national survey of african americans

National Survey of African AmericansPrepared for BlackPAC

December 12, 2019

Voter EnthusiasmBlack voter enthusiasm remains high for both the general election and the Democratic primary contest.

Ø 75% of Black voters say that they are paying close attention to what is happening in politics and with the pending election, down somewhat since April (84%).

Ø 90% of Black voters identify as likely to vote in 2020, with 82% saying they are definitely going to vote. Ø 82% identify as likely to vote in the Democratic primary process.

2020 Democratic Primary ContestThe Democratic field of Presidential primary candidates has shifted since April, but Vice President Biden remains the top choice of Black voters.

Ø Joe Biden earns the vote of 38% Black voters overall, but 44% of those who identify as Democrats or Independents and say they are definitely going to vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state.

Ø Joe Biden is also the main second choice for Harris, Booker, Sanders and Warren supporters.Ø Party identification continues to be a long-term challenge for Democrats with Gen Z voters:

v Of Gen Z (18-24) voters, only 35% identify as a strong Democrat, with 17% identifying as weak Democrats, and 13% identifying as Independents who lean Democrat.

2

Key Takeaways

The IssuesHealthcare, Jobs and the Economy, and Racism and Discrimination remain the top 3 issue concerns for Black voters.

Ø 43% of Black voters identified health care as a critical issue.Ø Jobs and the Economy (39%) and Racism and Discrimination (34%) round out the top tier of issues.Ø Critical 2nd tier issues include Education (18%), the Environment and Climate (17%), Police Accountability (16%), Commonsense Gun

Reform (15%), Reducing Crime and Violence (15%), Housing (11%), Women’s Reproductive Rights (11%), Immigration Reform (11%), Criminal Justice Reform (10%), Voting Rights (8%) and LGBTQ rights (4%).

Contrary to the perception of Black voters as “pragmatic” and suspect of “pie-in-the-sky” policy proposals, Black voters overwhelming support progressive policies including Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, reparations, a wealth tax and free college tuition.

Ø 76% of Black voters favor free tuition at public colleges and with just 16% opposed.Ø 73% of Black voters favor taxing people with extreme wealth through an annual wealth tax with just 17% opposed with strong support

among Warren and Booker voters (82%).Ø 71% of Black voters favor providing reparations for the descendants of enslaved Black Americans with just 15% opposed, including 66%

support from Black voters with an immigrant background.Ø 65% of Black voters favor Medicare for All with just 21% opposed. Support is stronger with voters age 40-55 (73%) and Warren supporters

(74%).Ø 57% of Black voters favor the Green New Deal to address climate change with just 17% opposed. Support is stronger with voters age 56-

64 (65%) and Warren supporters (69%).

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Key Takeaways (continued)

View of the CountryDonald Trump continues to be a historically unpopular figure with Black voters who are likely to vote in 2020.

Ø 78% of likely Black voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.Ø 84% rate his job as president negatively.Ø 81% of likely voters say the country is on the wrong track.

Regardless of what Trump or his Republican allies say, for Black Americans – across age, education, income, geography – the economy is not working for them.

Ø 83% of likely voters say that economic conditions have not changed or have gotten worse.Ø This sentiment rings most true for Black voters over 55 (90%) and women (91%).

Black voters are clear in their desire to see Trump removed from office either through the impeachment process or the 2020 election.Ø 87% expressed that they will vote for the Democratic nominee in November 2020.Ø The vast majority of Black voters wants Trump impeached and removed from office (77%), although there is little faith that the Senate will

convict him and that he will actually leave office before his term ends (11%).Black voters show little confidence in Republican leadership but give higher marks to Democrats in the House.

Ø 80% of voters have a negative view of Republican Senate leadership with 71% viewing House Democrats positively.Ø 57% of Black voters view Speaker Nancy Pelosi favorably in contrast to a 45% unfavorable rating for Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

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Key Takeaways (continued)

Ø Online survey among 800 Black/African American registered voters nationwide.

