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A CRITIQUE OF RESEARCH
REPORTS RELEVA~T TO
FAILURE mJ RELE_~SE ISSUED ... BY THE DEPARTME~IT OF
CORRECTIONS, DISTRICT
OF COLUHBIA
Prepared fo= t~c Office of Crimina~ Justice Pl~~~ 2~d Analysis by:
.Leonard D. Savitz, Ph.u., Professor of Sociology Temple University
July 1971
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ThQ qcneral method of using a cohort: is sound and in accordanCe vlth"the best standards of criminological research.
';'!1<! r,,1;'".nlc sizes are usually adecr~ate", This is not always the CAliC but in most of the studies considered sample sizes are up to ~t least minimially acceptable standards.
Tho length of time for follow-up is usually but not always :t.3cguatc.
r.1til arc usually not presented in sufficient detail or clari tv, J,n cx:;:c?tion to this is "A comparison of the ComIftuni ty Periormanc, o! Cc;c:~',:::i ty Correctional Center and Institution' Releasees: Some
, .. ~'d' " J'::C~lr.~lnary J:~n ~ngs.
So. Tht' basic unit of measurement (Failure on': release) is poor I" co::i: The definition of ~ailure as "tnose convicted and sentenced co )0 d.lYs or nore" is contra-intuitive. What of the cases of t.'1e 'rcleil~ees who are re-arrested for felonies, let out on some form of co::::i tio:1al release \"ho flee from trial? Under the above de:!inition such persons are counted as "successes" !?
(. '7h" -'.:c:.~..r.Lti()n of failure is re::>eatedly switched >-Then com-Darin" . <.-; _ .~.::. ,:'_ ~:.;.~ ... _'::is alene in"~~aliGa;,..£:s the cOH.parisons bet'V;ee:l the 'DIsi:i1"ct-and other jRrisdictions.- .
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7. The dearee of follow-uD is switched ~";hen"comDarina ~urisdict:'ons. Recidivism for a large state like CaliJ:or:1ia' is b~s~Q on fail;.::::-;::
-·anywhere wi~~in the state; recidivism in the"District of Columbia does not include any but that inside the small geographic area of
"the District.
s. • Several statistical Practices are Suspect a. A. Q\JbioU3 pract:~c.:2. is €:~'~r'lG:.~eci by =ejeci::ing the actual hig;' .. failure rate of D. C. releasees and "correcting" to make the data appear more favorable. b. Curves are plotted with insufficient data in some cases based apparently, on one 'point ! C. Statistical tests to back up the claims advanced are either la ing or crudely employed,
9. The claims made in the research reports are freguently contradicte by the data~oresented. It is 11Qt ~e that Youth Center Releasees fare better than COrnrGuni ty Treatment Center rele2..s.2es. It is not t'rue that
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Co;:-;:-:uni ty Correctional Centers ""are performing better than -- - 'Institutional rclcasees! This is admitted in p.S of Addenda (&io) D but in spite of this the same report claims the contrary
-on 1>9. I! The claim that the District fares better than other jurisdictions is certainly ?ot substantiated by their data •
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CRITIQUE OF RESEARCH REPORTS ISSUED BY THE DISTRICT OF COLumnA' S DEPARTHENT
OF CORRECTIONS
Leonard D. Savitz Professor of Sociology Temple University
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'l'his report' sUIl'lnarizes and evaluates the research reports issued by the DeparL~ent of Corrections of the District of Columbia concerning failure on release. Each report is described, its principal claims put forth and evaluated. They are each accompanied by an appraisal of the methods used and the results obtained.
I. Parole Perforr.,ance Trends Jl_lTIona Communi'tv Treatment Center ReleaSE - -Adams, Stuart, \'Ianda Heaton, Dimitri Honos and Margaret Upchurch. District of Columbia, Department of Corrections, Research Report No. j
(September, 1968). '-
A. 'Description 'l'his study traces 259 men 'l'lho were released 8/65 through 6/68 and whose follm1-uP ended 7/68; thus some were released for 30 months or more and some were out for less than 4 weeks. This latter
. group had little risk of recidivism due to their brief exposure and consequently they inflate the success rate. This brief exposure group COmprises 53 of the 259. (over 20%) of the entire popUlation. The cohort out the longest and which gives the best indicator of success or failure had a recidivism rate of 87% •
. 'l'he recic'l-i"lism rat-e- for ".-t;be tot.al Ropulation hO'l'leVer long at risk was 47.8%, ",ith 34% of the total population having sentences of 3 days or more. It was suggested that particular attention be paid
•... to those released for 18 months (N=5B). of this group of 58, more than half ,,'ere arrested and 43% of the 58 were sentenced to
-.:.-:30 or more days.
