Navajo Unit Operations

January 25, 2011

Coordination Meeting

Agenda

•Welcome

•Special Presentation – Colorado Basin River Forecast Ctr

•Review of Water Year 2010 Operations

•Water Year 2011 Current Conditions/Snowpack

•Water Year 2011 Forecasts & Proposed Operations

•Current Reservoir Status

•Navajo Dam Maintenance Activities

•Fish & Wildlife Service/San Juan RIP Update

•Reports from other Agencies

•Questions from Audience

•How To Access Information

•Close

5985

5990

5995

6000

6005

6010

6015

6020

6025

6030

6035

6040

6045

6050

6055

6060

6065

6070

6075

6080

6085

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Dail

y W

S E

levati

on

(f

t)

Dail

y In

flo

w, R

ele

ase &

Ch

an

ge-i

n-S

tora

ge (cfs

)

2010-2011

NAVAJO RESERVOIR OPERATIONS

Change-in-Storage (cfs) Total Release (cfs) Inflow (cfs) River Release (cfs) WS Elevation

Observed April-July Inflow was 84% of Average

0

500

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4000

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5000

6/15/2010 6/29/2010 7/13/2010 7/27/2010 8/10/2010 8/24/2010 9/7/2010 9/21/2010 10/5/2010 10/19/2010

Me

an D

aily

Pro

visi

on

al S

tre

amfl

ow

s (C

FS)

USGS Mean Daily Streamflow San Juan River Stations

SJ Farmington SJ Shiprock SJ Four Corners SJ Bluff Animas @ Farmington SJ Archuleta 7-Day Moving Mean

Chasing the Target Base Flow (500-1000 CFS)

San

Juan

River

Basin

JA

NU

RA

RY

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n

Insert US Map with total precipitation to

show storm tracks

Water Year 2010

San Juan Basin Snowpack Summary(as of 1/24/2011)

LocationsAverage of Applicable

SNOTEL Stations

(SWE – inches)

% Average

San Juan

(Bluff)11.6 105%

Navajo Reservoir 11.8 109%

Vallecito Reservoir 11.7 111%

Animas @

Durango11.1 107%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Snow

Wate

r E

quiv

ale

nt

(inches)

San Juan Basin Multiple Station Snotel Plot

Avg

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

SNOTEL SITES:

BEARTOWN CASCADE #1CASCADE #2CHAMITA COLUMBUS BASINCUMBRES TRESTLE LILY PONDMANCOSMIDDLE CREEKMINERAL CREEK MOLAS LAKE RED MOUNTAIN PASSSCOTCH CREEK SPUD MOUNTAINSTUMP LAKESUPPER RIO GRANDEUPPER SAN JUAN VALLECITO WOLF CREEK SUMMIT

January 24, 2011 Current Snowpack is (11.6/11) = 105% of Average

Water Year 2011 (as of 1/24/2010)

Navajo Inflows & San Juan Basin Snowpack

EOM Inflow (af) % Average SJ SWE (in.) % Average

October 26,548 52% 0.9 56%

November 12,096 37% 3.2 65%

December 18,785 76% 11.0 136%

January

(Current)8,075 50% 11.6 105%

Mid-January 2011 Forecast

Navajo Reservoir

Modified Unregulated

April-July Inflow Volume

Inflow (af)% of

Average

2010

Forecast

Most Probable 800,000 106%700,000

(93%)

Minimum Probable 500,000 66%400,000

(53%)

Maximum Probable 1,170,000 155%1,120,000

(148%)

Last Year’s SWE above Navajo = 12.8” (11.8” this year) on 1/24

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

1,300,000

1,400,000

Mid

Dec

Jan

Mid

Jan

Feb

Mid

Feb

Mar

Mid

Mar

Apr

Mid

Apr

May

Mid

May

Jun

Mid

Jun

Jul

Mid

Jul

Ap

r-J

ul O

utl

oo

k

Forecast Date

WY2011 CBRFC - Navajo Reservoir Most, Max and Min Inflow Forecasts (acre-feet)

