1

FHSMUN 41: WE THE PEOPLES OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY UNITED

NATIONS

EUROPEAN UNION

SPECIAL SESSION OF THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION –– STATE OF

THE UNION 2020: BREXIT AND EXPANSION1

Authors: Joshua Pollock, Bryce Tapp & Chris Gebhardt

“Back in 2016, we gave the British people a choice. Against all predictions, the British

people voted to leave the European Union. I feel as certain today as I did three years ago

that in a democracy, if you give people a choice you have a duty to implement what they

decide.”

-Theresa May, former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (2016 - 2019)2

«La UE es un club de países decadentes, obsolescentes, en el que mandan unos pocos...»

-Carles Puidgemont, former President of Government of Catalonia (2016 - 2017)3

“The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been.”

-Romance of the Three Kingdoms, trans. C. H. Brewitt-Taylor

Introduction

This guide contains a wide range of topics, histories, and situations that will be addressed

by delegates to the European Union (EU). The first part (from pages 5 to 12) address the widely

discussed British exit from the EU, commonly known as Brexit, while the second part (pages 12

to 18) addresses EU membership expansion. Delegates are highly encouraged to familiarize

themselves with the structure of the EU4 and recent developments in the Brexit process5 before

resolving this topic in committee as the situation will continue to evolve. Delegates should also

be aware of the Council of the European Union’s powers and relationship with other organs

within the EU, as this is the body in which their deliberations will take place.6 Additionally, due

1 Date of Publication: January 21, 2020. 2 “Full Text of Theresa May’s Resignation Speech,” The New York Times, May 24, 2019, sec. World,

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/24/world/europe/may-speech.html. 3 HispanTV, “Puigdemont: La UE es un club de países decadentes y obsolescentes,” HISPANTV, accessed

December 12, 2019, https://wwww.hispantv.com/noticias/espana/360746/puigdemont-ue-union-europea-club-

paises-decadentes.(“The EU is a club of decadent, obsolete countries in which a few rule…”) 4 Please see https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/institutions-bodies_en 5 Please see https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/uk_leaves_the_eu 6 Please see https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/

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to the developing nature of each situation discussed below, delegates should answer each of the

guiding questions carefully before entering committee.

Delegates to the European Union EU) may be surprised to find the departure of the

United Kingdom (UK) from the EU (Brexit) coupled with the ongoing process of expanding EU

membership; a combination of contraction and expansion, an ebb and a flow. But this

contradiction –– that one of Europe’s most influential states, and a permanent member of the

United Nations Security Council (UNSC), is undergoing the process of leaving the EU while

other states engage in the process of attaining EU membership –– demonstrates the deep linkage

between these two topics. However apparent this contrast may be, these two issues augment one

another and should be treated as such, even though delegates may wish to concentrate on each

topic separately –– as this is the state of the European Union in 2020.

The Uniting of Europe

The interwoven and oftentimes complex history of European integration began as a

regional response to two successive world wars, a response that prioritized collective

engagement and shared sovereignty as a bulwark against conflict. The first formal step in

European integration began with the Inner Six7 founding members of the European Coal and

Steel Community (ECSC). This action represented the first phase of integration and expansion,

with each phase representing the integration of at least one European state into the full European

Communities (EC) or, eventually, the EU. Oftentimes, the phases of integration and expansion,

as seen in the following section, followed a historical cadence coinciding with systemic changes

occurring across the European continent.

As previously stated, the first step toward European integration occurred when Belgium,

France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands formed the ECSC, which was

the first European supranational organization in which member states willingly abdicated

domestic authority for a shared objective. In the case of the ECSC, a common authority was

agreed upon to govern the coal and steel industries of, at first, France and Germany before the

remainder of the Inner Six original countries agreed to sign the Treaty of Paris.8 According to

Robert Schumann, one of the Founding Fathers of the EU, the sharing of these strategic

resources, resources which were integral to building-up of both the French and German

militaries, would “‘make it plain that any war between France and Germany becomes, not merely

unthinkable, but materially impossible.’”9

The Inner Six founding members of the ECSC took a further step at integration with the

signing of the Rome and Euratom Treaties. These treaties, signed in March 195710, represented a

7 Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands signed the Treaty of Paris in 1951, the first

important step to beginning the process of further European integration. 8 Rasmussen, Morten, Brigitte Leucht, and Wolfram Kaiser. 2009. The History of the European Union : Origins of a

Trans- and Supranational Polity 1950-72. Routledge/UACES Contemporary European Studies Series. New York:

Routledge.

http://search.ebscohost.com.ezproxy.lib.usf.edu/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=236551&site=ehost-live, p.

194. 9 Bruce E. Moon, “Dilemmas of Free Trade,” in Introducing Global Issues, ed. Michael T. Snarr and Neil Snarr,

Sixth edition (Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2016), pp. 211-2. 10 Michael Gehler, “At the Heart of Integration: Understanding National European Policy,” in European Union

History Themes and Debates, ed. Wolfram Kaiser and Antonio Varsori (Basingstoke,: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010),

p. 92

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further push toward a central European authority. The Treaty of Rome established the European

Economic Community (EEC), which was the first substantial step taken to the creation of a

common market in Europe, while the founding of the European Atomic Energy Community

(Euratom) began the process of a regional merger of atomic energy sharing capabilities in

Europe. The EEC was not, however, the single currency and monetary system commonly

associated with the EU’s economics; that would emerge with the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. The

EEC possessed an executive authority and was given complete “power to establish a customs

union with internal free trade and a common external tariff; policies for particular sectors,

notably agriculture; and more general co-operation.”11 Because of the regional authority of each

three of these bodies (the ECSC, the EEC, and Euratom), the Treaty of Brussels (also referred to

as the Merger Treaty) was signed in 1965 and created a single Council while retaining the

independent integrity of the three bodies; it created the Commission European Communities, the

direct predecessor of the European Commission (the current executive branch of the EU).12

The integration of these three bodies into the EC signaled the beginning of European

expansion with more countries beginning to apply to and be granted membership into the EC.

(For ease of understanding, delegates should consider the order of European integration,

beginning with the European Communities followed by the European Union.) The next seismic

step in European integration occurred with the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty on 1

November 1993, which created the Three Pillars –– the European Community (formerly the EEC

and now the EC), the Common Foreign and Security Policy, and Police and Judicial Cooperation

–– of the European Union; it was the formal beginning of the EU as it is understood today.13

Additionally, the Maastricht Treaty (formerly called the Treaty on European Union) took the

single market conception of the EC (formerly the EEC) and introduced a single currency, the

Euro, in its provisions.14 The Maastricht Treaty became the foundational treaty for the EU; all

subsequent treaties made amendments to it.

f(x) = eu2?

The EU’s history of membership expansion, and further integration, may appear to be

exponential in scope, an inevitable force that will yield the totality of continental Europe

assenting to membership in the EU. But, as the previous pages have shown, EU membership is a

nuanced variable where domestic electoral politics cast a long shadow on much of the EU’s

supranational politics. This section will outline the phases of EC/EU membership expansion

without offering detailed explanations of the policy mechanism required for membership; those

mechanisms will be discussed in the next section.

