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NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA1
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA2
Conditions & Policy Response through mid-2008
• Romania exhibited high annual growth rates between 2002-2008: catching-up, increased capital inflows due to improved risk perception (EU accession, NATO membership), consumption smoothing, substantial credit flows
• After 2005-6, increasing signs of overheating: widening external deficits, persistent core inflation
• NBR response: –– implementation of IT focused on ensuring compliance with sustainimplementation of IT focused on ensuring compliance with sustainable progress of able progress of
disinflation along mediumdisinflation along medium--term path described by announced annual inflation targets, whileterm path described by announced annual inflation targets, whileremaining mindful of not exacerbating existing macroeconomic vulremaining mindful of not exacerbating existing macroeconomic vulnerabilities or creating nerabilities or creating financial stability problems whose effects might compromise durafinancial stability problems whose effects might compromise durability of secured disinflation bility of secured disinflation gains: gains: ‘‘macroeconomic riskmacroeconomic risk--management perspectivemanagement perspective’’, with primacy of price stability , with primacy of price stability considerationsconsiderations
–– continuous focus on slowing down speed of growth of foreigncontinuous focus on slowing down speed of growth of foreign--exchange credit (for macro as exchange credit (for macro as well as financial stability reasons, due to increasing assetwell as financial stability reasons, due to increasing asset--liability mismatches), using all liability mismatches), using all available policy tools (reserve requirements, LTV, loanavailable policy tools (reserve requirements, LTV, loan--toto--income limits for households, income limits for households, exposure limits to unhedged borrowers, higher coefficients in stexposure limits to unhedged borrowers, higher coefficients in stress tests for exposures to ress tests for exposures to nonnon--euro credit)euro credit)
–– permanent message on need for maintaining consistency of the macpermanent message on need for maintaining consistency of the macroeconomic policy mix roeconomic policy mix (particularly avoiding procyclicality of fiscal and wage policie(particularly avoiding procyclicality of fiscal and wage policies) s)
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA3
Policy Response since end-2008• Monetary policy geared towards twin objectives of price stability & financial stability, aim
to maintain prudent broad monetary conditions at all times with regard to evolving economic environment
– policy rate decreased in 2009 from 10.25% to 8% on background of disinflation persistence: inflation reacting with a lag to substantial economic contraction
– gradual decrease in minimum reserve requirements: from 20% to 15% for domestic currency liabilities, from 40% to 30% for foreign-exchange denominated liabilities (both w. residual maturities of up to two years)
– liquidity management important policy tool in its own right, on background of NBR move to net creditor position: enhances transmission of policy signals, firm management ensures adequate functioning of financial markets w/o negative spillovers into other areas
• With external deficit adjusting sharply (from 12.3% of GDP in 2008 to under 5% of GDP in 2009), main perceived vulnerability of economy leading to exchange rate volatility alleviating from fundamentals perspective
• Despite significant economic contraction (around -8% expected in 2009), lack of degrees of freedom in easing fiscal, wage policies: need for firm consolidation in 2010 – 2011
• Enhanced supervision & permanent dialogue w. banks on regulatory issues; maintaining adequate solvency levels (10% minimum)
• Multilateral financing agreement w. EU, IMF, World Bank, other IFIs (besides reserve buildup,): restoring confidence, functioning as “crisis management program”, enhancing stability of foreign bank exposure to Romania & maintaining capital adequacy
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA4
2.1
5.75.1 5.2
8.5
4.2
7.9
6.27.1
-7.7
0.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis
annual percentage change
Real GDP
2009 H1: -7.6%
f) forecast
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA5
Gross Fixed Capital Formationand Final Private Consumption
(GDP component)
8.4
2.02.0
-11.0
19.3
29.0
19.9
15.3
11.08.88.99.9
5.5
8.5
5.2
8.4
13.0
9.611.6 9.8
0.2
-12.7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis
gross fixed capital formation
final private consumption
annual percentage change
gross fixed capital formation: -16.7% in 2009 H1final private consumption: -11.9% in 2009 H1
f) forecast
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA6
Economic Growth in Peer Countries
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
202
00
5
20
06
20
07
20
08
200
9 Q
1
200
9 Q
2
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
200
9 Q
1
200
9 Q
2
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
200
9 Q
1
200
9 Q
2
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
200
9 Q
1
200
9 Q
2
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
net exportsgross capital formation*
final consumptionGDP (rhs)
annual percentage change
Source: Eurostat
Czech Rep. Poland RomaniaHungary
contribution to annual change, pp
* including statistical discrepancy
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA7
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Bulgaria CzechRepublic*
Hungary* Poland Romania EA16
Sept.2009/Sept.2008
Sept.2009/Dec.2008
Source: Eurostat
percentage change; seasonally adjusted data
Manufacturing Output: Volume Index
* Aug.2009/Sept.2008; Aug.2009/Dec.2008
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA8
-3.1
9.310.3
2.7
-8.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan.-Sept. 2009
Source: National Institute of Statistics
Industrial Output
annual percentage change, gross data
Sept.09/Sept.08: -3.1%; Sept.09/Aug. 09: 1.3% (sa)
Note: Data recalculated according to NACE Rev.2 and to the change in the base year (2005 instead of 2000) and weighting system.
