national investment bank 2017.pdfunder these circumstances, the national investment bank (nib) is...
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
Technical support for Investment
December 2017
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
Technical support for Investment
Egypt has been in transition since January 2011, as the country preparing for take off, after the formation of elected country’s institutions.
Since mid-July 2013, the country's new administration has decided to adopt a new strategy to cope with the major macro-economic imbalances, sluggish economic growth and high poverty. The essence of this new strategy is to adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policies , not deflationary.
With fresh injections of resources from abroad, the strategy aims at stimulating the economy through public investment in infrastructure, rationalizing expenditures by removing major distortions (e.g., energy subsidy) and reallocating expenditures in favor of social sectors (e.g., health).
Under these circumstances, the National Investment Bank (NIB) is pleased to issue this new publication entitled "Economic Indicators" to shed light on the most important developments in the basic economic sectors.
Mahmoud Montaser
NIB,Vice Chairman and Managing Director
Economic Indicators concerned with providing the latest monthly developments in the
egyptian economy and its various sectors. Economic Indicators is published for only
informational purposes and does not necessarily expresses the official opinion of the National
Investment Bank (NIB).
Copyright 2016 by Technical Support for Investment, Sector of Investment and Resources,
NIB. This publication may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in whole or in part, without
prior written permission from NIB.
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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Contents Page Summary 3
Economic Indicators 5
Tourism 5
Suez Canal 6
Local price indicators 7
Currency exchange rates 7
Monetary indicators 8
Interest Rate 9
Fiscal Indicators 10
external sector Indicators 11
Population and labour force 11
Egyptian Stock Exchange 12
International exchange 14
Global commodity prices 14
Data Sources 15
INDEX
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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A summary of the latest developments in
economic indicators
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached 4.3 percent during the Third quarter
of fiscal year 2016/2017 compared to 3.6 percent during the same period of the
previous fiscal year.1.
• Net international reserves has increased to $ 37.0 bn at the end of December
2017 compared to $ 36.7 bn in November 20172.
• In its last meeting on December 28, 2017, the Monetary Policy Committee
(MPC) of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to keep the overnight
deposit and overnight lending rates at 18.75 and 19.75 percent respectively.
The CBE’s main operations and the discount rate were also decided to be kept at levels of 19.25 percent.2
• The monthly inflation for the total Republic of consumer prices decreased by
0.21 % in December 2017 compared with 0.97 % the previous month While
the annual rate of inflation year reached 21.90% in December 2017 compared
to 25. 98% in November 2017.
• In November 2017, the number of tourists rose by 55.8 percent, to reach 778.8
Thousand compared with 499.8 Thousand in November 2016. The number of
tourist nights also rose by 145.8 percent from 3315.3 Thousand to 8150.1
Thousand during the same period.3
• The number of Egyptian population rose significantly by 4.3 percent, reaching
96.0 m people in November 2017, compared to 92.0 m people in November
2016.4
• Total revenues achieved during the period July-September 2017/2018 about 33
billion pounds compared to 64 billion pounds during the study period of the
previous fiscal year.5
1 Ministry of Planning. 2 Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). 3 CAPMAS, quoted from Ministry of Tourism. 4 CAPMAS. 5 Ministry of Finance (MOF).
