nanotechnology forecasting

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Nanotechnology Forecasting The NSU Group Raymond Su Steve Woltosz Lauren Godfrey Shahram Sangari MGT-555 Technology Forecasting and Strategic Planning March 20, 2000

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Nanotechnology Forecasting. The NSU Group. Raymond Su Steve Woltosz Lauren Godfrey Shahram Sangari. MGT-555 Technology Forecasting and Strategic Planning March 20, 2000. Agenda. What is Nanotechnology? Who is Zyvex? Strategic Management at Zyvex Five Forecasting Environments - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Nanotechnology Forecasting

Nanotechnology Forecasting

The NSU Group

Raymond SuSteve Woltosz

Lauren GodfreyShahram Sangari

MGT-555Technology

Forecasting and Strategic Planning

March 20, 2000

Page 2: Nanotechnology Forecasting

Agenda

• What is Nanotechnology?• Who is Zyvex?• Strategic Management at

Zyvex• Five Forecasting Environments• Technical Environment• Economic Environment• Ecological Environment• Political Environment• Social Environment• Summary

Page 3: Nanotechnology Forecasting

What is Nanotechnology?

• Nanotechnology is molecular manufacturing

• Nanotechnology proposes the construction of novel molecular devices possessing extraordinary properties

• The trick is to manipulate atoms individually and place them exactly where needed to produce the desired structure

Page 4: Nanotechnology Forecasting

Who is Zyvex?

• Zyvex was founded in April 1997– by Jim Von Ehr, in Richardson, Texas

• Zyvex is the first company founded to develop molecular nanotechnology

• Zyvex is a developmental engineering and directed research company

• With a 5-10 year time horizon for its first revenue, it is one of those rare startups that need not be focused on near-term profits

Page 5: Nanotechnology Forecasting

Strategic Management at Zyvex

• FORMULATE– Mission Statement: none published to public

• DEVELOP– Company Profile: Zyvex is the first molecular nanotechnology development company. They are creating technology for atomically precise manufacturing.

• ANALYZE– Company’s Options: Zyvex is a developmental engineering and directed research company currently funded at a level sufficient to do both its own research and sponsor directed research grants to universities doing research in complementary fields. They see a 5-10 year time horizon for their first revenue.

• INDENTIFY– Most Desirable: Zyvex’s goal is to build one of the key pieces of molecular nanotechnology; the assembler

Page 6: Nanotechnology Forecasting

Strategic Management at Zyvex

• IMPLEMENT - The Strategy•Business opportunities will follow the development of Molecular Nano- Technology (MNT), somewhat in line with how the capabilities are likely to develop

– Phase 1: Make precise structures one at a time– Phase 2: Make nanostructured materials in volume– Phase 3: Make complex objects in quantity– Phase 4: Make a nanocomputer– Phase 5: Make autonomous devices

(power source, programming)

Page 7: Nanotechnology Forecasting

Environmental Interactions DiagramPOLITICAL

ENVIRONMENTTECHNICAL

ENVIRONMENT

SOCIALENVIRONMENT

ECONOMICENVIRONMENT

ECOLOGICALENVIRONMENT

THE INSTITUTION

MANAGEMENT

TECHNICALRESOURCES AND

FACILITIES

COMPETITIVE

TH

E

INS

TIT

UT

ION

S

Page 8: Nanotechnology Forecasting

Technical Environment Forecasts

• Computing Technology– CPU’s Billions of Times Faster– Diamond Memory

• Molecular Machines for Medical Use– The Nanoglobin

• Oxygen Transport Vehicle• Self-Assembling Consumer

Goods– The Universal AssemblerForecasting Techniques Used:

Trend, Delphi (NGT),

Normative,Scenario1

1 Not an actual forecast technique according to Bright in Practical Technology Forecasting, 1998

Page 9: Nanotechnology Forecasting

Economic Environment Forecasts

ForecastingTechniques Used:

Trend, Delphi (NGT),

Normative,Scenario1

• Contemporary Labor • Concept of Money• Future Quake• Market Economy

1 Not an actual forecast technique according to Bright in Practical Technology Forecasting, 1998

Page 10: Nanotechnology Forecasting

Ecological Environment Forecasts

• Friendly Energy– Solar Cells Generator

• Goodbye Dumpsites– Chemical & Nuclear – New Green Manufacturing– Zero By-Products Waste

• Positive Impact Agriculture– High Performance Greenhouses

• The Vivisectionist Solution– Cellular Probe & Metabolic

Models

All of these tend to employ a variant of

the Delphi (NGT),Normative, and Scenario1

Forecasting Techniques

1 Not an actual forecast technique according to Bright in Practical Technology Forecasting, 1998

Page 11: Nanotechnology Forecasting

Political Environment Forecasts

•FY 2001 Budget Request– includes a $227 million increase for nanotechnology; should

increase dramatically over the next 20 years

•National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI)– Long-term fundamental nanoscience and engineering

research» Centers and networks of excellence» Research infrastructures» Ethical, legal, societal implications and

workforce education and training

•Indefinite Life Spans:

– How to deal with the possibility of overpopulation– Increased healthcare, welfare, and social security costs

•Arms Race & the Next World War

Page 12: Nanotechnology Forecasting

Social Environment Forecasts

• Changing Dynamics in the Workforce– Fewer jobs; especially in manufacturing/skilled labor

• Possible Elimination of the Need for Currency

• Computer-Human Interfaces:– could lead to vast imbalances of power in society

• Potential for Mass Annihilation By Out-of-control Nanobots

ForecastingTechniques Used:

Delphi (NGT), Scenario1

1 Not an actual forecast technique according to Bright in Practical Technology Forecasting, 1998

Page 13: Nanotechnology Forecasting

Summary

• Nanotechnology at Zyvex• Forecasting Environments• Forecasting Techniques Used

– Trend– Delphi– Normative– Scenario

Page 14: Nanotechnology Forecasting

See Ya in the “Future”!