nbs-m016 contemporary issues in climate change and energy 2010

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NBS-M016 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy

2010

4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук

Energy Science Director CRed Project

HSBC Director of Low Carbon InnovationSection 5 Section 7 Section 8 Section 9

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4.1. CURRENT AND PROJECTED USAGE

Projected Saturation Population in 2050 -- 10000 M consumption averages current UK value Requirement in 2050 = 50 TW i.e. 5 x 1013 W.consumption reaches current USA value Requirement in 2050 = 100 TW

i.e. 10 times current demand

Range of forecasts 20 - 100 TW with a likely valuein range 30 - 50 TW (say 40 TW).

Country Energy Requirement

Population Per Capita

World 12.0 TW 6000 M 2.0 kW

USA 3.0 TW 300 M 10.0 kW

Europe 2.0 TW 350 M 5.7 kW

UK 0.3 TW 60 M 5.0 kW

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4.2 PROJECTED LIFESPAN OF RESOURCES

decades:- centuries: millennia:

projected average consumption of 40 TW annual consumption will be:- 1.25 x 1021 J

Compare this to the Current World Proven Reserves:-

Oil Reserves:- 5 x 1021 J Gas Reserves:- 4 x 1021 J Uranium:- 1 x 1021 J Coal Reserves:- 2.6 x 1022 J Uranium (Fast Breeder):- 1 x 1023 J Fusion (Deuterium):- 1 x 1030 J

D – D fusionCoal,Geothermal, D – T fusion, 232Th

235U, Tar sands,238U,

Oil ShalesOil, Gas,

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4.3 "RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES"

Orders of magnitude only

Practically Achievable:-

1010 - Tidal (i.e. 1 x 1010 to 1 x 1011)

1011 - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass; Wastes

1012 - Hydro; Wind; Waves

1013 – Solar

Projected demand is 40 TW – 4 x 1013 W

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Theoretical Practical Realised to date

TW GW GW

NON-SOLAR

Tidal 3 50 1 France, Russia, China

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GWGWTW

Realised to date

PracticalTheoretical

France, Russia, China

1503Tidal

NON-SOLAR

Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand

1060+30Geothermal

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GWGWTW

Realised to date


France, Russia, China

1503Tidal

NON-SOLAR

Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand

1060+30Geothermal

USA, Israel: third world

1.8 electrical 0.2 Active Solar

3000030000(on land)

SOLAR Direct

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Normal hot water circuit

Solar Circuit

Solar Pump

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Solar Gain (kWh/day)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 20 30 9 19 29 8 18 28 10 20 30 9 19 29 9 19 29 8 18 28 8 18 28 7 17 27 6 16 26 6 16 26 5 15 25 5 15 1 11 21 31 10

Day of Month

Solar

Gain

(kW

h)

December JanuaryFebruary MarchApril MayJune JulyAugust SeptemberOctober NovemberDecember

Solar Hot Water

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

kWh

/ d

ay

2006 - 07

2007 - 08


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4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES - Solar

House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles

- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

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TW GW GW

SOLAR Indirect

Wind 30 1000 47 and rising rapidly

USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 2200 MW in UK

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13


GWGWTW

Realised to date


USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 2200MW in UK

47 and rising rapidly

100030Wind

SOLAR Indirect

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GWGWTW

Realised to date


USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 3000 MW in UK

63 and rising rapidly

100030Wind

SOLAR Indirect

UK, Norway, Japan

0.01303Waves

USA0.00130030OTEC

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TW GW GW

Hydro 30+ 2000 400 USA, Brazil, Canada, Scandinavia, Switzerland, Malaysia etc.

Biomass/ Wastes

300 1000 10-100? Various

Brazil - Bioethanol

SOLAR Indirect

Hydrogen????

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The Star of the East

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country park

Approx 1km

International Airport

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energy station

floating farmers market

river walk & quay

(proposed residential development)

turbine viewing & display gallery

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R & D, factories of the future

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(country park)interactive

learning centreworking environmental organisations

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market

low carbon residential ring

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Star of the East

Alsop Architects

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View from Thorpe Station

The STAR will be 50% higher than the pylons which will be demolished

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5. CONSERVATION - BARRIERS

ENV-M558 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy

2009




HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

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5. CONSERVATION - BARRIERS

5.1 GOVERNMENTAL

• preference to support supply rather than conservation;

• long term historic memories, • consequential political overtones if they under estimate

future supply requirements.

• where grants have been made available, they have often been too late, and too restrictive - and deterred those who have made an investment in the past from doing so in the future.

• situation now changing - although somewhat restrictive

• Is the method adopted in US during the Carter Administration a preferential one?

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5.1 GOVERNMENTAL BARRIERS

• lack of / or inadequate legislation to promote conservation (2006

Building Regulations do address some issues, but they are too late and there are still loop holes - so encourages minimum compliance rather than promoting conservation.)

• delays in decision making favour supply rather than conservation

• reluctance at Local Government Level to implement tougher measures - e.g. Building Industry who argue against such measures - Exceptions:- Southampton City Council; Milton Keynes.

• reluctance to promote strategies which could cost Government votes at next election (e.g. higher taxation on petrol etc.) - many measures take a period longer than lifetime of Government to become effective.

• enactment of legislation which is has loose or incorrect wording:- 1947 Electricity Act in UK. Conservation Bill in US in 1979.

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5.2 VESTED INTERESTS

• manufacturing industries continuing to promote out of date products and/or energy wasteful products - or to give Pseudo-Conservation Information.

• retailers promoting products on the capital outlay, or other attributes, and not energy consumption.

• competition between supply industries leads them to promote their products which may not always be the most energy conserving - e.g. off peak heating with electricity. [less of a problem these days]

• scheduling of TV programs

• cowboy firms making unsubstantiated claims.

• preference to view Energy Conservation in terms of MONETARY saving rather than Resource saving.

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5.3 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

Incorporation of retrospective pollution controls usually INCREASES energy consumption.

e.g. Removal of SO2 leads to:-

a) reduced efficiency at power stations, hence increased CO2

b) as SO2 is converted even more CO2 is produced

c) Limestone required from Peak District etc.

d) Disposal of waste Gypsum

e) Additional Transport needed to power stations

FGD plant are large - comparable to size of power station (excluding cooling towers).

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5. CONSERVATION - DIFFICULTIES

5.4 PHYSICAL LIMITATIONS

• laws of thermodynamics limit efficiency of energy conversion.• climate affects energy consumption• geological resources in a country will affect utilisation of energy. e.g. it makes sense to use electricity for heating in Norway which has abundant hydro-electricity, but not in UK.

5.5 TECHNICAL PROBLEMS

• old buildings/appliances which have a long life so improvements in energy efficiency will take time to become effective.

• difficulty in making perfect machine

• difficulty in achieving high insulation standards in brick built buildings

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5.6 SOCIAL ATTITUDES

• desire for greater thermal comfort. Comfort temperatures have risen over last 30 years.

• desire for greater mobility.

• desire for smaller households in larger and individual buildings (unlike many other European Countries).

• come to depend on reliability of energy supply (contrast situation in late 50's).

• purchasing larger and more energy wasteful appliances -e.g. tumbler dryers, freezers etc.

• disregarding notices/adverts designed to promote energy conservation.

• short memories - previous high costs of energy are forgotten when energy becomes cheap.

• sliding back into old habits.• energy conservation not often seen as important as direct

investment even when the returns are much greater. • decisions made on impulse with little regard to energy used.

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The Behavioural Dimension

Electricity Consumption

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7No. people

Ave

rage

kW

h/m

onth

• Household size has little impact on electricity consumption.

• Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size.

• Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more.

• Education/Awareness is important

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5.7 ECONOMIC BARRIERS

• We expect a pay back for any investment in a short period

• Assessment of an Energy project depends not only on the rate of return we expect (allowing for inflation etc.) which is related to the Discount Rate, but on how fuel prices are seen to change in the future.

• In the mid 1970's, it was predicted by many that the REAL price of energy would at least double by the end of the century.

• In practice energy is now cheaper in real terms than in 1970's

• Widely fluctuating fuel prices, and expectations on return can create a STOP GO attitude towards rational spending on Energy saving projects.

• In Industry, Energy Saving has to compete with increased productivity.

• A new process which takes half the space of an old equivalent one, produces the same number of items in half the time would be favoured EVEN if it consumed 50-100% more in Energy (as labour costs would be reduced and profits increased because the price of Energy is TOO LOW).

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• The choice of a particular Discount Rate will load the dice in favour of a particular option if only Economics is used in decision making EVEN IF EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS ARE INCLUDED.

Fig. 5.1 Effect of Discount Rate on Economic Viability of Energy Projects

High Discount Rates favour Coal

Medium Discount Rates favour Nuclear

Low/zero/negative Discount Rates favour Conservation and Renewables

Discount Rate

Present Value

+ve-ve Ca

pit

al C

ost

s

coal

coal

nuclear

nuclear

Renewables/conservation

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Time

Energy Demand

Projection

1973

2004

Low growth

Technical fix

Business as Usual

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7. Conservation Possibilities


2010





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7. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES.

Technical Education Energy Management

Technical Measures will have limited impact on energy consumption if people are not educated to use energy wisely.

Energy Management is a key aspect in energy conservation

A good Energy Manager will:-

Assess Energy Demand - record keeping

Analyse Energy Demand - examine trends relating to physical factors

Advise on technical and other methods to promote energy conservation

Advertise and publicise ways to save energy

Account for energy consumed

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Significant saving are possible by reducing waste in conversion of energy to secondary fuels.

Significant savings are possible in some area in end use appliance efficiency - e.g. low energy light bulbs.

Effective Energy Conservation and Environmental Legislation may well see a rise in electricity consumption in the short term.

promotion of heat pumps - require electricity

industry switching to more efficient electrically driven processes. e.g. Case Hardening

move towards electric cars.?????

Hydrogen???????


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• Energy Conservation requires innovative “joined-up” thinking.

• Some of the best ideas come from individuals.

• What do you see as possibilities?

• Would a move to Hydrogen powered vehicles be viable in foreseeable future?

• What are the problems?


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8. UK Energy Consumption

Maxine Narburgh

CSERGE


2010





Kung Hei Fat Choi !Kung Hei Fat Choi !

Gong Xi Fa Cai !Gong Xi Fa Cai !

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Per Capita Consumption in Watts ~ 5 kW

8. UK Energy Consumption

The recent reductions are not as dramatic as appear above as total population has increased by 2.1 million since 2000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008

Domestic 816 882 902 1056 1060 1078 998 958 987

Transport 623 786 1076 1250 1207 1282 1310 1302 1272

Industry 1379 1069 855 797 769 735 713 690 662

Other 411 414 425 486 442 450 436 421 390

Conversion 1712 1565 1745 1680 1844 1635 1629 1549 1503

Total 4942 4716 5004 5270 5321 5180 5086 4921 4814

Non-Energy 240 165 249 277 241 270 261 212 220

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8. UK Energy Consumption (Watts/capita)

• Consumption is roughly 5 kW per capita• Industrial Consumption has declined• Transport Consumption has increased• Despite much improved insulation standards

domestic energy use has remained almost static

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UK Russia India Colombia Libya USA China

Production 4965 10748 566 2220 19377 7344 1564

Imports 187 -4796 129 -1414 -15248 3065 74

Total Supply 5152 5952 695 806 4129 10409 1638

Conversion/Distribution losses 1544 2007 206 136 1933 3245 581

Total Consumption 3608 3945 489 669 2196 7164 1057

Industry 721 1179 116 188 330 1344 436

Transport 1209 881 44 217 906 2861 106

Domestic 989 1250 279 122 403 1188 328

Commercial 416 296 9 42 n/a 962 54

Agriculture 20 90 9 51 27 76 41

Non-Energy 254 248 32 50 529 733 92

Imports/Exports 3.6% -80.6% 18.5% -175.4% -369.3% 29.4% 4.5%

% Conversion/Transmission Losses 30.0% 33.7% 29.6% 16.9% 46.8% 31.2% 35.5%

8. Comparative Energy Consumption (Watts/Capita)

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9. Generation of Electricity

Maxine Narburgh

CSERGE


2010





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9. Generation of Electricity - Conventional

Diagram illustrates situation with coal, oil, or nuclear

Gas Generation is more efficient - overall ~ 45%

Overall efficiency ~ 35%

Largest loss in Power Station

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9. Generation of Electricity - Conventional.

Pump

Multi-stage Turbine

Generator

Boiler

Condenser

Simplified Diagram of a “generating set”

includes boiler, turbine, generator, and condenser

Superheated Steam 563oC 160 bar

Steam at ~ 0.03 bar

Why do we condense the steam to water only to heat it up again?.

Does this not waste energy?

NO!!

But we must wait until the Thermodynamics section to understand why?

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9. Generation of Electricity - Conventional

Chemical Energy

Coal / Oil / Gas

Electrical Energy

Heat EnergyBoiler

Turbine

GeneratorMechanical Energy

Electricity used in Station

Power Station100 units

38 units

90 units

3 units

90%

95%

48%

41 units

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Why not use the heat from power station? - it is typically at 30oC?

Too cold for space heating as radiators must be operated ~ 60+oC

What about fish farming - tomato growing?

- Yes, but this only represent about 0.005% of heat output.

Problem is that if we increase the output temperature of the heat from the power station we get less electricity.

Does this matter if overall energy supply is increased?


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9. Generation of Electricity - CHP

Overall Efficiency - 73%

•Heat is rejected at ~ 90oC for supply to heat buildings.

•City Wide schemes are common in Eastern Europe

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1947 Electricity Act blinked our approach for 35 years into attempting to get as much electricity from fuel rather than as much energy.

Since Privatisation, opportunities for CHP have increased

on an individual complex basis (e.g. UEA), unlike Russia

A problem: need to always reject heat.

What happens in summer when heating is not required?

Need to understand basic thermodynamics


nbs-m016 contemporary issues in climate change and energy 2010

Documents

potential of energy

tw annual consumption

j gas reserves

j coal reserves

oil reserves

current world proven

projected average consumption

j fusion deuterium