Following the integration of the Inner Six into the EC, the next stage of membership

expansion began in 1972 when Denmark, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Norway “sign[ed] an

11 John Pinder, The European Union: A Very Short Introduction, Very Short Introductions 36 (Oxford ; New York:

Oxford University Press, 2001), p. 13. 12 Laursen, Finn, "The Merger Treaty: Creating a Single Commission and Council of the European Communities,"

In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, 2019. 13 John Pinder, The European Union: A Very Short Introduction, Very Short Introductions 36 (Oxford ; New York:

Oxford University Press, 2001), pp. 27-28. 14 John Pinder, The European Union: A Very Short Introduction, Very Short Introductions 36 (Oxford ; New York:

Oxford University Press, 2001), p. 27.

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accession treaty”15 after a failed 1963 membership application.16 Following referenda in Ireland

and Denmark in 1973, with the UK’s referendum occurring in 1975, three of the four countries

were admitted into full EC membership (Norway rejected EC membership in its referendum).17

This ended the first period of EU enlargement, in which, on 1 January 1973, Ireland, Denmark,

and the UK became members of the EC.

The next phase in the enlargement of the EC is known as the Mediterranean Enlargement.

Beginning with Greece’s application for membership on 12 June 1975, Portugal and Spain both

applied on 28 March and 28 July, respectively, in 1977.18 Greece’s membership was approved,

and the country became a member of the EC in 1981; Portugal and Spain became members in

1986.19 What characterizes this membership expansion, which occurred over the course of nearly

a decade, was that all three of these new members, following decades of dictatorial rule, were

new democracies and saw the institutions within the EC as a legitimizing force for their new

governments.20 The EU’s role in the expansion of democracy and human rights across Europe is

a continuing theme where the benchmarks for membership (as seen in the next section) represent

important milestones in the integration of democratic values in new democracies.

Following the Mediterranean phase of expansion, Europe itself continued to change.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the reunification of Germany in 1990, and the fall of the

Soviet Union the year after, the Western European face of the EC began to change.21 Amid these

upheavals, three states –– Austria, Sweden, and Finland –– became members of the EU (as the

Maastricht Treaty had been ratified by this point, see above) in 1995.22 (Norway, once again, had

applied for membership; it was rejected in a referendum, again.23) Further memberships were

approved for many mostly former Soviet states in 2004: Cyprus24, the Czech Republic, Estonia,

Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia –– the largest membership

expansion in the EU’s history.25 The 2004 enlargement signaled an expansion of the EU into

former Soviet territory –– a pivotal change in the European balance of powers. Further expansion

into former Soviet-influenced territory occurred during in 2007 when Bulgaria and Romania

joined the EU; Croatia became the most recent European state to be granted EU membership,

nearly twenty years after its independence from Yugoslavia.26

15 n.a., “A Timeline of the EU,” 12 March 2007, n.d., http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3583801.stm. 16 Charles de Gaulle, the then-President of France, vetoed the UK’s membership application citing a variety of

reasons including “ [Britain's] chronic deficiency in balance of payments,” the devaluation of the Pound Sterling,

Britain’s foreign trade practices, and necessity for Quebec to be granted independence (c.f. Nesta Roberts,

“Emphatic ‘No’ by de Gaulle,” The Guardian, November 28, 1967,

https://www.theguardian.com/world/1967/nov/28/eu.france). 17 n.a., “A Timeline of the EU,” 12 March 2007, n.d., http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3583801.stm. 18 John Pinder, The European Union: A Very Short Introduction, Very Short Introductions 36 (Oxford ; New York:

Oxford University Press, 2001), p. 176. 19 John Pinder, The European Union: A Very Short Introduction, Very Short Introductions 36 (Oxford ; New York:

Oxford University Press, 2001), p. 177. 20 John Pinder, The European Union: A Very Short Introduction, Very Short Introductions 36 (Oxford ; New York:

Oxford University Press, 2001), p. 25. 21 c.f. Ibid., p. 178. 22 Ibid, p. 179. 23 Pinder, 2001, p. 179. 24 Cyprus was not in the previous Soviet bloc. 25 n.a., “A Timeline of the EU,” 12 March 2007, n.d., http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3583801.stm. 26

n.a., “From 6 to 28 Members,” text/html, European Commission, June 3, 2017,

https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/from-6-to-28-members_en.

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The numerous periods of European integration that occurred after the founding of the

ECSC should be understood in their historical contexts: from the rise of democracy in

Mediterranean States to the end of the Cold War. Each of these periods influenced the continued

evolution of European membership, just as, for example, the influx of migrants from North

Africa and the Middle East have impacted the EU’s actions and policies in recent years.

A History of UK Euroscepticism

Since the end of the Second World War, Europe has continually moved toward greater

integration, as demonstrated below. However, for as old as European integration is, so too

suspicion has abounded, often by populist groups from both ends of the political spectrum. The

EU has been accused, in turn, of being undemocratic, opaque, and elitist; undermining the

sovereignty of member states; forcing unwanted economic liberalization and austerity; and

degrading national identity or burdening social welfare systems by allowing unfettered

migration.27 Generally, leftist Eurosceptics have focused on the EU’s economic impacts, such as

austerity and increased globalization, which drive inequality28; right-wing Eurosceptics have

been concerned with national identity and immigration, often leading to claims of xenophobia.29

There is one more important division within Eurosceptics, between “hard” and “soft”

Euroscepticism. “Hard” Eurosceptics are radically opposed to European membership, where the

only acceptable action is withdrawal, while “soft” Eurosceptics oppose certain policies and favor

reform of the current system.30

Overall, UK citizens have always been the least likely to identify as European31 and the

UK is the least integrated member state, with opt-outs in place omitting the UK from the Euro,

the Schengen free movement zone, and the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European

Union.32 In the UK electoral system, we see hard Euroscepticism from the Green Party and the

UK Independence Party (UKIP), while we see soft Euroscepticism from the Conservative Party

and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).33

Since the infancy of the EU, then the European Communities (EC), the UK remained at

arm’s length. The UK only sent one observer to the conference that would produce the Treaty of

Rome; this is both on principal and because joining in any free trade agreement would impose a

tariff on external trade that would come between the UK and its colonies.34 However, due to

concerns about being left behind economically, the Conservative government brought the UK

27 Euroscepticism or Europhobia: Voice vs Exit?. Jacques Delors Institute. November 2014. Pp.4–6,

http://www.institutdelors.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/euroscepticismoreurophobia-bertoncini-koenig-ne-jdi-

nov14.pdf. 28 Ibid. 29 Laleh Khalili (2017) After Brexit: Reckoning With Britain's Racism And Xenophobia, Poem, 5:2-3, 253-265, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20519842.2017.1292758. 30 Taggart, Paul; Szczerbiak, Aleks (2001). The Party Politics of Euroscepticism in EU Member and Candidate

States. Sussex European Institute. p. 7, https://www.sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gateway/file.php?name=sei-working-

paper-no-51.pdf&site=266. 31 “Britain Feels Less European than Anywhere Else in the EU.” What UK Thinks: EU,

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/media-centre/britain-feels-less-european-than-anywhere-else-in-the-eu/. 32 Mourlon-Druol, Emmanuel. “Brexit Debate Ignores UK's Privileged Position in Europe.” Bruegel, 31 May 2016,

https://bruegel.org/2016/05/brexit-debate-ignores-uks-privileged-position-in-europe/. 33 Ibid, p. 11. 34 Georgiou, Christakis (April 2017). "British Capitalism and European Unification, from Ottawa to the Brexit

Referendum". Historical Materialism. 25 (1): 90–129, https://brill.com/view/journals/hima/25/1/article-p90_4.xml.

