Somewhere to run to, nowhere to hideStephen Rhind-Tutt, PresidentNASIG Meeting, Washington, DC.May 2015

Overview

1. Some background on Alexander Street2. A note on Technology Forecasting 3. What materials are we working with?4. Who do we serve? What do they want?5. What does it mean for the industry?6. What does it mean for Alexander Street?

Some background on Alexander Street

• Publisher of primary sources, streaming video and music.• 100+ people - offices in the US, the UK, China and Australia• Recognized by E-content magazine as one of 100 companies

‘that matter most in the digital economy’

Some of our publications

The Landscape… challenges facing us

By 2020 the Web will contain…?

• 90% of published works prior to 1923

• Majority of works published to 2020• > 100 billion pages of e-mail, phone logs, databases, blogs,

and Web sites (currently 45 billion)

• > 1 trillion Photos (As of 1/13 Facebook had 240 Bn photos. 1.1 Bn uploaded over New Years alone)

• > 100 million facsimile pages of manuscripts

• > 30 million published audio files

• > 2.4 billion video files on YouTube (1 billion unique users per month)

Exponentially more use…

• >1 billion unique users monthly• >4 billion hours watched monthly• 300 hours of video are uploaded every minute• 50% annual growth rate• 50% of usage is mobile• In 2011, YouTube had more than 1 trillion views or around

140 views for every person on Earth

http://www.youtube.com/yt/press/statistics.html 5/22/2015 and 4/3/13

What does this have to do with academic publishing?

Let’s wind back the clock…

NASIG Conference Topics over 25 years

1990: The Journal as a Provider of Community Services - John Cox

1993: The Transformation of Scholarly Communication and the Role of the Library in the Age of Networked Information – Cliff Lynch

1994: Library Cultures in Conflict: Exploring New Roles for Librarians Johann Van Reenen

1995: If Publishers Perished, Just What Would Be Lost? Barbara Woodford

1999: It's Personal, It's Digital and It's Serial Ellen J. Waite-Franzen

2000: The Open Archives Initiative: Interoperable, Interdisciplinary Author Self-Archiving Comes of Age - Richard E. Luce

$$$$$$

• Publishers won’t be needed because of OA and because libraries will publish themselves

• Reference publishers will disappear because of Wikipedia

• Libraries won’t be needed because content will be free or because vendors go direct to faculty

• Teaching faculty won’t be needed because online learning enables millions to be taught automatically

• Universities won’t be needed because it’s cheaper and easier to educate online

Reoccurring nightmares…

June 2006

‘All technologies evolve and die…’

• Can’t be networked • Single User• Won’t improve over time• No ‘computer consumption’

• No functionality • Not hyper linked • Small• Manual

• Many worried about their future• Many holding on to the past• Where are the sunlit uplands?

Conclusion

What do customers want?

Faculty - teach better

Students - learn faster, better, cheaper

Researchers - discover more, faster

Practitioners – better job performance

An evolution, not a revolution!

Fading Growing

Typesetting Printing

Print monograph Print directory

Public domain reprintsSimple, one database search

Non-traditional content

Linking

Licensing

Open Access

Process integration

Unified search software

Workflow tools

Warehousing

CollaborationAsset management

Commissioning

Editorial

Quality

Selection

Metrics & Measurement

Run up the value!

Fading Growing

Typesetting Printing

Print monograph Print directory

Public domain reprintsSimple, one database search

Non-traditional content

Linking

Licensing

Open Access

Process integration

Unified search software

Workflow tools

Warehousing

CollaborationAsset management

Commissioning

Editorial

Quality

Selection

Metrics & Measurement

Somewhere to run to…

After Data, Information, Knowledge, and Wisdom, Gene Bellinger, Durval Castro,

Anthony Mills. http://www.systems-thinking.org/

Who, What, When, Where?

Therefore

Why?

You can project the future……and not just by guessing

Example: Projections from 1900

• ‘Quadricycles’, ‘Phaetons’, ‘Horseless Carriages’, ‘Autocars’ ?• Electric, Hydrogen or Gasoline ? (weight to power ratio)• Wood, Steel, or combination ? (weight to safety)• Custom or mass produced ? • Faster? Will UK laws continue to restrict speed to 5 mph?• Easier or harder to drive?• Cheaper or more expensive?