Ja
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA9
%, date ajustate sezonier
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
I/08 II III IV I/09 II III
gross fixed capital formationequipment (incl. transport means)
new buildingscapital repairs in construction
real annual percentage change
Source: National Institute of Statistics
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
I/08 II III IV I/09 II III
equipment loans
real estate loans
real annual percentage change, stock data
Source: National Bank of Romania
Investment Demand and LoansInvestment Demand and Loans
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA10
Consumer Demand: Main Categories and Drivers
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
I/08 II III IV I/09 II III
purchases ofgoods andservicestrade turnover:durables
trade turnover:non-durables
real annual percentage change
Source: NIS, NBR calculations
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
I/08 II III IV I/09 II III-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10consumer credit – newbusinessdisposable income*
consumer confidenceindicator** (rhs)
* last value: Jul-Aug'09; ** last value: Jul-Oct '09
Source: NIS, EC-DG ECFIN, MPF, NBR
% balance of answers, %
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Jan
.08
Ma
y.08
Sep
.08
Jan
.09
Ma
y.09
Sep
.09
timedeposits(RON)*
householdtimedeposits(euro)**
flow, annual percentage change
Source: NBR, Eurostat
* real change (CPI) ** real change (IAPC)
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA11
Headline Inflation and CORE Inflation
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10D
ec.
05
Fe
b.0
6
Ap
r.0
6
Jun.
06
Au
g.0
6
Oc
t.06
De
c.0
6
Fe
b.0
7
Ap
r.0
7
Jun.
07
Au
g.0
7
Oc
t.07
De
c.0
7
Fe
b.0
8
Ap
r.0
8
Jun.
08
Au
g.0
8
Oc
t.08
De
c.0
8
Fe
b.0
9
Ap
r.0
9
Jun.
09
Au
g.0
9
Oc
t.09
annual percentage change
CPI (total)
CORE1 (CPI – administered prices)
CORE2 (CORE1 – volatile prices*)
adjusted CORE2**
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania calculations
*) products with volatile prices: vegetables, fruit, eggs, fuels
**) excluding tobacco and alcoholic beverages
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA12
Inflation Forecast
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
I2009
II III IV I2010
II III IV I2011
II III
uncertainty interval
variation band*
4-quarter inflation rate
target
annual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
I2009
II III IV I2010
II III IV I2011
II III
variation band*
target
4-quarter inflation rate
annual percentage change
Inflation targets (Dec./Dec.) 2009: 3.5% 2010: 3.5% 2011: 3.0%
*) ±1 percentage point around the central targetSource: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania calculations
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA13
Inflation Rate and Interest Rates
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32Ja
n.0
4M
ay.0
4S
ep
.04
Jan
.05
May
.05
Se
p.0
5Ja
n.0
6M
ay.0
6S
ep
.06
Jan
.07
May
.07
Se
p.0
7Ja
n.0
8M
ay.0
8S
ep
.08
Jan
.09
May
.09
Se
p.0
9
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics
percent
inflation rate (percentage change against the same year-earlier period)
interest rate on monetary policy operations(stock; % p.a.)
