national weather service nashville, tn monday, march 30, 2020 · below-normal favored > 33 norr...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: National Weather Service Nashville, TN Monday, March 30, 2020 · Below-Normal Favored > 33 nORR Climate Prediction Center Issued: 03/29/2020 Apr 04 - Apr 08, 600/ 2020 40 Above-Normal](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042115/5e92af106635853c37755192/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Saturday, April 11, 2020
High-Impact Weather Briefing
For Sunday, April 12, 2020
National Weather Service
Nashville, TN
Presented by Krissy Hurley
![Page 2: National Weather Service Nashville, TN Monday, March 30, 2020 · Below-Normal Favored > 33 nORR Climate Prediction Center Issued: 03/29/2020 Apr 04 - Apr 08, 600/ 2020 40 Above-Normal](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042115/5e92af106635853c37755192/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Saturday, April 11, 2020
What to Expect
Severe weather possible Sunday, including damaging wind and tornadoes…
• Rain and storms ongoing Sunday morning --- severe threat low
▪ Increasing confidence that the greatest threat for severe weather will be from Sunday
afternoon through late Sunday night
▪ Uncertainties remain…
▪ Morning-midday rain may inhibit larger severe weather outbreak in the afternoon/evening
▪ Range of possibilities exist with timing and location of storms through the day
▪ In addition, moderate to high confidence in heavy rainfall across much of the state,
with some locations surpassing 2-4” of rain…especially across southern counties
![Page 3: National Weather Service Nashville, TN Monday, March 30, 2020 · Below-Normal Favored > 33 nORR Climate Prediction Center Issued: 03/29/2020 Apr 04 - Apr 08, 600/ 2020 40 Above-Normal](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042115/5e92af106635853c37755192/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Confidence & Uncertainty In Sunday’s Severe Threat
▪ What will increase the confidence/threat of severe weather?
▪ System takes a more northwesterly track, could enhance severe storm potential
▪ More sunshine, more instability to fuel the atmosphere
▪ If this occurs, widespread severe storms capable of damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes
▪ What will decrease the confidence/threat of severe weather?
▪ System takes a more southeasterly track, could act to limit severe storm potential
▪ Early-day cloud cover/thunderstorms may inhibit the strength of storms during the afternoon and
evening…though to “what degree” remains uncertain
Regardless, storms will be moving rapidly (50-60+ mph)!
![Page 4: National Weather Service Nashville, TN Monday, March 30, 2020 · Below-Normal Favored > 33 nORR Climate Prediction Center Issued: 03/29/2020 Apr 04 - Apr 08, 600/ 2020 40 Above-Normal](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042115/5e92af106635853c37755192/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Track of System v. Severe Threat▪ Southerly track
▪ Decreases
confidence in
widespread severe
storms occurring
▪ Northerly track
▪ Increases
confidence in more
widespread severe
weather occurring
▪ Most likely track:
▪ MO bootheel to NW
TN to W KY
Storms will be moving
rapidly (50-60+ mph)!
L
L
![Page 5: National Weather Service Nashville, TN Monday, March 30, 2020 · Below-Normal Favored > 33 nORR Climate Prediction Center Issued: 03/29/2020 Apr 04 - Apr 08, 600/ 2020 40 Above-Normal](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042115/5e92af106635853c37755192/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Tornadoes possible, especially
afternoon and evening
Damaging winds 60-70+ mph
Large hail possible
Heavy rainfall of 2-4+” could
lead to flash flooding
Hazard Levels:
Severe Outlook for Sunday
![Page 6: National Weather Service Nashville, TN Monday, March 30, 2020 · Below-Normal Favored > 33 nORR Climate Prediction Center Issued: 03/29/2020 Apr 04 - Apr 08, 600/ 2020 40 Above-Normal](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042115/5e92af106635853c37755192/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Best Chance for Afternoon Severe Storms – If They Can Develop
![Page 7: National Weather Service Nashville, TN Monday, March 30, 2020 · Below-Normal Favored > 33 nORR Climate Prediction Center Issued: 03/29/2020 Apr 04 - Apr 08, 600/ 2020 40 Above-Normal](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042115/5e92af106635853c37755192/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Timing of Greatest Severe Potential with the Main Line
6-10 PM 9PM-1 AM12-3 AM CDT
1-4 AM EDT
2-5 AM CDT
3-6 AM EDT
![Page 8: National Weather Service Nashville, TN Monday, March 30, 2020 · Below-Normal Favored > 33 nORR Climate Prediction Center Issued: 03/29/2020 Apr 04 - Apr 08, 600/ 2020 40 Above-Normal](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042115/5e92af106635853c37755192/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Total Rainfall – Sunday thru Monday AM1.51.0 2.02.0 3.0 4.0+
(in inches)
![Page 9: National Weather Service Nashville, TN Monday, March 30, 2020 · Below-Normal Favored > 33 nORR Climate Prediction Center Issued: 03/29/2020 Apr 04 - Apr 08, 600/ 2020 40 Above-Normal](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042115/5e92af106635853c37755192/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Plan Ahead• Timing of greatest severe potential
AFTERNOON ANDEVENING (AFTER DARK!)
• Multiple ways to receive warnings
NOAA WEATHER RADIO, CELL PHONES, LOCAL MEDIA, ETC.
• Have your safety plan ready to go
STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY POSSIBLY PROVIDING LITTLE TIME TO REACT SO DO NOT
GO OUTSIDE TO LOOK!
National Weather Service – Nashville, TN
![Page 10: National Weather Service Nashville, TN Monday, March 30, 2020 · Below-Normal Favored > 33 nORR Climate Prediction Center Issued: 03/29/2020 Apr 04 - Apr 08, 600/ 2020 40 Above-Normal](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042115/5e92af106635853c37755192/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Saturday, April 11, 2020
What to Expect
Severe weather possible Sunday, including damaging wind and tornadoes…
• Rain and storms ongoing Sunday morning --- severe threat low
▪ Increasing confidence that the greatest threat for severe weather will be from Sunday
afternoon through late Sunday night
▪ Uncertainties remain…
▪ Morning-midday rain may inhibit larger severe weather outbreak in the afternoon/evening
▪ Range of possibilities exist with timing and location of storms through the day
▪ In addition, moderate to high confidence in heavy rainfall across much of the state,
with some locations surpassing 2-4” of rain…especially across southern counties
![Page 11: National Weather Service Nashville, TN Monday, March 30, 2020 · Below-Normal Favored > 33 nORR Climate Prediction Center Issued: 03/29/2020 Apr 04 - Apr 08, 600/ 2020 40 Above-Normal](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042115/5e92af106635853c37755192/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Confidence & Uncertainty In Sunday’s Severe Threat
▪ What will increase the confidence/threat of severe weather?
▪ System takes a more northwesterly track, could enhance severe storm potential
▪ More sunshine, more instability to fuel the atmosphere
▪ If this occurs, widespread severe storms capable of damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes
▪ What will decrease the confidence/threat of severe weather?
▪ System takes a more southeasterly track, could act to limit severe storm potential
▪ Early-day cloud cover/thunderstorms may inhibit the strength of storms during the afternoon and
evening…though to “what degree” remains uncertain
Regardless, storms will be moving rapidly (50-60+ mph)!