national weather service water predictions for life decisions hydraulics group reggina cabrera...

National Weather Service

Water PredictionsforLife Decisions

Hydraulics Group

Reggina CabreraOffice of Hydrologic Development

Hydrologic Science and Modeling BranchHydraulics Group Leader

Cecile AschwandenAlbert MomoSanja Perica

July 2006



Outline

Past, present, and future of Hydraulics

Incorporation of Coastal Models

Inundation Maps (?)

Evaluation of Hydraulic Models

Dambreak



Past

Status of Hydraulics

Present

Future

OHD

Field Offices

?



Status of Hydraulics

Present

Field Offices

OHD

Where are we?

???

???

???


Setting the start…

Field Office Feedback

OHD statusPlanPeopleSoftwareTraining



Software

FLDWAV

*AT series

DamAT

FldAT

SHRT



Recommendations of Models suitable for NWSRFS

Selection of Hydraulic Model(s)Technical RECOMMENDATIONS

FLDWAV DELFT HEC-RAS MIKE-11, 21

Operational Tests

Technical EvaluationSeveral data sets

Feedback

from

RFCs

MAPS



Hydrologic Model

Hydraulic Model

Tidal Model

Coastal Model

Precipitation Model

MappingMappingandand

Server (sServer (s))

Models

WQ

OHD Joint Projects



Difficulties

Hydrologic setting and calibrationhydraulic setting and calibrationcross-section informationwater levels data (gages, tide, etc.)

flow data (all conditions)man-made structures



Link to Coastal Models

NOS

SLOSH

ADCIRC

NCEP

OTHERS

Coastal Models

Hydraulic Models



HIGH Visibility

Will we run them in the future?

1-D 2-D or 3-D needed?

What is the interaction between models?

Most of the time Flow Forecasts

What means to Hydraulics Group? Select a hydraulic option to satisfy this

future possibility ?

Several Models in use, we don’t control them.

Coastal/Estuarine Models Details



WS Profiles Forecast

Hydraulic Model

MAPS

GISFLDVIEW

WEB

Inundation Maps

Hydrologic Model



1 Number of map scenarios

1 48.4 -77.599 40.577 447.99

1 47.625 0 0 445.91

1 46.85 0 0 443.83

1 46.84 0 0 443.83

1 46.5 0 0 443.83

1 46.2467 0 0 442.9417

1 45.9933 0 0 442.0533

1 45.74 0 0 441.165

1 45.4867 0 0 440.2766

1 45.2333 0 0 439.3883

1 44.98 -77.5558 40.5798 438.5

0 44.4538 0 0 437.2308

0 43.9277 0 0 435.9615

0 43.4015 0 0 434.6923

0 42.8754 0 0 433.4231

0 42.3492 0 0 432.1538

Map River Mile Latitude Longitude Thalweg

1984 Name of flood forecast map

48.4 475.5223 1692.8296 -999

47.625 473.3482 1574.3484 -999

46.85 470.442 1392.6216 -999

46.84 470.3957 1388.8903 -999

46.5 469.0605 10884.0742 -999

46.2467 468.1956 9105.6992 -999

45.9933 467.4252 7542.4292 -999

45.74 466.7634 6171.0713 -999

45.4867 466.199 4956.2461 -999

45.2333 465.7229 3867.4519 -999

44.98 465.323 2877.6511 -999

44.4538 464.5272 938.4684 -999

43.9277 463.7095 916.4625 -999

43.4015 462.8641 893.1454 -999

42.8754 461.9841 868.4618 -999

42.3492 461.0663 842.4289 -999

River Mile WSEL Top width WSEL (town)

FLDVIEW Input FilesFLDVIEW Input Files..xy filexy file .fcs file.fcs file



Map library and

inundation maps



Internet Mapping Server

FLDIMS

ArcIMS



Suggested for verification of inundation

High water marks…. Surveys

Photographs

Satellite Images



Questions to answer

Should we map?

GIS system?

Static vs Dynamic Maps



Verify flood maps using photographySt. Johns River, Florida.



MODIS sequence of 2006 Winter Flooding on the Red River of the North

Utility of Inundation Sensing for Discharge Estimation

3/28/2006 C/M ratio:

1.015 Estimated

Discharge: 5,510 ft3/sec

Measured Discharge:

6,610 ft3/sec

4/3/2006 C/M ratio:

1.114 Estimated

Discharge: 25,285

ft3/secMeasured

Discharge: 28,700

ft3/sec

4/4/2006 C/M ratio:

1.146 Estimated

Discharge: 29,443

ft3/secMeasured

Discharge: 33,200

ft3/sec

4/7/2006 C/M ratio:

1.341 Estimated

Discharge: 69,989

ft3/secMeasured

Discharge: 59,500

ft3/sec

4/13/2006 C/M ratio:

1.329 Estimated

Discharge: 61,436

ft3/secMeasured

Discharge: 68,300

ft3/sec

4/26/2006 C/M ratio:

1.185 Estimated

Discharge: 32,478

ft3/secMeasured

Discharge: 28,400

ft3/sec



Team Evaluation of Hydraulic Models

Mission: Evaluate selected hydraulic models to determine their capabilities and limitations in the technical area. The models will be tested for different data sets, providing a range of hydraulic conditions and different degrees of complexity. They will be reviewed against criteria to determine technical suitability.



