mustafa ergen - ip conference - 2017 · mustafa ergen ip2016 - istanbul ... , sdr, spectrum sensing...

2015 M.Ergen

MustafaErgen

KoçUniversity

5G:Telecommunication, Intellectual Property, Entrepreneurship and Academia

2015 M.Ergen

5G... Telecommunication, Intellectual Property, Entrepreneurship and Academia Mustafa Ergen IP2016 - Istanbul @mstfrgn

3 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

Benchmark – Turkey and many others...

•  s/llfragmentthelocalmarketwithlocalholdings...

IndustrialRevolu/on

• notsuccessfultobuildmul/-na/onalfirms.

Informa/onEconomy •  candocatchup

withentrepreneurialeconomy.

EntrepreneurialEconomy

GlobalfirmsareflaEeningtheworldalmostwithoutanylocalbarriers.

Ifnotsuccessfultobuildaglobalmonopole,localfirmswillbesoldout.Convergetoall-employeena6on.

Before1980

ANer1980

ANer2000


Today, dynamics...

1 2 3

Entrepreneurship&VentureCapitalmindset.

TechnologyandR&Dtogofullpowerandfocus.

Leverageoflocalmarketandresourcestodebut.


Technology Entrepreneurship

1 2 3

Entrepreneurship&VentureCapitalmindset...

6 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital Source:SteveBlank

VacuumTubes

TestEquipment

MicrowavesIntegratedCircuits

PersonalComputers

Internet

1910 1956 1995GoldRush RadioEra SiliconEra Internet

Era

HP...

Intel,...Raytheon,Lockheed...

Apple,MicrosoN,Oracle,Cisco,...

Google,Facebook,Amazon,Uber,....

Technology Entrepreneurship = Silicon Valley History

DeForestCompany

LinearGrowth

Exponen/alGrowth


Twouniversi/es–Onehourdrive

Istanbul:Morethan70Universi/es:lessthan

hourdrive

Synergywithacademia


First Techno Park – Stanford Research Institute

1946 –

VarianAssociates

HewleE-Packard

EastmanKodak

GeneralElectric

LockheedCorpora/on NASA

SylvaniaDefense Raychem IBM,etc..

Sputnik1

Source:GirişimciKapital

VacuumTubes>TestEquipments>Microwaves>IntegratedCircuits>PersonalComputer>Internet>...

Market:Hollywood>SecondWorldWar>ColdWar>ConsumerElectronics>Worldwide

Synergybyco-loca/on

InventorLeeDeForest:SteveJobsofthat/me

•  InspiredhisstudentstostartcompaniessuchasHPandothers.•  HeadofHarvardRadioLabinWW2thatinnovatedtobeatNazis.•  DeanofStanfordwhenestablishedthetechnopark.


1853 – Gold Rush

•  BoughtfromMexicans.

•  300thousandpeoplecametodiggold.

•  ResultedauniqueemploymentlawforCalifornia.

Introduc/onof•  At-Will,•  NDA•  NCA

Synergywithdiversityandemploymentlaw.Source:GirişimciKapital

1872 Law


Gold rush is still on...

$2B:NPVoftotalgolddug.

$40B:AnnualrevenueofIntel.

$60B:2010revenueofApple–TheyintroducediPhone3.

GoldRushEra

IntegratedCircuitEra

PersonalComputerEra

Synergybyempoweringordinarypeople:SecondRenaissance


1879 – 1982 AT&T Monopole

SiliconValleyPersonalComputer Opera/ngSystem OpenSource Broadband

AT&TboughtVacuumTubepatentsfromDeForestfor$50K.

Fiber Cellphone

1996BellLabs->Lucent2006Lucent->Alcatel-Lucent2015Alcatel-Lucent->Nokia

Synergyfrommonopolepower



Monopole Economy seen from Draper Cycle

WarrenBuffet,M&A,WallStreet,InvestmentBanking,Funds,etc.

•  HighMargin•  Art•  $1Btostart.

•  LowMargin•  CraUsmanship•  $1Bislowto

start.

Mergers

LeverageBuy-outs

Acquisi/ons

Recession Recession Recession

VS:VentureCapitalPE:PrivateEquity

Synergywithfinancialindustry



5G Opportunity

1 2 3

Technologytogofullpoweranddebut...


