national conference on integrated social policies 7-8 february 2007, cairo, egypt social policy...
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NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INTEGRATED SOCIAL POLICIES
7-8 FEBRUARY 2007, CAIRO, EGYPT
SOCIAL POLICY FORMULATION AND IMPLEMENTATION IN MALAYSIA
RAJA ZAHARATON RAJA ZAINAL ABIDIN
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BRIEFING OUTLINE
1. Background on Malaysia2. Development Philosophy and Planning
Machinery3. Major Policy Evolution4. Socio Economic Dimensions5. Development Record and Prospects
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FIGURE 1
PARLIAMENT
PARAMOUNT RULER
CABINET
MINISTRIES CENTRALAGENCIES
DEPARTMENT &AUTHORITIES
MEDIA POLITICALPARTIES
STATEADMINISTRATIONS
NGOs &INTEREST GROUPS
INDIVIDUALS
COUNCIL OFRULERS
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Major improvements based on key economic indicators . . .
• GNP per capitaRMUSDUSD (in PPP)
• Unemployment (%)• Inflation (%)• Fed. Govt. account
(% to GDP)• Current a/c of BOP
(% to GNP)
1990
6,2992,3295,284
5.13.1
-2.9
-2.1
2000
13,3333,5098,360
3.11.6
-5.8
9.4
1970
1,132368
1,2477.41.9
-4.0
0.2
1980
3,7371,7174,487
5.66.7
-13.5
-1.2
2005
17,6824,690
10,3003.53.0
-3.8
16.4
2006F
19.7395,235
11,1003.5
3.5-4.0
-3.5
17.2
4
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POPULATION SIZE AND STRUCTURE,2000 and 2010
Total Population(million persons)• Bumiputera• Chinese• Indian
Age Structure (years)
• 0 – 14• 15 – 64• 65+
Dependency Ratio (%)
Median age (years)
2000
% to
Total
2010
% to
Total
% growth2001-
10
23.314.65.61.6
7.714.60.9
59.123.9
28.918.76.51.9
8.619.01.3
52.226.7
100.0
66.125.37.4
33.162.94.0
100.0
68.323.87.1
29.765.84.5
2.22.51.51.8
1.12.63.4
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through a MIXED ECONOMIC SYSTEM of free enterprise but with active government support and directionThe GOVERNMENT provides the broad thrusts and sets direction for the whole economy, and ensures the achievements of socio-economic goalsThe PRIVATE SECTOR is free to operate and given appropriate policy, institutional and infrastructural support.
DEVELOPMENT PHILOSOPHY
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Inter AgencyInter AgencyPlanning GroupsPlanning Groups
(IAPGs)(IAPGs)
Consultations withConsultations withthe private sectorthe private sector
ThroughThroughGovernment - private sectorGovernment - private sector
dialoguesdialogues EPU dialogueEPU dialogue MOF budget dialogueMOF budget dialogue Bank Negara dialogueBank Negara dialogue MITI dialogueMITI dialogue
CONSULTATIVE PROCESS
Consultations Consultations with Civil Societywith Civil Society
MOF Budget MOF Budget Dialogue Dialogue Technical Technical
Working Groups Working Groups (TWGs)(TWGs)
Inter AgencyInter AgencyPlanning GroupsPlanning Groups
(IAPGs)(IAPGs)
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PLANNING PROCESSPLANNING PROCESS
TREASURYTREASURY ECONOMIC PLANNINGECONOMIC PLANNINGUNITUNIT
CENTRALCENTRALBANKBANK
DEPARTMENTDEPARTMENTOF STATISTICSOF STATISTICS
INTER AGENCYINTER AGENCYPLANNING GROUP (IAPG)PLANNING GROUP (IAPG)
ECONOMIC PLANNINGECONOMIC PLANNINGUNITUNIT
MINISTRIESMINISTRIES OTHEROTHERAGENCIESAGENCIES
STATESTATEGOVERNMENTGOVERNMENT
ADJUSTMENTAND MATCHING
NATIONALNATIONALDEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT
PLANNINGPLANNINGCOMMITTEECOMMITTEE
CABINETCABINET
PRIVATE SECTORPRIVATE SECTOR
PROGRAMMEPROGRAMMEAND PROJECTSAND PROJECTS
PLANNING FROM THE TOPPLANNING FROM THE TOP
PLANNING FROM BELOWPLANNING FROM BELOW
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PLANNING HORIZONPLANNING HORIZON
1. OUTLINE PERSPECTIVE PLAN
(Long term plan)
* OPP1 (1971 - 1990 )
* OPP2 ( 1991-2000 )
2. FIVE-YEAR PLAN ( Medium term )
