natural gas industry in peru
TRANSCRIPT
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Natural Gas Industry In PeruNatural Gas Industry In Peru
Laura CauseyLaura CauseyMichael EatmonMichael Eatmon
Sara HabibSara HabibKien NguyenKien Nguyen
Sheau TeSheau Te
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Camisea Natural Gas Reservoir
The Camisea natural gas reserve located in PeruDiscovered in 1980 by Shell OilApproximately 11 trillion ft3, estimated 600 million bbl reserve
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Project DescriptionObjective: Present business plan based on varying initial investmentsGOALS:Research Peruvian marketResearch petrochemical products produced using natural gasFind imported petrochemical productsUse business model to compare different options
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Project Scope
Investigate entire natural gas marketEliminate processesDetermine fixed capital investment and operating costs for processesProduct pricesProduct demandsDeterministic ModelStochastic Model
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Camisea Pipeline Project
Route: Camisea Reservoir to PiscoCurrent rate: 400 million cubic feet per dayTwo pipelines
NGL (natural gas liquids)Natural Gas
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Pipeline Economics
Length of pipeline 155 miles ~ 250 kmTotal cost: $2.7 billion US dollarsCost per mile $17.4 million
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Plant Design
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Deterministic Model
Optimization softwareGAMS
FunctionCalculates net present worthSelects if and when a process is to be constructed Selects process capacitiesRegulates expansions
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Deterministic Model
Data requiredPipe cost from Camisea to PiscoFixed capital investmentOperating costChemical pricesDemand
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Process Selection
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Eliminated Processes
Acetic AcidFormaldehydeUreaPhenolStyrene
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Acetic Acid/FormaldehydeAcetic Acid
Products not in high demand for market
FormaldehydeMarket in region dominated by BrazilDemand satisfied
*Vines, Tonya. Industry Week. Borden Responds to Consumer Trends; Apr 2005; pg. 66.
*Chemical Week; June 30-Jul 7, 2004. pg 40
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Urea ProcessDecreasing demand for productMore economical products can be made by natural gas
*Van Savage, Eleanor. Chemical Market Reporter. Urea Prices on Depleting Inventories and Raising Natural Gas Prices. July 15, 2002.
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Phenol/Styrene
PhenolIncreasing prices, low marginsMarket is saturated
StyreneMarket for phenol currently satisfied by local companies
*Viswanathan, Prema. Chemical News; Feb 28-Mar 6, 2005. pg. 24
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Product Evaluation
Not selling individual gasesEthanePentane
These products used in other processes to yield higher profit products
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Different Investment Options
Need to determineWhat processes to buildCapacitiesExpansionsReinvestment
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Methods To Calculate Fixed Capital Investment
Equipment cost breakdownProcess flow diagrams
Pressure dropChange in temperatureDutiesResidence timeConversionHeat transfer coefficients
Direct Costs/Indirect CostsResearch provided by other companies
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Ethylene Synthesis
• InitiationCnH2n+2→CmH2m+1.+C(n-m)H2(n-m)+1.
• PropagationCnH2n+2+CmH2m+1.→CnH2n+1.+CmH2m+2CnH2n+1.→CmH2m+C(n-m)H2(n-m)+1.
• TerminationCnH2n+1.+CmH2m+1.→CnH2n+CmH2m+2CnH2n+1.+CmH2m+1.→CnH2n+2+CmH2mCnH2n+1.+CmH2m+1.→Cn+mH2(n+m)+2
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Ethylene Synthesis Technology
ABB Lummus Global SRT Cracking Technology
1.5 MMTAResidence time of <1sGood environmental performance
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Fixed Capital Investment vs. Capacity of Ethylene Synthesis
y = 2.2169x + 29.716
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Capacity (kg/s)
Mill
ion
$
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Operating Cost vs. Capacity
y = 6.0234x + 2.1775
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Capacity (kg/s)
Ope
ratin
g C
ost (
mill
ion
$/yr
)
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Low Density Polyethylene
Overall polymerization reactionn(CH2=CH2) →(-CH2-CH2-)n
Peroxides provide the source of free radicalsCatalyst is a Ziegler-Natta
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ExxonMobil High-Pressure Process for Low Density Polyethylene
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Low Density Polyethylene Technologies
Polimeri Europa High-Pressure ProcessBenefits
Ziegler-Natta catalyst allows for flexibility of products400,000 MTAConversions up to 30%
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Low Density Polyethylene Technologies
ExxonMobil High-Pressure ProcessBenefits
