naea 12-12 (2)
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TRANSCRIPT
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
Return on Investment
Pending Home Sales
NAR 11/2012
October 2011 – October 2012
October 2010 – October 2011
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
NAR 11/2012
Single Family Sales (year-over-year)
NAR 11/2012
Condo & Co-op Sales (year-over-year)
NAR 11/2012
$1M+ Home Sales (year-over-year)
NAR 11/2012
New Home Sales
Calculated Risk 12/1/2012
New Construction
Calculated Risk 12/1/2012
Household FormationsAverage Annual Formations in Thousands
Census Bureau 11/2012
Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed
1/01/2011 Today
Federal Reserve
30 Year Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac
Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale
NAR 11/2012
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 11/2012
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
S&P Case Shiller 11/2012
Single Family Prices (year-over-year)
NAR 11/2012
Condo & Co-op Prices (year-over-year)
NAR 11/2012
FHFA 3Q HPI Report
FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year)
FHFA 11/2012
FHFA State Home Prices (year-over-year)
Impact of Foreclosures on Prices
Clear Capital 11/8/2012
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
24%
NAR 10/2012
Home Prices in the Short Term
Calculated Risk 12/1/2012
“The monthly Case-Shiller house price indexes will show month-to-month declines soon, probably starting with the October report to be released in late December. The CoreLogic Index has already started to decline on a month-to-month basis. This is not a sign of impending doom or another collapse in house prices - it is just the normal seasonal pattern.”
Home Prices in the Short Term
“We project a small, short-term price decline for many markets that recently experienced double-digit appreciation.”
David Stiff, Chief Economist of Fiserv
Fiserv 11/28/2012
PROJECTED
Home Prices in the Short Term
S&P Case Shiller 11/2012
Cost vs. Price
“Like a neighborhood cop on the beat, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) supervises banks, credit unions, and other financial companies, and we will enforce Federal consumer financial laws.”
‘CFPB’
CFPB Website
The ‘Perfect Storm’ of Regulation
US News & World Report 11/7/2012
The Qualified Mortgage (QM) rule - part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act - gives a borrower the right to sue if they received a loan that courts deemed the borrower did not have the ability to repay.
The Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) requires lenders to keep a 5 percent capital cushion on certain loans they make so that if a loan goes belly up, a lender has some skin in the game, too.
Basel III will mandate how much capital banks have to keep on hand for all their mortgage-related business.
All the uncertainty surrounding the ultimate form these important regulations will take has kept banks hesitant to lend.
FHA Mortgages
CNBC11/16/2012
“There are concerns that impending new rules in the mortgage market, dictated by Dodd-Frank financial reform, will make the overall loan market more expensive and drive more borrowers to the FHA.”
Diana Olick
“The FHA is now facing billions of dollars of losses on loans originated between 2007 and 2009. To help bolster its finances, the agency recently announced a series of measures including higher annual insurance premiums and a change to rules that allowed insurance premiums to lapse. Typical borrowers have to pay an up-front insurance premium of 1.75% of the loan amount and, starting in 2013, a higher annual premium of 1.35% of the balance, up from 1.25%, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com.”
Wall Street Journal 11/24/2012
FHA Mortgages
Impact of New Regulations
American Forum 10/2012
“We find using conservative economic assumptions that the bottom line effects of proposed Dodd-Frank and Basel III regulations may include up to 20 percent fewer loans, resulting in
600,000 fewer home sales.”
QualifiedResidentialMortgage.org 11/2012
“Borrowers who fail to meet the basic criteria for a qualified residential mortgage will have a harder time finding a loan, when compared to borrowers who do meet those criteria. They might end up paying a higher interest rate, as well…Financial analysts from J.P. Morgan Securities have estimated that borrowers might pay up to three percentage points more for loans that are subject to risk-retention.*”
*loans that don’t meet the definition of a qualified residential mortgage
Impact of New Regulations
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
3,4,5,6Pending Home Sales, Single Family Sales, Condo & Co-op Sales, $1M+ Home Sales
http://www.realtor.org
8,9 New Home Sales, New Construction www.calculatedriskblog.com
10 Older Households More Likely to OwnPAID SUBSCRIPTION - http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/article.asp?cid=235444
11 Household Formations http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204707104578095223920995426.html
12 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
14 Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org
15 S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices Indiceshttp://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldocumentfile&blobtable=SPComSecureDocument&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3Ddownload.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=content-type&blobwhere=1245342717782&blobheadervalue3=abinary%3B+charset%3DUTF-8&blobnocache=true
17 Single Family Prices www.realtor.org
18 Condo & Co-Op Prices www.realtor.org
20 FHFA State Home Prices http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/24216/q22012hpi.pdf
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
21 Impact on Foreclosures on Prices http://www.clearcapital.com/company/MarketReport.cfm?month=November&year=2012
22 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org
23 Home Prices in the Short Term www.calculatedriskblog.com
24 Home Prices in the Short Term http://investors.fiserv.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=723656
25 Home Prices in the Short Termhttp://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
27 CFPB http://www.consumerfinance.gov
28 The ‘Perfect Storm’ of Regulationhttp://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/home-front/2012/11/07/5-housing-issues-hanging-in-the-balance-going-into-obamas-2nd-term
29 FHA Mortgages http://www.cnbc.com/id/49856477/To_Stem_Losses_FHA_Mortgages_Get_More_Expensive
30 FHA Mortgages http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323353204578128810214676692.html
31 Impact of New Regulations http://americanactionforum.org/sites/default/files/Regulation_and_Housing.pdf
32 Impact of New Regulations http://www.qualifiedresidentialmortgage.org/criteria.php
You get to decide.