Max Most Min 30 Yr Avg Inf low 2010 Observed

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ap

ril-Ju

ly M

od

Un

reg

In

flo

w

Years

April-July Mod Unreg Forecast from Januaryvs

Actual Mod Unreg Inflow

Minimum Probable Most Probable Maximum Probable Mod Unreg Inf low 30-Yr Average

y = 0.00001887x + 7.74470708

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

- 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,200,000

Max

imu

m A

nn

ual

SW

E (i

nch

es)

April - July Inflow Volume (acre-feet)

Historical April-July Inflows compared to Maximum Annual SWE

Maximum Annual SWE from Historic Record

2010 Maximum SWE w/ most probable forecast

y = 0.00001228x + 2.50801737

0

5

10

15

20

25

- 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

Sno

w W

ate

r Eq

uiv

ale

nt -

SWE

(in

che

s)

April - July Modified Unregulated Inflow Volume (acre-feet)

Correlation of Historical SWE from Today's Date and Mod Unreg April-July Inflow

SWE on Today's Date

Today w/ current most probable forecast

Today w/ current min probable forecast

Today w/ current max probable forecast

SNOTEL above Navajo vs. Inflow Forecast

Today’s SWE

Today’s SWE

2010

2010

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1

Cu

mm

ula

tiv

e A

pril

-Ju

ly In

flo

w V

olu

me

(a

cre

-fe

et)

Cummulative April - July Observed Inflow of Representative SWE Years

1991 1989 1992 2010 Historic Average Current Observed and Current Most Probable Monthly Forecast

Climate

Prediction

Center

Precip.

Outlooks

8-14 Day

February

Monthly

Climate

Prediction

Center

Seasonal

Precipitation

Outlooks

March-April-May

February-March-April

Water Year 2011

Proposed Operations

• Navajo Reservoir is at a manageable elevation

• 500 cfs base release until Spring Peak Release

• As of now, it is likely there will be a Spring Peak

Relase

• It is only January, and a lot can still change!

1

5

14

4

1312

10

9

11

8

3

27

6

AVAILABLE WATER PATH

Min Prob: 510,000 af #5

Most Prob: 749,000 af #8

Max Prob: 1,072,000 af #6

0

500

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4000

4500

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5500

Rele

ase (

CF

S)

Spring Peak Hydrographs for WY2011 as of the Mid January Forecast

Minimum Probable Maximum Probable Most Probable

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

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300,000

350,000

*OC

T10

*NO

V10

*DE

C10

JA

N11

FE

B11

MA

R11

AP

R11

MA

Y11

JU

N11

JU

L11

AU

G11

SE

P11

Inflow (af) as of January 2011 Mid Month Forecast

30-Yr Avg Min Prob Most Prob Max Prob

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

*OC

T10

*NO

V10

*DE

C10

JA

N11

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B11

MA

R11

AP

R11

MA

Y11

JU

N11

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AU

G11

SE

P11

Release (af) as of January 2011 Mid Month Forecast

30-Yr Avg Min Prob Most Prob Max Prob

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

*OC

T10

*NO

V10

*DE

C10

JA

N11

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R11

AP

R11

MA

Y11

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N11

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L11

AU

G11

SE

P11

Co

nte

nt (a

f)Content (af) as of January 2011 Mid Month Forecast

30-Yr Avg Min Prob Most Prob Max Prob

6,000

6,020

6,040

6,060

6,080*O

CT

10

*NO

V10

*DE

C10

JA

N11

FE

B11

MA

R11

AP

R11

MA

Y11

JU

N11

JU

L11

AU

G11

SE

P11

Co

nte

nt (a

f)Elevation as of January 2011 Mid Month Forecast

Min Prob Most Prob Max Prob

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Flo

ws (C

FS

)

