nanotechnology forecasting
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Nanotechnology Forecasting. The NSU Group. Raymond Su Steve Woltosz Lauren Godfrey Shahram Sangari. MGT-555 Technology Forecasting and Strategic Planning March 20, 2000. Agenda. What is Nanotechnology? Who is Zyvex? Strategic Management at Zyvex Five Forecasting Environments - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Nanotechnology Forecasting
The NSU Group
Raymond SuSteve Woltosz
Lauren GodfreyShahram Sangari
MGT-555Technology
Forecasting and Strategic Planning
March 20, 2000
Agenda
• What is Nanotechnology?• Who is Zyvex?• Strategic Management at
Zyvex• Five Forecasting Environments• Technical Environment• Economic Environment• Ecological Environment• Political Environment• Social Environment• Summary
What is Nanotechnology?
• Nanotechnology is molecular manufacturing
• Nanotechnology proposes the construction of novel molecular devices possessing extraordinary properties
• The trick is to manipulate atoms individually and place them exactly where needed to produce the desired structure
Who is Zyvex?
• Zyvex was founded in April 1997– by Jim Von Ehr, in Richardson, Texas
• Zyvex is the first company founded to develop molecular nanotechnology
• Zyvex is a developmental engineering and directed research company
• With a 5-10 year time horizon for its first revenue, it is one of those rare startups that need not be focused on near-term profits
Strategic Management at Zyvex
• FORMULATE– Mission Statement: none published to public
• DEVELOP– Company Profile: Zyvex is the first molecular nanotechnology development company. They are creating technology for atomically precise manufacturing.
• ANALYZE– Company’s Options: Zyvex is a developmental engineering and directed research company currently funded at a level sufficient to do both its own research and sponsor directed research grants to universities doing research in complementary fields. They see a 5-10 year time horizon for their first revenue.
• INDENTIFY– Most Desirable: Zyvex’s goal is to build one of the key pieces of molecular nanotechnology; the assembler
Strategic Management at Zyvex
• IMPLEMENT - The Strategy•Business opportunities will follow the development of Molecular Nano- Technology (MNT), somewhat in line with how the capabilities are likely to develop
– Phase 1: Make precise structures one at a time– Phase 2: Make nanostructured materials in volume– Phase 3: Make complex objects in quantity– Phase 4: Make a nanocomputer– Phase 5: Make autonomous devices
(power source, programming)
Environmental Interactions DiagramPOLITICAL
ENVIRONMENTTECHNICAL
ENVIRONMENT
SOCIALENVIRONMENT
ECONOMICENVIRONMENT
ECOLOGICALENVIRONMENT
THE INSTITUTION
MANAGEMENT
TECHNICALRESOURCES AND
FACILITIES
COMPETITIVE
TH
E
INS
TIT
UT
ION
S
Technical Environment Forecasts
• Computing Technology– CPU’s Billions of Times Faster– Diamond Memory
• Molecular Machines for Medical Use– The Nanoglobin
• Oxygen Transport Vehicle• Self-Assembling Consumer
Goods– The Universal AssemblerForecasting Techniques Used:
Trend, Delphi (NGT),
Normative,Scenario1
1 Not an actual forecast technique according to Bright in Practical Technology Forecasting, 1998
Economic Environment Forecasts
ForecastingTechniques Used:
Trend, Delphi (NGT),
Normative,Scenario1
• Contemporary Labor • Concept of Money• Future Quake• Market Economy
1 Not an actual forecast technique according to Bright in Practical Technology Forecasting, 1998
Ecological Environment Forecasts
• Friendly Energy– Solar Cells Generator
• Goodbye Dumpsites– Chemical & Nuclear – New Green Manufacturing– Zero By-Products Waste
• Positive Impact Agriculture– High Performance Greenhouses
• The Vivisectionist Solution– Cellular Probe & Metabolic
Models
All of these tend to employ a variant of
the Delphi (NGT),Normative, and Scenario1
Forecasting Techniques
1 Not an actual forecast technique according to Bright in Practical Technology Forecasting, 1998
Political Environment Forecasts
•FY 2001 Budget Request– includes a $227 million increase for nanotechnology; should
increase dramatically over the next 20 years
•National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI)– Long-term fundamental nanoscience and engineering
research» Centers and networks of excellence» Research infrastructures» Ethical, legal, societal implications and
workforce education and training
•Indefinite Life Spans:
– How to deal with the possibility of overpopulation– Increased healthcare, welfare, and social security costs
•Arms Race & the Next World War
Social Environment Forecasts
• Changing Dynamics in the Workforce– Fewer jobs; especially in manufacturing/skilled labor
• Possible Elimination of the Need for Currency
• Computer-Human Interfaces:– could lead to vast imbalances of power in society
• Potential for Mass Annihilation By Out-of-control Nanobots
ForecastingTechniques Used:
Delphi (NGT), Scenario1
1 Not an actual forecast technique according to Bright in Practical Technology Forecasting, 1998
Summary
• Nanotechnology at Zyvex• Forecasting Environments• Forecasting Techniques Used
– Trend– Delphi– Normative– Scenario
See Ya in the “Future”!