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into the EC against popular support and some Labour objections in 1971.3536 When the Labour

government came into power three years later, part of their platform was a referendum on the

UK’s membership in the EC, and a referendum was held in 1975.37 However, due to funding

from business interests and division within the Labour party, popular opinion swung against the

attempted exit, with “Remain” winning with two-thirds of the vote.38 Despite lingering concerns

from some wings of the party, Eurosceptic language was removed from the Labour Party

manifesto by the mid-1980s.39

Shortly after, the government changed hands back to the Conservative party with

Margaret Thatcher becoming Prime Minister in 1979. Thatcher originally supported European

integration, campaigning for Remain in the 1975 referendum40 before signing the Single Europe

Act in 1986.41 Despite this, Thatcher engaged in political conflicts with Europe, fighting with the

European Commission to receive a rebate for the UK’s contributions to the EC.42 Integral to the

Brexit debate, the Fontainebleau European Council conceded to the Thatcher government “that

‘any Member State sustaining a budgetary burden which is excessive in relation to its relative

prosperity may benefit from a correction at the appropriate time.’”43 As economic ties between

members of the EC began to deepen into political ones, Thatcher, who championed free trade

and neoliberal economics, warned of “a European super-state exercising a new dominance from

Brussels”44 due to the Brussel’s “inclination towards bureaucratic rather than market solutions to

economic problems.”45 This tension, between further political integration into the EC and

retaining the UK’s political independence emerged within Thatcher’s own government.

“[Thatcher] believed that linking the pound to other currencies would erode Britain’s political

independence. Mr. Lawson, her chancellor of the Exchequer, argued that it would be better to lay

the groundwork for joining the European monetary system.”46 This hostility toward further

European integration, augmented by an increasingly dire economic situation in the UK, frayed

35 Ibid. 36 "Into Europe". Parliament.uk, https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/tradeindustry/importexport/overview/europe/. 37 Cockerell, Michael (4 June 2005). "How we were talked into joining Europe". The Independent. London, https://archive.ph/20130802205210/http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article224339.ece#selection-

1647.176-1647.181. 38 Ibid. 39 Georgiou, Christakis (April 2017). "British Capitalism and European Unification, from Ottawa to the Brexit

Referendum". Historical Materialism. 25 (1): 90–129, https://brill.com/view/journals/hima/25/1/article-p90_4.xml. 40 "Conservatives favor remaining in market". Wilmington Morning Star. United Press International. 4 June 1975.

p. 5, https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=M7QsAAAAIBAJ&sjid=lQoEAAAAIBAJ&pg=2825%2C608551. 41 Kuper, Simon (20 June 2019). "How Oxford university shaped Brexit – and Britain's next prime minister".

Financial Times,

https://www.ft.com/content/85fc694c-9222-11e9-b7ea-60e35ef678d2. 42 Ibid. 43 Spence, James. "A high price to pay? Britain and the European budget." International Affairs 88, no. 6 (2012):

1244. 44 Thatcher, Margaret. Speech to the College of Europe ("The Bruges Speech"). 20 Sept. 1988, Bruges, https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/107332. 45 Thatcher, Margaret. Margaret Thatcher: The Downing Street Years. Harper Collins Publishers, 1993, p. 727. 46 Joseph R. Gregory, “Margaret Thatcher, ‘Iron Lady’ Who Set Britain on New Course, Dies at 87,” The New York

Time, April 8, 2013, sec. Obituaries, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/30/magazine/brexit-northern-ireland.html.

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the Conservative Party, which played a key role in the end of her premiership47 in 1990 after

eleven years at Downing Street.48

The Road to Brexit

Influenced by Thatcherism and the right-wing backlash against the EU, the United

Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) was founded in 1991 (originally called the Anti-Federalist

Party).49 Though originally overshadowed by the Referendum Party, UKIP took center stage in

2006 when Nigel Farage was elected leader and expanded the Party’s platform from a single

issue to include a broader, conservative platform. Though UKIP principally won votes in the EU

parliament because of the EU’s proportional representation system, it represented a wider

sentiment of discontent, particularly throughout England, and threatened to spoil Conservative

elections.

In order to appeal to the Eurosceptic right wing and avoid losing votes to UKIP, then-PM

David Cameron promised to hold a referendum on continued EU membership if Conservatives

won the 2015 general election. Cameron personally believed strongly that the UK was better off

in the EU but held that Her Majesty’s government would abide by the results of the non-binding

election. As the referendum grew closer, the campaign remained contentious, with polls showing

a close race with a slight edge for Remain. Through this, Cameron maintained that the

referendum would be binding. When the vote came, Britain voted to leave the EU with 51.8% of

the vote; the next day, Cameron resigned.

Keep Calm and Carry On

As shock toward the results faded, the government went back to work. Theresa May was

elected leader of the Conservative Party and Parliament50, with its referendum mandate from the

electorate, voted to trigger Article 5051 thereby beginning the UK’s withdrawal process from the

EU. On 29 March 2017, the UK invoked Article 50 with two years to complete the withdrawal

process.52 Hoping to increase the Conservative majority in the House of Commons and

strengthen the UK’s negotiating position with the EU, May held a general election in 2017.53

Despite the government’s best intentions, the Conservative Party, who held a majority in the

House of Commons prior to the election, lost thirteen seats for a total of 318 seats won; the

largest swing belonged to the Labour party, which picked up thirty seats bringing its seat-share to

47 "1 November 1990: Howe resigns over Europe policy". On This Day 1950–2005. BBC News,

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/1/newsid_2513000/2513953.stm. 48 Whitney, Craig R. (23 November 1990). "Change in Britain; Thatcher Says She'll Quit; 11½ Years as Prime

Minister Ended by Party Challenge". The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/1990/11/23/world/change-

britain-thatcher-says-she-ll-quit-11-1-2-years-prime-minister-ended-party.html. 49 Hunt, Alex. “UKIP: The Story of the UK Independence Party's Rise.” BBC News, BBC, 21 Nov. 2014,

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-21614073. 50 "Theresa May to succeed Cameron as UK PM on Wednesday". BBC News. 13 July 2016,

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36768148. 51 The full text of Article 50 can be found in the Appendix. 52 "European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill 2017”, https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2016-

17/europeanunionnotificationofwithdrawal/documents.html 53 Boyle, Danny; Maidment, Jack (18 April 2017). "Theresa May announces snap general election on June 8 to

'make a success of Brexit'". The Telegraph, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/breaking-theresa-may-

make-statement-downing-street-1115am1/.

