nature-based sea level rise solutions - san mateo€¦ · nature-based sea level rise solutions...
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1Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
NATURE-BASED SEA LEVEL RISE SOLUTIONSAssessing the co-benefits of alternative restoration scenarios in San Mateo County
Katherine Wyatt and Rob Griffin
The Natural Capital Project
November 28, 2018
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2Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
ALTERNATIVE VISIONS FOR THE FUTURE
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3Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
Accelerated innovation Abandonment
and renewal
Connected communities
Nested watershed
Today
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4Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
SEA-LEVEL RISE
Today
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5Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
South Bay Sponge – Resilient by Design
Workshop ideas
• Marsh restoration
• River restoration
• Beaches
• Horizontal levees
• Oyster reefs
• Development specs and zoning requirements
• Housing
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6Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
THREE SCENARIOS
2. What we have done – protect existing marshes and restore as much of the salt ponds to marsh as possible.
1. What we might have done – armored the whole shoreline –serves as a baseline or comparison point
3. What we could do next – add nature based features throughout to protect marshes and communities
Alameda Point Runway Wetland -
alamedapointenviro.com Outer Bair Island- alamedapointenviro.com -
Dicklyon
Horizontal Levee –
HT Harvey & Associates
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7Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
OLU SPECIFIC OPPORTUNITIES
Yosemite –
Visitacion
Colma –
San Bruno
San Mateo Belmont –
Redwood
San
Francisquito
Strategies - Beach - Beach
- Natural
features along
arrowhead
- Beach to
reduce scarp
erosion
- Horizontal
levee
- Marsh
- Horizontal
levee (incl.
SAFER)
- Marsh (incl.
salt ponds
restoration)
- Horizontal levee
- Marsh
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8Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
THREE SCENARIOS
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9Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
ASSUMPTIONS
● All scenarios provide the same level of protection (i.e.100-yr FEMA flood in 2050)
○ Maintenance and management of marshes will probably be needed beyond 2050.
● For scenario 2 and 3, replace hardened shoreline with marshes and beaches where appropriate
● Assume marshes keep up with SLR up to at least 2050 – as shown by Point Blue modeling.
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10Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
CLARIFYING QUESTIONS ABOUT SCENARIOS?
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11Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
NATURE-BASED SHORELINE SOLUTIONS
How do available SLR adaptation scenarios affect the well-being of people in San Mateo County?
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12Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN SAN MATEO COUNTY
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13Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
SCENARIO COMPARISONS RELATIVE TO AN ENGINEERED COAST (S1)
Co-benefits S2 S3
Marsh habitat 5.4x 6.9x
Ridgeway rail 5.4x 6.7x
Beach +0.5 km2 +1.7 km2
Wave reduction 2.2x >2.2x
Recreation* 1.0x 1.0x
Runoff retention 5.6x 6.8x
Carbon storage and sequestration 5.1x 6.3x
* Substantial variation between OLUs
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14Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
ACROSS SERVICES,
SCENARIOS DEMONSTRATE THAT
- Scenario 2 demonstrates the vast benefits from nature from
current and planned restoration
- Scenario 3 highlights opportunities to go farther
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15Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
HABITATS AND SPECIES
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16Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
HABITATS AND SPECIES
● Indicator habitats and species
● Marsh and beach habitat
● Seal haul-out sites
● Habitat for ridgeway rail
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17Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
MULTIPLE SCENARIOS
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18Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
HABITAT ACROSS OLUS & SCENARIOS
0 10 20 30
Yosemite -- Visitacion
Colma -- San Bruno
San Mateo
Belmont -- Redwood
San Francisquito
Marsh area (sq km)
0 0.2 0.4 0.6
Y - V
C - SB
SM
B - R
SF
Beach area (sq km)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 3 w/ SLR
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19Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
SPECIES ASSOCIATIONS MARSH HABITAT EXPLAINS 80% OF THE VARIATION IN RIDGEWAY RAIL OCCURRENCE
S2: 19.0 sq km S3: 23.7 sq km S3 w/ SLR:
6.9 sq km
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20Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
HABITAT AND SPECIES TAKE-HOMES
1. Continued protection and restoration is needed to protect against potential 35% losses from sea-level rise
2. Planned habitat restoration will increase marsh and ridgeway habitat by more than 5x; additional measures can maintain these benefits and increase them by 1.3x
3. SMC is uniquely situated in the Bay. SMC has nearly 10% of tidal marsh and ridgeway rail habitat, and 15% of seal haul-out sites
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21Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
