nancy gershenfeld senior lecturer, the information school university of washington eat your spinach:...

Nancy GershenfeldSenior Lecturer, The Information

SchoolUniversity of Washington

Eat Your Spinach:Why Crunching Numbers Can Be Good for You

Workshop Outline

Life in business with statisticsHow businesses use statistics for

decision-makingProving your point: What numbers to

collect?Effective communication of statistics

5/14/20082Crunching Numbers / © Nancy Gershenfeld

My Life in the Business?

Learning from Accountants and Business Analysts (and smart managers)


Experience Hard WonInformation Broker (FIND/SVP now Guideline)

Analysis of online usageDemographic and consumer product research

Litigation Support (Betts Patterson & Mines Database Management Center) Benchmarking hardware and software

Corporate Library (Microsoft Information Services)MetricsBudget preparation and analysisBusiness planningJustifying everything


FIND/SVP: Get me more helpWeek One Week

TwoWeek Three

Week Four

QIS llll llll llll llll llll llll llll

Research llll llll

Doc Delivery

llll llll llll llll

Projects llll llll llll llll llll llll

Sales llll ll

Customer SVC

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Exec Office

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Admin llll ll5/14/2008

Crunching Numbers / © Nancy Gershenfeld5

Microsoft : Headcount Request

5/14/2008Crunching Numbers / © Nancy Gershenfeld6

Keys to SuccessSupport your proposal or justification with

numbersMake the presentation easy to understand

at a glanceUnderstand that what worked last year

may not work this yearBe confident in what you conclude from the

statistics (Numbers don’t lie…until the next section,

that is)


How Businesses Use Statistics

Decision-making based on the data


Statistical DataA collection of facts from which conclusions

may be drawn; "statistical data" (from http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=data )

Factual information (such as measurements and statistics) used as a basis for reasoning, discussion, or calculation (fromhttp://www.ic.gc.ca/epic/site/stco-levc.nsf/en/h_qw00037e.html )


Counting versus AnalyzingNot just a statistic or a numberA number says what isStatistical data provides basis for

assessment

Measurement and Analysis are meaningfulWhat you see in the numbersWhat decisions you make What actions you take


An Example: Ski Lift Usage Data

Big Sky Resorthttp://www.bigskyresort.com/Activities/Winter/Mountain-

Stats-and-Trail-Maps.asp


What Will You See?Allocation of timePercentage usage increasePercentage budget dollars savedTrending shift in user baseTraceable shift in USEMeasurable success of service or online toolCorrelation between online availability and

decreased email requestsJustification for request for additional funds,

people, sources, services


What Do The Partners Want?Increased productivity of staffIncreased billingsSuccessful outcomesNew ClientsReturn on Investment (ROI)

Lower costsLarger share of profitsBetter compensation for trained staff


General CommentsDecisions based on firm data direct the

course of actionBusinesses do not like to guess (though

they will make forecasts)Decisions made based on hard data are

easier to support (defend)Statistics can be used to prove just about

any pointSee How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff,

originally published in 1954.“Nearly half the doctors surveyed

recommended…”“We can lie with statistics, just as long as we all

tell the same lie.”


Marketing Decisions

Examples in consumer products


Example 1: Movie DVDs in HDTwo standards

HD DVDBlu-Ray

How many copies to produce in each format?

Look at the market dataInstalled base of each format of playerTrend data in sales for the past yearAny patterns in purchases by TYPE of movie

(e.g., action v. drama v. comedy)What happens now that Blu-Ray has won?


Warner Sides With Blu-ray DVDs, A Clinching Vote for Sony's Format

Brooks Barnes. New York Times. (Late Edition (East Coast)). New York, N.Y.: Jan 5, 2008. pg. C.1


Example 2: Retail StoresStarbucks plans to close about 100 U.S.

locations this year Which stores to close in which markets?Look at the store data

High-performing versus low-performing stores

Same-store salesUnder-performing markets (based on

previous forecasts)Any correlation of low-performing stores to

saturation of stores in the market?


Example 3: Bluetooth phonesIn Washington State, as of July 2008, drivers

who talk on a cell phone without a hands-free device could face a $101 ticket.

