NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AGROMETEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN

SEASONAL AGROMETEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN

KIREMT 2018

VOLUME 17 No. 27

DATE OF ISSUE: - OCTOBER 05, 2018

P.O.BOX 1090, ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA

E.Mail: nmsa@ethionet.et Fax: 251-11-6625292, Tel. 251-11-6615779

FORE WARD

This Agro met Bulletin is prepared and disseminated by the National Meteorological Agency

(NMA). The aim is to provide those sectors of the community involved in Agriculture and

related disciplines with the current weather situation in relation to known agricultural practices.

The information contained in the bulletin, if judiciously utilized, are believed to assist planners,

decision makers and the farmers at large, through an appropriate media, in minimizing risks,

increase efficiency, maximize yield. On the other hand, it is vital tool in monitoring crop/

weather conditions during the growing seasons, to be able to make more realistic assessment of

the annual crop production before harvest.

The Agency disseminates ten daily, monthly and seasonal weather reports in which all the

necessary current information’s relevant to agriculture are compiled.

We are of the opinion that careful and continuous use of this bulletin can benefit to raise ones

agro climate consciousness for improving agriculture-oriented practices. Meanwhile, your

comments and constructive suggestions are highly appreciated to make the objective of this

bulletin a success.

Director General

NMA

P.O.Box 1090

Tel: 011661-57-79

FAX 00251-11-6625292

E-mail nmsa@ethionet.et

Addis Ababa

Web site: - http://www.ethiomet.gov.et

አህፅሮት

እ.ኤ.አ ክረምት 2018

የክረምቱ ወቅት ዝናብ በሚያዚያና በግንቦት ወር ሇሚሩት የረጅም ጊዜ ሰብሎች የውሃ

ፍላጎት እንዲሁም በበጋው ወቅት እድገታቸውን ሇሚያጠናቅቁ የመኽር አዝርዕቶች ያሇው

ጠቀሜታ ከፍተኛ ነው። በተጨማሪ ከክረምቱ ዝናብ ባሻገር የበልግ ወቅት ዝናብ

በተሇይም በሚያዚያና በግንቦት ወር የሚኖረው የዝናብ መጠንም ሆነ በስርጭት ረገድ

በረጅም ገዜ ሇሚደርሱ እንደ በቆሎና ማሽላ ላለት አዝርዕቶች የዕድገት ሁኔታ አስተዋፅዖ

