national flood workshop dr. thomas graziano chief hydrologic services division
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National Flood Workshop Dr. Thomas Graziano Chief Hydrologic Services Division National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Presentation Outline. Growing Water Issues America needs improved and expanded water resource services Water Forecasting Challenges - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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National Flood WorkshopNational Flood WorkshopDr. Thomas Graziano
Chief Hydrologic Services DivisionNational Weather Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
•Growing Water Issues•America needs improved and expanded water resource services
•Water Forecasting Challenges•Enhanced Hydrologic Decision Support
•Water Resources Vision 2020•New and Expanded Services
•Foundation for Services Transformation•Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)•Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
• Inter-Agency Collaboration• Integrated Water Resources Science & Services (IWRSS)
•Enhancing Support for RFCs & WFOs•National Water Center Vision
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Growing Water IssuesGrowing Water Issues Too Much, Too Little, Poor QualityToo Much, Too Little, Poor Quality
Growing need for water resource forecasts:
•Population growth and economic development are stressing water supplies and increasing vulnerability
•A changing climate is impacting water availability and quality
•Socio-economic risks of floods and droughts are escalating
Decision-makers in water management sectors need:
•Expanded/new high resolution information in space and time
•Quantification of uncertainty to manage risk
•Enhanced communication of flood risk
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Enhancing Hydrologic Decision Enhancing Hydrologic Decision SupportSupport
Forecast Lead Time
Protection of Life & Property
State/Local Planning
Environment
Flood Mitigation & Navigation
Agriculture Health Commerce Reservoir Control
Forecast Uncertainty
• Quantify and communicate uncertainty • Develop next generation probabilistic
hydrologic forecasts
• Improve graphical delivery of forecasts• Shift towards conveyance of potential forecast
flood impacts with inundation maps
• Address evolving climate• “Stationary is dead”• Increased precipitation intensity and variability
• Enhance forecasts of extreme flood events • Atlanta, September 2009• Nashville, May 2010• Arkansas, May 2010• South Texas, July 2010
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• Provide spatial extent and depth of flood waters
• Display inundation maps for levels from minor flooding through flood of record
• Better mitigate impacts of flooding and build more resilient communities
• Libraries include NWS flood severity categories and regulatory FEMA flood frequency maps
Implementation Status:
56 Flood Inundation Map Libraries
Continued Partnership with FEMA, USACE, USGS, States, & Others water.weather.gov
Enhancing Hydrologic Decision SupportEnhancing Hydrologic Decision Support
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction ServiceAdvanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Flood Inundation MappingFlood Inundation Mapping
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Precipitation Page EnhancementsPrecipitation Page Enhancements
Improved Processing• More frequent updates
Enhanced Interface• RIDGE2 / Google Interface• User-Selectable Durations• Additional Download formats
Expanded Precipitation Data• Increase geographic domain
(Alaska and Hawaii)• Increase temporal resolution• Expand archive (pre-2005)
radar.srh.noaa.gov
Enhancing Hydrologic Decision SupportEnhancing Hydrologic Decision Support
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction ServiceAdvanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
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Water Resources Vision 2020Water Resources Vision 2020
Deliver a broader suite of improved water services to support Deliver a broader suite of improved water services to support management of the Nation’s Water Supplymanagement of the Nation’s Water Supply
Provide resources and training to:• Enable RFCs to run high-resolution models and produce gridded forecasts of
streamflow, salinity, and soil moisture
• Expand role of the WFOs to help local decision makers use enhanced water forecasts, and function as decision-support experts for high-impact flood, drought, and water quality events
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Community Hydrologic Prediction Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)System (CHPS)
Flexible, open modeling architecture Flexible, open modeling architecture linkinglinking program elements program elements
Implementation Status:CHPS prototype hardware & software at all 13 RFCsConducting parallel operations at 4 RFCs,
remaining 9 by early 2011
Retire legacy NWSRFS system in early 2012
Models from Federal,
State, Local, University
and Partners
FCFEWS
FEWS Models
NWS Models
USACE Models
Other Models
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Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS)Service (HEFS)
Probabilistic information to support risk-based decisionsProbabilistic information to support risk-based decisions
• Seamless short- to long-term HEFS within CHPS
Implementation Status: Demonstrating components of short-
term capability at 6 RFCs
Will deploy additional prototypes during the next 2 years
Initial version of full capability in 2013
• Incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic uncertainties
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NOAA leading multi-agency consortium to:
•Share technology, information, models, best practices
• Improve the accuracy and timeliness of water information
•Provide new high-resolution water resources information and forecasts
•Streamline/integrate access to Federal water resource information
•Create a Common Operating Picture Status:
IWRSS MOU
Team Charter on System Interoperability and Data Synchronization
Team Charter on National Flood Inundation Mapping Services
Integrated Water Resources Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS)Science and Services (IWRSS)
USGSUSGSUSGSUSGS
USACEUSACEUSACEUSACE NOAANOAA NOAANOAA
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““Summit-to-sea” high-resolution water resources information & forecastsSummit-to-sea” high-resolution water resources information & forecasts
Watershed to National Information
ss
Snowpack
Snow Water EquivalentRunoff
Streamflow
Soil Moisture
Precipitation
Evapotranspiration
Water Quality
Groundwater
Snowpack
Snow Water EquivalentRunoff
Streamflow
Soil Moisture
Precipitation
Evapotranspiration
Water Quality
Groundwater
Integrated Water Resources Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS)Science and Services (IWRSS)
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Implementation ThemesImplementation Themes
Integrated Water Resources Integrated Water Resources Science and ServicesScience and Services (IWRSS)(IWRSS)
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Combine hydrologic forecasting operations and research to fill several critical gaps:Combine hydrologic forecasting operations and research to fill several critical gaps:
National Water Center VisionNational Water Center VisionAddressing IWRSS ObjectivesAddressing IWRSS Objectives
• Provide new high-resolution forecasts of water resource variables to help decision makers manage increasingly limited water supply
• Extend river and flood forecasting to provide maps showing forecasted spatial extent and depth of flooding
• Integrate water resources information to provide one-stop shopping for stakeholders
• Establish multi-agency proving ground to leverage capabilities and accelerate R2O
• Establish Common Operating Picture