nc mortgage trends - prosperity unlimited · nc mortgage trends matthew martin, ph.d. regional...
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![Page 1: NC Mortgage Trends - Prosperity Unlimited · NC Mortgage Trends Matthew Martin, Ph.D. Regional Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Confidential Information 2 The National](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070711/5ec7f4390874e9695b486ac8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
NC Mortgage TrendsMatthew Martin, Ph.D.
Regional Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
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Confidential Information 2
The National Picture: 2007 Foreclosures
Source: Realtytrac
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Confidential Information 3
National Mortgage Delinquency Rates
Seriously Delinquent Mortgages
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998:Q1 2000:Q1 2002:Q1 2004:Q1 2006:Q1 2008:Q1
0
5
10
15
20
25
Subprime Fixed Rate Mortgage
Subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgage
Prime Fixed Rate Mortgage
Prime Adjustable Rate Mortgage
Percent, NSA Percent, NSA
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics
Note: Serious delinquencies are loans 90+ days past due plus those in the process of foreclosure.
The National Picture: Delinquencies
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Confidential Information 4
The National Picture: 2/28 Default Rates
Source: Federal Reserve Board calculations using Loan Performance data
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Confidential Information 5
The National Picture: Cumulative Defaults
Cumulative Default Rates by Vintage
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Time in months
2007
20062005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Source: Federal Reserve Board calculations using Loan Performance data
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Confidential Information 6
Percent Full Documentation ABS 2_28
0
20
40
60
80
100
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Combined LTV ABS 2_28
70
75
80
85
90
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Federal Reserve Board calculations using Loan Performance data
Factor #1: Underwriting
Note: Fixed rate subprimes had better underwriting. (Not shown.)
Important because it means that ARMs not inherently riskier.
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Confidential Information 7
Factor #2: House Prices
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
OFHEO purchase-onlyS&P/Case-Shiller National S&P/Case-Shiller 10-city
Year-to-year percent change, NSA
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, OFHEO, Haver Analytics
Year-to-year percent change, NSA
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Confidential Information 8
7.431.72West Virginia
13.075.59National
8.724.08Virginia
11.083.75South Carolina
7.433.34North Carolina
8.556.08Maryland
10.676.09Washington, DC
% in Foreclosure
or REO
% of Owner Occupied
Houses that have
Subprime loans
7.431.72West Virginia
13.075.59National
8.724.08Virginia
11.083.75South Carolina
7.433.34North Carolina
8.556.08Maryland
10.676.09Washington, DC
% in Foreclosure
or REO
% of Owner Occupied
Houses that have
Subprime loans
Fifth District Subprime Summary
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Confidential Information 9
North Carolina Delinquencies
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Confidential Information 10
North Carolina Foreclosures
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Confidential Information 11
North Carolina Foreclosures
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Confidential Information 12
Subprime Mortgages by MSA
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Confidential Information 13
North Carolina: Number of Subprime Mortgages
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Confidential Information 14
North Carolina: Percentage of Owner-Occupied
Homes with Subprime Mortgages
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Confidential Information 15
North Carolina: % of Owner-Occupied Homes with
Subprime Mortgages 90+ days Delinquent
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Confidential Information 16
North Carolina: % of Owner-Occupied Homes with
Subprime Mortgages in Foreclosure or REO
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Confidential Information 17
North Carolina House Price Growth
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Confidential Information 18
North Carolina House Price Growth
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Confidential Information 19
North Carolina: Residential Permits
North Carolina
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
YoY %
Chg
U.S. North Carolina
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Confidential Information 20
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Confidential Information 21
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Confidential Information 22
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Confidential Information 23
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Confidential Information 24
Charlotte House Price Growth
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Confidential Information 25
Charlotte House Price Growth
Charlotte, NC
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
YoY %
Chg
U.S. Charlotte, NC
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Confidential Information 26
Charlotte Residential Permits
Charlotte, NC
-70.0-60.0-50.0-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.0
0.010.020.030.040.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
YoY %
Chg
U.S. Charlotte, NC
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Confidential Information 27
North Carolina Payroll Employment Growth
North Carolina
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
YoY %
Chg
U.S. North Carolina
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Confidential Information 28
North Carolina Unemployment Rate
North Carolina
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Percent
U.S. North Carolina
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Addendum: Alt-A Trends
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Confidential Information 30
2.620.33West Virginia
4.202.37National
4.842.45Virginia
2.820.97South Carolina
1.750.95North Carolina
2.833.07Maryland
2.325.50Washington, DC
% in Foreclosure
or REO
% of Owner Occupied
Houses that have
Alt-A loans
2.620.33West Virginia
4.202.37National
4.842.45Virginia
2.820.97South Carolina
1.750.95North Carolina
2.833.07Maryland
2.325.50Washington, DC
% in Foreclosure
or REO
% of Owner Occupied
Houses that have
Alt-A loans
Fifth District Alt-A Summary
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Confidential Information 31
Alt-A Mortgages by MSA
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Confidential Information 32
North Carolina: Number of Alt-A Mortgages
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Confidential Information 33
North Carolina: % of Alt-A Mortgages That Are
Non-Owner Occupied
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Confidential Information 34
North Carolina: Percentage of Owner-Occupied
Homes with Alt-A Mortgages
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Confidential Information 35
North Carolina: % of Owner-Occupied Homes with
Alt-A Mortgages 90+ days Delinquent
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Confidential Information 36
North Carolina: % of Owner-Occupied Homes with
Alt-A Mortgages in Foreclosure or REO
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