የጎላ ነው።

እ.ኤ.አ በጁን 2018 ሇክረምት ዝናብ መኖር አመቺ ሁኔታን የሚፈጥሩ የአየር ሁኔታ

ክስተቶች መደበኛውን ፈር ተከትሇው የጀመሩ ከመሆናቸው ጋር በተያያዘ የዝናቡ ስርጭትና

መጠን አብዛኛው የክረምት ዝናብ ተጠቃሚ አካባቢዎችን ያደረሰ ነበር፡፡ ይህም የተገኘው ዝናብ

የአፈርን እርጥበት ከማሻሻልም አልፎ ከሰኔ ጀምሮ የዘር ጊዜና የማሳ ዝግጅት በሚካሄድባቸው

አካባቢዎች በወቅቱ ሇመዝራት አመቺ ሁኔታ የነበረው ሲሆን አስቀድምው ተዘርተው በተሇያየ

የእድገት ደረጃ ላይ ሇሚገኙ የበልግ ሰብሎች የውኃ ፍላጎታቸውን ከሟሟላት አንፃር የጎላ ሚና

ከመኖሩም በላይ ከአፕሪል ጀምሮ ቀደም ብሇው ሇተዘሩ እንደበቆሎና ማሽላ ሇመሳሰለ የረጅም

ጊዜ የመኽር ሰብሎች በተሟላ ሁኔታ እንዲያድጉ የጎላ አስተዋፅዖ እንደነበረው ይታመናል፡፡

በሌላም በኩል ሇአርብቶ አደርና ከፊል የአርብቶ አደር አካባቢዎች የነበረው እርጥበት የግጦሽ

ሳርና የመጠጥ ውኃ አቅርቦት አንፃር አዎንታዊ አስተዋፅዖ ነበረው፡፡ ሆኖም በአንዳንድ

አካባቢዎች ላይ የነበረው ከባድ ዝናብ በተሇይም ባሳሇፍናቸው ቀናት በተከታታይ ዝናብ

በማግኘት ላይ በሚገኙ ቦታዎች ላይ የአፈር ውስጥ እርጥበት መብዛት፣ እንዲሁም በአንዳንድ

ከፍተኛ ቦታዎች ላይ የተከሰተው ከባድ ዝናብ ሇወንዝ መሙላትና ሇጎርፍ ተጋላጭ በሆኑ

አካባቢዎች ላይ ሇጎርፍ መከሰት ምክንያት ሆኖ ነበር።

እ.ኤ.አ በጁላይ ወር 2018 የተገኘዉ እርጥበት በአብዛኛዉ የክረምት ዝናብ ተጠቃሚ

አከባቢዎችን ያዳረሰ ከመሆኑ ጋር ተያይዞ አብዛኛው መኸር አብቃይ የሀገሪቱ ክፍሎች ጥሩ

የአፈር እርጥበት ሁኔታ ነበራቸው፡፡ ይህም ሁኔታ እየተካሄደ ሇነበረው የመኸር እርሻ

እንቅስቃሴ፤ የማሳ ዝግጅትና የር መዝራት ስራዎችን በጊዜ ሇማከናወን አመቺ ሁኔታ

የነበረዉ ሲሆን፤ አስቀድመው ተርተው በተሇያየ የእድገት ደረጃ ላይ ሇሚገኙ የረጅም ጊዜ

ሰብሎች የውኃ ፍላጎታቸውን ከሟሟላት አንፃር የጎላ ሚና ነበረው፡፡ በተጨማሪም በአርብቶ

አደርና በከፊል የአርብቶ አደር አካባቢዎች የነበረው እርጥበት ሇግጦሽ ሳርና ሇመጠጥ ውኃ

አቅርቦት አዎንታዊ አስተዋፅዖ ነበረው፡፡ በሌላ በኩል በአንዳንድ አካባቢዎች ላይ የነበረው

ከባድ ዝናብ፤ የአፈር ውስጥ እርጥበት መብዛት እና በአንዳንድ ቦታዎች ላይ ሇወንዝ

መሙላትና ሇጎርፍ ተጋላጭ በሆኑ አካባቢዎች ላይ ሇጎርፍ መከሰት ምክንያት በመሆን

በግብርናው ሥራ ላይ በጥቂቱ አለታዊ ተፅዕኖ ነበረው፡፡ ከዚህ ጋር ተያይዞ በላፈው ወር

በጎንደር፣ አዞ፣ ተስካ፣ በጊዳ አያናና በጽጽቃ በነበረው ከባድ ዝናብ በንብረትና በሰው ህይወት

ጉዳት እንዳደረሰ የሚቲዎሮሎጂ ጣብያ ሪፖርት ያሳያል፡፡

እ.ኤ.አ በኦገስት 2018 ሇወቅቱ ዝናብ መኖር አመቺ የሆኑት የአየር ሁኔታ ክስተቶች

ከመጠናከራቸው ጋር ተያይዞ የክረምት ዝናብ ተጠቃሚና የመኸር ሰብል አብቃይ በሆኑ

የሀገሪቱ አካባቢዎች ላይ በትግራይ፣ በአማራ፣ በቤኒሻንጉል ጉሙዝ፣ በምዕራብ እና

መካከሇኛዉ ኦሮሚያ፣ በጋምቤላ፣ በደቡብ ብሄር ብሄረሰቦች እና ህዝቦች ክልል፣ በአንዳንድ

የአፋር፣ የደቡብ ደጋማ ስፍራዎች እና የምስራቅ የሀገራችን አካባቢዎችን ጨምሮ

በመጠንም ሆነ በሥርጭት ረገድ ጥሩ የእርጥበት ሁኔታ ነበራቸዉ፡፡ ይህም ሁኔታ

ግይተዉ ሇሚሩ የጥራጥሬ ሰብሎች፤ በተሇያየ የእድገት ደረጃ እና ፍሬ በማፍራት ላይ

ሇሚገኙ ሰብሎች የውሃ ፍላጎት መሟላት ጥሩ አስተዋጽኦ ነበረው፡፡ እንድሁም ሇጓሮ

አትክልት፣ ሇዕፅዋት ልምላሜ፣ ሇአርብቶ አደሩና ከፊል አርብቶ አደሩ አካባቢዎች

ሇመጠጥ ውሃና ሇግጦሽ ሳር አቅርቦት መሟላት በጎ ጎን ነበረው፡፡ በሌላ በኩል በአንዳንድ

