RESULTS AND SIGNIFICANCE

OF THE STUDY

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION: Myo Naing, Phone: 076 056 0544, email: myo9996@gmail.com

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMSFOR MUNICIPAL SERVICE DELIVERY PROCESSES

Early Warning System:

A detection process that

alerts key players and

stakeholders of

developing problematic

trends that can be

obviated by taking

corrective and

preventative

interventions.

INTRODUCTION

Environmental trends

Internaltrends

Performancetrends

Issues

Impact?

Drop from issues

list

Signal strength?

minor

major

weak

Urgency?Urgency?

strong

Start a gradual commitment project

Start a priority project

urgent

delayable

postponable

urgentdelayable

postponable

Source: Ansoff, 1984: 366.

0

50%

Total KZN Limpopo Mpumalanga North-west

14%11% 8%

38%

27%

38%39.5%

25%

satisfied with services

(in 2006)

satisfied with services

(in 2010)

Figure 2: Popular assessment of municipal service delivery in 2006 and 2010

Source: Qwabe et al (2011: 17)

5%

P& The Graduate School of Public

and Development Management

DM

Figure 4: Weak Signals Strategic Issue Management decision

42%

41%

32%

31%

50% of municipalities

Source: Sereto (2010: 6)

Figure 1: Audit of performance information results for 2007-08 (the

same for 2010-11)

Figure 5: The sub-periods of time available between early warning and full impact of problem

Potential problems

REFERENCES

Source: Adapted from Nikander & Eloranta, 2001: 389.

Figure 3: Weak Signals Strategic Issue Management decision

Moment of observation Time

Flow of municipal service delivery processes

Observer

An environment of municipal service delivery processes

Decision-makers

Responses

Decision making

Communication

Early warning

The “four roots of service delivery problems”, i.e.,

resources misallocation, expenditure leakages,

weak incentive, demand-side failure (Devarajan &

Reinikka, 2004) is used as a theoretical framework.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

METHODOLOGY

“Any change taking place is

preceded by some form of

‘Warning’, which the analyst

has the role of capturing and

making good use of” (Ansoff,

1979).

is to develop and propose

a M&E system that is

incorporated with Early

Warning System (EWS) so

that it will enable

municipalities to receive

advance information

about potential problems,

and then to implement

the necessary corrective

interventions.

“Local government is the

foundation of democracy,

if it fails, democracy will

fail” (Robert W. Flack,

cited in Idasa, 2010: 1).

“Since 1994, in order to improve municipal

service delivery performances, a series of

massive initiatives, policies and programmes

has been embarked on.

Source: Nikander,

2002: 86.

The rest of time for the implementation of response

Mobilisation time of implementation

Planning and negotiation time

Decision time

Time availableEarly warning

Full impact of problem

Missed deadlines

Missed targets

Overran costs

Plan deviations

Late or even no-submission of report

Non-compliance with regulations and rules

No consequence for non-compliance

Disjuncture between the municipality and municipal

entities

Low stakeholders involvement

Incomplete knowledge of process status

Poor coordination among departments

Poor communication among management and

employees

…

EWS SAMPLES

MYO NAING, The Graduate School of Public and Development Management

“Strategic surprises give advance

information of themselves; there are

signals or symptoms of surprises to

come. Even on the basis of the initially

inexact information some actions can be

taken” (Nikander, 2002: 24).

They were slain that had warning, not they that took it. (Adapted from a French proverb.)

DEFINITION:

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

Ansoff, I. H. (1975) Managing Strategic Surprise

by Response to Weak Signals. In California

management Review, Vol. XVII, No. 2.

Ansoff, I. H. (1979) Strategic Management.

London: Macmillan.

Ansoff, I. H. (1984) Implementing Strategic

Management. New York: Prentice/Hall.

Carrim, Y. (2011) Merit in Carrim’s Call. In The

New Age, 21 Sep 2011. p. 16.

CoGTA (Cooperative Governance and Traditional

Affairs) (2009) State of Local Government in

South Africa: Overview Report on National

State of Local Government Assessments.

(COGTA Working Document).

Devarajan, S. & Reinikka, R. (2004) Making

Service Work for Poor People. In Journal of

African Economies, Vol. 13(1), p. 1142-1166.