Ø Respondents were recruited from a nationwide online voter panel.

Ø Conducted November 21-27, 2019.

Ø The margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups varies and is higher.

Ø Data was weighted by sex, age, ethnicity, education level, 9-way census region and likelihood to vote in the November 2020 general election to better reflect the composition of registered Black voters.

5

Methodology

Black voters are majority Democrats, women and most live outside of urban areas. Additionally, Black voters are diverse with 6% identifying as multi-ethnic and 29% who are within two generations of coming to America.

6

Men 45%Women 55%Fluid <1%

18-24 10%25-39 24%40-55 30%56-64 18%65+ 17%

No college degree 71%College graduate 29%

Household income <$60,000 62%Household income $60,000+ 27%

Urban 43%Suburban 30%Rural 27%

Composition of Surveyed Voters

Democrat 75%Independent 21%Republican 4%

7

Black voters continue to be on high alert, paying close attention (74%) to what is happening in the country with the vast majority (90%) planning to engage during the 2020 cycle.

2

2

6

7

83

In November of 2020, there will be a general election for President, U.S. Senate, Congress and other offices. I know November of next year is still a long way off, but how likely

would you say you are to vote?

Definitely going to vote

Probably going to vote

Chances are 50-50

Probably not going to vote

Definitely not going to vote

Veryclosely

Somewhatclosely

Not thatclosely

Not at allclosely

Very closely30

Somewhat closely44

Not that closely

18

Not closely at all7

How closely would you say that you have been following news and information about what is happening with politics and about

candidates?

8

Biden remains the preferred candidate for all cohorts 40 years old and older. Sanders wins Gen Z voters and just edges Biden out with Millennials.

2020 Democratic Primary Vote for President by Age

38

14

24

42

49

55

15

3025

129

5

116

1410

13 119 8 9 116 76

36 7 5 44 3 2

5 5 330

51 2

73

85

1 2 1

10

28

10 9 9 7

Registered Voters 18-24 25-39 40-55 56-64 65+

Biden Sanders Warren Harris Booker Bloomberg Buttigieg Yang Other*

9

Biden is supported by both men and women, although he does significantly better among Black women.

2020 Democratic Primary Vote for President By Sex

3833

43

15 1714

11 10 129 10 86 4

74 4 33 5

23 3 310

159

Registered voters Men Women

Biden Sanders Warren Harris Booker Bloomberg Buttigieg Yang Other*

10

Younger voters mostly lack a second choice while Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are the most likely to gain votes as candidates drop out over time. Joe Biden is the 2nd choice for Sanders, Warren, Harris, and Booker voters.

Second Choice 2020 Democratic Primary Vote for President by Age

17 1820

17 1713

1719 19 20

16

9

16

5

2017 16 17

13

810

13

1816

85 6

912

95 4 3

53

95

3 25 4

9

47

5 51 2

16

32

1410 11

17

Registered voters 18-24 25-39 40-55 56-64 65+

Biden Sanders Harris Warren Booker Bloomberg Buttigieg Yang Other*

11

What are the most important issues for you in the upcoming election for President? You can choose up to THREE.

48

10111111

1515

1617

1834

3952

LGBTQ rightsVoting rights

Criminal justice reformImmigration reform

Women's reproductive rightsHousing

Reducing crime and violenceCommonsense gun reform

Police accountabilityThe environment and climate

EducationRacism and discrimination

Jobs and the economyHealth care

Health care, jobs and the economy, and racism and discrimination remain the top 3 issues for Black voters.

12

The issue concerns of men and women are mostly the same, although more women name crime, housing and reproductive rights as priorities while more men raise the economy as a priority.


39

1212

67

1113

172020

3442

50








57911

1614

18161514

173435

54








Men Women

13

The concerns of Black voters who come from a recent immigrant background (within two generations) are nearly identical to their non-immigrant counterparts, although they are less likely to name gun reform as a priority.