የአገሪቱ አካባቢዎች በአንድ ቀን ብቻ (ከ 40-120) በ ሚ.ሜ ከባድ ዝናብ የነበረ ሲሆን፤

በዚህም ምክንያት ማሳ ላይ ዉሃ መተኛትና ቅጽበታዊ ጎርፍ በተወሰኑ ቦታዎች በመከሰቱ

በተሇያየ የእድገት ደረጃዎች ላይ ባለ ሰብሎች፣ በአፈር ጥበቃ ሥራ እንዲሁም በሰው እና

በንብረት ላይ መጠነኛ ጉዳት ነበረው፡፡ ከነዚህም መካከል በወገል ጤና እና በስሪንቃ

በረዶና ነፋስ ቀላቅሎ በጣሇዉ ዝናብ በጥራጥሬ ሰብሎችና በአገዳ እህሎች ላይ ጉዳት

አድርሷል፡፡ እንድሁም በቦድቲ በነበረዉ ከባድ ዝናብ በንብረትና በእፀዋት ላይ ጉዳት

ነበረዉ፡፡ በአንጻሩ በዚህ ወር የተገኘው እርጥበት ቀደም ባለት ጊዜ የእርጥበት እጥረት

ሇነበረባቸው ቆላማ የአገሪቱ አካባቢዎች ሇሚኖሩት አርብቶ አደርና ከፊል አርብቶ አደሩ

አካባቢዎች ሇግጦሽ ሳርና ሇመጠጥ ውሃ አቅርቦት ጥሩ አስተዋፅኦ ነበረው፡፡

እ.ኤ.አ በሴፕቴምበር 2018 የነበረው አርጥበት በመጠንም ሆነ በስርጭት ረገድ

አብዛኛው የክረምት ዝናብ ተጠቃሚ አካባቢዎችን ያዳረሰ ነበር። በአጠቃላይ ባሇፈው ወር

በትግራይ፣ በአማራ፣ በአብዛኛው ኦሮሚያ፣ በቤንሻንጉል-ጉሙዝ፣ በጋምቤላ፣ በደቡብ ብሔር

ብሔረሰቦችና ህዝቦች ክልል፣ በደቡብ አፋር፣ በድሬዳዋ፣ በሐረሪ እና በሰሜን ሶማሌ

ከቀላል እስከ ከባድ መጠን ያሇው ዝናብ አግኝተዋል። የንድሮው የክረምት ወቅት ዝናብ

ከሞላ ጎደል መደበኛውን ፈር በተከተሇ መልኩ የመውጣት አዝማሚያ ያሳየ ቢሆንም

ከሰሜን ምሥራቅና ከምሥራቅ የሀገሪቱ አካባቢዎችም በመደበኛ ሁኔታ ዝናቡ ከሚወጣበት

ጊዜ በተወሰኑ ቀናት ግይቶ ተስተውሏል። በመሆኑም ከላይ በተጠቀሱት አብዛኛዎቹ

የመኸር ሰብል አምራች አካባቢዎች ላይ የተሻሇ እርጥበት እንዲኖራቸው አስችሏል፡፡

ይህም ሁኔታ የአፈርን እርጥበት ከማሻሻል እንዲሁም ተክሎች ከሚያስፈልጋቸው የውኃ

አቅርቦት አንጻር ገንቢ ሚና ነበረው፡፡ እንድሁም በሀገሪቱ በተሇያዩ አካባቢዎች በሚያዝያ

ተርተው በአበባና ፍሬ በማፍራት ላይ ሇሚገኙና የውሃ ፍላጎት ደረጃ ላይ ላለ የረጅም

ጊዜ ሰብሎች እንዲሁም በክረምቱ ወቅት ሇተሩ ሇብርዕ፤ ሇጥራጥሬ ሰብሎችና ሇቋሚ

ተክሎች የዉሃ ፍላጎት መሟላት አዎንታዊ ገጽታ ነበረዉ። በአንፃሩም ዝናብ አጠር የሆኑ

የሀገሪቱ ምሥራቃዊ አጋማሽ ላይ የሚገኙ ቦታዎች የተሻሇ እርጥበት በማግኘታቸው

ሇግጦሽ ሳርና ሇመጠጥ ውኃ አቅርቦት የተሻሇ ጠቀሜታ እንደነበረዉ ነው፡፡ በተጨማሪም

በወሩ ውስጥ አልፎ አልፎ ከተፈጠረው ጠንካራ ዝናብ ሰጭ የደመና ሽፋን በአንዳንድ

የሀገሪቱ ክፍሎች ላይ ከባድ መጠን ያሇው ዝናብ ተመዝግቧል። ይህም ሁኔታ ዝናብ

አጠር ሇሆኑና ዉሃን የማቆር ሥራዎችን ሇመከወን፣ ሇግጦሽ ሣር መሻሻልና የመጠጥ ዉሃ

አቅርቦት አመቺ ሁኔታን የፈጠረ ቢሆንም፡፡ በአንፃሩ ባሳሇፍነው የሴፕቴምበር ወር በረዶ

የቀላቀሇ ዝናብ እንዲሁም ቅፅበታዊ ጎርፍ በተሇያዩ አካባቢዎች ላይ በመደበኛ ባህሪያቸው

በእርጥበት መብዛት የሚታወቁና የመሬት አቀማመጣቸው ተዳፋትና ውሀ ገብ በሆኑ

አካባቢዎች ላይ የነበረው የእርጥበት መብዛት አለታዊ ጎን ነበረው ፡፡

ጠቅሇል ባሇ መልኩ ሲታይ በክረምት 2018 የነበረው የተስፋፋውና ጥሩ የሆነ የአፈር

እርጥበት ሁኔታ እየተካሄደ በነበረው የእርሻ እንቅስቃሴ እንዲሁም በአርብቶ አደሩና ከፊል

አርብቶ አደር አከባቢ የግጦሽ ሳርና የውሃ አቅርቦት በጎ ጎን ነበረው።

KIREMT 2018

SUMMARY

Kiremt is the season that fulfills the water requirement of long cycle crops that are planted in