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262; 326 seats are required for a majority.54 Since this election, neither UKIP nor the Brexit

Party (led by Farage) have won a seat in the House of Commons.

In order to secure the votes required to procure a working government, a minority

government was formed through a confidence and supply agreement with the Northern Irish

Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).55 For better or for worse, the succeeding Brexit negotiations

now included a political party from Northern Ireland, a party that maintains Northern Ireland’s

territorial integrity within the UK, not as a part of the Republic of Ireland.

These negotiations with the EU lasted over a year and induced the resignation of several

prominent, Brexit-championing members of the Conservative government, including David

Davis and Boris Johnson.5657 Prime Minister May faced unrelenting opposition both within and

without of her own party: Remainers in other parties wanted to maintain closer ties to the EU

than her deal provided for while pro-Brexit Conservatives claimed that May’s Brexit deal left the

UK too close within the EU’s sphere of influence.58 Tensions within May’s government, and the

House of Commons, intensified regarding the issue of the Irish border (the border between

Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland). With the May government wishing to prevent a

hard land border on the island, a backstop agreement was drawn-up in that Northern Ireland

would remain within the UK customs union with a further UK-EU agreement being established

later.59 Failing to satisfy the DUP, which maintained the position of leaving the EU with the rest

of the UK, this deal never came to fruition.

May brought the withdrawal agreement to Parliament three times with some minor

alterations being made to details of the deal; it failed to pass the House of Commons at each

three of its votes.60 May twice had to request extensions to avoid the UK leaving the EU without

a deal (a “no-deal” Brexit).61 In June, after a failed vote of no confidence in December and a

failed attempt to compromise with the Labour party through a proposed second referendum, May

Theresa May resigned as Prime Minister.62

Boris Johnson, a leader in the Leave campaign during the Brexit referendum, succeeded

May as Prime Minister. Johnson reopened negotiations with the EU, effectively abandoning

May’s deal while reaching a new agreement on the Irish border in order to replace the backstop

54 Election 2017, Results, (2017), https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2017/results 55 "Conservatives agree pact with DUP to support May government". BBC News. 26 June 2017,

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40403434. 56 "Brexit: Dominic Raab and Esther McVey among ministers to quit over EU agreement". BBC News. 15

November 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46219495. 57 Stewart, Heather, et al. “May's Plan 'Sticks in the Throat', Says Boris Johnson as He Resigns over Brexit.” The

Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 9 July 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/09/boris-johnson-

resigns-as-foreign-secretary-brexit. 58 Cook, Lorne; Lawless, Jill; Casert, Raf (25 November 2018). "EU seals Brexit deal as May faces a hard sell at

home". AP, https://apnews.com/e1384dc86bcd418a9eeddd81fdb27f78. 59 Rowena Mason, Daniel Boffey and Jessica Elgot, “Brexit backstop: Theresa May to put new proposals to EU,”

The Guardian, 19 February 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/19/brexit-backstop-may-rules-out-

malthouse-compromise 60 “Brexit Votes: MPs Fail to Back Proposals Again.” BBC News, BBC, 2 Apr. 2019,

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47781009. 61 "EU Leaders Mull Risky Second Brexit Delay". Politico Europe. 9 April 2019,

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-delay-eu-leaders-mull-options/. 62 "Theresa May resigns over Brexit: What happened?". BBC News. BBC. 24 May 2019. Retrieved 24 May 2019,

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48379730.

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agreement.63 Not confident in the withdrawal agreement’s chances without a clear majority in the

House of Commons, Johnson negotiated a third extension to the exit date with the EU in order to

hold an election.64 Johnson won an overwhelming majority in the December 2019 election, being

given, by the electorate, a clear mandate to complete Brexit.65 In the same election, however,

Sinn Féin and the Scottish National Party (SNP), the Irish and Scottish nationalist parties gained

seats in Northern Ireland and Scotland, respectively, pointing to regional divides.66

“Get Brexit Done”67

Though it now seems clear the UK will officially leave the EU on January 31, 2020,68

Brexit is by no means finished.69 Following its departure, the UK will enter a transition period

where, while no longer a member of the EU, the UK must continue to follow EU rules and make

contributions to the EU budget.70 During this time period, the UK and EU must hold talks to

discern the future of the EU-UK relationship with increasing difficulty to negotiate a relationship

agreeable to both sides.71 This difficulty is heightened by the fact that the transition period is

only scheduled to last until December 31, 2020, and Johnson has already vowed to allow no

extensions.72 Because of this, a No Deal Brexit is still possible if no trade relationship is agreed

to by the end of the transition period.

Of those, especially within the Conservative Party, championing an exit from the UK,

there is an important divide between hard and soft Brexiteers. Soft Brexit, which features a

closer relationship with the EU and minimal disruption to the status quo, is generally supported

by those who voted to remain in the EU.73 Hard Brexiteers want minimal relationship with the

EU so that the trade agreements with non-EU countries can be formed giving the UK full

autonomy over its legislation and borders.74 Hard Brexiteers may consider a no deal preferable to

63 "Revised Withdrawal Agreement" (PDF). European Commission. 17 October 2019,

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-

political/files/revised_withdrawal_agreement_including_protocol_on_ireland_and_nothern_ireland.pdf 64 "Brexit: European leaders agree extension to 31 January". 28 October 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-

politics-50205603. 65 “UK General Election 2019: Who Won and What Happens Now?” BBC News, BBC, 13 Dec. 2019,

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50746464. 66 Ibid. 67 The Conservative Party’s 2019 campaign slogan. 68 Andrew Woodcock Political Editor. “Brexit Bill Allowing Britain to Exit EU on 31 January Passes Commons.”

The Independent, Independent Digital News and Media, 9 Jan. 2020,

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-bill-commons-passed-eu-today-boris-johnson-latest-

a9277281.html. 69 Adam, Karla. “'Get Brexit Done': Boris Johnson's Effective but Misleading Slogan in the British Election.” The

Washington Post, WP Company, 12 Dec. 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/get-brexit-done-

boris-johnsons-effective-but-misleading-slogan-in-the-uk-election/2019/12/12/ec926baa-1c62-11ea-977a-

15a6710ed6da_story.html. 70 Edgington, Tom. “Brexit: What Is the Transition Period?” BBC News, BBC, 20 Dec. 2019,

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50838994. 71 Ibid. 72 Ibid. 73 “How a Soft Brexit Differs from a Hard One.” The Economist, June 25, 2018 https://www.economist.com/the-

economist-explains/2018/06/25/how-a-soft-brexit-differs-from-a-hard-one. 74 Ibid.

10

a soft Brexit, because exiting the EU, unless they fully sever ties with the EU, Britain will still be

dependent on EU policy without any way to exert power over the EU.75

This concern over continued alignment without control is particularly true in the realm of

trade, where in order to have full market access, the EU claims the UK would have to agree to

trade rules, similar to Norway, much to the chagrin of hard Brexiteers.76 However, soft

Brexiteers counter that it is important that the UK has as few barriers to trade as possible to avoid

economic damage.77

Also of note are the aforementioned surge of nationalist parties in the previous general

election, especially given that both Northern Ireland and Scotland voted to remain in the EU

while England voted strongly to leave.78 The Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s call for a

second Scottish independence referendum was refused by Johnson.79 However, as discussed in

the next section, the delicacy of the current peace in Ireland remains important.