NBR policy rate (% p.a.)
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
Jan
.04
Ma
y.0
4S
ep.0
4J
an.0
5M
ay.
05
Sep
.05
Jan
.06
Ma
y.0
6S
ep.0
6J
an.0
7M
ay.
07
Sep
.07
Jan
.08
Ma
y.0
8S
ep.0
8J
an.0
9M
ay.
09
Sep
.09
percent
inflation rate (percentage change against the same year-earlier period)
average interest rate on lei-denominated loans to non-financial corporations and households (% p.a.)
average interest rate on lei-denominated time deposits fromnon-financial corporations and households (% p.a.)
NBR policy rate: 8.0% starting with September 30, 2009
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA14
Widening Spread between Interbank Rates and Policy Rate
0
5
10
15
20
25J
an.0
7
Apr
.07
Jul.0
7
Oct
.07
Jan
.08
Apr
.08
Jul.0
8
Oct
.08
Jan
.09
Apr
.09
Jul.0
9
Oct
.09
Source: National Bank of Romania
policy rate
average interbank rate (excl. NBR)
monthly average, % p.a.
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA15
Domestic Demand and Current Account Deficit
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
I/08 II III IV I/09 II
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
CAD (rhs)
domestic demand
GDP
real annual percentage change % in GDP, rolling basis
Source: National Institut of Statistics, National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA16
-3.7
-5.5
-3.3
-5.8
-8.4 -8.6
-10.4
-13.5
-12.3
-4.6 -4.8
2000 2001 2002 2003* 2004* 2005* 2006* 2007* 2008* 2009f* 2010f*
Current Account Balancepercent of GDP
*) including reinvested earnings
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis f) forecast
Jan.-Aug. 2009: EUR 2.4 bn., down 78.6% yoy
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA17
Current Account Deficit Financing via FDI
-16.7(13.5% GDP)
-16.9 (12.3% GDP)
7.0(5.7% GDP)
9.3 (6.8% GDP)
0.7(0.6% GDP)
0.6(0.4% GDP)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2007 2008
capital transfersforeign direct investmentcurrent account balance
EUR bn.
Current account financing via FDI (including capital transfers) amounted to 58.4% in 2008 vs 46.5% in 2007. In 2008, net FDI increased 31.6% yoy.
-11.4
-2.4
6.8
3.1
0.3
0.2
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jan.-Aug. 2008 Jan.-Aug. 2009
capital transfers
foreign direct investment
current account balance
Current account financing via FDI (including capital transfers) amounted to 134.1% in Jan.-Aug. 2009 vs 62.6% in Jan.-Aug. 2008. In Jan.-Aug. 2009, net FDI decreased 55.2% yoy.
EUR bn.
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA18
*) Jan.- Jul.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6J
an.0
6
Ma
y.0
6
Sep
.06
Jan
.07
Ma
y.0
7
Sep
.07
Jan
.08
Ma
y.0
8
Sep
.08
Jan
.09
Ma
y.0
9
Sep
.09
trade balance exports fob
imports fob
EUR bn.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan
.06
Ma
y.0
6
Sep
.06
Jan
.07
Ma
y.0
7
Sep
.07
Jan
.08
Ma
y.0
8
Sep
.08
Jan
.09
Ma
y.0
9
Sep
.09
exports fobimports fobtrade balance
index, as against the same period of previous year
Trade Balance(monthly data)
Source: National Institute of Statistics
In Jan.-Sept. 2009, yoy decrease of exports and imports was 18.3% and 36.0% respectively.
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA19
Nominal Exchange Rate
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.5
Jan
.02
Ma
y.0
2
Se
p.0
2
Jan
.03
Ma
y.0
3
Se
p.0
3
Jan
.04
Ma
y.0
4
Se
p.0
4
Jan
.05
Ma
y.0
5
Se
p.0
5
Jan
.06
Ma
y.0
6
Se
p.0
6
Jan
.07
Ma
y.0
7
Se
p.0
7
Jan
.08
Ma
y.0
8
Se
p.0
8
Jan
.09
Ma
y.0
9
Se
p.0
9
Source: National Bank of Romania
RON/EUR (daily data)
NBR's decision to pursue a more flexible exchange rate
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA20
Real Exchange Rate of the RON against the EUR
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260Ja
n.0
1
Ma
y.0
1
Se
p.0
1
Jan.