San Juan Flows based on Most Probable Forecasts for Navajo and the Animas River & Corresponding Navajo Operations based on that forecast

San Juan at Farmington San Juan at Shiprock San Juan at Four Corners San Juan at Bluf f San Juan at Archuleta 7DMM

San Juan River Downstream Flows based on

Most Probable Forecast and Median Losses

Observed Projected

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Flo

ws (C

FS

)

San Juan Flows based on Minimum Probable Forecasts for Navajo and the Animas River & Corresponding Navajo Operations based on that forecast

San Juan at Farmington San Juan at Shiprock San Juan at Four Corners San Juan at Bluf f San Juan at Archuleta 7DMM

San Juan River Downstream Flows based on

Min Probable Forecast and 90% Ex. Losses

Observed Projected

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Flo

ws (C

FS

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San Juan Flows based on Maximum Probable Forecasts for Navajo and the Animas River & Corresponding Navajo Operations based on that forecast

San Juan at Farmington San Juan at Shiprock San Juan at Four Corners San Juan at Bluf f San Juan at Archuleta 7DMM

San Juan River Downstream Flows based on

Max Probable Forecast and 10% Ex. Losses

Observed Projected

Navajo Current Conditions(as of 1/23/11)

Elevation = 6060.0 (103% of Average)

Storage = 1,347,419 af (79% Full)

Inflow = 170 cfs (January Average)

Release = 500 cfs

NIIP = Not currently diverting water

San Juan-Chama Diversion = None

Nearby Reservoirs

Nearby Reservoirs(1/23/2011)

Vallecito

- Elevation = 7642.2 (55% Full, 109% of average)

- Storage = 69,030 af

- Release = 30 cfs

- Inflow = 79 cfs (January Average)

Lemon

- Elevation = 8095.5 (36% Full, 67% of average)

- Storage = 14,146 af

- Release = 11cfs

- Inflow = 12 cfs (January Average)

Animas-La Plata Project

• No pumping in January, first half of February

• Reservoir is 2/3 Full (79,500 af stored)

• Reservoir expected to fill this summer

• Navajo Nation Municipal Pipeline is currently

under construction

Future Navajo Dam

Maintenance Activities:

1. Muck-out Stilling Basin

2. 6x13 Emergency Gate Bonnet

Maintenance•Will occur after Stilling Basin muck-out (Fall 2011)

•Flow will be diverted through auxiliary gate for 1

month to 6 weeks

Stilling Basin Update

•Contract has been awarded to DLM (ABQ)

•Waiting for submittals from contractor

•Notice to proceed has not been given

•Start date is still uncertain

•Estimate is 2-3 weeks to complete

•Release will remain at 500 cfs during work

•Cofferdam (aquadam) approach will provide

minimum disturbance

•NM Game & Fish will remove any remaining fish

in stilling basin prior to dewatering

•Anticipate no impacts to fishery

How You Can

Access Information

Bureau of Reclamation

www.usbr.gov/uc

USGS

http://water.usgs.gov/nwis

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Reclamation Contacts:

Pat Page970-385-6560, ppage@usbr.gov

Ryan Christianson970-385-6590, rchristianson@usbr.gov

Ruth Swickard970-385-6523, rswickard@usbr.gov

Summary• Several storms in December brought the snowpack to as high as

136% of average, current snowpack is just above average.

• Fall and early winter inflows have been below normal

• Most Probable April – July Inflow Forecast is 106% of average

• Historic snowpack and climate outlooks suggest less inflow

• Based on the most probable forecast, a full hydrograph of 21 days at

5000 cfs with weeklong ramp-ups is scheduled

• If the inflow forecast decreases, the spring peak will be less

• Downstream river flows are expected to be near normal

• Likely Minimum (Base) Release = 500 cfs before and after the

spring peak release

• Target Baseflow is 500 -1000 cfs in Critical Habitat

• Next Operations Meeting: April ?, 2011