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National Survey Results: Federal Vote Intention – Tight 3-Way Race June 25, 2015
2 Federal Vote Intention – June 2015
Environics conducted a live interview telephone survey of 2,003 adult Canadians, 18 years of age and over. The survey was conducted June 3-18, 2015.
The data was weighted by gender, age and region to match the Canadian census population parameters.
Among the 2,003 respondents, 1,541 people (77%) were decided eligible voters (7% will not vote and 16% are undecided or refused to say). The margin of error for a random sample based survey of 1,541 is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points (at the 95% confidence level).
Methodology
3 Federal Vote Intention – June 2015
Highlights
There is now a virtual three-way dead-heat between Canada’s major parties. The NDP (30%) narrowly lead the Conservatives and Liberals (28% each) in national vote intention but all three parties are within the margin of error of one another.
Another six percent support the Bloc Québécois (24% in Quebec) and five percent support the Green party
4 Federal Vote Intention – June 2015
Regional highlights
The NDP has a clear lead in Quebec with 37% support compared to 24% for the Bloc Québécois and 23% for the Liberals. Conservative support is very weak in Quebec at just nine percent.
Ontario is a close race between the Liberals (35%) and Conservatives (33%) with the NDP running a strong third (26%).
The Conservatives dominate in the three Prairie provinces, though NDP support in Alberta is strong by historical standards at 29%.
The Liberals (39%) narrowly lead the NDP (32%) in Atlantic Canada.
BC is very much a three way race: the NDP and Conservatives are tied at 30% each with Liberals close behind at 27%. Greens trail with 12 percent.
5 Federal Vote Intention – June 2015
Demographic highlights
In the past age and gender were significant predictors of party support in Canada. This was typically characterized by the Conservatives having much more support among older people and men and the NDP doing much better among women and younger people. We now find that Conservative support is only slightly stronger among men and older people.
Conversely the NDP has slightly more support among younger people and those with lower and mid-range incomes. It is notable that the NDP and the Liberals tie the Conservatives among men and the NDP is only slightly behind the other parties among those aged 60 or over.
Education has now emerged as the key determinant of vote intention. Conservative support is particularly strong among those with less than high school education and weak among university graduates. The reverse is true of NDP and Liberal support.
6 Federal Vote Intention – June 2015
28% 30% 28%
6% 7%
Conservative Party New Democratic Party
Liberal Party Bloc Québécois Green Party
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=1,541)
Vote intention – Decided voters
Tight three-way race. NDP two-point lead is within margin of error
7 Federal Vote Intention – June 2015
28%
22%
9%
33%
41%
48%
30%
30%
32%
37%
26%
24%
29%
30%
28%
39%
23%
35%
24%
15%
27%
6%
24%
7%
7%
7%
5%
9%
6%
12%
Total
Atlantic
QC
ON
Man/Sask
Alberta
BC
Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=1,541)
Vote intention – By region
NDP leads in Quebec; Conservatives lead across the Prairies; Ontario, BC and Atlantic are close races
8 Federal Vote Intention – June 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=1,541)
Vote intention – By gender
28%
31%
25%
30%
30%
31%
28%
29%
28%
6%
5%
7%
7%
5%
9%
Total
Men
Women
Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green
Conservative support is higher among men than among women
9 Federal Vote Intention – June 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=1,541)
Vote intention – By age
28%
24%
27%
27%
32%
30%
32%
31%
30%
27%
28%
25%
29%
28%
31%
6%
4%
7%
8%
4%
7%
12%
5%
6%
5%
Total
18-29
30-44
45-59
60+
Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green
Conservative support skews slightly older, Green support skews younger
10 Federal Vote Intention – June 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=1,541))
Vote intention – By education level
28%
36%
26%
29%
24%
30%
23%
25%
32%
35%
28%
28%
31%
25%
31%
6%
4%
10%
7%
3%
7%
8%
7%
7%
6%
Total
Less than high school
High school
College/Some Univ
University degree
Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green
Education now the most predictive demographic variable: Conservative support skews
strongly to those with the least education; NDP support highest among university grads
11 Federal Vote Intention – June 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=1,541)
Vote intention – By household income level
28%
24%
21%
27%
28%
31%
30%
33%
31%
34%
29%
29%
28%
27%
35%
24%
28%
30%
6%
5%
8%
7%
7%
5%
7%
10%
5%
7%
7%
5%
Total
<$30K
$30K - <$50K
$50K - <$80K
$80K - <$100K
$100K+
Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green
Conservative support skews slightly to higher incomes, NDP support is quite flat across income bands
12 12
Derek Leebosh Vice President, Public Affairs
Environics Research Group Ltd. [email protected]
416-969-2817
www.environics.ca