Evaluation of Hydraulic Models of Hydraulic Models

Provide a focused direction for the hydraulic software NWS could use in the future

June 1st, 2006 to June 1st, 2007



Ed Capone

Lori SchultzBrian Astifan

Mike Shultz

John Halquist

Thea Minsk

Don Laurine

Janet McCormick OHD

Sanja PericaReggina Cabrera



OHDFLDWAV

USACE HECHEC-RAS

DELFTSobek

DHIMIKE-11, 21

Technical Evaluation Criteria

Several data sets

Software to be tested



DELFT



HEC-RAS

GUI

Fortran Programs

Dambreak



HEC-RAS



Suite of Models from HECSuite of Models from HEC

HMS

RES-SIM RAS

Inundation Maps

FIADAMBREAK



Suite of Models from NWSSuite of Models from NWS

NWSRFSHYDRO

RES-SNGLRES-J

FLDWAV

Inundation Maps

Forecast Warnings

DAMBREAK



MIKE-11 and MIKE-21

NCRFC and Red River



Status of work:

Conference calls

LOTS of support

MANY ideas

Lead and organize their ideas to keep going….



DamAT : Needwood DamDamAT : Needwood Dam



Needwood Dam, June 29,2006

I heard the news (6 AM, MDT) about a dam in MD while I was in Boulder making a presentation at COMET

I called OHD, HYD group, asked for a DamAT run at 8:30 AM and requested the results by phone

It was 10:30 AM and I had no results. I called from the airport and found out:

The name of the dam was not the correct one

The location needed to be checked

The DRGs were not available (1 : 24000)



Needwood Dam, June 29,2006

At 11:30 am before boarding I was told results were about to be ready ( the same I requested at 8:30 am)

At 5:00 pm I arrived in Washington and went to visit the dam to take pictures and decided on using this case to test our ‘MOST” advertised DamAT.



Actions Taken

Requested run at OHD with new data

Visited the site daily until the warning expired

Coordinated with WFO at Sterling

Coordinated with MARFC



Lake Needwood: Lessons LearnedTIME to compute results was UNACCEPTABLE

RESULTS were Questionable

DOCUMENTATION was NOT READILY FOUND

Field offices have not been trained and do not trust dam data

What is the bottom line?FACT: We are not close to be ready for DAMBREAK.

SOLUTION: We need to set a strategy to approach DAMBREAK



Technical Evaluation Criteria

1. Functionality and Capabilities of the model

2. Easy of Use

2.1 Setting

2.2 Calibration

2.3 Operations

3. Implementation and Integration of the model

4. Training, documentation and Support



FutureField Offices

OHDHydraulic Model(s)

Main Plan

Dambreak



Future and Dambreak

NEED RFCs/WFO COOPERATION

Started reviewing assumptionsof current tool(s) before continue using them (i.e. DamAT)



First meeting on September 18-22

Training • DELFT• HEC-RAS• MIKE-11 and MIKE-21Setting of models using selected data sets

Two more meetings in FY-2007

CONTINUE the EVALUATION OF Hydraulic Models



Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

Linked to Hydraulic Models

Probabilities and

Inundation Maps



Mapping withouta hydraulic model?

SHRT

(Simple Hydraulic Routing Technique)



QUESTIONS?

THANK YOU!THANK YOU!



You want to compare HEC-RAS

And

FLDWAV



InputInput

FLDATHEC-RAS



OutputOutput

Graphical :Graphical :High water profiles along channelStage and discharge hydrographs at all or selected locations“Poor man’s” animation3-D Plots Plots of input hydraulic parameters

Tabular :Tabular :Tables of hydraulic information at each computational time step

Database :Database :Data may be written to HEC-DSS or FLDDB database

Flood Mapping :Flood Mapping :HEC-GEO-RAS or FLDVIEW



Output: 3-DOutput: 3-DHEC-RAS



Output: Cross SectionsOutput: Cross Sections

HEC-RASFLDAT



Output: Channel ProfilesOutput: Channel Profiles

HEC-RASFLDAT



Applicability to DAMCATApplicability to DAMCATWhy not use HEC-RAS instead of DAMCAT?Why not use HEC-RAS instead of DAMCAT?

DAMCAT uses a simplified DAMBRK model (SMPDBK

No equivalent exists in the HEC-RAS family, so a full blown UNET model must be built and run.

This introduces all of the complexities of an unsteady model, the avoidance of which is why SMPDBK was developed.



IN SUMMARYIN SUMMARY

- The HEC-RAS steady flow component is simpler to use than FLDWAV and is well suited to hydraulic structure design.