Potential run on phones that are Bluetooth headset-capable

Look at the sales data for WA stateAverage “life span” of mobile phone

ownershipPercentage of Bluetooth phones sold in that

average time periodTrends in headset sales


What to Collect and What to Do With It?

Statistics for library operations, planning and justification


What Decisions Do You Make?Services to provide

Scope of researchHours of coverage

Purchase of sourcesPrint or online?Scope of access

Renewal of subscriptions, online resourcesRenew or cancel?Renegotiate?

Online ToolsJustify investment in web-based tools?


How Do Your Make Decisions?Anecdotal evidenceGut reactionsBudget constraintsDirect requests (or mandates)

Make the statistics work for you


What Do You Want to Know?Who are you working for?

Evenly distributed?Reaching “primary” audience?Nature of requests (quick information, extended

research, business development)

What do you need to do to serve your users?Ongoing requests for different accessOpportunity to disseminate information about your

industry or client’s industry / businessOpportunity to automate certain functionsGoal to shift from “support” to “strategic”


Statistical Data to CollectUsage of online sources

Number of unique usersNumber of concurrent usersCorresponding drop in email requests (is there any?)Increase in requests for training?

Research requestsClassify by type, nature, time-frame, customer, clientAverage time per requestAverage time per type of request


Collecting Statistical DataTime considerationsLook for low-hanging fruit (statistics

automatically collected)Don’t overlook the low-tech method (hash

marks on a piece of paper)Incentives for staff to collect manual dataData mining of online logsTarget meaningful measurement


Reporting

Statistics Can Make Your Case


Examples of Usage Data

Incremental or huge growth in usageIncreasing demand month over month,

year over yearPercentage of work done for billable clients Dollar value of successful business

development


Objective: Demonstrate Value

Show that billable time continues to growDemonstrate increased value to business

developmentReveal operational activity continues to

drop (and be prepared to explain WHY).


Report in NarrativeThe Library statistics show we billed 50% of

our time to clients in 2004, 55% in 2005, 63% in 2006 and 67% in 2007.

In 2004, 15% of the time was utilized by Business Development, rising to 19% in 2005, 24% in 2006 and falling slightly to 20% in 2007 after a reduced need for new clientele.

Time devoted to Operations continues to fall, taking up 35% of library staff time in 2004, dropping to 26% in 2005, and down to 13% in 2006 and 2007 after outsourcing tasks.


Report using Textual Chart

2004 2005 2006 2007

% Billable 50 55 63 67

% Bus Dev 15 19 24 20

% Operations

35 26 13 13


Increase in billable hours linked directly to outsourcing of operational tasks

Successful 2006 for new client development reduced effort in 2007

Report via Graphics:% Distribution by Type


Report via Graphics:% Distribution by Year


A Different Graphic:% Distribution by Year


Objective: Request More Staff

Prove that staff are overworked Show increased time per projectLink to successful cases


Average Weekly Hours: The Data

2004 2005 2006 2007

Avg Hr / Week

50 55 58 62

Avg OT Hr / Week

10 15 18 22

% of Week OT

25 37.5 45 55


Charting the Growth


Driving the Point Home


Staff averaging 22 hours or 55% of total work week in OT

Time Per Project: The Data

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2005 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.4

2006 4.5 4.7 5.5 5.6

2007 7.0 7.2 7.7 9.0


Time Per Project: The Picture


Time Per Project: Flip the Picture


Successful Cases: The Link


Excel is Your FriendExcel can do the math for you (use

formulas)Make the numbers stand outChart wizardsCharting makes it easy to grasp the point in

a glanceDon’t repulse anyone with ugly chartsAdd commentary to reinforce your points


Sophisticated Visual Display


Information Dashboard Design The Effective Visual Communication of Data By Stephen FewFirst Edition January 2006 Pages: 223 ISBN 10: 0-596-10016-7 | ISBN 13: 9780596100162

http://www.oreilly.com/catalog/9780596100162/

Questions?

[email protected]


nancy gershenfeld senior lecturer, the information school university of washington eat your spinach:...

Documents

data http

statistical data

data factual information

statistics decisionmaking

business analysts

online availability

online tool correlation

trending shift