“The Troubles Ahead”80

On Thursday 18 April 2019, a small riot broke out in the streets of Creggen toward the

outskirts of the Northern Ireland city of Derry.81 As video footage would show, a large group of

people, assembled around a burning car, crowding the narrow streets.82 It was past sundown, and

the orange glow of the flames illuminated the streets, casting shadows on the people assembled.

A young woman, toward the back of a group, is seen. She holds her phone up and appears to take

a picture of the car fire. Then, from behind a corner, a masked gunman is seen before bullets are

sent out into the night killing the young woman who stood toward the back of the crowd. Lyra

McKee, a twenty-nine-year-old journalist, would be the first journalist killed in the UK since the

2001 killing of journalist Martin O’Hagan, with both killings linked to sectarian violence.83 In a

statement, the police placed the blame for the killing on the New Irish Republican Army (NIRA).

The killing of a journalist, and of an unarmed civilian, in peacetime by an armed paramilitary

group represents a clear departure from the idealism with which the Good Friday Agreement was

signed in 1998.84 The mitigation of uncertainty in Northern Ireland has diminished since Brexit,

with direct implications for the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

75 Mourlon-Druol, Emmanuel. “Brexit Debate Ignores UK's Privileged Position in Europe.” Bruegel, 31 May 2016,

https://bruegel.org/2016/05/brexit-debate-ignores-uks-privileged-position-in-europe/. 76 “Summary: Trade after Brexit.” Institute for Government, https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/summary-

trade-after-brexit. 77 Belke, A., Gros, D. The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements. Atl Econ

J 45, 317–331 (2017) doi:10.1007/s11293-017-9553-7 78 Hughes, Laura (30 June 2016). "EU referendum live: David Cameron resigns as UK shocks the world by voting

for Brexit". The Telegraph. Archived from the original on 24 June 2016,

https://web.archive.org/web/20160624072940/http:/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-results-

live-brexit-wins-as-britain-votes-to-leave/. 79 “Scottish Independence: Johnson Rejects Sturgeon's indyref2 Demand.” BBC News, BBC, 14 Jan. 2020,

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51106796. 80 James Angelos, “The Troubles Ahead,” The New York Time Magazine, January 5, 2020,

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/30/magazine/brexit-northern-ireland.html. 81 Susan McKay, “The Incredible Life and Tragic Death of Lyra McKee,” The New Yorker, July 26, 2019,

https://www.newyorker.com/news/postscript/the-incredible-life-and-tragic-death-of-lyra-mckee. 82 https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1119296453724209154 83 Ed O’Loughlin, “Lyra McKee, 29, Journalist; Killed Covering Northern Ireland Unrest,” The New York Times,

April 19, 2019, sec. Obituaries, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/obituaries/lyra-mckee-dead.html. 84 Patrick Radden Keefe, Say Nothing: A True Story of Murder and Memory in Northern Ireland, First Edition (New

York: Doubleday, 2019), p. 224

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Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are a part of the Schengen Area, which “render[ed

the border] virtually invisible and placat[ed] many Irish nationalists” in Northern Ireland.85

Now, with the UK’s withdrawal from the EU slated for 31 January 2020, the UK faces a

serious task of ensuring that paramilitary violence does not reemerge in Northern Ireland with

the recreation of a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. With a majority of citizens

“in Scotland and Northern Ireland … cast[ing] ballots in favor of remaining in the European

Union, … many of these voters now see Brexit as a reason to split from the United Kingdom.”86

While a majority of voters in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, this vote was largely

split between sectarian lines. “A majority of Protestants in Northern Ireland –– 60 percent ––

voted to leave the [EU]” while “[a] majority of Catholics –– 85 percent –– voted to stay.”87

Cognizant that a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

(complete with customs checks) would incite violence, the EU signaled its disapproval for any

deal that included a border as such.88 While Theresa May’s government failed to reach a tenable

solution within her government, Prime Minister Johnson’s proposal attempts to find a middle

ground by placing custom’s checks only on goods travelling between the two islands –– “a new

customs border in the Irish Sea.”89 While a UK report found “it very unlikely that these

paramilitary groups would return to violence” (as “all the main paramilitary groups that operated

during the Troubles remain intact”), it nonetheless remains a reminder of the possibility of

violence if the Good Friday Agreement is undermined.90

Delegates to the EU should be cognizant of delicacy surrounding any policy proposals

regarding the border between the EU-member Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. While

the mitigation of violence is beyond the purview of the EU’s authority, continuing its financial

contributions to “infrastructural, regeneration and employment initiatives as well as training,

capacity building, education, dialogue, mediation and community development projects with a

wide range of grass roots organisations” within Northern Ireland as a part of the PEACE

Program should be a priority in light of UK’s withdrawal from the EU.91

The Mechanics of Expansion

The EU has established exact criteria by which all countries must abide for the EU to

grant membership and accede to the country’s membership application. These stipulations are

grounded in Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union (the Maastricht Treaty), which states,

The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy,

equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons

belonging to minorities. These values are common to the Member States in a society in

which pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity and equality between

women and men prevail.92

85 James Angelos, “The Troubles Ahead,” The New York Time Magazine, January 5, 2020, p. 41. 86 James Angelos, “The Troubles Ahead,” The New York Time Magazine, January 5, 2020, 42. 87 Ibid, p. 44. 88 Ibid, p. 44. 89 Ibid, p. 44. 90 James Angelos, “The Troubles Ahead,” The New York Time Magazine, January 5, 2020, 44. 91 Jarman, Neil. "The challenge of peace building and conflict transformation: A case study of Northern Ireland."

Kyiv-Mohyla Law and Politics Journal 2 (2016): p. 29. 92 European Union, “Consolidated Version of the Treaty on European Union,” Article 2, (2016), p. 17.

12

The EU’s basic principles and fundamental values are grounded in a respect for, and

adherence to, human rights. With these principles grounding all of the EU’s actions, each

candidate for membership must adhere to each point written into Article 2. While each of the

nouns in Article 2, which are demonstrative of the EU’s human right’s commitments, one

warrants particular attention.

The EU’s commitment to “equality between women and men”93 stems from principles

written into the Treaty of Rome regarding pay equity in the workforce.94 This original

commitment was soon expanded to ensure that the EU focused on promoting “equality in

decision-making; dignity, integrity and ending gender-based violence … [and] access to finance

for vulnerable persons, including women.”95 Considering pay equity alone, the EU reports that

“[w]omen earn 84 euro cents for every €1 men earn … with the gap only decreasing by 1% over

the last 7 years.”96 Not only do women “take more time off from work to care for others,” but

“[w]omen tend to earn less per hour than men for the same job whether it is a highly-skilled

profession like a doctor or nurse, or a lower-skilled job such as a salesperson.”97 Delegates are

encouraged to have a thorough understanding of the challenges and solutions facing EU member

states and the ways in which current and potential candidate countries satisfy these Article 2

requirements.