COASTAL PROTECTION
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22Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
COASTAL PROTECTION
● Vegetation (marsh) reduces wave energy, alters
● Protection across scenarios
● Reduce levee costs
With vegetation
Without vegetation
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23Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
SAN MATEO
Vegetation reduces
wave impacts
• Varies
• Max diff from marsh
is 2.2ft
01
2
Max diff (ft)
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24Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
SCENARIO RESULTS
Restoration of Bair
island in S2 and S3
• Wave height
difference is 9
inches
Wave
height
(ft)
Location along transect (ft)
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25Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
COASTAL PROTECTION TAKE-HOMES
1. Tidal wetlands in the southern OLUs reduce wave height and the area at risk of damage
2. Implemented and planned restoration will have benefits. E.g. Bair Island serves to reduce wave height by 9 inches
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26Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
RECREATION
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27Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
RECREATION
Photo User Days, flickr
250m
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28Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Yosemite -- Visitacion
Colma -- San Bruno
San Mateo
Belmont -- Redwood
San Francisquito
Scenario 2 Scenario 3
VISITATION RELATIVE TO AN ENGINEERED COAST (S1)
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29Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
RECREATION TAKE-HOMES
● San Mateo County provides a wealth of recreation opportunities along its miles of shoreline and in parks and trails near the shore
● SLR protection strategies along the coastline have varying relationships with recreation
○ Marshes tend to be associated with decreased visitation
○ Beaches and trail access associated with increased visitation
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30Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
RUNOFF RETENTION
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31Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
RUNOFF RETENTION
Stormwater management is a
Baywide issue
○ Paved areas produce more
runoff and increase flood
risk
○ Pollutants are discharged
into the Bay
Natural or pervious areas
(inland) and marshes (along the
coast) help retain pollutants
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32Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
NITROGEN
RUNOFF
RETENTION
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
San Francisquito
Belmont - Redwood
San Mateo
Colma - San Bruno
Yosemite - Visitacion
Retention (kgN/yr)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
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33Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
CARBON STORAGE &
SEQUESTRATION
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34Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
CARBON STORAGE & SEQUESTRATION
● Calculates carbon storage
and sequestration for natural
habitats
● Carbon pools: plant
(biomass), dead plant
material, soil
● Change data: accumulation
and decay rates
● Mix of local and global data (Chumra et al. 2003, Hinson et al.
2017)
Living
plant
biomass
Dead
plant
material
Soil
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35Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
CARBON STORAGE BY 2050 (TONS CO2)
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
Yosemite -- Visitacion
Colma -- San Bruno
San Mateo
Belmont -- Redwood
San Francisquito
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 3 with SLR
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36Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
CARBON STORAGE & SEQUESTRATION -
TAKE-HOMES
Each year, existing and planned marshes
(S2) sequester the equivalent of:
● the CO2 emissions from 2,100 cars
● the energy used by 1,100 homes
● 12,000 acres of terrestrial forests
… while marshes persist
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37Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
VARIATION ACROSS OLUS & SCENARIOS
0 30
Yosemite --Visitacion
Colma -- SanBruno
San Mateo
Belmont --Redwood
SanFrancisquito
0 0.6
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 3 w/ SLR
0 1 0 30000
Marsh area (km2) Beach area (km2) Visitation (rel. to S1) Retention (kgN/yr) Carbon (tons CO2)
0 1mil
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38Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
TAKE-HOME MESSAGES
• Because of the wealth of marsh habitat in San Mateo County,
this area provides important benefits locally and Bay-wide.
• Our approach allows for quantifying the multiple benefits of
protection and restoration of coastal habitats and how they vary
throughout the County.
• Current and planned habitat protection and restoration provide
2-5x benefits delivered by an armored shoreline.
• Further incorporation of natural and nature-based adaptation
strategies could increase these benefits.
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39Regional Working Group #7, November 27, 2019
HOW WOULD YOU USE THIS KIND OF
APPROACH?Demonstrate/educate stakeholders and voters about multiple benefits for people and wildlife of SLR adaptation strategies that include nature
Methods and workflows established for baseline assessments, targeted investments, insurance markets, etc. – ex. AB 691 Coyote Point SLR impacts, Plan Princeton, SB 30
Other potential decision contexts?