(Source: Various Articles in The Living Age, 1904)

By 1920• Motor cars• Horsepower to weight ratio - Gasoline and clearly going to

improve in future• Materials – Steel• Production line – Mass produced• Standard easy-to-use pedal/brake system• Speed: 45 – 60 mph • Costs – Model T cost $300

Will the car of the future be…

• Networked?• Self-driving?• Sharable?• Safer?• Greener?

OCLC Environmental Scan from 2003!

Leading indicators

Consumer Leader

Academic Version

# of YearsDelay

Simple search vs. Boolean search

Google (2000) Slow evolution Multiple

Social Networking Facebook (2004) Mendeley (2007)LibGuides (2007)

3

Audio on Web Napster (1999) Classical.com Library version (2001)

2

Video on Web YouTube (2004) ASP (2006) 2

Mobile Apps Apple (2008) Slow evolution Multiple

SaaS Multiple (2001) Slow evolution Multiple

The future is clear enough to act on…

• Is Open Access going to grow or shrink?

• Will machine aided indexing get better or worse over the next 5 years?

• Will tomorrow’s students be more or less media centric?

• Will Wikipedia become better or worse?

• Is the cost of space and storage going to increase or decrease?

• Will mobile devices become standard in education?

• Is education going to get more expensive?

• Will distance learning grow or decrease in the future?

….and what does that mean for our organizations.

Understand the mediumDon’t fight it, exploit its potential

“You must consult the laws of nature…you say “What do you want brick?” and the brick says to you “I like an arch” and you say to brick “Look, I want one too, but arches are expensive…” Brick says “I like an arch”…

“Honor the material you use”

Louis Kahn (1979)

The nature of virtual space…

• Steel – High cost to create, strong, easy to stamp shapes, medium weight…

• Wood – Low cost to create, moderately strong, needs to be crafted, light weight…

• Glass – Medium cost to create, weak, easy to craft, transparent…

• The Web - ?

Understanding the medium

Nature of electronic publications

• Atomic - enormously pliable• Everything interconnected with links • Links more important than the destination

Page Page Page

Page

Datum Page Article

Video Page

• Speeds research and learning• Fewer interfaces to learn and navigate• Reduces duplication• Increases comprehensiveness• Allows unified annotation

• Lowers costs• Libraries don’t purchase same content twice• Publishers don’t need to license and re-sell ubiquitous content• Obviates need for updates

• Maximizes usage• Content can be part of every search

• Increases functionality• Allows machine manipulation of data• Linkages not just between content but between apps

Linking

Understanding the medium

01110100110100001011011010001011101000100011101010101010101010111110101010101011111010111001000111

Binary

Machine Code

Assembly Code

Programming languages

Java, C, Python, VB, etc…

Nature of electronic publications

• Pliability -> Can add ever more functionality• Unlimited size -> Very large databases• Marginal delivery cost -> Open Access

Electronic Journals vs. books…Electronic Journals Books E-Books

Cost/item/person > 0.002 ¢ > $20 -

Size Unlimited 100-1000 Pages -

Accessibility Site Person at a time

(+)

Organization Integrated Isolated (+)

Searchability 20 entry points 2 entry points (+)

Division Atomic + Linear Linear -

Currency Daily updates > Quarterly -

Delivery speed Instant > Day ? Instant

Interaction ? None -

Process integration ? None -

Social Networks make most use of the medium...

Electronic Journals Open Network Sites

Cost/item/person 0.002 ¢ Free

Size Unlimited Unlimited

Accessibility Site Universal

Primary Organization Single Static Multiple, Dynamic

Searchability 20 entry points Multiple entry points

Division Atomic + Linear Atomic

Currency Daily updates Minute by minute

Delivery speed Instant Instant

Interaction/community ? Multiple

Process integration ? Multiple

Fighting against the medium?

Against the medium

With the medium

DRM Early E-books, films Free content

One-check-out models Netlibrary (1995) Ebrary

Unexposed metadata Anon. Multiple

Gated gardens AOL (1993) Google (2000)

Local hosting CD-ROM (1998) Cloud Computing

Directory vs. search Yahoo Google (2000)

Steady predictable improvement…

Catalogs, Abstract and Indexing databases

Stock & News

Full-Text Journals

Full-Text Books

Audio

Video

FT Court Cases

1966 1973 1984 1990 1997 2000 2005

Directories

Where we’re headed

After Data, Information, Knowledge, and Wisdom, Gene Bellinger, Durval Castro,

Anthony Mills. http://www.systems-thinking.org/

Who, What, When, Where?