Once a potential member demonstrates adherence to Article 2 principles, a second set of

criteria is used to assess the potential membership candidate country. Referred to as the

Copenhagen Criteria, they state that a potential member must demonstrate

stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect

for and protection of minorities; a functioning market economy and the ability to cope

with competitive pressure and market forces within the EU; ability to take on the

obligations of membership, including the capacity to effectively implement the rules,

standards and policies that make up the body of EU law (the 'acquis'), and adherence to

the aims of political, economic and monetary union.98

Combined, the criteria thus far have constituted the eligibility phase of the EU membership

process which, if countries demonstrate an adherence to these criteria, allows potential members

to begin the accession procedure. This five-step procedure begins with an application, the status

of the candidacy, negotiations, a screening process, and, ultimately, the signing of the accession

treaty.99

A potential candidate country first applies to the Council of the EU, which, if the

Commission favors the application and the Council endorses the application, grants a potential

93 European Union, “Consolidated Version of the Treaty on European Union,” Article 2, (2016), p. 17. 94 European Union, “Glossary of Summaries -- EQUALITY BETWEEN WOMEN AND MEN,” text/html, EUR-

Lex, n.d., https://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/equal_treatment.html. 95 European Union, “Glossary of Summaries -- EQUALITY BETWEEN WOMEN AND MEN,” text/html, EUR-

Lex, n.d. 96 Vĕra Jourová, “Equal Pay? Time to Close the Gap!” (Justice and Consumers Directorate-General, October 31,

2019), pp. 1-2. 97 Vĕra Jourová, “Equal Pay? Time to Close the Gap!” (Justice and Consumers Directorate-General, October 31,

2019), pp. 3-4. 98 European Union, “Glossary of Summaries -- ACCESSION CRITERIA (COPENHAGEN CRITERIA),”

text/html, EUR-Lex, n.d., https://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/accession_criteria_copenhague.html. 99 European Union, “Summaries of EU Legislation: Joining the EU - the Accession Process” (2016).

13

member the status of “a candidate country.”100 Once this has been accomplished, the candidate

country enters into negotiations with other EU members about the implementation of the EU’s

body of laws, with specific negotiations about implementation delays in specific cases occurring

being discussed.101 While these negotiations occur, the Commission assembles annual reports,

which are sent to the Council of the EU and the European Parliament. These annual reports

verify a candidate country’s implementation of each chapter of the body of laws.102 The final

stage in the membership process is the accession treaty.

The accession treaty must be approved unanimously by the Council of the EU and must

receive the consent of the European Parliament. The treaty is then signed by each of the

EU countries and by the acceding country and ratified by each EU country and by the

acceding country, each according to its own constitutional procedures.103

Delegates to the EU will find it helpful to apply the membership criteria and process to specific,

and ongoing instances of countries that are in the process of becoming members of the EU.

Current Candidate Countries

Currently, five countries have met the criteria for membership and are classified by the

EU as candidate countries: Albania, Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and

Turkey.104 Outside of Albania and Turkey, these countries were members of the former

Yugoslavia, which, after its dissolution in 1992, began over a decade of political instability in the

Western Balkans. Recognizing this reality, the EU has established its own goals in working with

these Western Balkans states in an attempt to promote domestic and regional stability. “[K]nown

as the stabilisation and association process,” the EU has committed itself to assisting the

domestic political stability and a “swift transition to a market economy” in each country,

promoting cooperation between each of these states, and facilitating an eventual EU membership

for that country.105

Of these five candidate countries, only three have opened negotiations with the EU:

Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey. Within each of these negotiations, each country is still at the

beginning phases of the negotiations regarding the implementations of each chapter of the EU’s

body of laws. For example, only sixteen of thirty-two negotiations have opened in Turkey’s

membership negotiations with only one chapter closed.106 Serbia has opened fourteen chapters,

closed two, with nineteen chapter remaining.107 Montenegro has opened thirty-three chapters of

100 European Union, “Summaries of EU Legislation: Joining the EU - the Accession Process” (2016). 101 European Union, “Summaries of EU Legislation: Joining the EU - the Accession Process” (2016). 102 European Union, “Summaries of EU Legislation: Joining the EU - the Accession Process” (2016). 103 European Union, “Summaries of EU Legislation: Joining the EU - the Accession Process” (2016). 104 European Commission, “EU Enlargement,” text/html, European Commission, n.d.,

https://ec.europa.eu/info/policies/eu-enlargement_en. 105 European Commission, “European Neighbourhood Policy And Enlargement Negotiations: Steps towards

Joining,” text/html, European Commission, June 12, 2016, https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-

enlargement/policy/steps-towards-joining_en. 106

European Commission, “European Neighbourhood Policy And Enlargement Negotiations: Check Current Status,”

text/html, European Commission, June 12, 2016, https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/countries/check-

current-status_en. See Turkey Negotiations status. 107 European Commission, “European Neighbourhood Policy And Enlargement Negotiations: Check Current

Status,” text/html, European Commission, June 12, 2016, See Serbia Negotiations status.

14

thirty-five and closed three of those negotiations.108 These three accession negotiations represent

a Europe, once again, closer to expanding its membership.

However, Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, has questioned the efficacy of the

current membership application process, “calling it ‘bizarre’” while also unilaterally vetoing

North Macedonia’s accession negotiations in the EU Council (as unanimous approval is required

to being talks).109 Departing from the status quo in Europe, Macron’s skepticism about the

inevitability of EU expansion, along with its necessity, should give delegates pause. With

“Romania and Bulgaria … still struggl[ing] with corruption”110 and the erosion of judicial

independence in Poland (an action that has received repeated condemnation from EU and UN

officials111), skepticism regarding the EU’s membership criteria and its ability to patrol its own

members has abounded. Similarly, with Hungarian President Viktor Orban reaching a decade in

office this year, the EU has, amid Orban’s consistent attacks on Hungary’s democratic

institutions112, began Article 7 disciplinary proceedings against Hungary and Poland.113 While

sanctions against either EU member are unlikely, as Hungary and Poland “have each vowed to

block such measures against the other,” reconsideration about accountability mechanisms ––

either during the membership application process or after membership has been approved ––

may be warranted.114

Delegates to the EU may have to answer the question: does the French policy represent

an extreme or is it the future of the EU? Because Article 2 and the Copenhagen Criteria continue

to be the foundation of the EU’s policies and actions, delegates should be aware, in all

deliberations regarding the future of EU membership and future EU members, that human rights,

specifically the human rights codified in the EU’s body of laws, is paramount. Delegates should

be knowledgeable about their country’s position regarding each candidate country and each

potential candidate country for EU membership.