B. Claim Con~unity ~rca~~cnt Center =or Youth Releasees are performing remark~bly well on parole (p.ii).
C. Evaluation 'l'he cOnloarison of violation rates to those in California is dUbious: The violation rates for three year risk is probably over 90%: f.,ny program where most .vIill ultimat.ely fail can hardly be called a "success".
D. Anal'lsis A very d~bious r::omparisoTl is made of the violation rate of 43% (onJ.y those convicted of a nm~ c~ime) with ~he California Youth
Act rate of 3.2't;, for ,\ revocatic:1 of ;JClz..~clc" (~."hich includes conviction of a nevI crime ,:<,nd technical violation of parole concH tions.) If the sante definition vier€; used in both
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jurfsd-£ct.l.Ons-the-re'Cidivism-rate could well be higher in D. C. compared to California. The failure rates among cohorts are unstZlble sinoe there are vast differences among the violation rates of the various cohorts studied.
For instance, during the first two 'quarter's of release (table 3) the 30 month cohort had 33% violations, the 24 month cohort had 9% violations and the 0-6 month cohort had 18, violations. ,
.~ :.~ .. -- .. " - ~ '. - . . : - -~. -~ .' '.. ". ~ '. . - ~ _. "If we use the eXDerience of the oldest cohort (30 month) the ;:. - ,ultimate recidivism rate will be over 90%! This rate can be
. -: '-, ; estimated because at 30 months it is already 87% and the so~--'-caliedGlazer rule of detecting 90% of all violations at 36
months has not as yet been fulfilled .
. "" '"The reiteration is dubious that" the ADril 1968 riots artificiall, inflated the failure rate and that an~ther lower parabolic curve-
.. __ .. ::_ "of failure is to be preferred. ___ ._
The techniques of graphing are occasionally misleading. The. curious use of araohica data can be illustrated by an examole
.~ ... -~.-.--.-. -.- - - ""------ ~,~ - - .. . 2n which it is made to appear to the casual reader that those
Not Booked are increasing over time ! The following charts illustrate the two versions of the sane data. e:;.' .- ... _.-.- . -. -"-'- -
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Inc.:tacncc of Book:i.ng;:; iSO-Day G'.Outenccs, r:,nd Other , Dispos:~tions Ova::: Time: lG"-l,~onto Cohort
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II. Perform'.lnc~_T_rends AmOn..9'._Y_o_ut:::.h:.:......::.c",c;::n.'-t;::c::c;:r,....:Pc.;a;:.r=o.::.l:;:c:.:E:=s, Adams I Stuart I Wanda Hcato~/Dimitri Monos and Margaret Upchurch. District of Columbia, Department of Corrections Research Report No. 8 (October 1968). .
. _, .•.. A. De~cription . __ ...... . The report states that 23% of 148 releasees from the youth Center failed (were sentenced to 30 days in prison or more) after 15 months of release. These releasees include youth Center cases released during August 1965 through December 1967 except eTC placements.
B. Claims . The Youth Center appears to be functioning at a relatively high level of effectiveness (p.ii).
C.' Evaluation
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The definition of failure changes from D. C. to California' thereb) invalidating the comparison. The popUlation at risk is peculiar1~ defined. If various 'corrections' (proposed in the research -papers) are made the failure rate is very high.
