mumbai | friday 13 december 2019 swimming against the …...8 issues and insights mumbai | friday 13...

8 ISSUES AND INSIGHTS>

MUMBAI | FRIDAY 13 DECEMBER 2019

> CHINESE WHISPERS

How many listed companiesare there across the world?Approximately 41,000 at the

end of 2017. What is their market cap-italisation? About US$ 84 trillion, thesame as global GDP that year. Whereare these companies listed? Ten percent by number, and 36 per cent bymarket cap are listed in the US. Asiaaccounts for the largest number 57 percent, and 37 per cent of market cap.Exclude Japan, China, and otheradvanced Asian countries, the rest ofAsia is home to 23 per cent of the com-panies, but a paltry 5 per cent of theglobal market cap. How manyinvestors are there? The dataset refersto 77,456 unique investors. You canfind out all this and much-much morefrom OECD’s publication Owners ofthe worlds listed companies, releasedthis October.

Institutional investors hold 41 percent of the global market cap, withclose to half of it as part of a passivestrategy. The second highest owner-ship is by the state, at 14 per cent.Corporates, strategic investors andfamilies together own about 18 percent, with the residual being "free

float", defined as direct holdings ofretail investors and institutionalinvestors "that does not exceed therequired thresholds for public disclo-sures of their holdings". Sixty-five percent of these investors, in terms ofmarket cap are in the US, 11 per centin UK. That since US is the deepestmarket, foreign ownership in its mar-ket is low (15 per cent).

Note that the ownership percent-age given above is for the 10,000largest companies and not the uni-verse of 41,000 companies. These rep-resent 90 per cent of the global marketcap.

Should who own’s companies mat-ter? And what are its implications?Three according to this study. The firstis, with institutions being the domi-nant owners, and the rapid growth inpassive index-based investing, thequality of oversight investors exerciseover companies is set to change. Thetop-down approach suggests that irre-spective of the risk, funds may haveno choice but to own companies. Theweak oversight is also a consequenceof the low fees the passive funds earn.While this is true in the aggregatethere are exception. Larry Fink ofBlackRock cited the fact that many oftheir funds are passive, and conse-quently may end up holding sharesfor a very long time, as being the veryreason to build a team to focus on gov-ernance and engagement.

Though not covered by the study,the growth of institutional investorsand in this the category of passivefunds, has a few other consequences,two of which are worth highlighting.One the power shift from funds andfund managers to index providers whonow get to decide where the money

should flow. The second is the growthof "smart beta" as an investment strat-egy. (Smart beta is nothing but a setof investment strategies that empha-sise the use of alternative index con-struction rules to traditional marketcapitalisation-based indices.)

The second observation stemsfrom state ownership as the govern-ment is the second largest owner.Needless to add, here too there arenuggets. That 56 per cent of the publicsector is owned by central and localgovernments, followed by sovereignwealth funds, pension funds andstate-owned enterprises. Dig evendeeper, the Peoples Republic of China

accounts for "57 per cent of the totalpublic sector investments in globalequity markets", which is estimatedat $10 trillion. (Surprisingly state own-ership in Norway is also high atbetween 34-46 per cent.) More than 8per cent of the listed companies havegovernment ownership that exceeds50 per cent. On this basis of this, thereport concludes that given large gov-ernment ownership “political priori-ties, directly or indirectly will influ-ence corporate decisions”. somethingthat will resonate with those investingin the Indian market.

One of the other findings is thatconcentrated ownership is not

uncommon. In half the world’s corpo-rations, the top three shareholdersown more than 50 per cent of the equi-ty. While it is usually families or strate-gic investors, in US and UK it is insti-tutional investors. The 10 largestinstitutional investors own 43 per centof the equity and in UK, 29 per cent.

The third conclusion focuses onthe implication of the concentratedownership by institutions. The plus isthat it in a sense does away with theagency problem that afflicts widelyheld companies. The negative is thatthe larger asset owners might abusethe rights of other smaller asset own-ers – although no evidence is providedto support this contention.

