national conference of state legislatures fiscal leaders seminar … · 2012-11-30 ·...
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National Conference of State Legislatures—Fiscal Leaders Seminar December 2012
2 Understanding the 2012 Presidential Election and a Look Ahead
3 Understanding the 2012 Presidential Election and a Look Ahead
Surveys Released on Sunday and Monday Before the Election
% White Total Romney Total Obama
Final Result
Exit Poll
4 Understanding the 2012 Presidential Election and a Look Ahead
Republican Democrat Net
Difference Republican Democrat
Net Difference
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Comparing the Final NBC-WSJ Poll to Exit Polls
Exit Poll Results Final NBC-WSJ Poll (LVs)
5 Understanding the 2012 Presidential Election and a Look Ahead
Ethnicity, particularly the percent White and percent non-White composition of the electorate.
Younger voters making up 19% of the vote.
Swing states: Obama’s three point national margin carries every swing state except North Carolina.
6 Understanding the 2012 Presidential Election and a Look Ahead
$65M
$201M
$214M
$165M
$73M
$77M $30M
$86M
$48M
$18M $55M
States with the highest TV ad spending
Over 1.05 Billion was spent on TV ads in target states.
*Data from a National Journal Updated November 2nd, 2012.
7 Understanding the 2012 Presidential Election and a Look Ahead
Contacted By a Presidential Campaign
2004 30% 2008 42% 2012 50%
2012 Swing States/Total 71%*
2012 Swing States by Obama 60% 2012 Swing States by Romney 57%
*71% of people interviewed in swing states say they were contacted by at least one of the presidential campaigns.
8 Understanding the 2012 Presidential Election and a Look Ahead
And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President...
59%
19%
39%
81%
Whites Non-Whites
Mitt Romney Barack Obama
Presidential Ballot—By Whites/Non-Whites
-62% +20%
Romney won the White vote, but the margin among non-Whites voting for President Obama was too large of a divide.
9 Understanding the 2012 Presidential Election and a Look Ahead
IF. . . IF. . .
Obama’s Margin Among Non-Whites
Romney’s Margin Among Whites
Percent of White Vote Popular Vote Margin Popular Vote Margin
Final modeling before the election
10 Understanding the 2012 Presidential Election and a Look Ahead
Presidential Ballot By Ethnicity – EXIT POLL DATA Among Whites Net Republican Margin (%Rep-%Dem)
2000 +13% 2004 +17% 2008 +12% 2012 +20%
Among African Americans Net Republican Margin (%Rep-%Dem)
2000 -81% 2004 -77% 2008 -91% 2012 -87%
Among Hispanics/Latinos Net Republican Margin (%Rep-%Dem)
2000 -27% 2004 -9% 2008 -36% 2012 -44%
*Data from 2000, 2004 and 2008, 2012 Exit Poll data from the presidential elections.
This EXIT POLL DATA showing the net margins by party by year by ethnicity further paints this picture.
11 Understanding the 2012 Presidential Election and a Look Ahead
2000 2004 2008 2012
Nationally
Florida
Southwest Region
(CO,NM,NV)
Presidential Ballot Net Difference—Among Latino Voters—EXIT POLL DATA
12 Understanding the 2012 Presidential Election and a Look Ahead
13 Understanding the 2012 Presidential Election and a Look Ahead
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