02
Ma
y.0
2
Se
p.0
2
Jan.
03
Ma
y.0
3
Se
p.0
3
Jan.
04
Ma
y.0
4
Se
p.0
4
Jan.
05
Ma
y.0
5
Se
p.0
5
Jan.
06
Ma
y.0
6
Se
p.0
6
Jan.
07
Ma
y.0
7
Se
p.0
7
Jan.
08
Ma
y.0
8
Se
p.0
8
Jan.
09
Ma
y.0
9
Se
p.0
9
index, 2000 = 100, monthly averages
based on CPI differential between Romania and Euro area
based on PPI differential between Romania and Euro area
based on ULC in industry
Source: National Bank of Romania calculations, National Institute of Statistics, IMF - International Financial Statistics
Note: For PPI and ULC, data recalculated according to NACE Rev.2 and to the change in the base year (2005 instead of 2000) and weighting system.
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA21
100
105
110
115
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania calculations
previous year =100
labour productivity gross real wage (based on PPI)
Real Wage and Labour Productivity in Industry
*) Jan.-Aug.
Note: Data recalculated according to NACE Rev.2 and to the change in the base year (2005 instead of 2000) and weighting system.
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA22
Gross International Reserves
02468
1012141618202224262830323436
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: National Bank of Romania
banks' foreign exchangereservesNBR foreign exchangereservesgold
EUR billion
Gross Official Reserves
024681012141618202224262830323436
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
NBR foreign exchange reserves
gold
EUR billion
200
9O
ct.
2009
Sep
.
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA23
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Oct.
fx off. reserves - months of imports*
off. reserves- months of imports*
private debt - months of exports*
months
Note: for 2009, calculations based on prospective imports
Sept
embe
r
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009***0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000fx off. reserves/ST ext. debt (resid. maturity)
fx off. reserves/ST ext. debt (orig. maturity)
fx off. reserves (t)/MLT debt service (t+1)**
fx off. reserves/CAD (rhs)
** For 2008, calculations based on estimated debt service for 2009*** August for reserves and ST external debt stock; 2009 estimate for CAD; Sep.09 - Aug.10 estimate for MLT debt service
percent
Reserves and Debt Indicators
Source: National Bank of Romania; National Institute of Statistics; National Commission of Prognosis * goods and services
percent
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA24
Source: National Bank of Romania
MLT External Debt
0.2 0.4 0.9 1.0 3.2 5.5
7.2
5.6 6.0 7.912.4
17.0
25.3
35.2
37.3
9.2 9.710.0
11.310.7
10.2
10.7
12.8
6.60.2 0
5
10
1520
2530
35
40
4550
55
60
65
70
7580
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
200
9*
public and publicly guaranteed debt
private debt
deposits of non-residents
IMF loans
EUR billionTotal External Debt
15.0 15.9 18.324.6
28.6
38.7
51.4
62.9
1.2 2.03.2
6.3
12.5
19.8
20.6
15.3
05
10
1520
25
30
35
40
4550
5560
65
70
75
80
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
20
09*
ST debt(majority private debt)
MLT debt
EUR billion
*) September
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA25
Public Debt
15.7 16.1
6.99.9
5.8
15.4
11.1 9.8 8.7 7.8
16.213.5
6.1
4.7
2.6 4.0
8.8
5.3
21.022.6
26.025.0
21.5
15.8
12.4 12.713.6
18.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f
Source: Ministry of Public Finance, National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics
domestic public debt/GDP
foreign public debt/GDP
percent of GDP(according to ESA 95 methodology)
f) EDP Notification, October 2009
Note: Government securities in MFIs portfolio as share of GDP in Dec.07=1.7%, Dec.08=2.2% and Aug.09=7%
