National Statistics Quality Review on International Migration Estimates

Update on taking forward the recommendations of the review

Emma Wright & Giles HorsfieldPopulation and Demography Division

Office for National Statistics

Overview

● Estimates of Total International Migration– Data Sources & Methodology– Trends

● National Statistics Quality Review– Recommendations

● Work and results to date

● Future plans & further information

Estimates of Total International Migration

● ONS produces estimates of Total International Migration (TIM) between the UK and the rest of the world:

● An international migrant is defined as a person who changes his or her country of usual residence for a period of at least a year

● Estimates of both inflows (immigration) and outflows (emigration)

Data Sources & Methodology

● International Passenger Survey (IPS)

– Continuous voluntary sample survey covering principle air, sea & Channel Tunnel routes

– based on intentions– does not cover all migration

● Estimates from IPS are adjusted for:– Switchers (those whose intentions change)– Flows between the UK & Irish Republic (Irish CSO)– Asylum seekers & their dependants (Home Office)

● TIM estimates have been produced since 1991 - earlier estimates were derived from the IPS only.

Trends in Total International MigrationT

hous

ands

of

mig

rant

s

Net gain

Net loss

Net gain

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Inf low Outflow

National Statistics Quality Review

● National Statistics Quality Review on international migration, commissioned before 2001 Census results were released

● Joint ONS and HO review

● Review Board– representatives from ONS, HO, OGDs, academia

● Aim of the review“ to make recommendations for continuation of, and changes to,

the current data, methods and outputs of UK international migration statistics ”

Review Recommendations

● Final Report published September 2003

● Main recommendations– Development of better estimates of total migration flows

– Use of existing survey and admin data sources for UK geographical distribution of migration

– Development of survey and admin sources on persons subject to immigration control

– Build need for data on international migration into new admin data sources

● Implementation Plan published January 2004

Work & results to date (1)

International Passenger Survey:

● New questions introduced in Jan 2004 on:– intended versus actual length of stay– short-term versus long-term migrants

● Further questions piloted for 2005– level of uncertainty on destination in the UK

Work & results to date (2)

● Comparison of IPS/TIM estimates with Census and Labour Force Survey (immigrants):– Census/LFS question on place of usual residence

1 year ago

– National totals

– Age/sex comparisons

– Regional comparisons

International migration to the UK

Year to April/Spring 2001: LFS, IPS, Census; calendar year 2001: TIM

International Passenger Survey

Total International Migration

Census Labour Force Survey

380.8 479.6 381.3 297.7

Age distribution of in-migrants to England and Wales in the IPS and the 2001 Census: persons

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90+

Age (years)

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f In

flo

w

Census IPS

Year to April 2001

Proportion of UK migrant inflows by region

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40

North East

North West

Yorkshire & Humberside

East Midlands

West Midlands

Eastern

London

South East

South West

Wales

Scotland

Northern Ireland

IPS LFS CENSUS

Year to April/Spring 2001

London: proportion of total UK in-migration, 1994-2002

LFS year to Spring; IPS and TIM previous calendar years

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Proportion of Uk inflow

LFS TIM IPS

Scotland: proportion of total UK in-migration, 1994-2002

LFS year to Spring; IPS and TIM previous calendar years

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Proportion of UK inflow

LFS TIM IPS

Work & results to date (3)

● Comparison of IPS/TIM estimates with NHS register sources (immigrants and emigrants):– persons registering (de-registering) with the NHS

whose previous (next) place of usual residence is overseas

– regional comparisons

– potential for local authority breakdowns

International migration to/from England and Wales, 2002

Totals (thousands)

National Health Service Central Register

International Passenger Survey

Total International Migration

In-migration 589.8 365.6 485.8

Out-migration 70.6 276.1 323.7

Proportional England and Wales migrant inflows: TIM and IPS compared to NHSCR, 2002

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45

Wales

North East

North West

Yorkshire and the Humberside

East Midlands

West Midlands

East

London

South East

South West

TIM NHSCR IPS

Proportional England and Wales migrant outflows: TIM and IPS compared to NHSCR, 2002

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45

Wales

North East

North West

Yorkshire and the Humberside

East Midlands

West Midlands

East

London

South East

South West

TIM NHSCR IPS

Work & results to date (4)

● Comparison of IPS/TIM emigrant estimates with receiving country immigrant statistics:– Difficulty in making such comparisons is well

documented

– Comparisons will focus first on EU 15, Australia, New Zealand, USA, Canada, South Africa

– So far, 13 of these 20 countries, have agreed to take part in the study

Work & results to date (5)

● Development of new data sources - requirements for migration statistics fed into:

– 2011 Census

– Continuous Population Survey

– Citizen’s Information Project

Home Office research

● Improved combining of IPS and HO data - investigation underway of coverage of groups subject to immigration control in IPS - asylum seekers, visitor switchers

● Comparison of statistics on persons subject to immigration control and landing card data with IPS data on non-EU immigrants

● Research into estimating unauthorised migrant stocks and flows

● Development of longitudinal survey of immigrants

● Feeding migration statistics requirements into development of enhanced arrival and departure recording systems and ID cards

Future Plans

● Research work on IPS - non-response, emigration filter shifts, new questions, etc

● Further work on use of LFS and NHSCR data to aid distribution of immigrants geographically

● Further comparisons of emigrant estimates with overseas immigrant estimates

● Investigation of administrative sources (e.g. DWP, DVLA)

● Research into methods for combining data sources (ONS Methods Group)

Further information

● Quality review report and Implementation Plan available on National Statistics website:http://www.statistics.gov.uk/methods_quality/

quality_review/population.asp

● Annual Reference Volumehttp://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/

theme_population/MN_no_29_v3.pdf

● Any further queries:emma.wright@ons.gov.ukgiles.horsfield@ons.gov.uk