--~', D. Analysis --- - '-' ., .. _. %. • •• ,"""'-"'--
Th'e failure rate of 23% of Youth Center releasees 15 monthS aiter release are comoared to California ',qi th a failure rate (swi tcned to any parole violation) of 35% at 15 months. The same failure' rate is claimed for D. C. COllununity Treatmen'i: Cen-ter. The latest comparison betloleen youth Center and Cotn..'<lunity Treatment Center releasees is in t'Trer:.ds in Perforli1.ance in the Com.rr~uni tv Youth Center and COll'Jnuni ty Tre~t."ent 'Center Releasees. .. The' analysis of that r'eport sho\vs no 'differences -proven bet'lleen tl,e t·,/O modes of release. - -'
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, . ',Why should persons who are released to detainers be incl~ded in the sample of releasees at risk? Is it not the case that these
'persons may be incarcerated in another jurisdiction and thus counted 2'.s II success!:!s" by the peculiar definition, employed? In "Post Release Perforrr.ance of 432 Reforrr,atory Releasees" detainers were eXGlucied a5 D2ing r.ct: s1..:itable ::c:: =ollo~.'l UPi ",;tcat IT.~~:es such persons suitable in this case? If we recalculate the failure rate without persons released to detainers it beco~es 40/131 or 31%. If we correct for undercounting due to the lack of foll'ow-up by using the estimated results of F.B.I.
.... records then:
40/131 = 44% .7
If we corrc::ct even further for the fact that this is onl;,: a 15 month £0110',v-uo then we do not eyen haVe 75% of the ultimate failures thus ~he ultimate rate will be surely more than 601.
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'He do not adVOCilte the use of these "corrections", I introduce them to show ho\-! the figures may be "corrected" to produce almost any desired result. l'lhat is needed is a follo\<{-up of sufficient length using F.B.I. records and the same definition applied to insure some degree of confidence in an important matter such as the effectiveness of Youth Act releasees • . '
III. post-Release Performance of 432 Reformatory Raleasees, Adams, Stuart, I'ianda Heaton, and John Spevacek. < District of Colurllbia, Department of corrections, Research Report NO: 11 (February, 1969).
A. Descri~tion A<group of 432 releasees months after release.
from the reformatory are traced for 36 < •
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B. Claim -,. < <
D. C. releasees are doing well compared to California Releasees.
C. Evaluation The conclusion is unwarranted from the data.
D. <The and
Analysis D. C. failure figures are bias is more severe in D.
in all likelihood understated C. then in California.
According to this report (p.21} the U3e of F.B.I. records indicate that D. C. statistics underestimate the failure b}' 30%. <Thus, the stati.stics could be 'corrected' to take account of this fact. Specific;ally', ~et
then
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. a = Distrfct of coiurnJ:d:a statistics< not corrected by F.B.I. data
b = the corrected statistics
a = b ( 1 - .30)
:a ;:: b (.7)
a = b .7'
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this .means that the D. C. figures should be divided by .7 ( or, equivalently, mUltiplied by 1.43) to adjust for undercounting.
Thus the "true" rate is over 40% more than the reportee. rate :
From the above, t~e failure figures can be corrected to inc~easQ comparilbi Ii ty and this again sharply reduces the vaunted succcs", rates.
This hiLl::: is IO,OS t important for D. C. since its small size cntCl~ 1.8 m~ssing i"t1:tny of fenders v.'ho go only !"iho:~ t:. ;.1i :::tar..ccS Lo commlt Crln1C:.=i.
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The paper presents a very dubious comparison to thp. California Prison System. Why should we assume as the authors do that al California prisoners returned to prison received a sentence orover 1 year? Some probably were ~echnical violations returned to prison without any sentence, Why assume a one-year sentence other than an artificial expedient to make them comparable to the D. C. population?
NOTE: 'The Department of Corrections assumes that all Californii parolees who are returned to prison get a sentence of 1 year or :lIlore. Their own D. C. Chart (table 8) shows that of all parole, in D. C. who get a prison sentence 62/126 get 1 year or more. We can question, should the same likelihood apply to California If so, one-half of the figures offered on p.23 table 10 seem to apply to California felonies and therefore, by this standard:
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Comparison of D. C. Corrections and California Corrections Releases Performance
D.C. California:*
months 8% 6% '
months 16% 15.25%
months 26% 20.5%
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* 'corrected' as above
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IV. Com;nu'nity Performance of Three Categories of Institutional Releasees, Heaton, I'Janda and Stuart Adams. - District of colu;r.hia, Department of Corrections, Research Report No. 15 {June 1969}.