Mobile cellular generations

Voice,Analog,NoRoaming

Voice:Roaming,Global,Dijital,StartofData

Voice+DATA:PerfectRoaming,GlobalRadio,HighSpeed

DATA:AllIPNetwork,Convergence

DATA:TrueGlobal

Harmoniza/onInternetWiFi

0km

/hr

500km

/hr

0.1Mbps 1000Mbps

LowCostDSPandFEC

CDMAReuse1andTurboCoding

MIMO,OFDMA,SDR,SpectrumSensing

Source:MobileBroadband


Data tsunami when?

Year Speed Popula6on Device Usage RequiredCapacity2012 0.3Mbps 4984/km2 1.2 15% 0.26Gbps/km22016 2.9Mbps 5191/km2 1.4 20% 4.2Gbps/km22020 30Mbps 5477/km2 1.7 25% 69.8Gbps/km2

317MHz

5000MHzRequiredspectrum

LTE–Advanced500mradius–London

16X16X

16X

4Year4Year


Change in technology and business...

1G 2G 3G 4G

5G

TDMA WCDMA OFDMAFDMA

Mobile operators has to redefinethemselves:•  eithercost-cupng,•  orinnova/on&newmarkets,•  otherwiseconsolida/on.


League of legends in telecom

India KoreaTaiwan

ChinaJapan

USAEU

By2020,theydecidedtomakecommunica/onequipmentinhouse.

Korea,star/ngfrom1980,theyhaveinvestedshortcycle6metechnologieswithgovernmentgameplan.

Chinausestheirlocalmarketadvantageandusethispowertograsprightsinstandardiza/onac/vi/es.

TheywantopenmarketanddicatatebyWTO.USispushingmonopolecompanieswithitspowerfulventurecapital.

Koreahasglobalbrands.Taiwanhasmonopolecompanies.

Noglobalbrands.

SuccessofKoreaistermedasSchumpeterianCatchUp.


5G – Virtual layers of new communication infrastructure

Optical Core NetworkOptical Metro Network

Core Cloud

Infrastructure Layer

Optical Access Network

Satellite Network

RAN and wireless backhaul

Edge Cloud

Network Function Layer

Multi-service Control Layer

Business Function Layer

Edge Cloud

Business Service Layer

Network Function

Repository

Vertical #1 Services(e.g., Factory of the Future)

Mobile broadband Services Vertical #2 Services (e.g,, Automotive)

Service #1

Service #2

Service #3

Service #1

Service #2

Service #3

Service #1

Service #2

Service #3

Net

wor

k-ce

ntric

ser

vice

sVe

rtic

al-c

entr

ic s

ervi

ces

Northbo

undInterfaces

Southb

ound

Interfaces

Vertical #1 Function

Repository


Repository


Repository

OpticalWireless SatelliteAbstract resources:

MobilAccess DigitalFactory SmartCars

Opera6ngSystem

SoUware

Hardware

Source:5G-PPP


Venture Capital investment in telecommunication – Reduced...

Investments

Ra/o

Source:PWC

Opportunityforindigenousscenarios...


Turkish government intervention for mobile ecosystem: 4.5G and 5G...

Local4GBaseSta/onProject:ULAK•  fundedover$70Mbygovernment.

•  Target4.5G:LTE-AdvancedTechnology

4GSpectrumAuc/on•  DictatedonlyLTE-AdvancedTechnology

•  Upto40%mandatetooperatorsforlocalprocurement.

5GVision•  Targetofpublicandprivatesector.

•  Setbygovernment.

•  R&DResourcesarebeingharmonized...

2013 2015


4.5G entrepreneurial ecosystem & 5G Intellectual Property

1 2 3

Leverageoflocalmarketandresources

Localmarket,localtalent,localIP,localregula/onstocreatesynergy.

22 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital Source:NetWorld2020

5G-PPP of Europe – more than 1000 members: Research

5G-PPPisaEuropeanorganiza/onto

establishstrategyandcoordina/ontoleadEUin5G.Turkeyisselectedtobeinthefoundingboard(M.Ergen)viaTurk

Telekom.Fundingtotalis3.5BEuro.