Predominant polyethylene process400,000 MTAControl of product properties and qualityConversion up to 40%
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Phillips Polypropylene Process
• Ziegler-Natta catalyst
• Overall ReactionTi-Et+n(CH3CH2=CH) →Ti(CH3CH2CH)n-Et
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Phillips Polypropylene Process Description
Mixture fed to pipe loopreactorHigh-purity propyleneEthylene comonomerCatalystModifiers
SeparatorCatalyst residuesSoluble polymer slurry
Flash drumSoluble polymer slurry
DryerSoluble polymer
ExtruderPolymer pelletized
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Polypropylene Technologies
BASF NovolenBenefits
Excellent homogeneityFlexibleEmission result only from leaksLow utility costs
PhillipsBenefits
Simplest, most efficient process FlexibleOperate on a wide variety of catalystsLow waste
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High Density Polyethylene
Manufactured using 3 process technologies at low pressure
SlurrySolutionGas Phase
Ziegler-Natta catalyst or chromium oxideHighest crystallinity
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*Phillips High Density Polyethylene Process
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High Density Polyethylene Technologies
HoechstControl of molecular weightOptimal steady state behaviorLow investment costs
PhillipsPredominant technologySimpleLow investment costs
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Linear-Low Density Polyethylene
ProcessesGas PhaseSolution
CatalystsZiegler (titanium)Phillips (chromium)
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Fixed Capital InvestmentTanker cost
Operating costsCrew costLubes & StoresMaintenance & RepairInsuranceAdministrationFuel
Liquid Natural Gas
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Ammonia Synthesis
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Ammonia Synthesis
Five technologiesICI process Haldor – Topsoe processUhde Ammonia processKellogg Brown & Roots Advanced Ammonia plus process (KAAPplusTM)
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Ammonia SynthesisKAAP plusTM :
Lower capital costImproved reliabilityReduced operating costLower energy consumption
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Fertilizer - Ammonium Nitrate
Ammonium Nitrate from Ammonia
Nitric acid formation:NH3 (g) + 2O2 (g) ↔ HNO3 (aq) +H2O (l)
Ammonium nitrate fertilizer:HNO3 (aq) + NH3(g) ↔ NH4NO3 (aq)
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Nitric Acid
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Nitric Acid
Uhde Nitric acidHigh pressureMedium pressureDual pressure
Dual pressureLower operating pressureLower electricity costLower catalyst lost (platinum)
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Ammonium Nitrate
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Vinyl Chloride
Vinnolit vinyl chloride process
HClClHCClHC
OHClHCOHClHC
ClHCClHC
222212
32242
2242242
242242
+→
+→++
→+
)(2212 2322242 overallOHClHCOClHC +→++
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Vinyl Chloride
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Polyvinyl ChloridenCHClCHCHClnCH ][ 22 −−−→=
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Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)
Suspension-PVC (S-PVC)pipesconstructionsbottlescablebags
Emulsion/Paste-PVC (E/P-PVC)flooringcoated fabricswall coverings
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Fischer Tropsch
Converts natural gas into long chain hydrocarbons and oxygenates
Alternative Production RouteTransportation fuelsPetrochemical feedstock
Large capital investment
Increased interestHigh crude oil price
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Process Steps
Synthesis gas manufacturing: produces a mixture of CO and H2 from natural gas
CH4 + H2O CO + 3H2 (steam reforming)
Fischer-Tropsch synthesis: converts syngas into a large range of linear hydrocarbons (synthetic crude oil)
nCO +2nH2 -(CH2)n- + nH2O
Product upgrading: classic crude oil refinery technique
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Sasol Technology Fisher Tropsch Process
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TechnologiesSasol Technology• Uses coal-derived gas as feedstock• Autothermal reformer • Cobalt catalyst FT slurry reactor
Advanced Gas Conversion (AGC-21)• Circulating fluidized bed reactor for syngas• Slurry cobalt catalyst FT reactor• Developed by ExxonMobil
Shell Middle Distillate Synthesis (SMDS)• Non-catalytic combined reforming process for syngas generation• Fixed-bed Arge-type FT reactor
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Methanol Production1. Feed Gas Preparation
produce mixture of CH4 and steam from Natural Gas
2. Synthesis Gas GenerationSteam reforming CH4 + H2O = CO + 3H2Shift reaction CO + H2O = CO2 + H2
3. Methanol SynthesisCO + 2H2 = CH3OHCO2 + 3H2 = CH3OH + H2O
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Flow diagram of a Leading Concept Methanol Plant
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TechnologiesLow Pressure Methanol (LPM)LPM uses low pressure reformer Produces 60% of the methanol in the world