3. MID-TERM REVIEW ( MTR ) OF THE
FIVE-YEAR PLAN
4. ANNUAL BUDGET ( Short term )
* OPP3 ( 2001-2010 )
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Major Economic Policies
• Laissez-faire / export-oriented• Economic and rural development
Growth with Equity :To eradicate poverty & restructure of society
Total Development
Balanced Development : To establish a more united & just society
Building a Resilient & Competitive Nation : To raise quality of development & generate high sustainable growth
Post-independence
1957-70
New Economic Policy (NEP)
National Development Policy (NDP)
National Vision Policy (NVP)
Vision 2020
OPP1 (1971-1990)
OPP2 (1991-2000)
OPP3 (2001-2010)
10
THE NATIONAL MISSION
2006-2020
Enhancing Nation’s Capability ~
competitiveness, unity, distribution & quality of
life
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To integrate the population into the modern economy
To redistribute the wealth of the nation
To improve the quality of life of the people, especially those in the rural areas
Social Development Programmes
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3MP'76-'80
4MP'80-'85
5MP'86-'90
6MP'91-'95
7MP'96-'00
2MP'71-'75
50.618.314.614.42.9
13.17.11.91.7
10.41.5
100.09.8
54.418.713.016.06.3
14.66.21.25.2
14.21.9
100.024.9
60.516.313.620.29.9
21.510.11.68.5
16.21.8
100.046.3
64.820.811.321.510.224.816.12.64.17.23.2
100.035.3
50.611.67.4
22.57.8
24.813.44.43.3
20.14.5
100.054.7
47.68.2
11.421.05.5
31.619.93.83.4
11.89.0
100.099.0
8MP'01-'05
38.54.66.0
19.07.5
40.825.75.64.1
13.07.7
100.0170.0
Development Expenditure Gives Priority To Economic And Social Sectors . . .
(% to Total)
EconomicAgricultureIndustryInfrastructureUtilities
SocialEducationHealthHousing
SecurityAdministration
TOTALRM billion
Sector
12
9MP'06-‘10
44.95.79.9
16.210.937.520.65.45.0
10.66.9
100.0200.0
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Malaysia had achieved most of the UN Millennium Development Goals
Eradicate poverty & hunger Achieve universal primary education Promote gender equality & empower women Reduce child mortality Improve maternal health Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria & other diseases Ensure environment sustainability Develop a global partnership for development
Socio-economic dimensions . . .
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Major Success to Eradicate Poverty
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Total 49.3 37.4 16.5 7.5 5.1 4.3
Rural 58.6 45.8 21.1 12.4 11.4 9.6
Urban 24.6 17.5 7.1 3.4 2.0 1.6
Hard-core poor 3.9 1.4 1.0 0.7
1970 1980 1990 1999 2002 2004
(% to
tal h
ouse
hold
s)
Note : a/ Poverty Line Income (PLI) revised methodolody for 2004 was RM661 per month in Peninsular Malaysia (household size 4.4); RM888 in Sabah (household size 5.2); & RM765 in Sarawak (household size 4.6). Hardcore poverty is estimated using half of PLI.
14
2004a
5.7
11.9
2.5
1.2
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Focused on human resource development and quality of life improvements
Emphasize income-generating projects and not on welfare handouts Major programmes :
Rural development– New land and in-situ development– Drainage and irrigation– Agriculture support services– Village/small industries– Upgrade rural infrastructure - roads, electricity, water– Upgrade schools & health facilities
Other programmes (hard-core poor)– Direct assistance ~ old folks home / the aged, the
handicapped – food supplements and scholarships– interest free loans
Poverty Eradication Programmes . . .D
ISTR
IBU
TIO
N A
GEN
DA
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110.93
100.0
109.82
95
100
105
110
Better Quality of Life . . .Malaysian Quality of Life Index . . .
• Working life
• Culture & leisure
• Housing
• Transport & comm.