the months of April- May and for Meher crops that achieve maturity during Bega season. In

addition to the Kiremt season rain, the Belg season rainfall particularly the rainfall amount and

distribution during the months of April and May has significant impact on the performance of

long cycle crops (maize and sorghum).

During the month of June 2018, Kiremt season rain bearing meteorological phenomena was

strengthened in amount and distribution over much of Kiremt rain benefiting area of the country.

In relation to this, Tigray, Amhara, Benshangul-Gumuze, Gambela, SNNPR all zones of Wellega

and Shewa, East and West Hararge, Fafen and Sity zones, Arsi and Bale, some area of Guji and

Borena zones, Afar region of zone one, three, and five obtained slight to heavy rainfall. This

situation might have positive impact on moisture availability of different Belg long cycle and

Meher crops that are found at various phases of growth, perennial plants, general agricultural

activities, improve pasture and drinking water availability in pastoral and agro pastoral low land

areas. Besides, the observed continuous and heavy falls over the highlands also resulted in

overflow of rivers and caused flood in low-lying areas in most places. On the other hand,

recorded (50.0 – 102.9) mm of heavy falls in one rainy day over south, south west, western,

northern and northwestern parts of the country, that caused flood and water logging on crops

field over low lying areas, and soil erosion on sloppy areas, where might have affected sowing

activities of crops.

During July 2018 the Kiremt rain benefiting areas experienced wide spread and intensive rainfall

activity. This situation might have positive impact on fulfilling the moisture requirement of

different Meher crops found at various phases of growth, perennial plants, general agricultural

activities, and improve pasture and drinking water availability in pastoral and agro pastoral

Kiremt rain benefiting areas. Axum, Arsi Robe, Aleme ketema, Arjo, Amba Mariam, Ayder,

Awash Arba, Bati, Debretabor, Ijaji, Chagni, Chefa, Dangla, Harer, Majete, Mankush, Nifas

Mewucha, Pawe, Qara, Fereweyni, Shambbu, Shiraro, Shire Idesilase, Shola Gebeya, Semera,

Sirinqa, Wegel Tena, Gatra, Adis Ababa, Alemketema, Ayra, Alge, Ambamariam, Arder, Bati,

Astbi and Badale Gundomeskel, Gimbi, Metema, Mota, Nekemte, Aman, Sodo, Sirba Abaya and

Adama received heavy falls. The observed continuous and heavy falls over aforementioned areas

resulted in overflow of rivers, and caused flood and water logging in low-lying areas in most

places areas.

During the month of August 2018, rain bearing meteorological phenomena was strengthened in

amount and distribution over Kiremt rain benefiting and Meher growing areas like Tigray,

Amhara, Benshangul-Gumuz, West and Central Oromia, Gambela, SNNPR, parts of Afar, south

and southern highlands, and eastern Ethiopia received good rainfall activities, thus, improved

the demand of water availabilities of different crops development fulfilled, also improved

availability of pasture and drinking water over pastoralist and Agro-pastoralist areas. On the

other hand, heavy rains recorded in the range of 40-120 mm in one rainy day that might have

caused water logging and flash flooding over some areas that resulted in a negative impact on

crop growth, soil protection, and wellbeing of human and property. In line with this hailstone

accompanied by heavy falls caused damage on cereals crops and property over Wegel Tena,

Sirinka and Bodti. On the other hand, the moisture condition was good for pasture and drinking

water availabilities over pastoral and agro pastoral areas of the country.

During the month of September 2018, observed widespread rainfall activity over most Meher

producing areas of the country. In line with this, Tigray, Amhara, much of Oromia, Benshangul-

Gumuze, Gambela, SNNPR, southern Afar, Dire Dawa, Harari and northern Somali, received

slight to heavy rainfall amount in the month. This situation could have positive impact on the

availability of moisture that satisfied the water need of crops over Meher growing areas to fulfill

crop water requirements of Meher crops and long cycle crops which were sown during the month

of April, perennial plant as well as late sown cereals, pulse and oil crops. Besides, pasture and

drinking water availability improved over the eastern half low lands of pastoral and agro pastoral

areas of the country. On the other hand, occasional heavy fall ranging from 40– 52.6 mm in one

rainy day observed over western, southwestern, southern, northern central and northeastern parts

of the country. Moreover, due to the pronounced widespread and intensified rainfall activities

over areas of the aforementioned areas might have resulted in some crops and perennial plants

damage and property.