A. !Jescription This study traces releasees divided into parole, conditional release and sentence e):piration. All' were traced for 36 mon, after release in 1965. II ,
B. Claim Parolees recidivate less than conditional releasees and they in turn recidivate less than expirees.
C. Evaluation This claim is substantiated by the data presentea.
D. Analvsis There are some peculiar results: consider the 101 who were paroled ',.;i th characteristics of 3.8 previous arrests and ::'.:: prior com:nit.'71ents (Note: 5.3 years served tdth current 0::="::,
I,' 29% were booked and 14% vlere convicted of net'l crimes. 205 . released :::ndcr Good Time Release Conditions with eharacte:::':'
. : of 5.7 previous arres'Cs c.!1d 3.5 prior corr .. zl1i trnents iNGte: -; .. ',: 1 years -?eFved wi.th Cll:rrent offe~~~e) I ~3% to/ere booked a.nd i9s
CO!1victed 0":: ne,'l c:cir.,es. 126 released because of Sente:1ce E ~ ., '.~ ~ -'.l.,' .- - -1' ....-xplratlO:1 ~ .. J:l .. ~_"1 Cfl::..racterlS",,~C5 0= 1 .. --; prev1.ous arreSl-S ':=-:;',-":'
pr ior cor:-...-ni tments (:~ote ~ 1.3 ve.a.rs ,s~ved on current offer.5 were booked and 4ll-were~convic::ted or new' crir.:es.
NOTE: The very peculiar nature of the worst population - S '_ Expiration.:.. who fail the most and yet, "hose last stay in :. after an average of 7,4 previous arrests and 4.5 prior CO:1'"":.
served only 1.3 years! Is this category composed of viola" who are by definition extremely likely to racidi v,ate and be _greatest failure in any population? Thi,?-fl1d§_§>j;j,J?J.l. __ !i:;hqu).S,~t l?~~~L".P}:l,t~~~~ed. __ c",
V. A Comparative Study of Recidivism Rates in six'Cocrectional ~ Adams, Stuart. District of Colmnbia Departrr.ent of Corrections, :, Report No. 21 (January, 1970);
A. Descrintic!1 This study- compares recidivism rates for a number of release, from D. C., California, Wisconsin, !,lew York and Washington ::; and the Federal Bureau of Prisons.
B. Cl'aim The "partiallyf "djust'Jd'ultimate recidivism rates" for D" C
-lOWer than thosp- ot other jurisdictions. In the memoranci'~l:\ Deputy ~layor l..Jatt (dated April ;;1. 1971) the claim becomes t this reFor:: "providc::s evidence that our rc.lt;ic1ivisrn rate is '.,: '''-' lowest of any' maj c,r ;::orr£:!ctional ",ys t,,;:; in the United St;::n::c;,
. ,"', ... '. ~ .0 '
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C. Evaluation Neither claim',~ especially the latter versio'n, is warranted on the basis of the data reported.
D. Analysis
D1 Lack of Sufficient data: This st~dy tries to compare recidivism rates by reconstructing a curve based on the experience of other jurisdictions but 3 of
'5 other populations have only estimated rates of failure, thus any comparison '.-/ith them is not justified. It seems true that in the one state "lith actual experimental data there is only one
. data point? If this is so, how then can the proper curve be drawn? Examination of Figures 1 and 2 do not indicate the use of sufficient data points with any non-D.C. cohort and ~~erefore one can't really determine if these curyes follow the form suggested.
'02 Shifting Definition of Recidivism: ~ • The comparison 0":: the Districts failure rates to those of other
jurisdictions is invalid because the same definition is not used 'as a basis for comparison. In the District a failure is anyone who is convicted and sentenced to at least 30 days but i~ . Wisconsin for,ir.st?rlce,a failure is anyone convicted of'a new offense or declared in violation of parole or conditior.al release If we restrict lVisconsin to only those convicted of a new offense their failure rate is 13.7%. It is a fundamental reoui:::-ement thai whateve'r de::ini ticn is chosen I the same definition shot.:ld be employed in the compari~q~ area~ The-present study persistently fails in Efiis regard."' ~
03· The Use of Selected Corrections of the Data: <'Some i correctio:ls J make the Dis ~rict appear better 0:::;: compared to other jurisdictions ~Ihile other 'corrections I (undercou!1ting due to the District's small size) would make the District seem worse. This Dauer uses the ones which favor the District ciompared to other jurisdictions. Indeed the uncorrected ra' .. l data (Figu~i3! 2) e.o not at all Sl.'..ppo-:::-t ::~c clai:::s ::::::.::::::. T!1.us the use of 'corrections' becomes central. Hhatis needed is information that does not need dubious • corrections I introd'.lced after the fact •
04 Basic Unit of Measurement: The basic u!:i t. 0'::: -r;:caSUrC!7;cnt is failure upon release, ho\ve,;rer I i is not the same for the several studies compared. Data is not ev given sufficient detail to be sure of what ~eDresents failure in several of the studies used for comparative purposes.