Engela, R. & Ajam, T. (2010) Implementing a

Government-wide M&E System in South

Africa. Washington, DC: The World Bank.

Idasa (Institute for Democracy in Africa) (2010)

Local Government Barometer (2010 May).

Pretoria: Idasa

Nikander, I. O. (2002) Early Warnings: A

Phenomenon in Project Management. Espoo

(Finland): Helsinki University of Technology

Nikander, I. O. & Eloranta, E. (2001) Project

management by early warnings. In

International Journal of Project Management

Vol. 19, Issue 7, October 2001, p. 385–399.

Oberholzer, C. (2012) The “Ideal Municipality” is

not yet beyond Reach.

Qwabe, B., Wenhold, M., Mdaka, P., Totwe, S.,

April, M., Kibirige, F., Dambudzo, J., & Nzo,

T. (2011) The State of Local Governance in

South Africa from a Citizen Perspective. Cape

Town: ABC Press.

SALGA (The South African Local Government

Association ) (2010) Key issues in local

economic development in South Africa and a

potential role for SALGA. Pretoria: SALGA.

Sejeng, T. (2013) Municipal Performance M&E. A

presentation presented on 10 April 2013 at the

IMFO indaba: Key to sustainable service

delivery.

Serote, P. (2010) Results of audits of

performance information. A presentation at

the Ad Hoc Committee on Service Delivery, on

2 February 2010.

The Presidency (Republic of South Africa) (2011)

Department of Performance Monitoring and

Evaluation: Strategic plan (2011/12 – 2015/

16). Pretoria: The Presidency.

This research is still in process. This study extends the

area of applicability of Ansoff’s theory to municipal

service delivery process.

It is expected that the theoretical contribution of this

research will be a modification of Ansoff’s Weak Signal

Theory to be applicable in public sector management.

Moreover, and most importantly, integrating an EWS

system into public sector M&E system will pave an

innovative way of applying EWS and ‘Weak Signals

theory’, which are generally used in disaster

management and strategic management, in public

sector management.

As an operational contribution, its outcome, a model of

M&E system that is integrated with EWS, will enable

municipalities as well as national and provincial

governments to get a better sense of the planning,

implementing, communicating, overseeing and

monitoring of the municipal service delivery process.

This research is an empirical study to examine the

ways the current M&E systems of municipalities

address their service delivery problems, find and

understand the causes of problems, and detect

possible early warnings.

It uses a qualitative approach and a case-study

methodology. Data are collected through non-

participant naturalistic observation, semi-structured

in-depth interviews and documentary study. The

observations will be grouped according to similar

characteristics, then the various factors will be

analysed qualitatively, as well as according to per

cent distributions.

Currently local

government is in distress

and a comprehensive

turnaround and more

creative responses are

needed (CoGTA, 2009;

SALGA, 2010).

Inadequate content of Integrated Development Plan (IDP)

Performance information was not received in time for audit purposes

Lack of internal auditing of performance information

No reporting of performance information

Continue to monitor

Include in next planning cycle

17%

“Someone is always aware of impending or ‘hidden’

problems, nobody just wants to bring them out.

Nobody seems to want to let the cat out of the bag”

(An answer from one interviewee, Nikander, 2002:

112).

Currently, 19.3% of households do not have

adequate access to water, while 36.2% do not

have adequate sanitation services, 27.3% have

no adequate electricity and 40.1% no adequate

refuse removal (Oberholzer, 2012: 1).

The current municipal monitoring and

evaluation (M&E) system is by legislation

compelled to serve as an early warning system

(EWS).

However, it does not have components of an

EWS and, as a result, cannot alert key players

and stakeholders of developing problematic

trends in municipal service delivery processes

(Sejeng, 2013: 5; Engela & Ajam, 2010: 8).

Municipalities are, however, still incapable of

fulfilling their constitutional Mandate (Carrim,

2011: 16). Effective and efficient service

delivery from most municipalities remains

elusive and does not meet the legitimate

expectations of their citizens (The Presidency,

2011: 7). (Figure 1 & 2)

The development of an M&E system that is

incorporated with EWS is based on performance

measurement principles and on previous researches

on early warnings and early signals, especially on

Ansoff’s seminal works on “weak signals” (1975;

1979). (Figure 3, 4 & 5)

55%

Time factorTime available

Processing