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA26
-4.4
-3.5
-2.0-1.5
-1.2 -1.2
-2.2-2.6
-5.5
-7.9
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f
Source: Ministry of Public Finance, National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis
General Government Deficit
percent of GDP(according to ESA 95 methodology)
f) EDP Notification, October 2009
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA27
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan
.08
Fe
b.0
8
Ma
r.0
8
Ap
r.08
Ma
y.08
Jun
.08
Jul.0
8
Au
g.0
8
Sep
.08
Oct
.08
No
v.08
De
c.0
8
Jan
.09
Fe
b.0
9
Ma
r.0
9
Ap
r.09
Ma
y.09
Jun
.09
Jul.0
9
Au
g.0
9
Sep
.09
Oct
.09
No
v.09
Romania (BB+) Czech Rep. (A)
Bulgaria (BBB-) Hungary (BBB)
Latvia (BB+) Poland (A-)
Lithuania (BBB)
Source: Bloomberg
Eurobond Spreads
basis points
Note: The spread is calculated as against the yields on German Bunds maturing in 2012 Bond maturity: 2011 for Hungary; 2012 for Poland, Romania and Lithuania; 2013 for Bulgaria; ' ' 2014 for Czech Republic and Latvia () Composite rating (Moody's, S&P, Fitch)
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA28
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400Ja
n.0
8
Fe
b.0
8
Ma
r.08
Ap
r.0
8
May
.08
Jun
.08
Jul.0
8
Aug
.08
Se
p.0
8
Oct
.08
Nov
.08
De
c.08
Jan
.09
Fe
b.0
9
Ma
r.09
Ap
r.0
9
May
.09
Jun
.09
Jul.0
9
Aug
.09
Se
p.0
9
Oct
.09
Nov
.09
Latvia Czech Rep. Lithuania Poland
Hungary Bulgaria Romania
Spreads of Five-year CDS for Emerging Economiesin Central and Eastern Europe
Source: Bloomberg
basis points
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA29
Financial Intermediation*
9.414.1
16.4 16.6
11.3
12.7
19.522.7
4.87.4
11.4
19.711.8
13.3
15.4
18.6
19.6
6.3
10.317.3
41.0
16.6
20.7
26.8
35.9
39.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
percent
loans to non-financial corporations a.o.
loans to households
foreign-exchange-denominated loans
lei-denominated loans
*) loans to the private sector / GDP f) forecast
f
- Stocks -
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA30
Debtors
15.214.6
12.7
21.1
25.326.8
19.9
22.724.623.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2007Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2008Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2009Q1
Q2
loans to households
loans to non-financial corporations a.o.
percent
Currency
23.4 24.622.7
19.9
25.3
21.1
12.714.6 15.2
26.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2007Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2008Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2009Q1
Q2
foreign-exchange-denominated loans
lei-denominated loans
percent
*) percent in quarterly GDP
Financial Intermediation*- Flows -
Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA31
Loans to the Private Sector
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140D
ec.
05
Ma
r.0
6Ju
n.0
6S
ep
.06
De
c.0
6M
ar.
07
Jun
.07
Se
p.0
7D
ec.
07
Ma
r.0
8Ju
n.0
8S
ep
.08
De
c.0
8M
ar.
09
Jun
.09
Se
p.0
9
lei-denominated loans
total
foreign-exchange-denominated loans
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
De
c.0
5M
ar.
06
Jun
.06
Se
p.0
6D
ec.
06
Ma
r.0
7Ju
n.0
7S
ep.
07
De
c.0
7M
ar.
08
Jun
.08
Se
p.0
8D
ec.
08
Ma
r.0
9Ju
n.0
9S
ep.
09
households
total
non-financial corporations & financialcorporations other than MFIs
real annual percentage change*
*) based on CPI
real annual percentage change*
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA32
Private Sector Deposits
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics
(in real terms)
lei-denominated deposits
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Dec
.05
Ma
r.0
6Ju
n.0
6S
ep.0
6D
ec.0
6M
ar.
07
Jun
.07
Sep
.07
Dec
.07
Ma
r.0
8Ju
n.0
8S
ep.0
8D
ec.0
8M
ar.