5G in the world... ITU-RVisionsGroup

5G-PPP

ETSI3GPP

5GLabGermanyatTUDresden

5GInnova/onCentre(5GIC)atUniversityofSurrey

US4GAmericas

ChinaIMT-2020(5G)Promo/onAssocia/on

Japan5GPromo/onForum

Korea5GForum

TaiwanMinistryofScienceandTechnology,MinistryofEconomicAffairs

Russia5GRUSbyRussia’sIcom-Invest

5G-PPP

5GUSA

5GJAPAN

5GKOREA

5GCHINA

5GTR

2016:5G-TRfounded.


Importance of patenting and Essential IPR

$400AndroidPhone

$120IntellectualProperty

$504GPatents

$50WiFiPatents

$120Produc/onCost

Source:Intel


4G patent map...

Ericsson,Nokia,HuaweiandCiscoaretopinEssen/alIPRlist.• Ericsson37Kpatents|Huawei36.5Kpatents

Huaweiforinstanceinlastthreeyears,won14Kpatents.

• Huaweiclaimstheyhold20%of4Gpatents.

Qualcommasks3.25%royaltyfromthesaleprice.

Nokiaasks1.5%.

Ericssonasks1.5%.

Huaweiasks1.5%.

ZTEasks1%.

Motorolaasks2.25%.

•  Ericsson•  ETRI•  Freescale•  Huawei•  Innova/ve

Sonic•  InterDigital•  LG•  Motorola•  NEC•  Nokia•  Nortel•  NSN•  Qualcomm•  RIM•  Samsung•  Sharp•  TI•  ZTE

Qualcommearnsaround$8Bper

yearfromlicensing...

Source:Webandverbal

FRAND

Thesearesubjec/ve

numberscanchangeforeach

customer.

Fair,reasonable,non-discriminatorycommitment


4G standard applications – Essential IPR acceptance ratio

Accepted

Rejected

NotRelated

9%Acceptance

Rate

Source:SignalsRLLC

3GPP


National Target

%0.1

• $25B

%0.5

• $125B

%1

• $250B

•  Assump/ons:•  In2020,therewillbe70Bequipmentaround$500perdeviceand%7essen/alIPR•  Ifweassume100Bdevicearound$100thennumbersare$7B,$35Band$70B.•  Ra/osaredistribu/onof%7.•  Total20yearrevenue.Annuallyaround$1-10B•  Thereare200universi/esand300companiesandresearchcenters.Itwillbearound10patentsperins/tu/on.•  Normally,peopleareassuming7trilliondevicefor7billionpeople.

Ifwecangraspfollowingra/osfromourpatentsthatform5Gstandard.Ourrevenuewillbe...

20200patents

by2020


Dilemmas• Totalfundingfromgovernmentoveryearisthesameandnumberofuniversi/estocontentforthesameareincreasing.

• Digitaltechnologiesandonlinecoursesaredestroyingthemainofferings.

• Informa/onisfree.• Researchersareevalua/ngthatpublishingatwebpagehaswiderimpactthanChineseinvaded!3-reviewerjournalsystem.

• Journalmeansnothingifithasnotbeenrealizedinanapplica/onoracompany.Opportuni/esinresearchisprolifera/nghencesystemhavebeenforcingresearchertogofull-roundtoseeitsimpact.

• Demandforentrepreneurshipisincreasingfromundergrads–universityisnotaguaranteedemployeeopportunityanymore.

• Technologyischangingrapidlyandspeedofadapta/oninhumancapitalisslowerinuniversi/esthancompanies.

• Unfortunately,homesmoretoxicpeopleandnomechanismforde-toxica/on.Thispoisonsthesystem.

Universi/escansustainiftheycancreateaself-feedingaEachedeconomicalecosystem.Ac/onsindiscussion:

• Whiterobescien6sttoflipflopdentmakers...

• Nostartupnotenure!•  Ex:UofSouthernCalifornia,UofVirginia,etc.

•  FreeIPRlicensing•  Ex:Cornell,Stanford...

• Nophysicalgates–anyonejoinlectures• AllUSandEUUniversi/es

•  Entwinedwithsurroundingecosystem•  Ex:Purdue,UofKansas,UofGeorgia

• Payforwardculture•  Togetback

Entrepreneurial University


$

WalledGardentoOpenGarden


We need to synergize these earlier than others...

4Technologists,Investors,EntrepreneursandGovernment.

ThankYou!

[email protected]

mustafa ergen - ip conference - 2017 · mustafa ergen ip2016 - istanbul ... , sdr, spectrum sensing...

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