In general during Kiremt 2018, the observed widely distributed rainfall activity was conducive

for availability of moisture throughout all months of the season which helped the ongoing Meher

agricultural activities and pasture and drinking water over pastoral and agro pastoral areas.

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6

8

10

12

14

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4

6

8

10

12

14

Figure 1. Moisture status for the month of April 2018 Figure 2. Moisture status for the month of May 2018

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4

6

8

10

12

14

Humid

Moist

Moderatly Dry

Dry

Very Dry

Figure 3. Moisture status for the month of June 2018 Figure 4. Moisture status for the month of July 2018

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6

8

10

12

14

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6

8

10

12

14

Figure 5. Moisture status for the month of August 2018

Figure 6. Moisture status for the month of Sep 2018

Vegetation Greenness (NDVI) in fraction June-September 2018

June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018

Vegetation Greenness (NDVI) in fraction - [Compared to Normal]

Rangeland WRSI in % - ( June-September) 2018

June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018

Figure 7. Monthly (June-September) 2018 Vegetation Greenness (NDVI) and Rangeland WRSI

in % -

Figure 8 . Zonal based Dekadal Trend of Rangeland WRSI in % - (January - September) 2018

Meher 2018 final Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) in Fraction (%)

Maize_Meher

Legend

Sorghum_Meher

Teff_Meher

Wheat_Meher

Figure 8. Meher 2018 Final Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) in Fraction (%) for

major crops (Maize, Sorghum, Teff and Wheat).

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6

8

10

12

14

0-5

5-25

25-50

50-100

Fig. 9. Rainfall distribution in mm (21-31 September 2018)

1. WEATHER ASSESSMENT

1.1. September 21-31, 2018

1.1.1. Rainfall Amount (Fig 9)

Over Metekel, Assosa, Sheka and pocket area of Guji received 50-100 mm of rainfall. Most

north Gonder, Agewu, Kamashi, Gambela zone 1, Illubabur, Godere, Keffa, Bench maji,

Basketo, Gedeo, Guji, Bale, Liben and Afder received 25-50 mm of rainfall. Most parts of west

Tigray, Mekele, south Tigray, Afar zone 2 & 4, Oromia special zone, Waghmra, south Gonder,

Bahirdar, east Gojam, east Wellega, north & west Shewa, Jimma, Gurage, Silte, Dawuro,

Welayita, Sidama, Gamogofa, Derashe, Konso, Borena and east &west Harerge received 5-25

mm of rainfall. The rest parts of the country experienced less than 5mm or no rainfall.

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6

8

10

12

14

Normal

Above Normal

Below Normal

Much Below normal

Fig. 10 Percent of normal (21-31 September 2018)

Explanatory notes for the Legend: < 50-Much below normal

50-75%-Below normal

75-125%- Normal

> 125% - Above normal

1.1.2. Rainfall Anomaly (Fig 10)

Parts of Mekele, Waghmra, south Tigray, Togo and parts of south eastern exhibited normal to

above normal dekadal rainfall. The rest parts of the country exhibited below normal to much

below normal rainfall.

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6

8

10

12

14

0-5

5-25

25-50

50-100

100-200

200-300

Fig. 11 Rainfall Distribution in mm for the month of September 2018

1.2 September 2018

1.2.1 Rainfall Amount (Fig. 11)

Most of Metekel, pocket area of north Gonder, Agew, Assosa, Kamashi, west Wellega, Illubabur

and Sheka received 200-300 mm of rainfall. Most of west Tigray, north & south Gonder,

Bahirdar, west Gojam, east Wellega, northern part of Metekel, south Tigray, Jimma, Yem,

Gurage, Silte, Keffa, Godere, Tongo, pocket area of Gambela zone 1 & 2, Tip area of Guji and

Bale received 100-200 mm of rainfall. Central Tigray, Mekele, Waghmra, north & south Wollo,

Afar zone 2,4,& 5, east Gojam, north & south west Shewa, Alaba, Hadya, Gedeo, Sidama,

Basketo, Gamogofa, Derashe, south Omo, Bench Maji, Gambela zone 1 & 2, Guji, Bale, west &

east Harerge and Harer received 50-100 mm of rainfall. east Tigray, Afar zone 1 & 3, south

Wollo, Jijiga, east Shewa, Addis Ababa, Arsi, Fik, Degehabur, Gode, Afder, Liben, Welayita,

Konso and Gambela zone 3 received 25- 50 mm of rainfall. Shinle, pocket area of east Tigray,

Korahe, Warder, Burji, Amaro and Borena experienced 5-25 mm of rainfall. The rest parts of the

country experienced less than 5 mm or no rainfall.