- The HEC-RAS steady flow component is not applicable to unsteady flow computations such as NWS river and flood forecasting.

- The HEC-RAS unsteady flow component (UNET) has most of the capabilities of FLDWAV and all of the complexities inherent to unsteady flow modeling.

- HEC-RAS does not possess a simplified dam failure analysis procedure.

- HEC-RAS is not an NWSRFS operation.

- HEC-RAS is a windows-only application.



Types of flow in open channelsTypes of flow in open channels

DEPTH and VELOCITY at a given location

Steady Flow: No variation with time

Unsteady Flow: Varies with time

DEPTH and VELOCITY along the channel

Uniform Flow: Constant

Varied Flow: Varies



Gradually and Rapidly VariedGradually and Rapidly Varied



Classification of FlowsClassification of Flows

Froude Number:

Fr = V/√gD

Fr < 1 Flow is Sub-critical

Fr = 1 Flow is Critical

Fr > 1 Flow is Super-critical

Disturbance at the downstream end of a Channel …. Popagation of the wave

Sub-critical Flow : wave propagates upstream

Super-critical Flow : wave can’t propagate upstream.



Manning’s EquationManning’s Equation

Q= [1.486 /n ][A x R2/3 x S1/2]

Q= K x S1/2

K is conveyance and affects the answer of the model.



Why HEC-RAS ?Why HEC-RAS ?

Documentation

Troubleshooting

Training

Stable



LIMITATIONS for HEC-RASLIMITATIONS for HEC-RAS

Assumptions

Uses 1-D energy Equation

Eqs. Solved for gradually varied flow

Dominant forces are in the x direction

Channel slopes should be less than 1:10

Steady versus unsteady

One dimensional flow vs 2 or 3-D



HEC-RAS and NWS HEC-RAS and NWS OperationsOperations

Steady vs Unsteady HEC-RAS

Operational Data Ingestion

Execution Time



Setting of the ModelSetting of the Model

Developing the River System Schematic

•

Cross Section Data

•

Stream Junctions

•

Bridges and Culverts

•

Multiple Bridge and/or Culvert Openings

•

Inline Structures (Weirs and Gated Spillways)

•

Lateral Structures (Weirs, Gated Spillways, Culverts, and Rating Curves)

•

Storage Areas

•

Storage Area Connections

•

Pump Stations

•

Cross Section Interpolation

•

River Ice

•

Viewing and Editing Data Through Tables

•

Importing Geometric Data

•

Geometric Data Tools

•

Attaching and Viewing Pictures

•

Saving the Geometric Data



Show the GUI and CapabilitiesShow the GUI and Capabilities



Graphics and TablesGraphics and Tables



Examples for types of flowExamples for types of flow

Dambreak

Flood wave

Hydropower releases

Chanel with constant discharge

Flash flooding



Gradually and Rapidly VariedGradually and Rapidly Varied



Classification of FlowsClassification of Flows

Froude Number:

Fr = V/√gD

Fr < 1 Flow is Sub-critical

Fr = 1 Flow is Critical

Fr > 1 Flow is Super-critical



Manning’s EquationManning’s Equation

Q= [1.486 /n ][A x R2/3 x S1/2]

Q= K x S1/2

K is conveyance and affects the answer of the model.



Why HEC-RAS ?Why HEC-RAS ?

Documentation ?

Troubleshooting ?

Training ?

Stable ?

Dimensions ?



LIMITATIONS for HEC-RASLIMITATIONS for HEC-RAS

Assumptions

Uses 1-D energy Equation

Eqs. Solved for gradually varied flow

Dominant forces are in the x direction

Channel slopes should be less than 1:10

Steady versus unsteady

One dimensional flow vs 2 or 3-D



HEC-RAS and NWS HEC-RAS and NWS OperationsOperations

Steady vs Unsteady HEC-RAS

Operational Data Ingestion

Execution Time



Setting of the ModelSetting of the Model

Developing the River System Schematic

•

Cross Section Data

•

Stream Junctions

•

Bridges and Culverts

•

Multiple Bridge and/or Culvert Openings

•

Inline Structures (Weirs and Gated Spillways)

•

Lateral Structures (Weirs, Gated Spillways, Culverts, and Rating Curves)

•

Storage Areas

•

Storage Area Connections

•

Pump Stations

•

Cross Section Interpolation

•

River Ice

•

Viewing and Editing Data Through Tables

•

Importing Geometric Data

•

Geometric Data Tools

•

Attaching and Viewing Pictures

•

Saving the Geometric Data



Show the GUI and CapabilitiesShow the GUI and Capabilities



Graphics and TablesGraphics and Tables



Examples for types of flowExamples for types of flow

Dambreak

Flood wave

Hydropower releases

Chanel with constant discharge

Flash flooding



HEC-RAS and modeling flowHEC-RAS and modeling flowSub-critical

Super-critical

Mixed

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