nations in transit 2013: overall democracy scores · nations in transit 2013: overall democracy...

Nations in Transit 2013: Overall Democracy Scores

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Slo

ven

ia

Est

on

ia

Lat

via

Cze

ch R

epu

bli

c

Po

lan

d

Lit

hu

ania

Slo

vak

ia

Hu

ngar

y

Bu

lgar

ia

Ro

man

ia

Cro

atia

Ser

bia

Mon

ten

egro

Mac

edo

nia

Alb

ania

Bo

snia

-Her

zeg

ov

ina

Geo

rgia

Mold

ova

Uk

rain

e

Ko

sovo

Arm

enia

Ky

rgy

zsta

n

Ru

ssia

Taj

ikis

tan

Kaz

akh

stan

Aze

rbai

jan

Bel

arus

Tu

rkm

enis

tan

Uzb

ekis

tan

NEW EU STATES THE BALKANS EURASIAN STATES

Strongest

Weakest

Consolidated Democracies

1.00-2.99

Consolidated Authoritarian

Regimes

6.00-7.00

Transitional

Governments

4.00-4.99

Semi-Consolidated

Democracies

3.00-3.99

Semi-

Consolidated

Authoritarian

Regimes

5.00-5.99

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2013 ratings

reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2012.

Democracy Score Changes, NIT 2013 vs. 2012

6

17

6 Status Quo

Declines

Improvements

1

7

2

NEW EU MEMBERS

Average Democracy Score: 2.47

3 4

THE BALKANS


2

6

4

EURASIAN STATES


Democracy Scores declined in 59 percent of NIT countries. Although new EU states have among the highest democracy scores of

the surveyed region, more of these countries (70 percent) declined in NIT 2013 than in any other subregion.

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2013 ratings reflect the

period January 1 through December 31, 2012, while the 2012 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2011.

Net Changes in Democracy Scores, NIT 2013 vs. 2005

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3M

old

ova

Geo

rgia

Cze

ch R

epu

bli

c

Cro

atia

Ser

bia

Ko

sovo

Lat

via

-1

-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

Mon

ten

egro

Mac

edo

nia

Bel

arus

Lit

hu

ania

Ro

man

ia

Po

lan

d

Arm

enia

Slo

ven

ia

Alb

ania

Bo

snia

Kaz

akh

stan

Ky

rgy

zsta

n

Uk

rain

e

Taj

ikis

tan

Uzb

ekis

tan

Slo

vak

ia

Ru

ssia

Aze

rbai

jan

Hu

ngar

y

DECLINES

Net

Ch

an

ges

in

Dem

ocr

acy

Sco

re,

NIT

20

13

vs.

20

05

NEW EU STATES

THE BALKANS

EURASIAN STATES

IMPROVEMENTS


reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2012, while the 2005 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2004. Data from NIT

2005 were selected in order to compare current Democracy Scores with those during the 2004 round of EU enlargement.

Only countries engaged in EU integration have experienced improvements since NIT 2005. However, Hungary, which was

among the first Central European states to enter the EU, has declined more than any other country in that period.

Net

Ch

an

ges

in

Dem

ocr

acy

Sco

re,

NIT

20

13

vs.

20

05

Net Changes in Democracy Scores, NIT 2013 vs. 2005: Countries that

entered the EU during the 2004 and 2007 rounds of enlargement

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Czech

Republic

Latvia

-1

-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0Lithuania

Romania

NIT 2008 Poland Slovenia

Bulgaria

NIT 2008 Slovakia Hungary

DECLINES IMPROVEMENTS

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The NIT ratings reflect

the period January 1 through December 31 of the year preceding the publication. Data from NIT 2005 and 2008 were selected in order to compare

current Democracy Scores with those during the 2004 and 2007 rounds of EU enlargement.

Of the countries that entered the EU in 2004, only the Czech Republic and Latvia have improved since their accession.

Estonia’s Democracy Score did not experience a net change between NIT 2005 and NIT 2013.

Net

Ch

an

ges

in

Dem

ocr

acy

Sco

re,

NIT

20

13

vs.

20

05

Net

Ch

an

ges

in

Dem

ocr

acy

Sco

re,

NIT

20

13

vs.

20

05

/20

08

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Slovenia Estonia Latvia

Czech

Republic Poland Lithuania Slovakia Hungary Bulgaria RomaniaN

IT D

emo

cra

cy S

core

s

Consolidated

Democracies

1.00–2.99

Hungary is close to falling out of the Consolidated Democracies category

Semi-

Consolidated

Democracies

3.00-3.99

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The NIT ratings

reflect the period January 1 through December 31 of the year preceding the publication.

Hungary’s Democracy Score has declined since NIT 2006

NIT

Dem

ocr

acy

Sco

res

Average Democracy Scores (DS) of EU Entrants and Candidates

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The NIT ratings reflect the

period January 1 through December 31 of the year preceding the publication.

The countries that entered the EU in the 2004 round of enlargement had a much higher average DS at the time than Croatia in NIT

2013. Croatia will accede to the EU on 1 July 2013. Candidate and potential candidate countries are performing even worse.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2004 Entrants

NIT DS 2005

2007 Entrants

NIT DS 2008

Acceding Country

NIT DS 2013

Candidates

NIT DS 2013

Potential Candidates

NIT DS 2013

2004 ENTRANTS: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,

Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia

2007 ENTRANTS: Bulgaria and Romania

ACCEDING COUNTRY: Croatia CANDIDATES: Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia

POTENTIAL CANDIDATES: Albania, Bosnia and

Herzegovina, and Kosovo

Strongest

Weakest

2013 Overview: New EU States

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Slovenia Estonia Latvia

Czech

Republic Poland Lithuania Slovakia Hungary Bulgaria Romania

Electoral Process Civil Society Independent Media

National Democratic Governance Local Democratic Governance Judicial Indepenence

Corruption

Strongest

Weakest

New EU states experienced the most declines in independent media (3) and corruption (2). Latvia was the only country in the group to

improve its corruption rating in NIT 2013.


period January 1 through December 31, 2012.