09
Jun
.09
Sep
.09
lei billion
corporations*
households
(de
flate
d b
y C
PI,
Sep
. 20
09=
10
0)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
De
c.0
5M
ar.0
6Ju
n.0
6S
ep
.06
De
c.0
6M
ar.0
7Ju
n.0
7S
ep
.07
De
c.0
7M
ar.0
8Ju
n.0
8S
ep
.08
De
c.0
8M
ar.0
9Ju
n.0
9S
ep
.09
lei billion
corporations*
households
foreign-exchange-denominated deposits
*) non-financial corporations and financial corporations other than MFIs
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA33
1.23
1.03
0.66
0.32
0.220.200.260.28
3.220.64
-2.90
12.66
15.62
10.24 9.43
17.04
0.280.05
-0.251.561.011.281.601.98
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
De
c.0
4
De
c.0
5
De
c.0
6
De
c.0
7
De
c.0
8
Ma
r.0
9
Jun
.09
Se
p.0
9
Source: National Bank of Romania
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
overdue and doubtful loans /total loans portfolio (net value)
ROE (net income / total equity); rhs
ROA (net income / total assets); rhs
percent percent
Analysis Ratios for the Banking System (1)
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA34
13.7
20.6 21.1
18.1
13.8 13.8 13.2 13.5
2.39
1.63
2.13
2.312.28
2.592.47
2.31
10
15
20
25
30D
ec.0
4
Dec
.05
Dec
.06
Dec
.07
Dec
.08
Ma
r.0
9
Jun
.09
Sep
.09
Source: National Bank of Romania
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
solvency ratio liquidity ratio (rhs)
percent
Analysis Ratios for the Banking System (2)percent
At present, no credit institution has a solvency ratio below the 10 percent threshold.
NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA35
percent
Dec.07 Mar.08 Jun.08 Sep.08 Dec.08 Mar.09 Jun.09 Sep.09
1 13.78 12.99 12.78 11.85 13.76 13.16 13.51 13.73
2 7.32 7.20 7.30 7.10 8.13 6.81 6.92 7.04
3 59.09 62.06 63.47 65.04 62.50 60.00 59.11 60.34
4 29.98 27.54 26.09 24.79 26.01 24.98 23.91 21.91
5 0.22 0.22 0.30 0.24 0.32 0.67 1.03 1.27
6 0.77 0.83 0.95 1.07 1.37 2.16 2.68 3.13
7 0.17 0.19 0.25 0.22 0.29 0.52 0.75 0.928
9 1.01 1.51 1.44 1.77 1.56 -0.25 0.05 0.28
10 9.43 16.45 15.82 19.41 17.04 -2.90 0.64 3.22
11 38.70 34.98 33.23 31.74 34.43 33.05 33.62 34.08
12 2.13 2.29 2.30 2.45 2.47 2.31 2.39 1.63
13 108.7 116.1 119.6 124.7 122.0 124.7 119.2 117.6Note:(1) Indicators calculated based on accounting prudential reports.
BANKING INDICATORS (Banks, Foreign Bank Branches and CREDITCOOP)
87.785.4 90.5
x = i t is not the case
Loans to clients / Deposits from clients
ROA (Net profit /Total assets, average)
Source: National Bank of Romania
(2) Indicators calculated based on loan classification reports (pursuant to Regulation 5/2002, as subsequently amended and supplemented). Loan exposures are classified by credit institutions in line with debt servicing, the debtor’s financial standing and
91.0 89.7
ROE (Net profit / Own capital, average)
Liquidity
Profitability
Cash ratio
Liquidity ratio (effective liquidity / required liquidity)
88.5Provisioning for risk-weighted exposure of banks to non-bank loans and interbank placements and related interest classified under "substandard", "doubtful" and "loss" (2)
Loans (gross value) / Total assets (gross value) (1)
Interbank placements and loans (gross value) / Total assets (gross value) (1)
86.2 89.6
Indicators
Leverage ratio (Tier 1 capital /Total assets, average)
Asset quality
Capital adequacy
Solvency ratio (>8%)
Past-due and doubtful loans / Total loan portfolio (net value) (1)
Past-due and doubtful claims / Total assets (net value) (1)
Past-due and doubtful loans/Total loan portfolio (gross value)