national gaming results · for february 2017 vs february 2016, nationwide markets showed fewer...

National Gaming Results

Data thru February 2017

Prepared by

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Phone: 609.457.9775

National Gaming Results/Trends 2

February was down to last year and performed less than expectations As compared to last year the calendar shows losing a Monday to the leap year in 2016. For most regional properties, the net effect of this calendar

difference equates to an expected decrease of about -2% to -3% or more as compared to last year.

For February 2017 vs February 2016, nationwide markets showed fewer states gaining and gaming revenue declined -1% overall. The results

would have been a larger decline were it not for states opening new facilities. MD opened MGM National Harbor open this year and NY opened

two full casinos and another VLT parlor. The rest of the country largely declined.

The year-to-date figures will be published for comparison purposes in March.

2017 national gaming growth forecast The drivers for the casino gaming industry: employment, income and gas prices are in weak to moderate growth position although we see gas

prices gaining in but still around or under $2.25/gallon. However, with inflation tracking at +2% to +3% there is little “real” wage/income growth.

• Our 2016 gaming forecast range was of growth of between +1% to +3%.

• Our 2017 forecast is:

Initially we are seeing much of the same in 2017 as in 2016 with growth being in the +1% to +3% range as the level of

core inflation of offsets combined gains in income levels and population.

Additionally, the hurdle for the casino industry will be trying to grow in successive years which is often a difficulty for any

mature industry.


Recent News/Trends:

New York – In the second and third of four full casinos, del Lago and Rivers opened. Jakes 58 also opened on Long Island.

Mississippi – In February 2017, the gulf coast declined -9% as other MS markets declined more rapidly (-10%). Neighboring Louisiana, all markets

experienced declining results for YTD February 2017 continuing their poor results from previous periods.

Florida declined for first month the past year as they lapped by one year Dania coming back online in Jan-2016.

Maryland has been generally growing faster than the US market. February 2017 showed MD gaining significantly as MGM–National Harbor

opened. For the second month, some property’s in MD, mostly those closer in proximity to MGM were more negatively impacted by the new

competition. Other MD casinos further away from MGM National Harbor gained. It will be interesting to see the cannibalization impact of the

MGM-National Harbor on the balance of MD competition and even into WV (Charleston Races). In 2014 when Horseshoe Baltimore opened, the

state continued to net grow.


Figure 1 Number of States Gaining, recent month to same month last year

28% of the states are reporting gains for February 2017. Only three months since May 2016 have shown more than 50% of states reporting

gains. More recent months show declines which has gone from forming a slow growth trend to confirming a slow growth trend.


Regular gas prices had fallen dramatically in later 2014. In 2015, prices peaked in Jul-15 and fell until Feb-16. In 2016, prices rose through

winter/spring and declined in summer as is normal. As of now, gas prices are expected to stay in this current range.

Table 1, National gas Prices

Note: JSA calculates monthly trends in adjusted total win for all states. We use adjusted total win for a variety of reasons but mostly to provide a consistent basis.

Many states report combined slot and table revenue and our reporting reflects same. Some states separate slot and table win and where this occurs we report

the combined total. The exceptions to the separate slot and table win are NJ and NV where table revenue is a large component of total win and often generates

very volatile results. So for better picture of the overall market for NJ and NV results, slot revenue is reported.

Sources for all data are State Gaming reports and JSA research


Table 2, National: Recent month to same month last year


Table 3, National: Year to date this year versus same time last year

We will publish YTD figures beginning in March as the comparisons are not meaningful.


Table 4, Regional: Northeast Results, Month over last year same month


Table 5, Regional: Northeast Results, YTD vs YTD last year

We will publish YTD figures beginning in March as the comparisons are not meaningful.


Table 6, Regional: Southeast Results


Footnotes


Free Play data-

PA and OH maintained at $4:$1 and $5:$1 respectively. Our research suggests that rates at/below $3:$1 need to be monitored for wasted

spending. Conversely, too much over $5:$1 suggests that there is not enough Free Play spend in that the redeeming clients are not finding value

in offers and going elsewhere. NY and CT continue at or above $8:$1. Both are legislatively capped on free play spending at 15% and 12% of

gaming revenue respectively which artificially limits the spend results as properties do not want to be taxed for exceeding the legislative caps.


APPENDIX-


Year to year Adjusted Total Win* change in dollars (millions)

* Adj total win is for all states and includes Table revenue except for NJ and NV where TBL revenue is so volatile results are distorted and only SLT revenue is in this report.


Adjusted Total Win Raw data

*

Adj total win is for all states and includes Table revenue except for NJ and NV where TBL revenue is so volatile results are distorted and only SLT revenue is in this report.

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