2013 Overview: The Balkans

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Croatia Serbia Montenegro Macedonia Albania

Bosnia &

Herzegovina Kosovo

Electoral Process Civil Society Independent MediaNational Democratic Governance Local Democratic Governance Judicial IndepenenceCorruption

Strongest

Weakest

The ratings of the Balkan countries mostly stagnated in NIT 2013, except on corruption, for which they declined in Albania, Bosnia,

and Kosovo.



2013 Overview: Eurasian States

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2

3

4

5

6

7

Georgia Moldova Ukraine Armenia Kyrgyzstan Russia Tajikistan Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Belarus Turkmenistan Uzbekistan

Electoral Process Civil Society Independent Media

National Democratic Governance Local Democratic Governance Judicial Independence

Corruption

Strongest

Weakest

As expected, countries in this subregion mostly declined, with the exception of a few improvements in Georgia, Armenia, and

Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan was upgraded to a semi-consolidated authoritarian regime, joining Armenia and Kosovo in that category.

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2013 ratings reflect

the period January 1 through December 31, 2012.

2013 Overview: New EU States, the Balkans, and Eurasian States

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2

3

4

5

6

7

New EU States The Balkans Eurasian States

Electoral Process Civil Society Independent MediaNational Democratic Governance Local Democratic Governance Judicial IndepenenceCorruption

Strongest

Weakest

New EU states perform better than the other subregions in every category. Their weakest categories are independent media, national

democratic governance, and corruption. The same categories, along with judicial independence, are also the weakest indicators in the

Balkans.



Significant Ratings Changes, NIT 2013 vs. 2008: New EU Members

-1.25

-1

-0.75

-0.5

-0.25

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

Slovakia Lithuania Poland Bulgaria Romania HungaryImprovement

Decline

INDEPENDENT MEDIA • NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE • CORRUPTION


period January 1 through December 31, 2012, while the 2008 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2007.

Compared with five years ago, some new EU members experienced significant declines in independent media, national democratic

governance, and corruption. The exceptions were Poland and Lithuania, which improved in national democratic governance and

corruption, respectively.

Democracy Gap Across the Balkans, NIT 2013

Electoral

Process

Civil Society

Independent

Media

National

Democratic

Governance

Local

Democratic

Governance

Judicial

Framework and

Independence

Corruption Kosovo

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Albania

Macedonia

Montenegro

Serbia

Croatia

NIT 2013



Countries with the worst ratings take up the greatest area on the graph. For example, a country with the absolute worst ratings would

fill the entire graph, while a country with a perfect score would not be visible at all.

Democracy Gap Across Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia,

NIT 2013

Electoral Process

Civil Society

Independent Media

National

Democratic

Governance

Local Democratic

Governance

Judicial Framework

and Independence

Corruption

Russia

Ukraine

Albania

Croatia

Romania

Slovenia

NIT 2013

Countries with the worst ratings take up the greatest area on the graph. For example, a country with the absolute worst ratings

would fill the entire graph, while a country with a perfect score would not be visible at all.



Democracy Gap Across Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia,

Regional Averages in NIT 2013

Electoral Process

Civil Society

Independent

Media

National

Democratic

Governance

Local Democratic

Governance

Judicial

Framework and

Independence

Corruption

Eurasian States

The Balkans

New EU States

NIT 2013

Countries with the worst ratings take up the greatest area on the graph. For example, a country with the absolute worst ratings

would fill the entire graph, while a country with a perfect score would not be visible at all.



A bad year for NGOs: Seven countries declined on Civil Society

in NIT 2013

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 Civil Society RatingWeakest

Strongest Azerbaijan Hungary Kosovo Russia Belarus Tajikistan Kazakhstan

Governments across all subregions of the survey demonstrated less tolerance for criticism from the civil society sector.

Reverberations of the Arab Spring were still felt in Eurasia, where governments passed increasingly restrictive laws and cracked

down harshly on demonstrations. Civil society organizations in Central Europe struggled for financial sustainability.

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The 2013 ratings reflect

the period January 1 through December 31, 2012.

Eurasian States with Declines in Civil Society, NIT 2011–2013

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

Russia Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Tajikistan Belarus

2011 2012 2013

NIT

Civ

il S

oci

ety

Ra

tin

gs

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The NIT ratings

reflect the period January 1 through December 31 of the year preceding the publication.

NIT Years

Nations in Transit 2013, Eurasia Findings: Overall Democracy Scores

DECLINES in 6 states

IMPROVEMENTS in 4 states

STATUS QUO in 2 states

Most declines in Civil Society (5).

Azerbaijan and Tajikistan experienced

the largest downgrades in the subregion.

NIT 2013 marks the third consecutive year

of decline in Civil Society for Azerbaijan,

Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan.

Improvements in Electoral Process and

Local Democratic Governance have

gradually upgraded Kyrgyzstan to a Semi-

Consolidation Authoritarian Regime,

alongside Armenia and Kosovo.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Georgia

Ukraine

Moldova

Armenia

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Russia

Kazakhstan

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Overall Democracy Scores, NIT 2013

Strongest Weakest



3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ukraine’s Democracy Score is rapidly

approaching its pre–Orange Revolution level

Note: The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The NIT

ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31 of the year preceding the publication.

NIT

Dem

ocr

acy

Sco

res

NIT Years

Ukraine’s Democracy Score is 0.02 points away from its NIT 2004 rating.

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