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6

8

10

12

14

Normal,

Above normal

Below normal

Much Below normal

Fig. 12 Percent of Normal Rainfall for the month of September 2018

Explanatory notes for the Legend: < 50 -Much below normal

50-75%-Below normal

75-125%- Normal

> 125% - Above normal

1.2.2 Rainfall Anomaly (Fig.12)

Most of Metekel, pocket area of north Gonder, Agew, Assosa, Kamashi, west Wellega,

Illubabur , Sheka , west & south Tigray, Mekele, north & south Gonder, Bahirdar, west Gojam,

east Wellega, northern part of Metekel, south Tigray, Jimma, Yem, Gurage, Silte, Keffa, Bench

Maji, Basketo, south Omo, Gedeo, Guji, Bale, Liben, Afder, Gode, Korahe, Warder, Fik,

Degehabur, Jijiga, most of Afar zones, Oromia special zone, north Wollo, Waghmra, Godere,

Tongo, pocket area of Gambela zone 1, 2 & 3, exhibited normal to above normal rainfall. The

rest parts of the country exhibited below normal to much below normal rainfall.

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6

8

10

12

14

25-50

50-100

100-200

200-300

300-400

400-600

600-800

800-1000

1000-1200

>1200

Fig. 13 Rainfall Distribution in mm for Kiremt 2018

1.3 Kiremt 2018

1.3.1 Rainfall Amount (Fig. 13)

Pocket area of Kamashi, Illubabur, Wellega and Illubabur received more than 1200 mm rainfall.

Parts of south Gonder, pocket area of Agew, Kamashi, Illubabur, Sheka and pocket area of

Gurage received 1000-1200 mm rainfall. West Tigray, north Gonder, Bahirdar, east Gojam,

south Wollo, east Wellega, south west Shewa, Gurage, Jimma, west Wellega, pocket area of

Bench maji received 800-1000 mm rainfall. West & central Tigray, north Wollo, east Gojam,

north & west Shewa, Addis Ababa, Metekel, Assosa, west Wellega, Godere, Keffa, Bench maji,

Dawuro, Welayita and Yem received 600-800 mm rainfall. North West Tigray, Mekele, south

Tigray, Waghmra, Oromia special zone, east Shewa, Arsi, Silte, Alaba, Hadya, Basketo and

Harer received 400-600 mm rainfall. East Tigray, pocket area of Waghmra, Afar zone 2, 3, 4 &

5, east & west Harergie, Arsi, Gedeo, Gamogofa, south Omo and western Gambela received

300-400 mm rainfall. Afar zone 1, Jijiga, Fik, Bale, Derashe and Gamogofa received 200-300

mm rainfall. Parts of Afar zone 1, Shinle, Degehabur, Bale, Guji, Konso and Burji received 100-

200 mm rainfall. Over Gode, Amaro, Tip of Degehabur and Guji received 50-100 mm. The rest

parts of the country experienced less than 50 mm or no rainfall.

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6

8

10

12

14

Normal

Above Normal

Below Normal

Much Below Normal

Fig. 14 Percent of Normal Rainfall for Kiremt 2018

Explanatory notes for the Legend:

< 50 -Much below normal

50-75%-Below normal

75-125%- Normal

> 125% - Above normal

1.3.2 Rainfall Anomaly (Fig. 14)

Meher growing and Kiremt rain benefiting areas of the country received normal to above normal

rainfall.

3. AGROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDTIONS AND IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE

3.1 VEGETATION CONDITION AND IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE DURING

KIREMT 2018

During Kiremt 2018, the observed good moisture condition throughout the months benefited

Meher agricultural activities, availability of pasture and drinking water over pastoral and agro-

pastoral areas, without considerable slightly water logging and slight moisture stress observed

parts of the country .

The range land index based on WRSI and NDVI computed for kiremt 2018 shows good

improvement. The situation highly favorable for availability of pasture and water over pastoral

and agro-pastoral areas.

Generally with the exception of the observed Moisture stressed at the beginning of the season,

slightly water logging and crops affected due to heavy fall in some areas the overall situation

was favorable for kiremt season’s agricultural activities.

