativity
Dr. Rebecca Tippett
NC Demographer UNC Population Center
Generational Composition of NC Electorate in 2016 By 2016, North Carolina is projected to have 7.85 million adults, with the following p r o j e c t e d g e n e r a t i o n a l breakdown: Greatest ( – 1927): 82,800 Silent (1928-45): 849,400 Boomers (1946-64): 2,329,500 Gen X (1965-81): 2,273,700 Millennial (1982-04): 2,317,000
NC Voter Registration Dec 2008 – Aug 2015
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
DEM GOP LIB UNA
-244,919
-64,702
+22,878
+369,630
2008: 6,282,575 2015: 6,365,462
+82,887 Dec 2014: 6,631,398
50% of NC Registered Voters Live in 13 Counties
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
White Black Am Indian Other Hispanic Male Female 46.55% 58.07% 18.19% 65.95% 63.73% 49.62% 50.20%
Democrats Republicans Libertarians Unaffiliated 51.26% 46.38% 56.78% 52.36%
NC Counties with Population Loss, 2010-2014
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
NC Population Growth Not Even 49 NC counties have lost population since 2010
(2014 Census Bureau Data)
STRONG DEM (34) LEAN DEM (2) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)
29 L. Hall
Durham 114 Fisher
Buncombe 54 Reives
Lee 118 Presnell
Yancey 55 Brody
Union 86 Blackwell
Burke 110 Hastings
Gaston 96 Adams*
Catawba
106 Cunningham
Mecklenburg 42 Lucas
Cumberland 44 Glazier (NR)
Cumberland 49 Pendleton*
Wake 14 Cleveland#
Onslow 82 Pittman
Cabarrus 77 Warren
Rowan 69 Arp
Union
102 Carney
Mecklenburg 5 Hunter Hertford COMP (11) 9 B. Brown
Pitt 36 Dollar Wake 15 Shepard
Onslow 98 Bradford*
Mecklenburg 13 McElraft
Carteret
31 Michaux
Durham 32 Baskerville
Vance 66 Goodman
Richmond 45 Szoka
Cumberland 40 Avila
Wake 109 Bumgardner
Gaston 91 Holloway#
Stokes 81 Brown#
Davidson
33 Gill
Wake 72 Hanes
Forsyth 39 Jackson
Wake 63 Ross
Alamance 37 Stam
Wake 26 Daughtry
Johnston 74 Conrad
Forsyth 87 Robinson
Caldwell
99 Moore
Mecklenburg 100 Cotham#
Mecklenburg 50 Meyer
Orange 53 Lewis
Harnett 62 Blust
Guilford 16 Millis#
Pender 104 Bishop*
Mecklenburg 76 Ford
Rowan
38 Lewis Holley
Wake 23 Willingham*
Edgecombe 119 Queen
Haywood 93 Jordan
Ashe 111 Moore
Cleveland 83 Johnson
Cabarrus 10 Bell
Wayne 95 Fraley
Iredell
60 Brockman*
Guilford 47 Graham
Robeson 2 Yarborough* Person 1 Steinburg
Chowan 75 Lambeth#
Forsyth 19 Davis
New Hanover 84 R. Turner
Iredell 89 Setzer
Catawba
58 Johnson*
Guilford 30 Luebke
Durham 22 Brisson
Bladen 65 Jones
Rockingham 88 Bryan
Mecklenburg 4 Dixon Duplin 17
Iler Brunswick 68
Horn Union
107 Alexander
Mecklenburg 43 Floyd
Cumberland 92 Jeter
Mecklenburg 3 Speciale Craven 25
Collins# Nash 59
Hardister Guilford 10
8 Torbett Gaston 94
Elmore Wilkes
56 Insko
Orange 21 L. Bell
Sampson 115 Ager*
Buncombe 51 Salmon*
Harnett 103 Brawley
Mecklenburg 61 Faircloth
Guilford 105 Schaffer
Mecklenburg 79 Howard
Davie
24 Farmer-
Butterfield Wilson
7 Richardson Franklin 6 Tine#
Dare 64 Riddell
Alamance 20 Catlin
New Hanover 52 Boles
Moore 97 Saine
Lincoln
48 Pierce
Scotland 18 Hamilton
New Hanover 8 S. Martin Wilson 11
6 B. Turner* Buncombe 11
2 Hager Rutherford 11
7 McGrady Henderson 85
Dobson McDowell
71 Terry
Forsyth 34 G. Martin
Wake 41 Adcock*
Wake 35 Malone
Wake 113 Whitmire
Transylvania 120 West
Cherokee 73 Zachary*
Yadkin
57 Harrison
Guilford 12 Graham
Lenoir 28 Langdon#
Johnston 80 Watford
Davidson
27 Wray
Northampton 11 D. Hall#
Wake *freshman #thinking about retiring? NR = not running in 2016
90 Stevens
Surry 70 Hurley
Randolph
101 Earle
Mecklenburg 46 Waddell
Columbus 67 Burr
Stanly 78 McNeill
Randolph
CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA
CVB for NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEM STRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)
28 Robinson
Guilford 21 Clark
Hoke 19 Meredith
Cumberland
8 Rabon# Brunswick 50
Davis Macon 24
Gunn Alamance 39
Rucho Mecklenburg
40 Waddell*
Mecklenburg
5 Davis Greene
1 Cook Beaufort
9 Lee* New Hanover 46
Daniel Burke 47
Hise Mitchell 31
Krawiec Forsyth
38 Ford
Mecklenburg 13 Smith*
Robeson 25 McInnis*
Richmond 15 Alexander* Wake 27 Wade
Guilford
2 Sanderson Pamlico 44
Cur\s Lincoln
14 Blue#
Wake 23 Foushee
Orange 18 Barefoot
Wake 10 B. Jackson#
Sampson 11 Newton