79

713

1113

118

141618

3035

50








37

12101111

1618171719

3540

53








Immigrant Background Non-Immigrant Background

14

Black voters tend to think that Joe Biden will do the best job on nearly every issue with very little fluctuation regardless of the issue. In contrast, voters have little confidence that Donald Trump will be effective at addressing any of their core issues.

Best Job on Issues

2628

2523

26 26 26

19

13 12 1214

1214

118 7

1411

79

7 8

1410

5

128

4 4

11

5 4

10

52

52 2 3 4 32 2 3 3 4

243 4

2 3 42 34 5 4 3 3 4 4

1012 11

15 1411

13

Health care Jobs and theeconomy

Racism anddiscrimination

Education The environmentand climate change

Police accountability Commonsense gunreform

Biden Sanders Warren Harris Booker Bloomberg Buttigieg Yang Trump Other*

15

The exception to preferring Biden on issues is the strength of Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris on women’s reproductive rights.

Best Job on Issues

2824

15

25 25 26

20

1113

812 12 13

118 9

22

9 810

129 10

19

812 11

97

9

3 3

86

44 4 3 4 3 2 23 2 2 3 2 2

12

3 3 24

2 2 25

3 35 4 4 4

12 13 14 1311

13 12

Reducing crimeand violence

Housing Women'sreproductive rights

Immigration reform Criminal justicereform

Voting rights LGBTQ rights

Biden Sanders Warren Harris Booker Bloomberg Buttigieg Yang Trump Other*

16

Black voters have progressive issue positions on Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, immigration, reparations, a wealth tax and free college tuition.

76 73 71 6558 57

16 17 15 21 2617

Free college tuition atpublic colleges and

universities

Taxing people withextreme wealth thrughan annual wealth tax

Providing reparations forthe descendants of

enslaved BlackAmericans

The Medicare for Allplan

Changing illegal bordercorssing to a civil andnot a criminal offense

The Green New Deal toaddress climate change

Favor Oppose

Favor/Oppose - Issues

17

Regardless of what Trump or his Republican allies say, for Black Americans, the economy is not working them. 81% of likely voters say the country is on the wrong track and 83% of likely voters say that economic conditions have not changed or have gotten worse.

19

81

Would you say things in the nation today are generally headed in the right direction or would you say things are off on the wrong

track?

17

4538

Better About thesame

Worse

Is the economy getting...?

Rightdirection

Wrong track

6 73

7

71

Trump Favorable Rating

Very unfavorable

Somewhatunfavorable

Neutral

Somewhat favorable

Very favorable

18

Black voters strongly dislike President Trump, think he is doing a bad job as president and overwhelming prefer a generic Democrat to him.

78

22

62

Trump Job Rating

GoodExcellent

Vote for President

87

60

20

40

60

80

100Democrat Trump

Poor Not so good

19

Black voters also prefer Democratic leadership in the House to Republican leadership in the Senate…

Job Rating for Democrats Leading the House of Representatives Job Rating for Republicans Leading the U.S. Senate

25

46

6

21

71

27

Excellent Good Poor Not so good

612

46

34

18

80

Excellent Good Poor Not so good

20

…and have similarly disparate opinions about the Leaders of those two legislative bodies.

Favorable Rating – Nancy Pelosi Favorable Rating – Mitch McConnell

33

24

812

57

20

Very favorable Somewhat favorable Very unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable

611

33

12

17

45

Very favorable Somewhat favorable Very unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable

21

The vast majority of Black voters wants Trump impeached and removed from office although few predict that he will actually leave office before his term ends.

66

11

68

77

14

0

20

40

60

80

100 Strongly favor Somewhat favorSomewhat oppose Strongly oppose

Favor/Oppose – Impeaching Donald Trump and removing him from office

What do you think will actually happen with impeachment, not what you want to happen, but what will really happen?

22

4011

13

13House will not impeach

Senate acquits Trump

Senate removes Trump

Trump refuses to leave

Don’t know

national survey of african americans

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