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Eyen within the category uniquely applied to the D. C. population (new crime), Adan's basic unit of evaluating success (sentenced to'30 days or more) is not adequate. He must include those fined ·.md,dismissed (guilty of a new crime). and then make some allowance
. for those whose cases have not yet been disposed of. I 1 this ,is a particul2.rly bad definition of failure and most individuals 'who hav.e studied this problem in detail (England, Reeves) have -concluded that the best definition of failure is a notation in . the releasee's file that he has, engaged in some act for which his parole officer chose to do so. Admittedly, most studies use revocation of parole, but this clearlY involves new crimes committed and technical violation, not the very bizzare unit used here: Convicted and sentenced to at least 30 days.
VI. Trends in Performance in the Corrununitv youth center and Corrununitv Treatment Ce:1ter Releasees, Clarence Allen and Katl::!leen O'Brien.Distrfct of Coltlinbia, Department of Corrections, Research Report No. 36. (November, 1970)
",
A. Description: 'This study examines the post-release pe'rformance of 372 youthful offenders ~ho were released from the D. C. Youth Center during 1967-69. Of the total group of subjects, 217 were released direct from the youth Center to parole. The remaining 155 were in the Co~unity Treat~ent Center f~r six to e~ght weeks.
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The 372 releasees \'le:-e grou;Jed into ten cohorts, ';;ach cohort having been released during one.of the £ive half-year periods in the covere€l· by tn'€! study. There were five youth Center cohorts, YC-l through YC-S, and five Community Treatment Center
,cohorts, CTC-l through CTC-S. '. B. 1. rates have increased (p.ii). 2. Youth Center ~eleasees fail less than Co~munity
Treatment Center Releasees. (p.ii)
C. Evaluation: The is supported by their data but the second is not. diffe~ences betHeen failure
D.. is We may conpare the cohorts in sever'al \yays, based on data taken from Tables 4 and 5. Each pair of cohorr:.s has been at risk the same length of time thus the cohorts with the lov/er failure rate is faring better on e.
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Y.outh Center
Community Treatment Center
;
\ of Failure for 5 Cohorts
Pair A Pair B 12 months 18 months
22~ 31% ., '
30% 29%
. ,
Pair C 24 months
38%
29%
:., .
Pair 0 30 months
63%
33%
Pair 36 me
38%
65%
From the above five separate cohorts at risk for varying lengths of time CTC is better in 2 cases, YC is better in two cases and they are about even in one case. No superiority for either mode of release seems warranted.
'But we may better test the claim made that at. 12 months out the Ye was doing better by examing failure rates for all cohorts when they all VIere at risk 12 months. The relevant data become:
% Failure at 12 months . -
-A .B- e : ... ' D J E __ OVERALL ~
Youth 22% 27% 16% 37% 24% :25%
". Center
" Commun,i ty 30% :29% :29% 14%' ' 32% 28% Treatl1'.ent Center
Translating the above percentages into number we may test the hypothesis concerning three-factor interactions in a 2x2xk table follol.;ing the techniques described by Leo A.· Goodman. The null hypothesis 1\Jtl.L'!.};: for all k wherel!. k is u a measure of the tl-lCfactor interaction in a 2x2 table corresponding to the k table layer and the null hypothesis specifies that this two-factor interaction is the same for each layer .," None of the cQ{'rr9a:::-isons is'significant at commonly accepted levels. 'I'hus noneof!he cohorts differ coo:::-eciablv from each othe:::-. In addition the overall per.i:ormance'of CTC versus YC'at 12 months can be c:l1.culat by using chi-squilrc. '::'he results of these calcul,il tions Dr.C;'; til", t overall the!"!-,=! is ,no diff·.::.:-onc:e -in the 9rO?ortion of f2ilu.~~5 :",C::',,'
'eTC and YC ilt 12 rr.on thscont:rary to tile clalla ilC:V.:l::J.CCc..