According to adverse weather Reported from NMA station. During the month of June heavy fall

was occurred over MekaneSelam and affected on property, over Jijiga in relation to strong wind

it impacted on property. During the month of July in Gonder and Tsitsika in relation to heavy fall

and flood it impacted on life and property, heavy fall with hail damages on property over

Gidayna. During the month of August Wegel Tena and Sirinka Hailstorms damage on cereals

crops and property, heavy rainfall in Bodti damage crops and properties. Landslide has occurred

and 13 persons died in Daworo zone. During the month of September hailstorm damage on

property and onion crop over Majete. In South West Shewa zone of Ilu woreda over flow of Fato

and Alanga River affected maize crops in three Kebeles’. Yellow Rest and Lethal Maize Disease

incidence has also been observed in Arsi Zone and Unknown maize disease has been observed in

West Shewa Zone of Ilugelan Woreda. Fall Armyworm observed over Amhara, Tigray, Oromia,

Benshangul Gumz and Gambela on maize crops but the infestations are controlled by Chemical

and traditional methods. During August, 2018 Shortage of livestock drinking water was reported

in Swena, Delomena and lowland Woredas of East Harerghe and Shortage of livestock drinking

water was reported over Sahila, Abergele and Ziquala Debark, Tselemt and Beyeda lowland

areas and also in Bidu and Kori Woredas of Afar region,

During Kiremt 2018 the general moisture condition over Meher growing areas were conducive in

fulfilling the water requirements of Meher crops that are found at different phenological phases.

Pursuant to crop phenological report, Please see table1.

For detailed information In Fitche, Shambu, Abomsa and Kulmsa - Teff, Wheat and Beans were

in good moisture condition and have good crop performance. Over Shambu Teff was slight hail

damage and has medium crop performance, in Woliso Giyon, Ejaji Teff, Maize and Sorghum

have good performance. In Abomsa, Kulumsa and Ejaji observed good crop performance over

Teff & Wheat. Heavy falls caused slight water logging on Shire Wheat and Teff and over Sirnka

and Mehalmeda in Peas and Beans.

Table 1. Summarized Phonological Conditions of Crops September 21- 30, 2018

Stations

Crop

Type

Stage of

crop

Crop damage

General crop

condition

BULLEN 1st crop Maize Wax Ripening No Damage Good

SHAHURA 1st crop Barley Ripeness No Damage Good

2nd crop Millet Tassel No Damage Good

CHAGNI

1st crop Maize Flowering No Damage Good

2nd crop Millet Tiller No Damage Good

3rd crop Nug Elongation No Damage Good

ATSIBE

1st crop Wheat Tiller No Damage Good

2nd crop Barley Shoot No Damage Good

3rd crop Maize Flower Slight disease damage Medium

SHIRE

1st crop Wheat Tassel Slightly Water Logging Medium

2nd crop Teff 3rd Leaf Slightly Water Logging Medium

SHAMBU 1

st

crop Teff Tiller Slight Hail Damage Medium

2nd

crop Wheat

3rd

Leaf No Damage Good

FITCHE

1st

crop Teff Tassel No Damage Good

2nd

crop Wheat Shoot No Damage Good

3rd

crop Beans Flower No Damage Good

WOLISO

1st

crop Maize Flower No Damage Good

3rd

crop Teff Tiller No Damage Good

2nd

crop Sorghum Shoot No Damage Good

ABOMSA 1st

crop Teff Tassel No Damage Good

KULUMSA 1st crop Wheat Shoot No Damage Medium

EJAJI 1st crop Maize Wax Ripe No Damage Good

DANGiLA 1st

crop Teff Shooting No Damage Good

DEBRE TABOR 1st

crop Teff Tassel No Damage Good

AYKEL 1st

crop Teff Shooting No Damage Good

MOTTA 1st

crop Teff Shooting No Damage Medium

DEBARK 1st crop Wheat Tiller No Damage Good

D/BERHAN 1

st

crop Barely Flower No Damage Medium

2nd

crop Wheat Flower No Damage Good

CHEFFA 1

st

crop Sorghum Tassel No Damage Good

2nd

crop Teff Flower No Damage Good

ENEWRY 1

st

crop Teff Shoot No Damage Good

2nd

crop Beans Ripeness No Damage Good

GUNDO MESKEL 1st

crop Teff Shoot No Damage Good

MEKANE SELAM

1st

crop Wheat Tiller No Damage Good

3rd

crop Teff 3

rd Leaf No Damage Good

2nd

crop Beans Ripeness No Damage Good

MEHAL MEDA 1

st

crop Wheat Tiller No Damage Good

2nd

crop Beans Ripeness slight Water logging Medium

SHOAL GEBEYA 1

st

crop Wheat Shoot No Damage Good

2nd

crop Beans Ripeness No Damage Good

LALIBELA 1

st

crop Barley Flower No Damage Good

2nd

crop Wheat Earing No Damage Good

3.2 EXPECTED WEATHER IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE DURING THE

COMING BEGA SEASON

During Bega season harvest and post harvest activities are the major practices over most parts of

Meher growing areas; also it is second rainy season for southern and southeastern lowlands of

agro pastoral areas to perform agricultural activities. The weather situation could favor the

outbreak of pests.

