national truck plan: modernising the australian truck fleet fremantle, 13 june 2014 1
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National Truck Plan: Modernising the Australian Truck Fleet
Fremantle, 13 June 2014
Who is TIC?
• Truck Industry Council, formed 2001– Previously Commercial Vehicle Committee of the Federal
Chamber of Automotive Industries
• Promotes new trucks as: “Safer, Greener, Essential”
• 9 full members, 17 truck brands (March 2014)
• 3 associate members (engine & component suppliers)
Today’s Safer Trucks 2
Australian Truck Market: 17 TIC Member Truck brands
3Today’s Safer Trucks
Engine & Major Component Brands Represented
4Today’s Safer Trucks
5Today’s Safer Trucks
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
1870817923
20517
23544
31673
3473233499
3813136622
2865429393
27858
30745 30645 30100
Australian Truck Market (ALL > 3,500kg)Australian Truck Market by Volume
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Source of Australian Trucks
Total Truck Market: 30,745 Units (2012)
Today’s Safer Trucks
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NOTE: Australia total INCLUDES, all Kenworth, all Mack, local IVECO & local (most) Volvo
Total HD Truck Market: 11,378 Units (2012)
Today’s Safer Trucks
HD definition: All 4x2 and 4x4 over 39t GCM + all Multi-Axle
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TIC’s Proactive Stance on Emissions Performance
• TIC has been working with government to develop emissions ADRs since 2002
• It take over 60 post 2007 trucks to equal the PM emissions of just 1 pre 1995 truck
Today’s Safer Trucks
1 x Pre 1995
60 x Post 2007
EQUALS
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National Truck Plan (NTP) – V42014-2022
• Contains proposals that will assist government achieve its goals for– environment, – public health, and – safety
• Investment allowance restricted to trucks with Gross Vehicle Mass > 4,500 kg. Matches those trucks that are eligible for Road User Charge
• Assume Carbon Tax component NOT applied 1 Jul 14• A document updated 1-2 times/yr to adjust to policy
and market changesNational Truck Plan 2014-2022
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Plan seeks to address average age: Today’s technologies to modernise the fleet
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
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Proposed Incentives
• National Truck Plan offers government a 5-year proposal to modernise the truck fleet
• The proposed incentive is in two parts:1. A 15% investment allowance for new trucks meeting the
latest emissions standard2. A 25% investment allowance for new trucks exceeding the
current standard, such as alternative fuel vehicles and hybrids
• A potential funding option is:1. A Road User Charge varied by the emissions standard of
the vehicle (Fuel Tax Credit lower for older trucks). Note: Savings here help pay for the investment allowances
2. This option (outlined in NTP – V4) details an incentive plan that is revenue neutral (or cash positive) over 5 years
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
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Tax Credit vs Emissions Standard (V4 Proposal)
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
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Cashflow over 5-Year Period
Net revenue exceeds cost during year 2, and remains ahead.NOTE: By 2020, HVCI Reform model (Mass-Distance-Location) may be in place
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
Net for Year CumulativeFinancial
Year $m $m $mYear 0 2014-15 0.0 0.0 0 0Year 1 2015-16 235.5 250.9 -15.4 -15.4 Year 2 2016-17 338.9 278.2 60.7 45.2Year 3 2017-18 324.5 309.9 14.6 59.9Year 4 2018-19 315.2 321.8 -6.6 53.3Year 5 2019-20 292.8 298.6 -5.8 47.5
By end Year 5 1,507.0 1,459.5 47.5
Savings By YearIncentive Revenue Positive over 5
years
Cost of Investment
Allowance ($m)
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Cumulative avoided health costs: Targeted vs BAU scenarios
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
15National Truck Plan 2014-2022
Forecast
Additional 102,000 trucks over 5 years
required average growth rate
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Total Non-Budget benefits
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
Very Conservative; Fuel economy gains post 2017 >5%
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Headline Figures
• Total net revenue gain of $47million in 5 yearsCost savings could continue beyond the 5 years, or can revert to an alternative HV Charging & road funding model after 2020
• Total non-budget Benefits of between $3.57 billion and $7.03 billion by 2022
• Fleet renewal accelerated by 102,000 trucks
• Timed to extract maximum benefit from current HV pricing scheme before any HVCI Reform
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
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Government and NTP: Common Goals
• Ageing truck fleet and transport workforce The NTP aims to significantly reduce the truck fleet age and with
more modern trucks new (younger) drivers will be enticed to the transport industry
• Improving road transport safety The NTP will modernise the national truck fleet bringing new
trucks with the latest safety features (ABS, FUPS, ESC)
• Reduce road transport fuel use and emissions The NTP will significantly reduce the number of pre 1995 Trucks
on the road, replacing them with trucks that have the latest emission technology (Euro 5 and 6) and from 2017 new trucks will potentially benefit from legislated fuel consumption improvements in Europe, USA and Japan
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
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Government and NTP: Common Goals
• Increase productivity The NTP will result in a younger truck fleet, with new trucks
offering much higher levels of telematics data. New trucks with RFS will replace older trucks with non RFS compliant suspension systems. These features can be used for HML, just one example of increased productivity gained from a newer truck fleet
• Improved data sharing By replacing the number of pre 1995 trucks in the national truck
fleet with new trucks, the NTP will raise the level of truck telemetry and data gathering, much of this data cannot be gathered on pre 1995 (non CAN) trucks. This increased level of truck data could be shared and used by the broader Australian transport industry and government organisations
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
Thank you
www.truck-industry-council.orgRegular updates and monthly
truck market commentary
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
Tony McMullan, Chief Executive Officer – Mob. 0427 941281
Mark Hammond, Chief Technical Officer – Mob. 0408 225212