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VII. A Comparison of the Community Performance of Community Correctional center and Institution Heleasees: Some Preliminarv Findings,' Hardy, KcnI'eth L. District of Coll'mbia, Dep;"rtment of Corrections, Statement of Findings (Harch 15,1971).
, ,
A. Description: This study traces 120 Community Correctional Center (CCC) releasees and 119 Institutional releasees (INST) and compares their failure rate after 8 months of community exposure.
Claims: B. 1. CCC relcasees have a lower rate of recidivism that INST
2., releasees ,in the sample. . Those persons who have problems 'like a or alcohol abuse are aided more by CCC
3. CCC'~ are sound investments.
C. Evaluation: .
history of drug than INST.
1. There is no significant difference between failure and mode of release as long as they receive the same proportion of handicapped persons.' (Claim 1 is false)
2. CCC does no better than INST in lowering the failure rates of handicapped releasees. (Claim 2 is false) ,
3. CCC's can not be justified as superior to INST insofar as failure on release goes on the basis of the data presented (Claim 3 is false).
D. Ami.lysis: In' making, this analysis vie shal.! use _the definitions and techniqu used in t]:1e paper J.j:self..;, .'
"Handicapped" includes men with a knmm history of drug use or '-alcohol abuse as follm-Is:
79 Drug Handicap
29
s 113
Alcohol Handicap
Other Handicap' Total
•
We shall also adopt their' o'~'n definition of success (men conv,ktcd of sentences =esulting in new confinements of 30 days or more incl'Jcing 9arolees \-Ihcse parole were revocated due to the ne;-! c;)r.'.riction; 9arolecs -,;n05c ,parole Has re'J'cked for a new arrest but for \-Ihem there h2.s been no conviction; oarolees ,,'nose parole "las revoked for technical violations; and mEm incarcerated pending disposition of arrest revocation status). We shall further utilize their ewn key data from T~ble 6e.* Further, we
Table 6a contains some obvious errors corrected f<lr the present analysis.
I on l~ne l.b these were
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shall adopt the statistics used by them in evaluating their own efforts. Finally, !de shall consider thq effects of two variables (folony vs misdemeanor and handicap~o handicap) which they themselves have noted. Nithin these confines the result is clear: CCC relcasees fare no better than INST releasees •
• ~o demonstrate these conclusions the overall table (Table I) should be examined. It breaks down all releases by handicap/ no handicap, by misdemeanor vs felony and by institutional vs community correctional center releases. For each handicap/ crime/ release condition the number of successes and failures is indicated. All this is derived from Table 6a. It will be voted that the chi-sguare is significant for the overall table. But from ",hat point of the table does the significance arise ? To-ans",er this crucial auestion the standard techniaue of partitioning the overali chi-square into its separafe components was adopted. The detailed components are displayed in tables 2, 3 and 4. The results, may be summarized as follows:
1. There is a significant difference between handicapped and non-handicapped releasees. Handicapped releasees fail more freauently. . _ --
2. Among handicapped released felons fare no differently than misdemeanants. -The same is true among non-handicapped.
3. Among handicapped felons INST fare no differently than CCC.
4. The same is true for all other groups.
Thus the-only sisnificant result is. t;.'lat handicapped Dersons fa; 1
more than-Don-handicaDpe~oersans .
• -:;r:ri addition -the relationship beble~~ type of -release and success is trivial in any case. To demonstrate this \1e employed the technique of partial association using Goodman and Kruskal's taU-b. To interpret the results of the analysis, let 100% represent the case ,-lhere we could predict success or failure Qn.rele~se from a knowledge of handicap/crime/release condition and 0% re-oresent \'lhere knO~'llE'.:d~e of ha::1cice.D/crime/release '\dG.:-e worthless' in specifiying failure or release~ It turns out that knOWledge of "hether or not an individual. is handicapped adds 12% 1 the additional knO'.dedge of type of release contributes 1% more and felonv vs misdemeanor contributes less than that. Thus, whether a person ,-I<1S =e 1 eased from ccc or I::;ST adcs only 1% to our nbility to predict success or failure on relesse once we kno'.; :·.~~lct:hcr a 2erson \'las n.a:1dicaDped or not...
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'ADDENDtJH A:
. . ~he statistical methods used in this paper are described in the
':two folloHing sources.