Gas Heated Reformer (GHR)Enables manufacture of greater volumes of methanolReduces the cost of production
Leading Concept Methanol (LCM)LCM brings together GHR with the LPMMore compactMore economical
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Ethylene Glycol
Most ethylene glycol plants use hydration of ethylene oxideConsisted of two processes
Production of ethylene oxide from ethylene CH2=CH2 + ½ O2 (CH2)2OProduction of ethylene glycol from ethylene oxide(CH2)2O + H2O CH2—CH2
OH OH
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Halcon SD Group Ethylene Oxide Process
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Ethylene Glycol Process
Schematic flow diagram of Halcon SD ethylene glycol plant
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Deterministic Model
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Planning Model Input
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Deterministic Parameters
Natural Gas Flow RateMaximum: 10,000,000 ft3/dayMinimum: 50,000 ft3/day
Maximum Initial Investment - $7 BillionTaxes – 10%Interest Rate – 5%Reinvestment – 20%
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Initial Model Design Results
NPW - $40.5 BillionFCI - $6.50 BillionExpansion Costs - $2.56 BillionNatural gas flow rate – 3.5 Million ft3/day
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Ethane
AmmoniaSynthesis
MethanolSynthesis
Fischer-Tropsch reaction
Ammonia
Methanol
Diesel
VC
Ethylene Glycol Ethylene Glycol
Ethylene Synthesis
Natural Gas Distillation
Natural Gas
Nitric Acid Formation/ Fertilizer
NH4NO3Methane
Methane
MethaneLNG
Production LNG
ButadieneMixed butane’s
Pyrolysis gasoline
Methane
PVC PVC
Polypropylene
Polypropylene
Fourth Year Expansion
Ethane
AmmoniaSynthesis
MethanolSynthesis
Fischer-Tropsch reaction
Ammonia
Methanol
Diesel
Ethylene Glycol Ethylene Glycol
Ethylene Synthesis
Natural Gas Distillation
Natural Gas
Nitric Acid Formation/ Fertilizer
NH4NO3Methane
Methane
MethaneLNG
Production LNG
ButadieneMixed butane’s
Pyrolysis gasoline
Methane
Polypropylene
Polypropylene
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Reinvestment
Reinvestment initially set to 20%Inefficient
Reinvestment allowed to varyMaximum Value: 100%Minimum Value: 0%Increased NPW $12 Billion
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Ethane
AmmoniaSynthesis
MethanolSynthesis
Fischer-Tropsch reaction
Ammonia
Methanol
Diesel
Ethylene Glycol Ethylene Glycol
Ethylene Synthesis
Natural Gas Distillation
Natural Gas
Nitric Acid Formation/ Fertilizer
NH4NO3Methane
Methane
MethaneLNG
Production LNG
ButadieneMixed butane’s
Pyrolysis gasoline
Methane
Polypropylene
Polypropylene
Second Year Expansion
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Deterministic Model Results
61.4%$8,963.4$0.00 $8,963.4$55.0$9
58.8%$9,063.1$2,558.40 $6,504.7$53.3$8
57.9%$9,063.1$2,558.40 $6,504.7$52.5$7
57.6%$8,838.8$2,838.83 $6,000.0$50.9$6
ROICapital
(Millions)Reinvestment
(Millions)
Actual Initial
Investment (Millions)
NPW (Billions)
Maximum Initial
Investment (Billions)
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Second Year Expansion
Second Year Expansion
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Number of Plants Built 1st Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
$6 $7 $8 $9
Initial Investment (Billions)
Num
ber o
f Pla
nts
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NPW Related to Initial Investment
$50.9
$52.5
$53.3
$55.0
$48
$49
$50
$51
$52
$53
$54
$55
$56
$6 $7 $8 $9
Initial Investment (Billions)
NPW
(Bill
ions
)
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Sensitivity Analysis
Vary product pricesDetermine the effect of price on process flow rateRange of prices that does not affect overall results
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Cost Analysis
$54.2 $3.00 $1.59 High Density Polyethylene
$54.1 $3.50 $1.65 Low Density Polyethylene
NPW (Billions)
Profitable Price ($/kg)
Initial Price ($/kg)
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Cost Analysis
Polyvinyl Chloride, Initial Price - $1.26/kgNew Price - $1.10/kg
Built 1st year, not 2nd
Smaller process flow rateNew Price - $1.00/kg
Polyvinyl Chloride not sold
$45.8$1.00/kg$48.7 $1.10/kg$52.5 $1.26/kg
NPW (Billions)PVC Price
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Cost AnalysisMethanol, Initial Price - $0.316/kg
New Price - $0.27/kgNPW - $48.9 Billion
New Price - $0.10/kgProcess still builtNPW - $38.4 Billion
$38.4$0.10/kg$48.9$0.25/kg$52.5$0.316/kg
NPW (Billons)Methanol Price
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Stochastic Model
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Stochastic Model
Stochastic modelUncertainties
Price, demand First Stage Variables
“Here and Now Decision”Plants built in first five years
Second Stage Variables“Wait and See Decision”Capacities, feed flow rate, plants built after fifth years
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Stochastic Model
What is scenarios?A set of prices and demands of each product in each year
How to generate scenarios?Sampling distribution probability
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El FinalEl Final
Questions?