(NR) Wilson
45 Soucek
Watauga 35 Tucker
Union
20 McKissick
Durham 22 Woodard
Durham 12 Rabin
Harne`
6 Brown Onslow 48
Apodaca# Henderson 42
Wells* Catawba
4 Bryant Nash 37
J. Jackson Mecklenburg 17
Barringer (NR) Wake 41
Tarte Mecklenburg 36
Hartsell# Cabarrus 33
Bingham (NR) Davidson
3
Smith-‐Ingram* Edgecombe
16 Stein (NR)
Wake 26 Berger
Rockingham 43 Harrington
Gaston 30 Randleman
Wilkes
32 Lowe* Forsyth 49 Van
Duyn* Buncombe
*freshman #thinking about retiring? NR = not running in 2016
7 Pate Wayne 34
Brock Davie 29
Tillman Randolph
CVB for US CONGRESS 10 REP – 3 DEM STRONG DEM LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)
12 Adams*
Guilford 3 Jones
Pi`
13 Holding
Wake
10 McHenry
Gaston
1 Bu`erfield Wilson
8 Hudson Cabarrus
2 Ellmers Harne`
5 Foxx Watauga
4 Price Orange
7 Rouzer* Johnston
6 Walker* Guilford
11 Meadows
Macon
*freshman
9 Pi`enger Mecklenburg
North Carolina 2016 Election Dynamics
« President, US Sen, Gov on ballot in ‘battleground’ state = a LOT of political ads (candidates + outside groups) = high turnout?
« Turnout: 2000: 59% *2004: 64% *2008: 70% 2012: 68%
« Probable election landscape = Urban v. Rural, Suburbs in play « For Dem presidential candidate to win NC = 2008 voter coalition
of minorities, women and younger voters (Can Clinton do it?)
« Watch for ‘enthusiasm gap’ = one party’s base party voters dislike their party’s candidate(s) more than the other party’s base voters.
NC now significantly influenced by national trends and waves (non-native population = 50% … 20% of voters in NC < 10 years)
Ex: ISIS + Ebola > local issues (Education) = Tillis (GOP) win in 2014
Presidential Primary March 15 = NC will be a key win following Super Tuesday (March 1)
‘Regular’ Primary = May 3 … Voters = ‘didn’t you just ask us to vote?’
(likely no hotly contested Primary in US Senate, Gov or Council of State = low voter turnout & potential legislative incumbent upsets)
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: President
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: US Senate
« Rated among vulnerable GOP incumbents
« NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive
« 2016 = $200+ million in outside spending
« Suburbs = battleground
« Democrats don’t have a candidate yet
« NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive
« Suburbs = battleground
« 2016 = $100+ million in outside spending
« Likely to get ugly quick
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Exec Branch
Governor Roy Cooper ($3M)
Ken Spaulding Pat McCrory 56.62% ($2.4M)
Lt. Governor Linda Coleman ($48K) Dan Forest 50.08% ($247K) Attorney General (OPEN)
Sen. Josh Stein ($1.1M) Tim Dunn
Sen. Buck Newton ($200K) Sen. Tamara Barringer
Comm of Insurance W. Goodwin 51.9% ($360K) Heather Grant ($700)
State Auditor Beth Wood 53.71%
Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 53.79%
Comm of Labor Charles Meeker ($15K) Cherie Berry 53.26% ($15K)
Comm of Ag Steve Troxler 53.22%
Super of Public
Instruct June Atkinson 54.24%
State Treasurer Janet Cowell 53.83%
% = 2012 results
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: State Supreme Court
Voters will cast their
ballot as to whether or
not to retain Justice
Robert H. Edmunds (Guilford)
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Court of Appeals
Linda H. Stephens (Wake County)
1st Term Democrat
Robert H. Hunter (Guilford County)
1st Term (appointed 2015) Republican
Richard Dietz (Forsyth County)
1st Term (appointed 2014) Republican
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch
« Economy v. ISIS
« How bad a candidate
is Hillary Clinto?
« Who is the GOP
candidate?
« Is there a 3rd party
candidate?
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch
« Voter attitude (NC now more
influence by ‘national attitude’)
« Outside money
« Who best reaches the
‘undecideds’ (Suburban
Swingers)
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch
« Functioning Democratic Party?
« Factional fighting within GOP
« Campaignable legislative
outcomes from
GOP-controlled Gen Assembly
2014 Election Updates & Insights
Questions?
Joe Stewart Executive Director
[email protected] (919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF