nbc news surveymonkey toplines and methodology 6 27-7 3

7/25/2019 NBC News SurveyMonkey Toplines and Methodology 6 27-7 3

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2/6

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove No answer

6/277/3 28 22 11 38

6/206/26 30 22 12 35 1

6/136/19 30 21 12 37 1

6/66/12 29 22 12 36 1

5/306/5 27 24 12 37 1

5/235/29 27 23 12 37 -

5/16 5/22 27 23 13 36 1

5/9 5/15 28 23 13 35 1

5/25/8 28 23 12 36 1

4/255/1 27 24 13 36 1

4/18-4/24 26 24 13 37 1

4/11-4/17 28 24 12 37 1

4/44/10 27 23 13 37 1

3/28 4/3 28 24 13 35 1

3/21 3/27 27 24 13 35 1

3/14 3/20 27 24 13 35 1

3/7 3/13 27 23 13 36 1

2/29 3/6 27 23 12 37 1

2/22 2/28 27 23 12 37 1

2/15 2/21 26 22 12 39 -

2/8 2/14 26 24 12 38 1

2/1 2/7 27 23 12 38 1

1/25 1/31 25 22 12 40 1

1/18 1/24 26 24 14 36 -

1/11 1/17 26 22 12 40 1

1/4 1/10 23 22 12 42 1

12/28 1/3 23 25 12 40 1

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

Republican Democrat Independent No answer

6/277/3 28 34 37 1

6/206/26 28 35 36 26/136/19 28 34 36 2

6/66/12 28 35 36 1

5/306/5 29 35 36 1

5/235/29 28 33 37 1

5/165/22 29 34 35 1

5/9 5/15 28 35 35 1

5/2 - 5/8 32 35 31 2

4/25-5/1 28 36 35 1

4/18-4/24 28 35 36 1

4/11-4/17 29 34 35 1

4/44/10 30 34 35 1

3/28 4/3 29 35 35 2

3/21 3/27 30 33 36 2

3/14 3/20 30 36 32 23/7 3/13 31 35 33 2

2/29 3/6 32 36 31 2

2/22 2/28 31 35 33 2

2/15 2/21 31 35 33 1

2/8 2/14 30 35 33 2

2/1 2/7 30 35 33 2

1/25 1/31 31 34 33 2

1/18 1/24 28 34 36 1

1/11 1/17 31 34 33 2


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As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DONT KNOW FOR

PARTY] RepublicanParty

Democratic

Party Neither No answer

6/277/3 33 26 37 3

6/206/26 32 29 36 3

6/136/19 32 28 36 4

6/66/12 33 28 36 3

5/306/5 33 26 37 3

5/235/29 32 28 37 3

5/16 5/22 31 29 37 3

5/9 5/15 33 28 36 3

5/2 5/8 32 32 35 1

4/25-5/1 32 27 38 3

4/18-4/24 35 27 35 3

4/11-4/17 33 30 34 34/4 4/10 33 28 35 4

3/28 4/3 31 29 38 2

3/21 3/27 31 28 37 4

3/14 3/20 31 28 39 2

3/7 3/13 31 27 41 2

2/29 3/6 32 29 36 2

2/22 2/28 34 28 36 2

2/15 2/21 38 28 33 2

2/8 2/14 34 28 35 3

2/1 2/7 35 30 33 2

1/25 1/31 34 26 37 3

1/18 1/24 33 27 39 2

1/11 1/17 36 26 37 2

1/4 1/10 36 26 36 112/28 1/3 37 24 37 1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

Hillary Clinton,

the Democrat

Donald Trump,

the Republican

No

answer

6/277/3 48 43 9

6/206/26 49 41 10

6/136/19 48 42 10

6/66/12 49 42 9

5/306/5 48 44 9

5/235/29 47 45 8

5/165/22 47 43 9

5/9 5/15 48 45 7

5/2 5/8 49 44 7

1/4 1/10 33 32 34 2

12/28 1/3 30 34 34 2


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If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates for whom would you vote?

Who do you think will win the 2016 presidential election?

Hillary Clinton Donald Trump No answer

6/277/3 55 39 6

6/206/26 57 36 76/136/19 56 38 7

6/66/12 54 40 6

5/306/5 49 44 7

5/235/29 47 46 7

5/16-5/22 51 42 7

5/9 5/15 51 43 6

Suppose these were the candidates in the presidential election this November, for whom would you vote?



DonaldTrump, the

Republican

HillaryClinton, the

Democrat

Gary

Johnson,the

Libertarian

Jill Stein,

theGreen

Party

No

answer

6/277/3 38 41 9 5 6

6/206/26 36 42 9 5 7

6/136/19 38 42 9 5 7

6/66/12 38 42 9 5 6

6/26/5 40 39 9 4 8

Hillary Clinton,

the Democrat

Mitt Romney, the

Republican No answer

6/277/3 45 45 10

Hillary Clinton,

the Democrat

Paul Ryan, the


6/277/3 45 47 9

Hillary Clinton,

the Democrat

John Kasich, the


6/277/3 42 50 9


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How would you rate the current state of the U.S. economy?

Excellent Good Only Fair Poor No answer

6/277/3 2 30 41 26 1

Over the next year, do you think the U.S. economy will:

Get better Stay about the same Get worse No answer

6/277/3 21 48 29 2

How closely have you been following news about the United Kingdoms decision to leave the European Union, also known as the

Brexit vote?

Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Not closely at all No answer

6/277/3 22 45 22 11 1

How worried are you that the United Kingdom leaving the European Union will hurt the United States economy?

Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not worried at all No answer

6/277/3 9 39 37 14 2

Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be:

Offered a

chance to apply

for legal status

Deported to the country

they came from No answer

6/277/3 66 32 2


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METHODOLOGY

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of June 27, 2016 through July 3, 2016 was conducted online among a

national sample of 11,486 adults aged 18 and over, including 10,072 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected

from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age,

race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor StatisticsCurrent Population Survey to

reflect the demographic composition of the United States. An additional smoothing parameter for ideology based on previous Election Tracking

interviews is included. The smoothing parameter was derived from aggregated data on ideology by region collected from previous weeks (May 1-

June 26) of the Weekly Election Tracking poll.

Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error

can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and

measurement error.

To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.

The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.2 percentage point for the full sample and plus or minus 1.3 percentage point

for registered voters.

To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence

intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in

much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.

Group Unweighted N Plus or minus

Total sample 11,486 1.2

Total RVs 10,072 1.3

Republican RVs 2,795 2.4

Democrat RVs 3,248 2.2

Male 5,734 1.6

Female 5,752 1.8

18-24 710 4.7

25-34 1,361 3.5

35-44 1,592 3.2

45-54 2,387 2.7

55-64 2,768 2.4

65+ 2,668 2.4

White 8,506 1.3

Black 944 4.2

Hispanic 982 4.3

Other 1,054 4.2

nbc news surveymonkey toplines and methodology 6 27-7 3

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