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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• The total debt of the general budget (local and foreign) reached about 3676 bn
at the end of March 2017 increasing by 105.7 percent of GDP .5
• The balance of payments deficit reached $ 13.7 bn (5.8 percent of GDP) during
2016/2017, compared with a surplus of $ 2.8 bn (-0.8 percent of GDP) during
the same period of the previous fiscal year.5
• EGX 30 index increased during trading in December to close at 15019 points,
registering a rise of 3 percent, and medium stocks tended to increase where the
EGX 70 index rise by 4.05 percent to close at 828 points, while EGX 100 index
registered a rise of about 6.46 percent to close at 1972 points.6
• In November 2017, Suez Canal revenues rose to EGP 8.1 bn against EGP 6.1
bn in November 2016. The traffic achieved an increase in ship numbers, as the
number of ships crossed the Canal was 1534 ships, up from 1366 ships during
the same period of the previous year.7
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose during December 2017 to 24719.22
against 24272.35 in November 2017. The DAXI Index has declined to reach
12917.64 in December 2017 compared to November of 13023.98 while the
FTSE rose in December 2017 to 7687.77 against 7326.67 in November 2017
While the Nikkei 225 index in December 2017 rose to 22764.94 against
22724.67 in November 2017. 8
• The dollar index declined during December to 91.83 against 93.00 in November
2017 while the euro index rose by 95.91 in December 2017 against 95.00 in
November 2017. 8
• Global commodity prices rose in December 2017 to 60.42 from 57.40 in
November 2017. Crude Oil rose to 66.87 in December 2017 compared to 63.57
in November 2017. For precious metals, gold rose during December 2017 to
reach 1309.30 compared to 1276.70 in November 2017, while silver recorded a
rise of 16.98 in December 2017 compared to 16.39 in November 2017.
Agricultural crops recorded US wheat falling to 427.50 in December 2017
compared to 434.38 in November 2017 while US cotton 2 rose to record 78.47
in December 2017 compared to 72.78 in November 2017 Also London sugar
recorded a slight rise to 394.70 in December 2017 compared to 390.40 in
November 2017. 8
6 The Egyptian Stock Market. 7 Suez Canal Authority. 8 investing.com.
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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1674.7
1860.42130
2443.92708.3
2047.2
2571.5
1713.1
1924.82205.6
2473.12673.3
2021.077
2510.018
july-march2015/2016
july-march2016/2017
Rise in real GDP at market prices, at a cost of factors of production during the fiscal year
Real GDP at market prices Real GDP at factor cost
Source: Ministry of planning and land reform
The number of tourists per thousandtourists
The number of tourist nights perthousand night
506.2
3303.5
826.0
8129.9
499.8
3315.3
778.8
8150.1
The number of tourists and tourist nights per thousand
Oct-16 Oct-17 Nov-16 Nov-17
Source: Ministry of tourism
Economic Indicators
Tourism
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
Nov-16 Nov-17
353.0 411.0
1013.01123.0
numbers of vessels transiting the Suez Canal
The number of oil tankers transiting The number of other passing ships
Nov-2016 Dec-2016 Jan-2017Feb-2017
Mar-2017Apr-2017
May-2017Jun-2017
Jul-2017Aug-2017
Sep-2017Oct-2017
Nov-2017
6.17.6 7.3
6.47.4 7.7 7.9 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.1 8.3
8.1
revenues for the Suez Canal Authority (LE billion)
Source: Suez Canal Authority
Suez Canal
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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24.30 29.60 30.25 30.91 31.5029.71 29.76
32.95 31.92 31.59 30.82
25.9821.90
3.44.3
2.6 2.0 1.7 1.7 0.83.2
1.13 1.00 1.10 0.97 0.21
Inflation rates for the total republic (annual and monthly) CPI %
The annual rate of inflation Monthly inflation rate
Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics
5.7 5.6 5.45.5 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.9
7.1 7.718.0
10.6 11.4 10.2 8.8 8.8 9.5 9.610.7 11.7 11.8
23.6
7.37.8 8.1 7.8 7.5 8.3 7.8
9.1 9.48.6
18.9
Average exchange rates locally over the past ten years (LE / currency units)
American dollar pound euro
Local Price Indicators
Currency Exchange
rates
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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18.33 18.53 16.9017.63 18.01 18.01 18.03 17.85 17.71 17.60 17.65 17.63 17.83
19.3919.76 18.1318.81 19.33 19.96 20.33 20.66 20.98 20.98 21.04 20.74 21.00
22.9722.94 21.2521.70 22.80 23.34 23.17 23.31 23.01 23.50 23.30 23.83 23.83
