natural resources, conflict,and conflict resolution
TRANSCRIPT
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Natural Resources, Conflict,and Conflict Resolution
UNCOVERING THEMECHANISMS
Macartan Humphreys
Mohsin Ayub 10566
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Background
The author links the peace/conflicts of a region withthe availability of natural resource
The relation among the civil war, resource conflictsand resource dependence is proven through rebelgreed hypothesis
Rebel Greed Hypothesis is dependent upon any oneor combination of plausible mechanisms
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Initiation
The conflict onset is more impact of past naturalresource production than potential for futureproduction
Natural Resource conflicts and weak state
Agricultural dependence
Natural resource wars
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Chad and the Oil Reserves
Tombalbaye in April 1975 was killed from successfulcoup detat.
Reasons lay with the oil in the Doba fields in the
South For almost 30 years after Chad had allowed U.S.
corporations to prospect for oil in the ex-colony Relations with France have weakened
People are against the government Control of oil revenues has been central to Chadian politics
Up to 2003, not a single drop had been pumped
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Natural Resources And Civil Wars
Countries whose wealth is largely dependent on theexportation of primary commodities are highly proneto civil violence
Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler at the World Bank
Conflicts may occur due to
Greed
Grievances
Marginalization
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The Six Rival Families Of Mechanisms
The GreedyRebels
Mechanism
The FeasibilityMechanism
The WeakStates
Mechanism
The Sparse
NetworksMechanism
The GrievanceMechanism
The Greedy
OutsidersMechanism
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The greedy rebels mechanism
Domestic groups may engage in quasi-criminalactivity
Natural resources increase the prize value of
capturing the state Natural resources are concentrated groups may
become dissatisfied
Example: Sierra Leone, where control of thediamond areas sufficiently weakened the state as tomake state capture appear easy
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The greedy outsiders mechanism
The existence of natural resources may be anincentive for third parties
States
Corporation
Example: the escalation of the civil war in Congo hasresulted in part from the involvement of neighboringstates seeking raw materials
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The grievance mechanism
Countries with middling levels of dependence onnatural resources may be experiencing transitoryinequality as part of the development process
Economies that are dependent on natural resourcesmay be more vulnerable to terms of trade shocks
The process of extraction may produce grievances
Natural resource wealth may be seen as moreunjustly distributed than other wealth
Example: In Sierra Leone and Nigeria
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The feasibility mechanism
The conflicts due to natural resources are permissivecause and not root cause
because motivations for conflict are foundeverywhere
And these motivation are contingent
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The weak states mechanism
Citizens are untaxed by governments, they have lesspower over them
Governments that rely on natural resources ratherthan taxation have weakened incentives to createstrong bureaucratic institutions
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The sparse networks mechanism
The importance of natural resources may lie in theirimpacts on the daily economic activities of thecitizens of an economy
The weakness of the manufacturing sector and thefragmentation of an economy into independentenclaves of production may raise conflict risks
Good cross-national measures of the density ofinternal trade or the sparseness of internal networksdo not exist
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NATURAL RESOURCES AND DURATION
The feasibilitymechanism
The sparsenetworks
mechanism
The militarybalances
mechanism
The fragmentedorganizational
The possibility ofpork mechanism
The internationalconflict premium
mechanism
The domesticconflict premium
mechanism
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The feasibility mechanism
Natural resource financing creates longerwars byenabling rebel groups to keep fighting
Angola conflict is good example for this as bothsides had access to natural resource financing tosupport their combatants
Similarly in case of Niger and Mali, the countrieswere not wealthy enough to support a protractedstruggle as the regions were occupied by insurgents
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The military balances mechanism
The natural resources financing helps in keeping thecombatants alive and fighting, thus leads to ultimate
victory in war
Wars with financial asymmetries are likely to lastless long, balance makes for longer wars
Researchers however suggest that balance in naturalresources facilitates negotiated settlement
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The fragmented organizational structuresmechanism
Organizational effects may matter for war duration.
Researchers have suggested, for example, that we
should expect a positive relationship between thecohesiveness of a rebel organization or its degree ofhierarchy and the duration of a conflict.
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The possibility of pork mechanism
If resource exploitation depends on peace, then thepresence of natural resource endowments shouldmake negotiation more likely to succeed
But third party involvement is necessary
Both parties should be willing
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The domestic conflict premium mechanism
Groups that benefit during conflict may prefer tofight than to win and therefore act as spoilers topeace processes
The fighters in these conflicts may not have aninterest in the success of negotiations
The link between the benefits of war and a conflictsduration can be clear from the fact that individualsbenefit in Wartime more than they would in times ofpeace
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The international conflict premium mechanism
Insofar as third parties can bring pressure to bear onthe resolution of conflicts, their incentives can helpdetermine the duration of conflicts
Neighbouring states can provide sanctuary for rebelbases within their borders, and they can providelogistical support to one side or another
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The sparse networks mechanism
Sparse network explains the duration of war moreclearly
The dense linkages within economies may prevent aconflict from breaking out, so may they help resolvethem.
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MECHANISMS AND ESTIMATION
Two different waysreferred to as
systems with Type B
systems with Type A mechanisms by Elster
(1998)in which rival mechanisms may relate toeach other.
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SYSTEMS WITH TYPE B MECHANISMS
System with Type B mechanisms is one in whichmultiple mechanisms may work simultaneously,possibly with opposite effects.
Type B mechanisms use more fine-grained data. Twoapproaches stand out.
Disaggregating the Explanatory Variable
Disaggregating the Dependent Variable
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SYSTEMS WITH TYPE A MECHANISMS
Type A mechanism problem as one where theindeterminacy concerns which (if any) of severalcausal chains will be triggered.We can consider twocases.
Type A Mechanisms Where the Sorting Procedure IsKnown
Type A Mechanisms Where the Sorting Procedure IsNot Known
RESULTS MECHANISM
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RESULTS: MECHANISMIDENTIFICATION
The most common measure that has been used is thevalue of primary commodity exports as a share ofGDP or of total exports
Singapore appears as one of the most natural-resource-dependent economies
Sudan and Burma feature as countries with amongthe lowest levels of dependence on natural resources.
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Conclusion
Countries dependent on agricultural commoditiesare at risk
Weak state structures and grievance hypotheses
Natural resource conflicts are more likely to endquickly and are more likely to end with military
victory
There are interventions of third parties among 85%
of the conflicts that arise over natural resources
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Thank You
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