Leo A. Goodman, "Simple l1ethods for ,Interaction in Contingency Tables," Statistical Association, June, 1964, 352.
Analyzing Three-Factor Journal of the A.rI'.erican Vol 59., No. 306, pp. 319-
Bresnahan, Jean Lard,Shapiro, Hartin N., "A General Equation and ~echnique for the Exact Partitioning of Chi-Sqare contingency ~ablesf" ~ychological Bulletin, 1966, 66, 256-262.
The following tables present the results of pa~titioning for the data described; the casual reader should be \-larned against calculating chi-squares in the ordinary fashion.
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ADDENDUH B:
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Was the increase in failure in 1968 due to temporary social unrest or ,'las it due to a real increase in failure?
The research reports reiterate that the increase in failure rate in the 2nd quarter of 1968 as being due to the April riots and thereby choosing, instead of actual failure rates, a projecte( hypothetical curve of what their behavior should have been like had there been no riot. This claim does not appear ,to be based on their own data. In study I, (Releasees from CTC) the left marginal description of Table 3 is difficult to understand and therefore I will use 6 months periods.'
comparing the increase in failure during the 1st six months of '1968 \<lith that of the last Ii rr,onths of 1967 (7/67 - 12/67), it will be noted that for the 30 month cohort there was a 6.6 percent increase for 1/68 - 6/68 and a 6.7 percent increase in 7/67 - 12/67. The 18 months cohort shows a 6.9 percent increase in 1/68 - 6/68 and an identical 6.9 percent increase a 7/67 -12/67. .
In Study II, (Releasees from Youth Center) if Table 3is taken to mean that the last quarter studied is 4/68 - 6/68, once again the supposed massive increase in failure f:lr the popUlation -compared to ?r·::·,.:-i.ou£ patterns of ::ailures is not borne out ..
·Even should my original supposition be-wrong, then by combining the last ·Z-Quarte:5- stu2ir'eo (which lrlust then· include the April riots) the comparison with six months periods i~~ediately -proceeding them reveals for several cohorts, no enormous shift
·-.in failure rate.
NOTE: Although published data into 1970 is available ,the research still·does not go beyond 6/68, possibly feeling that the late data may co::::i::::-.: ~!1'2 t:DS~.-;i::-:; i::;,- 1:::0 4/63 - 6/6B c::ua::-te"!:' as som;;:;thing Ot:t9'!:'
than a temporary and peculiar rise due solely to the April riot. It seems to me that this point is essential to their early argu;nent, and considering the availability of the failure rate for his early cohort popUlations for the quarters after 6/68, they would use this informati (for 7/68 - 9/68, 10/68, 12/68) to confirm their belief in the spllrio1: nature of the 4/68 - 6/68 rise, if the data did indeed confirm this. The very fact that they never deal v;ith ti:lis information (although available by 1970) may indicate data would not SUbstantiate this pret'.: parabolic curve construed in the early studies.
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II. An additional test of the claim could have been carried out but was not. The following tables descr,ibe the offense and arrest distributions for the period under consideration (Fiscal 1968), Inspection show that the only main effect noticeable is an increase in Burglary arrests further analysis reveals that these arrests are overwhelmingly for Burglary II. Thus the records of the cohorts could have been checked to ascertain if the increase in failure rates in the cohort was due to increased arrests for Burglary II. If they were not the claim advanced WQuld be weakened considerably.
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SOURCES: Offenses, MPn Annuil+ Report FY 1968 ' •• "a~a MPn Annual Report FY 196B
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SOURCES: Offensea, MPD Annual ReportFY 196B A):rests, f.lPD ArmuCll. Report FY 1968
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SOURCES: Offenses, MPD Annual Report FY 1968 Arrests, Ml'D Annua] Report Fy 1968
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, SOURCES: Offenses, MPD Annual Report FY 1968 l\,..,.."",j-", Ml'D Annual Report FY 196B
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SOURCES: Offenses, MPD IInnua1 Report FY 1968 Arrests, MPD Annual Report FY 1968
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SOURCES: Offenses, MPD Annual Report FY 1968 Arrests, MPD Annual Report FY'1968 , • "l
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SOUlleES: Offenses, ~lPD Annual Report FY 1968 Ar.rc~l ts, NPD i\nnual Report FY 196 a
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