“[I]t’s Istanbul, not Constantinople”115

Developments in Poland, Hungary, and in the Western Balkans are particularly prescient

for the EU, especially regarding Turkey’s membership application. Originally granted

108 European Commission, “European Neighbourhood Policy And Enlargement Negotiations: Check Current

Status,” text/html, European Commission, June 12, 2016, See Serbia Negotiations status. 109 Steven Erlanger, “Macron Steps Into a Leadership Vacuum in Europe, and on Some Toes,” The New York

Times, November 1, 2019, sec. Europe, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/world/europe/macron-france-eu.html. 110 Steven Erlanger, “Macron Steps Into a Leadership Vacuum in Europe, and on Some Toes,” The New York Times,

November 1, 2019, sec. Europe. 111 Joanna Berendt, “Polish Government Pushes Legislation to Tighten Control Over Judges,” The New York Times,

December 21, 2019, sec. Europe, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/21/world/europe/poland-judges-

independent.html. 112 Patrick Kingsley, “As West Fears the Rise of Autocrats, Hungary Shows What’s Possible,” The New York

Times, February 10, 2018, sec. Europe, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/10/world/europe/hungary-orban-

democracy-far-right.html. 113 Michael Peel and Valerie Hopkins, “Hungary Launches Anti-EU Broadside as Brussels Hearings Start,”

Financial Times, September 16, 2019, sec. EU eastern tensions, https://www.ft.com/content/b8137c28-d867-11e9-

8f9b-77216ebe1f17. 114 Michael Peel and Valerie Hopkins, “Hungary Launches Anti-EU Broadside as Brussels Hearings Start,”

Financial Times, September 16, 2019, sec. EU eastern tensions. 115 “Istanbul (Not Constantinople),” Flood, They Might Be Giants, 1990.

15

application status in 1999116, Turkey is still in the negotiations phase of the membership

application. However, when Turkey applied for membership in the late 1990s, very few in the

EU would have predicted gradual departure from EU customs and norms currently underway in

Turkey.

Specifically, Turkey has been in accession talks since 1987. While historical rivalries in

southeastern Europe and in the Aegean Sea present potential problems for Turkey’s EU

candidacy, it is essential that the EU and Turkey focus on the mutual critical benefits of Turkish

membership in the EU. Only after a deliberate analysis of the benefits and costs to both sides

may the EU and Turkey ultimately determine if full Turkish membership is in their mutual

interests. One critical issue for the two sides is the EU’s insistence that Turkey meet the

Copenhagen Criteria for EU expansion, whereas Turkish authorities have sought to draft a

compromise version, sometimes called the Ankara Criteria.117 Formally, the EU process for

enlargement requires that candidate countries enact legislative reforms, including adopting the

crucial common laws and policies often referred to as the acquis communitaire, receive a

unanimous vote from the European Council, and then open negotiations with all EU states. As

each EU member state has a veto over the accession of any candidate country, Turkey must work

diligently to overcome possible vetoes from Greece and Cyprus, as well as possibly from other

EU member states. While no one expects that these issues will be resolved in rapid fashion, the

EU and Turkey must either make considerable progress on these issues or risk a serious

deterioration of relations with potentially catastrophic long-term consequences.

Moreover, the primary focus in discussions of Turkish accession to the EU is almost

always on Turkey’s responsibilities and obligations as well as upon the economic benefits that

Turkey would enjoy by obtaining full EU membership. EU objections to Turkey’s candidacy

also include widespread European fears about how Turkey’s population would dramatically shift

power within the EU: If Turkey were to join the EU, its population of nearly 70 million people

would immediately make it the second largest EU member state behind only Germany and ahead

of France, Italy, and the United Kingdom (UK). Given that the EU is still digesting the influx in

population and cultures of the 10 members of the 2004 enlargement, the prospect of Turkish

cultural accession is foremost in most EU member states minds as the question of Turkish

accession continues to unfold. Further, Turkey -- upon accession -- would be eligible for

significant sums of economic development assistance from the EU. Given the amount of current

assistance as well as the projected needs if Turkey does join the EU, the EU is likely to adjust its

financial redistribution mechanisms before inviting Turkey to join the EU in order to limit the

total compensation for which Turkey would then be eligible -- thus changing the distribution for

other member states as well. 118

Nonetheless, Turkey’s impact on the EU would not be limited strictly to immediate

economic issues. As the EU deepens its process of integration, the EU’s Common Foreign and

Security Policy (CFSP) becomes an increasingly important element of successful political

116 John Pinder, The European Union: A Very Short Introduction, Very Short Introductions 36 (Oxford ; New York:

Oxford University Press, 2001), p. 181. 117 For a brief summary of the “Copenhagen Criteria,” please visit the following site:

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/enlargement_process/accession_process/criteria/index_en.htm

118 Commission of the European Communities, “Turkey 2008 Progress Report” Brussels May 11, 2008

p. 5. The full report may be accessed at:

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/press_corner/keydocuments/reports_nov_2008/turkey_progress_report_en.pdf

16

integration. Turkey’s 800,000-man army is the largest in all of Europe, and Turkey’s “strategic

location and good ties with neighboring Middle Eastern countries… could set a positive example

for democratization in the region and could greatly contribute to the EU’s security objectives.”119

Turkey is also a vital NATO ally and has always been a critical bulwark for NATO and the EU

against possible Russian expansionism -- especially since the Ukrainian events in 2014; Turkey’s

geostrategic position, bordering Iran, Iraq, and Syria, as well as its continuing tensions with

ethnic minorities, including its own Kurdish population, have also been highlighted during the

recent wars and military actions involving the Islamic State (IS).120 In terms of long-term

economic security, “Turkey’s accession would help to secure better energy supply routes for the

EU. It would probably necessitate a development of EU policies for the management of water

resources and related infrastructure.

In twenty years, Turkey went from applying for EU membership to the European

Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee's recommending that Turkey’s membership application be

suspended in 2019121 –– a devolution that can be directly linked to the domestic transitions

undertaken by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP).

The party was first elected in 2002 and has yet to be voted out of control of the government;

since that year, “the AKP government [has shown] growing contempt for political rights and

civil liberties” in Turkey.122 While changes to the Turkish constitution were made, changes made

through democratic referenda, a 2016 coup d'état attempt against the government began a series

of crackdowns on political opponents, followed by a 2017 referendum that expanded executive

authority at the expense of the legislature.123 This crackdown on dissident political views,

journalists, and perceived enemies of the state has opened a chasm between Turkey and the EU,

resulting in the recommendation that Turkey’s membership application be suspended. Delegates

to the EU should be aware of these developments in Turkey, as well as the EU’s response to

these actions, in order to adequately assess the future of Turkey’s potential membership to the

EU. While delegates will not have to resolve this question, they should be prepared to analyze

this question in a way that goes beyond simply addressing Turkish-EU relations, as changes

made to any one membership application will establish a precedent for the EU.

