Proposed PhD Research Project

1. Project Title:

Quantification of Non-Linear Dynamics in Indoor and Outdoor Radon Concentration Levels

in Seismically Activated Areas.

2. State of the art:

Whenever an area on our planet is seismically activated either by a volcanic eruption or by

an earthquake, as an immediate result, pores and cracks are formed on the surface of the

earth surrounding the affected area. Since vast Uranium deposits lie deep beneath the earth

surface, so the radiations (decay products of Uranium chain) starts to exhale out of the

pores and cracks. Among those are the two of the noble gases; Radon (Rn-222) and Thoron

(Th-220), they are a good source of information about the impact of seismic activity on the

beneath uranium deposit strengths. Interesting thing is that, there is a notable change in the

values of radon/thoron after the earthquake has occurred. By taking out help from this

unique property, a research study can be planned.

3. Project rationale:

This research project has practical implications in many ways;

i. If the empirical relationship between the radon concentrations and corresponding

reported earthquakes is developed, then, to a limited extent, an earthquake could be

predicted.

ii. If the empirical relationship is developed between the associated meteorological

parameters and the radon values, the radon values pattern can be predicted for a

whole day (12-hours) and a whole night (12-hours).

4. Project description:

In this project, we will measure the radon (Rn-222) concentrations both in indoor as well

as in outdoor environments in the area that is seismically active and will quantify the Non-

Linear Dynamics (i.e. Chaos) of the concentrations. The non-linear behavior in the

measured values of the indoor and outdoor radon will be analyzed by using several

computational techniques such as Sample Entropy, Lyapunov Exponent, Shannon Entropy,

Hurst Exponent etc. Along with the measurements of radon concentrations, the associated

meteorological parameters (air temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity etc.)

will also be monitored. The correlation between different metrological parameters and

radon concentrations will be developed by using statistical techniques like Pearson’s

Correlation, One-way/Two-way ANalysis Of VAriance (ANOVA).

An empirical relation will be developed between the measured indoor/outdoor Rn-222

concentrations and associated meteorological parameters. Proceeding further on the same

lines, by collecting the seismic data of earthquakes reported in the project area three months

before and after the project running time, we could developed a relationship linking the

variations in radon values with the prediction of earthquakes in the area.

5. Working program:

In order to develop a core relation between the radon anomalies and the probability of

happening of an earthquake in the region, we will need a large number of radon

concentration measurement values (i.e. data points). It will be in accordance with the

compliance of our project that radon concentrations would have to be measured for a

maximum of one-year period. It will approximately take 3-4 months in developing the

computational techniques in the form of either Fortran or C++ codes and analyzing the

radon values by both computational techniques and statistical methods.

6. References:

Shannon, Claude E. (July–October 1948). "A Mathematical Theory of Communication". Bell

System Technical Journal 27 (3): 379–423. doi:10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x

Hurst, H.E. (1951). "Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs". Transactions of American

Society of Civil Engineers 116: 770.

Hurst, H.E.; Black, R.P.; Simaika, Y.M. (1965). Long-term storage: an experimental study.

London: Constable.

Mandelbrot, B.B.; Wallis, J.R. (1968). "Noah, Joseph, and operational hydrology". Water

Resour. Res. 4: 909–918.

Mandelbrot, Benoît B. "The (Mis)Behavior of Markets": 187.

Benettin, G.; Galgani, L.; Giorgilli, A.; Strelcyn, J. M. (1980). "Lyapunov Characteristic

Exponents for smooth dynamical systems and for hamiltonian systems; A method for

computing all of them. Part 2: Numerical application". Meccanica 15:

21.doi:10.1007/BF02128237

Karl Pearson (20 June 1895) "Notes on regression and inheritance in the case of two

parents," Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, 58 : 240–242.

The Correlation Between Relatives on the Supposition of Mendelian Inheritance. Ronald A.

Fisher. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. 1918. (volume 52, pages

399–433)

On the "Probable Error" of a Coefficient of Correlation Deduced from a Small Sample. Ronald

A. Fisher. Metron, 1: 3-32 (1921)