National  Early Warning Systems: A Regional Perspective 

Eugene PoolmanChief Forecaster: DRR

South African Weather Service

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Consider Tropical Cyclones Eline (2000) and Favio (2007)

(Taken from SREX Chapter 9)

• TC Eline 2000 Mozambique:– 700 deaths, 4.5 million affected – Mozambique was not prepared from a DRR

perspective– Massive international rescue and support

• TC Favio 2007 Mozambique:– 29 deaths, 285000 affected– Warnings issued days in advance– Disaster management infrastructure mobilized– Communities prepared in prior training were

successfully evacuated within 2 days

• How did EWS contribute to this success story?

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Effective National Early Warning SystemsThree essential requirements• State-of-the-art hazard monitoring and dissemination

capabilities and procedures• Excellent coordination between all role players:

Met Services, DMCs, Media, Local Communities• Communities at risk must receive, understand and

appropriately react to warnings

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Risk Knowledge

Monitoring & Warning Disseminate Response

Four Elements of EWS

Challenging the technological gap of Developing Countries

• Dramatic developments in weather forecasting science over the past decades

• Increasing gap in developing countries of application of modern forecasting technology (NWP, EPS) in early warnings

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Challenging the technological gap of Developing Countries

• Dramatic developments in weather forecasting science over the past decades

• Increasing gap in developing countries of application of modern forecasting technology (NWP, EPS) in early warnings

• There is a need to support developing countries to close this gap

• WMO’s Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

SWFDP Framework for “Cascading of Information” 

since 2006

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• Global Centres– Provide specialized forecast products

• Regional centre (RSMC Pretoria)– Provide these products to NMSs through 

a dedicated web page– Provide guidance forecasts of potential 

severe weather for next 5 days, every day• 16 National Meteorological Services

– Assess the products and guidance– Issue national warnings with up to 5 days 

lead time• Underpinned by regular training• No complex technology required

Enhanced National Early Warning Systems

• NMS evaluate model products supported by RSMC guidance products

• Issue warnings if needed against their own in-country criteria for severe weather

• Collaborate with Disaster Management in JOCs prior and during events

• Media Liaison• Community outreach

programmes

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Example of SWFDP support to National EWS Tropical Cyclone Favio Feb 2007

• TC Favio caused widespread damage over Mozambique and Zimbabwe

• The model forecasts supported guidance to NMCs on potential landfall and movement 5 days in advance

• Allowed disaster management in Mozambique and Zimbabwe to issue alerts 2-3 days in advance to provinces

• Enhanced EWS through SWFDP essential part of a wider DRR effort that prepared Mozambique (and Zimbabwe) for Flavio

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Conclusion• Development of EWS is important element of adaptation 

against adverse impacts of the changing climate and socioeconomic background

• Regional collaboration is an essential element to support developing countries with modern technology

• The greatest challenge is reaching vulnerable communities with effective warnings

• SWFDP is a practical example of successful action at regional level in Southern Africa having operational impact at national and local level

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