“myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14 th asia cementrade summit, rangon,...
TRANSCRIPT
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LOCAL CONCERNS GLOBAL APPROACHES
By Adam McCarty ([email protected])
“Myanmar economic prospects and risks”
presentation at 14th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)
www.mekongeconomics.com
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Contents
1. Perspective: development path (Gapminder) – slower but not stagnant; need to reindustrialise.
2. Key data
3. Macroeconomics and trade
4. Themes to understand
5. SWOT and Business Opportunities
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Poorest in ASEAN
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GDP: Roll a dice
Country Data source 2007/2008 2008/2009
2000 to
2008 GDI/GDP ICOR
Myanmar Official 11.9 10.7 12.6 12.4 1.0
ESCAP 5.5 2.0
IMF 5.5 4.5 4.6
ADB 5.5 3.6 6.0
(2012)
The Economist 3.4 0.9
China 11.4 10.0 9.3 39.3 4.2
Vietnam 8.5 7.0 7.1 34.1 4.8
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Other indicative and key data
• Electricity sales grew 4.5% p.a. 2002-2009• Cement sales grew 1.8% p.a. 2004-2009• Poverty 26% (IHLCS 2010)• 26% of households have grid electricity• Adult literacy 92% (?)• Infant mortality rate 50/1,000• Life expectancy 62 years• 13 million (of 60 million) aged 15-28 years
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Macroeconomic management a concern
IMF: Kyat 30-40% over-valued (expect depreciation)Exchange rate unified March 2012
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Deficits widen and few export items
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68% of exports
are gas, logs,
and legumes.
Clothing
and footwear
are only 8%
of exports.
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Themes to understand
Public Investment: small total; central projects; locals rely on own-funds (WB PEFA). Tax revenue 3% of GDP.
Administrative capacities/systems (FDI in manufacturing, hotels and tourism totalled $53.6m during 2005-2010)
Tertiary education: generational variance
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Logistics performance and infrastructure: Marginally worst in ASEAN
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Business Opportunities
• SHORT TERM:– Tourism– Extractives: oil, gas, mining– Licences (e.g. telecoms)
• LONG TERM:– 2015 elections are market entry trigger.
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LOCAL CONCERNS GLOBAL APPROACHES
By Adam McCarty ([email protected]),
www.mekongeconomics.com
QUESTIONS?
“Myanmar economic prospects and risks”
presentation at 14th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)