Average exchange rates locally during the period (LE / currency units)
American dollar euro pound
Source: CBE / Reuters
Sep-2016 Sep-2017
685.5
887.7
583.0
737.5
305.9395.5
209.7 241.3
0.5 0.9102.5 150.2
credit facilities in local currency with LE billion
total credit facilities in local currency Non-government
private sector The household sector
The outside world sector the government
Monetary Indicators
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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24.326.4 26.5
28.5 28.631.1 31.3
36.0 36.136.5 36.7 36.7 37.0
Net international reserves with $ Billions
Net international reserves with $ Billions
Source: CBE
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
15.25 15.25 15.25 15.25 15.25 17.25 17.25 19.25 19.25 19.25 19.25 19.25 19.25
14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.7516.75 16.75
18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75
15.75 15.75 15.75 15.75 15.7517.75 17.75
19.75 19.75 19.75 19.75 19.75 19.75
The development of the corridor prices (deposit and lending) and Central Bank discount rate%
The central bank discount rate deposit return rate Loan return rate
Source: NIB
Interest Rate
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25
11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
The evolution of the rate of return on deposits of mail and investment certificates%
Rate of return on investment certificates The interest rate on deposits of E
Source: CBE
350.3
456.8 465.2 491.5
669.8834.6
588.2701.5 733.4
817.8
974.8
1207.1
-237.9 -244.7 -268.1-326.4 -305.0
-372.5
The evolution of revenues and expenses during the past years in LE billion
Total revenue Total cost Cash deficit
Source: Ministry of Finance
Fiscal Indicators
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
first quarter secondquarter
Thirdquarter
Fourthquarter
first quarter secondquarter
Thirdquarter
Fourthquarter
-3.7 0.3-0.2
0.81.9
5.14.0
2.7
-3.9-5.0
-5.5-4.2 -5.0 -4.7 -3.5
0.0
1.5
7.8
4.75.9
7.1
10.5
7.0
4.4
The evolution of the balance of payments, both current and capital In billion dollars
Overall Balance Trade Balance The balance of capital transactions
Source: CBE
92.0 92.2 92.4 92.6 92.7 92.9 93.1 93.3 93.4 93.6
95.8 96.0 96.0
The continued rise in the number of people per million population
External Sector Indicators
Population and Labour Force
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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Nov-2016 Nov-2017
47.0
49.5
45.046.5
High numbers of male and female population in millions
male female
Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics
EGX 30 index inEGP
EGX 30 index in USD EGX 70 Index EGX 100 Index Nile Index
Opening price 14582.22 2792.45 795.43 1852.16 528.24
Highest price 15060.10 2883.28 850.64 1978.52 543.81
Lowest price 14277.47 2721.44 767.44 1807.26 522.09
Closing Price 15019.14 2875.44 827.66 1971.76 532.06
The change% 1.67% -3.73% 1.72% 4.75% 0.00
-5.00%-4.00%-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%
0.00
2000.00
4000.00
6000.00
8000.00
10000.00
12000.00
14000.00
16000.00
Egyptian stock indexes during trading month
Money Market Indicators
Egyptian Stock
Exchange
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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Nov-2017
Des-2017
31.263
26.861
7.084
4.597
0.635
0.540
Market totals
The number of operations per million Trading volume in million paper Turnover in billion pounds
Egyptians69%
Arabs12%
Non-Arab foreigners
19%
INVESTORS' DEALINGS
Source: Egyptian Stock Exchange
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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December 2017 (points)November 2017 (points)
24719.2224272.35
12917.6413023.98
7687.777326.67
22764.9422724.96
91.8393.00 95.9195.00
International Exchange
Dow Jones DAX FTSE 100 Nikkei 225 Dollar Index Euro Index
December 2017 (dollar)November 2017 (dollar)
60.4257.40 66.8763.57
1309.301276.70
16.98516.399
427.50434.38
78.4772.78
394.70390.40
Global Commodity Prices
Crude Oil Brent Gold Silver US Wheat US Cotton 2 Londen Sugar
Source: investing.com
International Exchange
Global Commodity Prices
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National Investment Bank Investment and resources sector
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Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics
National Investment Bank
The Ministry of Planning and Follow-up and administrative reform
Ministry of Tourism
Suez Canal Authority
Central Bank of Egypt
Ministry of Finance
Egyptian Stock Exchange
investing.com