navigating uncharted waters · 2020. 4. 3. · year to date (%) ishares core s&p 500 (large...

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2 Navigating Uncharted Waters Friday, April 3 rd 12pm CDT Altair Advisers

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Page 1: Navigating Uncharted Waters · 2020. 4. 3. · Year to date (%) iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap)-12.2-19.6: iShares Russell 2000 (small cap)-21.5-30.7. iShares MSCI EAFE (international)-14.1-23.0:

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Navigating Uncharted WatersFriday, April 3rd 12pm CDT

Altair Advisers

Page 2: Navigating Uncharted Waters · 2020. 4. 3. · Year to date (%) iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap)-12.2-19.6: iShares Russell 2000 (small cap)-21.5-30.7. iShares MSCI EAFE (international)-14.1-23.0:

3

Speakers

Jason M. Laurie, CFA, CFP®Managing Director & CIO

Altair Advisers

David J. Lin, CFADirector of Investment Research

Altair Advisers

Page 3: Navigating Uncharted Waters · 2020. 4. 3. · Year to date (%) iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap)-12.2-19.6: iShares Russell 2000 (small cap)-21.5-30.7. iShares MSCI EAFE (international)-14.1-23.0:

4

See disclosures at end of document. Sources: Morningstar, Altair Advisers

Selected Market Returns

Markets March(%)

Year to date(%)

iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap) -12.2 -19.6

iShares Russell 2000 (small cap) -21.5 -30.7

iShares MSCI EAFE (international) -14.1 -23.0

Vanguard REIT Index Fund (real estate) -19.3 -24.1

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (taxable) -1.4 2.2

Market Vectors Sh/Inter Muni ETF (municipal) -3.5 -1.7As of March 31, 2020

Page 4: Navigating Uncharted Waters · 2020. 4. 3. · Year to date (%) iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap)-12.2-19.6: iShares Russell 2000 (small cap)-21.5-30.7. iShares MSCI EAFE (international)-14.1-23.0:

Record-Speed 30% Drop5

373369

361354

271250

145142

136126

6863

3831

242322

Jan-11-1973Mar-24-2000Nov-29-1968Nov-07-1940Mar-10-1937Oct-09-2007Nov-09-1938Oct-25-1939Jan-04-2002Apr-10-1930Feb-24-1931Jun-26-1931Aug-25-1987Sep-16-1929Nov-09-1931Feb-06-1934Feb-19-2020

Trading Days to S&P 500 30% Drawdown

See disclosures at end of document. Sources: Bloomberg, Altair Advisers

Beginning Date of Drawdown

Page 5: Navigating Uncharted Waters · 2020. 4. 3. · Year to date (%) iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap)-12.2-19.6: iShares Russell 2000 (small cap)-21.5-30.7. iShares MSCI EAFE (international)-14.1-23.0:

Economic Data Has Yet to Catch Up6

Lead

ing

Eco

nom

ic In

dex

Leve

l (2

016

= 10

0)

January 2018 – February 2020

107

108

109

110

111

112

113Ja

n-18

Feb-

18M

ar-1

8A

pr-1

8M

ay-1

8Ju

n-18

Jul-1

8A

ug-1

8S

ep-1

8O

ct-1

8N

ov-1

8D

ec-1

8Ja

n-19

Feb-

19M

ar-1

9A

pr-1

9M

ay-1

9Ju

n-19

Jul-1

9A

ug-1

9S

ep-1

9O

ct-1

9N

ov-1

9D

ec-1

9Ja

n-20

Feb-

20

See disclosures at end of document. Sources: The Conference Board, Altair Advisers

Page 6: Navigating Uncharted Waters · 2020. 4. 3. · Year to date (%) iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap)-12.2-19.6: iShares Russell 2000 (small cap)-21.5-30.7. iShares MSCI EAFE (international)-14.1-23.0:

Best to Worst in Record Time7

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Initi

al C

laim

s fo

r Une

mpl

oym

entI

nsur

ance

(m

illio

ns)

February – March 2020

Previous high during global financial crisis (665k)

See disclosures at end of document. Sources: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Altair Advisers

Page 7: Navigating Uncharted Waters · 2020. 4. 3. · Year to date (%) iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap)-12.2-19.6: iShares Russell 2000 (small cap)-21.5-30.7. iShares MSCI EAFE (international)-14.1-23.0:

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Timely Stimulus

See disclosures at end of document. Sources: Congressional Budget Office, JP Morgan, St. Louis Federal Reserve, Altair Advisers

FiscalAmount (in billions)