The indicated good moisture status, water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) and Rangeland

WRSI based on the analysis for selected analogue years particularly on the month of October and

November expected to favor crops those not fully matured Meher crops, late sown pulses and Oil

crops, perennial plants and availability of pasture and water. The situation confirmed by seasonal

probabilistic forecast in view of the projected climate scenarios, relatively wet Bega season is

anticipated to dominate much of the country during Bega 2018/19.

The expected probability of a dominantly above normal rainfall prevail across the South and

South-eastern regions where Bega is the secondary rain season will have a positive impact for

the availability of pasture and drinking water over pastoral and agro pastoral areas.

Above normal tending to normal rainfall activity is anticipated across northern, northeastern,

central and eastern Ethiopia parts of the country will have positive impact for late planted crops

(replanted crops) and late plated short cycle crops. Moreover, it will have significant contribution

for sowing of pulses with residual moisture. However, due to some untimely rains precautious

measures regarding harvest and post harvest activities will be required.

Normal tends to below normal rainfall is expected over most of western and southwestern parts

of the country, that will favor the general agricultural activities; availability of pasture and water

of pastoral areas.

The expected unseasonal rain over northern half of the country where crops matured will have

negative impact on harvest and post harvest activities. Thus, harvest and post harvest activities

should be undertaken on time in order to avoid unnecessary harvest and post harvest loses.

Moreover, the expected unseasonable rainfall will favor the occurrence of crop pests and disease.

Hence, farmers are advised to take precautions measures to monitoring pest and diseases for

proper actions ahead of time to minimize crop yield loses.

Under normal circumstance, temperature is a limiting factor during the Bega season particularly

over central, northern and southern highlands of Ethiopia. The anticipated occurrence of moist

air and cloud coverage will favor reduce the occurrence frost over frost prone areas, hence,

create favorable condition for the normal growth and development of plants in the area.

DEFNITION OF TERMS

ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL: - Rainfall in excess of 125% of the long term mean

BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL: - Rainfall below 75 % of the long term mean.

NORMAL RAINFALL: - Rainfall amount between 75 % and 125 % of the long term mean.

BEGA: - It is characterized with sunny and dry weather situation with occasional falls. It extends

from October to January. On the other hand, it is a small rainy season for the southern and

southeastern lowlands under normal condition. During the season, morning and night times are

colder and daytime is warmer.

BELG: - Small Rainy season that extends from February to May and cover s southern, central,

eastern and northeastern parts of the country.

CROP WATER REQUIREMENTS: - The amount of water needed to meet the water loss

through evapotranspiration of a disease free crop, growing under non-restricting soil conditions

including soil water and fertility.

DEKAD: - First or second ten days or the remaining days of a month.

EXTREME TEMPERATURE: - The highest or the lowest temperature among the recorded

maximum or minimum temperatures respectively.

ITCZ: - Intertropical convergence zone (narrow zone where trade winds of the two hemispheres

meet.

KIREMT: - Main rainy season that extends from June to September for most parts of the

country with the exception of the southeastern lowlands of the country.

RAINY DAY: - A day with 1 or more mm of rainfall amount.

Station CODE Combolcha CB Gonder GDR Metema MTM

A. Robe AR Chagni CH Gore GR Mieso MS

A.A. Bole AA Cheffa CHF H/Mariam HM Moyale ML

Abomsa AB Chira CHR Harar HR Motta MT

Abobo ABO D.Berehan DB Holleta HL M/Selam MSL

Adigrat AG D.Habour DH Hossaina HS Nazereth NT

Adwa AD D.Markos DM Humera HU Nedjo NJ

Aira AI D.Zeit DZ Jijiga JJ Negelle NG

Alemaya AL Debark DBK Jimma JM Nekemte NK

Alem Ketema ALK D/Dawa DD Jinka JN Pawe PW

Alge ALG D/Mena DOM K.Dehar KD Robe RB

Ambo AMB D/Odo DO K/Mingist KM Sawla SW

Aman AMN D/Tabor DT Kachise KA Sekoru SK

Ankober AK Dangla DG Koffele KF Senkata SN

Arbaminch AM Dilla DL Konso KN Shambu SH

Asaita AS Dm.Dolo DMD Kulumsa KL Shire SHR

Asela ASL Dubti DBT Lalibela LL Shola Gebeya SG

Assosa ASO Ejaji EJ Limugent LG Sirinka SR

Awassa AW Enwary EN M.Meda MM Sodo SD

Aykel AK Fiche FC M/Abaya MAB Wegel Tena WT

B. Dar BD Filtu FL Maichew MY Woliso WL

Bati BA Gambela GM Majete MJ Woreilu WI

Bedelle BDL Gelemso GL Masha MA Yabello YB

Begi BG Gewane GW Mankush MNK Ziway ZW

BUI BU Ginir GN Mekele MK

Bullen BL Gimbi GIB Merraro MR

Bure BR Gode GD Metehara MT