Therefore

Why?

Somewhere to run to(In the long run customers get what they want…)

An evolution, not a revolution!

Fading Growing

Typesetting Printing

Print monograph Print directory

Public domain reprintsSimple, one database search

Non-traditional content

Linking

Licensing

Open Access

Process integration

Unified search software

Workflow tools

Warehousing

CollaborationAsset management

Commissioning

Editorial

Quality

Selection

Metrics & Measurement

The trends…

• Non traditional content – audio, video, data sets• Connectivity - linking• Open Access• Workflow• Metrics & Measurements• Collaboration• Text mining• Reducing cost of education• Reducing ‘wastage’ in education

Example: Non-traditional content

http://www.oclc.org/content/dam/research/publications/library/2014/oclcresearch-collection-directions-preprint-2014.pdf

15 times faster to read than to watch…

30 minutes of news

12 double spaced pages 5 minutes to read in depth2 minutes to scan read

Transformation

• See history as it happened• View 3,000+ leading academics• 3,000+ witnesses to history • Explanations and enthusiasm• Accessible in seconds

Once you get on the other side you can see more clearly…

Is mobile going to become more popular?

We currently have Send to Mobile on all video and audio across the platform.

Over past 6 months, c. 5% of visits came from a mobile device.

New look and feel will be 'responsive' to accommodate for smaller screens.

Example: Linking

Example: Linking - Be of the web

Music

NewspapersWebsites

Monographs

Primary Works

Journals

Inbound linking

• Unified, multi-database, multidiscipline cross-search• Preserving and opening controlled vocabularies • Single Open API for third-party access

Start with all ASP content on one platform…

Mobile

Embeds

DiscoveryServices

MARC

Inbound links

SearchEngines

RDF ?

Philosophical issues• Many don’t want to link to ‘for fee’ objects• Charge for traffic generated or to generate traffic?• Building links is expensive. Who pays?• When things change who’s responsible?• Vested interests

Technical• Authentication• Permissions• Automated tools lacking

Challenges to building links

Outbound links

• Higher value links• Semantic indexing and keyword searching

of more than 3,000 oral history collections• Represents the personal histories of some

300,000 people• Value:

– Context– Selection– Search power– Licensed material– Integration

Early Example - Oral History Online

Browsing value…

Search Power

Context for results

Example: Open Access

The customer wants…

Breadth (everything relevant)

Depth (in as much detail as possible)

Concepts

Articles

Data Sets

Books

Definitions, Encyclopedia Entries Citations and References

Grey Literature

PrimaryMaterials

Video

In music…

Breadth (everything relevant)

Depth (in as much detail as possible)

12 Controlled Vocabularies

JournalArticles

User Playlists

Reference

Definitions, Encyclopedia Entries Links, Citations and References

Listening Services Scores Video

User Contributed Recordings

In music

Breadth (everything relevant)

Depth (in as much detail as possible)

12 Controlled Vocabularies

JournalArticles

150k User Created Playlists

Reference

Definitions, Encyclopedia Entries Links, Citations and References

Listening Services Scores Video

User Contributed Recordings

Presented by Viktor Henning, Fiesole Conference, 2013 http://www.casalini.it/retreat/2013_docs/5_Henning.pdf

Example: Workflow & Process

Sian HarrisCompleting the information cycle, Research Information: June/July 2013,

Read about Discoveries

Plan Experiments

Conduct Experiments

AnalyzeResults

ShareResults

PublishDiscoveries

Summary

• Change in our field is slower than you think• The trends have been the same for a long time• They’re led by external related industries• You can project where we’re headed• There are lots of opportunities• But they require change…

Hold onto the old…

Or Change

‘We help scientists make new discoveries…by combining high-quality content and data with analytics and technology”

“[Our strategy is…]must have information, media neutral databases…sophisticated indexing, cross-referencing and retrieving capabilities”

Elsevier Company Report: 2014

Elsevier Company Report: 1995

The first publishing medium is still around…and going strong

Cuneiform Tablet 3500 BCE

Stone Tablet AD 2015

www.alexanderstreet.comopenmusiclibrary.org