natural capital, ecosystem services and the uk dairy industry les firbank firbank ecosystems ltd...
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Natural capital, ecosystem services and the
UK dairy industry
Les FirbankFirbank Ecosystems Ltd
University of Leeds [email protected]
• UKNEA, natural capital and ecosystem services
• Natural capital and the dairy industry
UK National Ecosystem Assessment
• First major audit of state of UK environment in terms of how well it can provide what we want and need
• The intention is to make sure we factor environmental goods and services into decision making, even though they are not costed
• The report is already very influential
Natural Capital
• At farm scale, the natural resources needed to sustain the business– Is the land in good heart?
• At national scale, our environmental stocks, including wildlife, beautiful landscapes, energy and water resources, soil carbon– Is our country environmentally rich?
Ecosystem services
• The services that we need and value that are provided by ecosystems– Food, water purification, climate regulation, game
shooting, beauty, health
Note that ecosystem services
• include positive services and dis-services / external costs
• are often transformed before they reach a ‘consumer’ (eg food chain)
• data are often sparse, poorly indicated, hard to interpret or absent altogether
Valuations of ecosystem services are
• very sensitive to system boundaries• very sensitive to weightings• more useful for comparisons than for absolute
values
• hard to interpret, in the absence of markets?
Agriculture and the UKNEA
• Impact of agriculture on other ecosystem services is of major importance
• 1940s-1990s Food production increased at the expense of the environment
• 1990s-2000s – Food production stalled, while environmental quality increased
• 2010s- Increased pressure on land, food and input price inflation, less public money – ‘sustainable intensification’ ?
UK Food production: a success story
Agriculture v other ecosystem services
• Relationships are currently negative, per unit area of land
Agriculture v other ecosystem services: Potential win-win
• Increased resource use efficiency reduces pollution
• Intensive = good for the carbon and water quality footprints per unit production
• Intensive can be good for animal welfare
Agriculture v other ecosystem services: Probable win-lose
• Intrinsic conflict with biodiversity• Likely conflicts with landscape quality and
public perception
Biodiversity
• Declines in specialist farmland birds• For species of wet grassland, key drivers are
drainage; stocking densities; use of fertiliser and pesticides
Public perception – concerns about
• Animal welfare• Factory farming• Big corporations• Landscape• Pollution
Compassion in World Farming
Input costs to UK agriculture are rising fast ..
• Price of red diesel rose around 2.5 x between 2000 - 2010
• Expenditure on fertiliser has doubled since 2000, usage fallen by 30%
• Expenditure on animal feed increased by 2/3 since 2005 to £4b, volume rose a little
What is the future for UK agriculture?
• More complex global markets, regulations, weather patterns
• Protein and energy will become more expensive• Need to control costs & manage risks to seek
better profits• Return of mixed farming, but not as we know it• No reason to assume current trends in demand
will continue
The dairy story
• Footprint of dairy has improved in recent years– But due more to reductions in numbers than
anything else• Scope for further improvements through
genetics, housing etc• Dairy Road Map
Sourcing cattle feed
• Around 1/3 of global cereal produce goes into livestock feeds
• Competition for farmland• Export of sector environmental footprint
What is the future for the sector?
• Is reliance on imported feed sustainable?• Is big really better, and what will it take to
keep the public on board?• Will markets for dairy hold up, compared with
milk substitutes?• What about new business opportunities for
the sector?– Pharmaceuticals, biorefinery