• Health
• Education
• Income & distribution
• Social participation
• Family life
• Environment
• Public safety
MQLI
Area% Change
1990/2004
22.1
21.2
18.9
18.1
18.1
15.9
8.0
6.6
4.2
-0.3
-21.5
10.9The Malaysian Quality of Life Index (MQLI) is an aggregate measure of the quality of life using forty-two indicators, representing eleven components of life
16
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Selected Indicators Of Quality Of Life . . . reaching the level enjoyed in advanced
economies
61.6 65.6
39.4
4,302
58
17
48
44
1970 1990
Life expectancy (in years) :•Male•Female
Infant mortality rate / 1000
Population / Doctor ratio
Literacy rate (%)
Telephones / 1000 population 1
Utilities :•Pipe water (% of population)•Electricity (% of households)
68.8 73.5
13.1
2,533
85
131
80
80
2005
71.8 76.2
5.9
1,387
95.1
907
95
98
Note : 1/ Include mobile phones 2/ Universal coverage in urban areas
2
2
17
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Real GDP Growth . . .Average 1971- 80Average 1981- 90Average 1991- 2000Average 2001- 05
200020012002200320042005e
2006F
2007F
7.5 %5.8 %7.1 %4.5 %
8.9 %0.3 %4.4 %5.5 %7.2 %5.2 %5.8 %6.0 %
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Transformation From an Agro-based to an Industrial-based Economy . . .
1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 2005
Agriculture Construction Manufacturing Mining Services
RM billion
0
50
100
150
200
250
53.9 %
31.9 %
8.9 %
46.8 %
24.6 %
16.3 %26.7 %
37.5 %
12.2 % 43.1 %
17.2 %
21.0 %
58.2 %
31.6 %
8.2 %
(GDP in RM billion at 1987 prices / Percentage to Total in italics)
300
8.6 %
57.6 %
30.8 %
19
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Diversification of exports products . . . (% to Total Exports)
Manufactures 11.9
Palm Oil5.1
Others9.8
Rubber33.4
Tin19.6
Forestry16.3
Oil & gas3.9
2005RM 533,790 million
(USD141,588 million)
Manufactures 80.5
Palm Oil3.6Others
2.7Rubber1.1
Tin0.2
Forestry
1.3
Oil & gas9.2
1970RM 5,163 million
(USD2,065 million)20
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Implementing Pragmatic Fiscal Policy . . .The Federal Government Accounts, 1970-2006 (RM billion)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
'70 '76 '82 '88 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06
Revenue must cover operating expenditure and development expenditure must be financed through non-inflationary methods
RevenueRM120.6 bn
(2006)
OperatingExpenditureRM105.4 bn
(2006)
DevelopmentExpenditure
RM34.5 bn(2006)
DeficitRM19.3 bn /
-3.5% of GDP(2006)
21
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• Real GDP growth (% p.a.)
• Per capita GNP (RM) *
• Per capita GNP (US$)*
• PPP Per capita GNP (US$)*
• Inflation (% p.a.)
• Unemployment rate (%) *
• Current a/c of BOP (% GNP)*
• Fed. Govt. account (RM bil.)*
% of GDP
• Pub. Sector account (RM bil.)*
% of GDP
• External reserve (months of retained imports)*
* End of period
Prospects During The 9th Malaysia Plan, 2006-2010
9MP
Target
6.0
23,573
6,273
13,878
low
3.5
13.4
-24.3
-3.4
10.6
1.5
…
22
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Gross Domestic Product, 2000-2010 (% per annum)
GDP (real)AgricultureMiningManufacturingConstructionServices
Govt. ServicesBus. & Non-Govt. Svs.•Utilities•Transport etc•Trade etc•Finance etc•Other Services
% of GDP
2000 2005 2010
% growth per annum
Achieved8MP
Target9MP
4.53.02.64.10.56.1
6.76.0
5.66.6
4.38.14.8
6.05.03.46.73.56.5
4.56.7
5.96.7
6.87.06.6
100.08.97.3
31.93.3
53.9
6.847.1
3.98.0
14.812.77.6
100.08.26.7
31.42.7
58.1
7.650.5
4.18.8
14.715.17.8
100.07.85.9
32.42.4
59.2
7.052.2
4.19.1
15.215.88.0
23
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Political stability and harmonious society Efficient government with pro-business policies Getting fundamental policy framework right
Macroeconomic management High savings rate Industrialization strategy & Competitive investment
incentives Productive agriculture Human resource development High-quality infrastructure & social services
Key Factors For Success . . .C
oncl
usi
on
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Political environment Administrative competence and
technical expertise Involvement of private sector and
NGOs
FACTORS AFFECTING THE SOCIAL POLICY PROCESS
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Thank You