Potential Candidate Countries

Closer to home, however, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo are also potential

candidates for inclusion within the European Union that have not yet applied for membership,

though Kosovo’s status as a potential EU-candidate state is in dispute as five EU members have

not formally recognized Kosovo as an independent country.124 Moreover, in 2014, the EU

signed Association Agreements with Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine and the European

Parliament passed a resolution for all three countries which recognized their “European

119 Burak Akçapar and Denis Chaibi, “Turkey’s EU Accession: The Long Road from Ankara to Brussels”

Yale Journal of International Affairs Winter/Spring 2006 p. 54. 120 Anne Barnard, “Turkey’s Focus on Crushing Kurdish Separatists Complicates the Fight Against ISIS” New

York Times July 28, 2015. 121 Osman Orsal, “Turkey Condemns European Parliament Committee Call to Suspend Accession,” February 21,

2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-eu-idUSKCN1QA0MJ. 122 Freedom House, “Freedom in the World 2019: Turkey” (Freedom House, 2019),

https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2019/turkey. 123 Freedom House, “Freedom in the World 2019: Turkey” (Freedom House, 2019). 124 These countries are Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Slovakia, and Romania. See:

https://web.archive.org/web/20100712053129/http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setim

es/features/2010/07/09/feature-01

17

prospective” -- the first step for traditionally non-European countries to begin the process of

accession discussions with the EU.125

In the aftermath of Yugoslavia’s collapse and Kosovo’s struggle for independence, the

West Balkan state declared independence in 2008 attempting to secede from Serbia, a current

candidate country for EU membership. While Kosovo is still in the process of meeting both

Article 2 and Copenhagen Criteria, it has nonetheless made strides in acceding to these

requirements for candidate country status in the EU. A major obstacle in this process, however,

is the lack of unanimous recognition within the EU of Kosovo’s independence from Serbia. Five

EU Members do not recognize Kosovo’s independence, which, considering the unanimous vote

requirement within the European Council for membership to be granted, represents a

considerable obstacle. Nonetheless, the EU has urged its members to recognize the political

independence of Kosovo from Serbia. (Delegates should be aware that it is current EU policy to

include an asterisk with the first mention of Kosovo* in all EU documents and to footnote that

asterisk with the following: “This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is

in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of

independence.”126) In its most recent report, the European Commission identified areas of

success in Kosovo’s adherence to qualification criteria (political reforms and public

administration) while other areas are still in their infancy of meeting the aforementioned criteria

(fighting against corruption and organized crime, as well as judicial system reforms).127

Bosnia and Herzegovina, too, is in the process of meeting the qualification criteria

established by the EU in order to be granted membership. Emerging out of conflict and the

collapse of Yugoslavia, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been tasked with building its own legal,

judicial, and political system that not only will support long-term stability within its own borders,

but also satisfy EU membership criteria in order to begin the official process of membership

negotiations. In 2019, the European Commission published its findings about the current

progress of Bosnia and Herzegovina in adhering to these criteria, the Commission stated the

Bosnian-Herzegovinian authorities failed to answer twenty two of nearly 4,000 questioned

regarding its adherence to EU policy and that “Bosnia and Herzegovina needs to ensure the

functioning of the Stabilisation and Association Parliamentary Committee and develop a national

programme for the adoption of the EU acquis.” Similarly, while the country maintains its

Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU (as does Kosovo), Bosnian-Herzegovina

citizens enjoy the benefits of visa-free travel in the Schengen area. Of the major obstacles facing

the country’s qualification for candidate status is the lack of a nation-wide supreme court, “a lack

of harmonisation of legislation across the country and by weak institutional cooperation and

coordination” in the fight against organized crime and corruption, an inability to reform its

economic system beyond the current system, as well as a lackluster education system.

Before approaching the candidacy of either of these countries, delegates need to have a

thorough understanding of both Article 2 criteria and the specifics of the Copenhagen Criteria in

relation to the current political and judicial systems in both countries. While recognition by all

members of the EU has yet to occur, this should by no means impede the progress current

125 European Parliament. Resolution of 17 July 2014 on Ukraine. 2014/2717(RSP). 126 European Commission, Kosovo* 2019 Report, 29 May 2019: https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-

enlargement/sites/near/files/20190529-kosovo-report.pdf. 127 European Commission, Kosovo* 2019 Report, 29 May 2019, pp. 3-4: https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-

enlargement/sites/near/files/20190529-kosovo-report.pdf

18

undertaken by the European Commission and the other organs of the EU to ensure that both

potential candidate countries have the policy-mechanisms in place to implement the

aforementioned criteria.

Conclusion

The State of the EU in 2020 reflects the diversity inherent to the EU’s existence. While

the evidence above regarding the EU’s membership and relations with other countries may seem

fraught, delegates to the EU should not be discouraged. The EU, was born out of a desire to

mitigate the eventuality of war through closer connections between countries. Supranationalising

authority did not normalize the Franco-German relationship, it was, in fact, the beginning of a

process of reconciliation –– a reconciliation that has been so successful that the idea of war

between these two states (who went to war three times in a period of one hundred years) is now,

unimaginable. The challenges facing the Council of the European Union are not insurmountable,

as the solutions reached regarding each of these issues will only strengthen the European Union

itself.

Guiding Questions

1. What is the history of your country’s relationship with the UK withdrawal process? What

public statements have been made by your government regarding the planned exit of the

UK from the EU and the succeeding negotiations?

2. What is your country’s positions regarding the Article 7 disciplinary actions taken against

Poland and Hungary? What has the EU done regarding this action in recent weeks?

3. Does your country support Turkish membership to the EU? If not, why? What obstacles

has your government pointed to preventing Turkish accession? What actions and/or

policy initiatives can Turkey undertake/implement to improve its prospects of joining the

EU?

4. Does your government support the membership applications of Albania, North

Macedonia, Montenegro and/or Serbia? If not, why not? What actions and/or policy

initiatives can these candidates undertake to improve their respective prospects of joining

the European Union (EU)?

5. How does your government feel about prospective membership?

6. Does your country agree with the reforms proposed by France to the EU membership

process?

7. How does the future of the UK-EU relationship –– from trade, to security, to customs

checks –– look in the eyes of your government?

Documents

European Union, “Consolidated Version of the Treaty on European Union,” (2016), https://eur-

lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:12016M/TXT&from=EN

European Commission, “2019 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy,” (2019),

https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/sites/near/files/20190529-communication-on-

eu-enlargement-policy_en.pdf

19

Graphics:

Source: BBC Referendum results

Notes: Particularly of interest is the divide of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and London against the

rest of England and Wales.

20

Source: World Trade Organization

Notes: This Diagram displays the varying degrees of membership of various countries partially

in the UK. However, the UK has expressed discontent with a Canada style deal, seeking a

“bespoke agreement”.

21

Source: Created by CRS

Notes: Despite the June 2016 public referendum in the United Kingdom in which voters favored

leaving the EU, the United Kingdom remains a full member of the bloc until it officially exists

the EU (which is scheduled to occur by October 31, 2019, but may be delayed).

Iceland formally applied for EU membership in 2009 and was recognized as a candidate country

in 2010, but accession negotiations have been on hold since May 2013. In March 2015, Iceland’s

government requested that Iceland no longer be regarded as a candidate country, although the

government did not formally withdraw Iceland’s application for EU membership.

22

Appendix

Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own

constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.

In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and

conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking

account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be

negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European

Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified

majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of

the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph

2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously

decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council

representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the

European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the

Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the

procedure referred to in Article 49.