One-time stimulus checks amounting to $1,200 per adult and $500 per child with

income limits$290

Enhanced, expanded, and extended unemployment benefits$260

Loans to distressed entities including $454 billion as a backstop for loans to businesses,

cities, and states$510

Small business relief, largely in the form of “forgivable loans”$377

Direct aid to state and municipal governments$150

Health-related spending$180

Other spending and tax breaks$516

Totals approximately 11% of GDP$2,283

Monetary

Mon

th-o

ver-m

onth

cha

nge

in F

eder

al R

eser

ve A

sset

s(b

illion

s)

$(200)

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Jan-

18M

ar-1

8M

ay-1

8Ju

l-18

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19M

ar-1

9M

ay-1

9Ju

l-19

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20M

ar-2

0

As of March 25, 2020

Page 8: Navigating Uncharted Waters · 2020. 4. 3. · Year to date (%) iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap)-12.2-19.6: iShares Russell 2000 (small cap)-21.5-30.7. iShares MSCI EAFE (international)-14.1-23.0:

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Questions We Are Hearing From Clients

Page 9: Navigating Uncharted Waters · 2020. 4. 3. · Year to date (%) iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap)-12.2-19.6: iShares Russell 2000 (small cap)-21.5-30.7. iShares MSCI EAFE (international)-14.1-23.0:

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Performance Following Bear Markets

See disclosures at end of document. Sources: Morningstar, BlackRock, Altair Advisers

One Year Return After Bear Market

Asset Class12/25/18

to12/24/19

3/10/09to

3/9/10

10/10/02to

10/9/03

9/1/98to

8/31/99

10/12/92to

10/11/93

12/5/87to

12/4/88

8/13/82to

8/12/84

AverageReturn

US Stocks 39.9% 72.3% 36.2% 39.8% 17.8% 22.5% 59.3% 41.1%US Small Cap Stocks 34.4% 97.9% 61.6% 28.4% 37.7% 36.7% 99.1% 56.5%International Stocks 22.8% 75.7% 39.4% 25.7% 26.4% 31.3% 32.0% 36.2%EM Stocks 19.5% 107.7% 59.7% - - - - 62.3%US Taxable Bonds 8.9% 9.3% 4.2% 0.8% 11.5% 9.2% 21.9% 9.4%Municipal Bonds 7.6% 10.9% 2.8% 0.5% 12.7% 10.6% 25.8% 10.1%

Page 10: Navigating Uncharted Waters · 2020. 4. 3. · Year to date (%) iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap)-12.2-19.6: iShares Russell 2000 (small cap)-21.5-30.7. iShares MSCI EAFE (international)-14.1-23.0:

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Questions We Are Hearing From Clients

Page 11: Navigating Uncharted Waters · 2020. 4. 3. · Year to date (%) iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap)-12.2-19.6: iShares Russell 2000 (small cap)-21.5-30.7. iShares MSCI EAFE (international)-14.1-23.0:

Structured for Longevity…

• Founded in 2002• Employee-owned• Approximately $5 billion in assets under advisement• Private and independent

Nationally Recognized...

• Barron’s Top 100 Independent Advisors• Forbes Best in State Wealth Advisors• Financial Advisor Top 100 RIAs• Crain’s Chicago Business Best Places to Work• Financial Times Top 300 RIAs

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10.22 9a

© 2020 Altair Advisers LLC

Page 12: Navigating Uncharted Waters · 2020. 4. 3. · Year to date (%) iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap)-12.2-19.6: iShares Russell 2000 (small cap)-21.5-30.7. iShares MSCI EAFE (international)-14.1-23.0:

The material shown is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, and all investments are subject to the risk of loss. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. As a practical matter, no entity is able to accurately and consistently predict future market activities. Information presented herein may incorporate Altair Advisers' opinions as of the date of this publication, is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. While efforts are made to ensure information contained herein is accurate, Altair Advisers cannot guarantee the accuracy of all such information presented. Material contained in this publication should not be construed as accounting, legal, or tax advice.

ETFs selected by Altair are intended to approximate performance of respective asset class in lieu of an established index. Altair has no relationship with the ETFs selected.

Any reference to recognitions, awards, accolades or rankings (collectively, “recognitions”) issued by unaffiliated parties or publications should not be construed as an: 1) endorsement by or on behalf of any client; or 2) assurance that any current or prospective client will receive a certain level of service from Altair. These recognitions are determined by the organization sponsoring the recognition, and are generally based upon information provided by Altair to the sponsoring organization, which typically does not audit such information. As a matter of policy, Altair does not compensate the sponsoring organization for such recognitions.

© 2020 Altair Advisers LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Disclosures13