The OECD team is working on theownership structure in India and hassome preliminary findings, but usingdata in public domain, we find thatinstitutional ownership, by December2018, had increased 37.5 per cent (fromapproximately 22 per cent in early2009). This was due to the surge ininflows to the domestic mutual funds,the maturing of the insurance sectorand the take-off of the national pen-sion scheme. While close to the globalnumber of 41 per cent, this is balancedby the promoters/controlling share-holders holding about 50 per cent intheir companies. And while the rela-tionship between asset managers andbusiness owners is evolving to takeinto account institutional ownershipshowing clear signs of higher levels ofengagement, regulations and marketbehaviour is still largely based on thepresence of a "controlling sharehold-er". This is what needs to change.

The author is with Institutional InvestorAdvisory Services. Twitter: AmitTandon_in

Who owns listed companies?Institutional investors hold 41 per cent of the global market cap, with close to half of it as part of a passive strategy

Inspired by Amma Canteens?Film actorRajinikanth(pictured), quitelike former TamilNadu chiefminister M GRamachandran,has played the roleof a poor,hardworking manin many movies.

The title of one of his movies, Uzhaippali(hard worker), has inspired Chennai-based Siddha medicine practitionerVeerababu to start a low-priced foodoutlet in the city. The Rajinikanth fanchose the south star’s 69th birthday onThursday to open his first UzhaippaliCanteen, which will serve “herbal”lunch to daily wage earners and otherpoor workers for ~10. There are plans toopen more such canteens, he said.

Azad's political partyAfter lying low for a while, Bhim Armyfounder Chandrashekhar Azad, who hasnow dropped his alias of Ravan, hasannounced his foray into active politicsto “strengthen” the Bahujanmovement. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)supremo Mayawati had dubbed him an“agent” of the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP), although he had always beencourteous towards the Dalit czarina.Azad, who commands considerableclout among the Dalit youth in westernUP districts, is planning to launch hisproposed political outfit with a rally inLucknow, which would also serve as theparty’s headquarters. His politicalambitions are sure to causeconsternation among Dalit leaders inthe BSP, the Samajwadi Party, and theCongress, while indirectly helping theBJP by splitting the Dalit vote.

Absent pleaseThe Rajya Sabha secretariat onThursday released the names of the 16MPs who were absent at the time ofvoting on the Citizenship AmendmentBill in the Upper House on Wednesday.These included all three from the ShivSena and two of the four of theNationalist Congress Party. While NCPchief Sharad Pawar and Praful Patelvoted against the Bill, Majeed Memonand Vandana Chavan were absent.Others absent included the BJP'sChunibhai Gohel and Anil Baluni, bothof whom are unwell, as was theSamajwadi Party's Beni Prasad Vermaand independent Amar Singh. TheTrinamool Congress' K D Singh was alsoabsent. The more intriguing part wasthe absence of two of the four BahujanSamaj Party MPs. They were Rajaramand Ashok Siddharth. Interestingly,the Janata Dal (Secular)'s D KupendraReddy, its lone member in the House,went missing at the time of the votethough he had spoken against the Bill,as did his party chief H D Deve Gowda.The Telangana Rashtra Samithi'sDharmapuri Srinivas was absent, whilethe rest of the MPs of the party votedagainst the Bill.

Less than nine months before the2008 Beijing Olympics, MichaelPhelps slipped and fell outside

his training facility and fractured hiswrist. Even as the world wonderedwhether he would be able to resumecompetitive swimming after doctorssaid the fracture would take months toheal, Phelps and his coach, Bob

Bowman, had other ideas. After muchcoaxing from them, doctors surgicallyrepaired the wrist — and the championwas back in water just 10 days later.

The rest is history as Phelps woneight gold medals. Behind the aston-ishing success was incredible hardwork. Phelps started swimming with-out the use of his arms at all as the frac-ture meant he could no longer counton his long and powerful upper body,and had to focus on the weakness of hislegs. Finally, Phelps won many of theraces at the Beijing Olympics using thestrength of his powerful new kick.

This is a perfect lesson in contin-gency planning — you and your teammembers must think through whatyou are going to do if things don’t goperfectly.

After he finished fifth in his firstOlympic final in Sydney in 2000 as a15-year-old, Phelps said he used his

absence from the medal podium asmotivation. So he decided to get intothe pool the next day itself. Six monthslater, he broke his first world record.

This just proves there is no shortcutto success even for the mega-talented.Phelps used to swim intensively sixhours a day, seven days a week, 365days a year, for almost two decades. Asother swimmers took one day off in aweek, this habit gave him 52 days ofextra practice every year. “If you wantto be the best, you have to do thingsthat other people aren’t willing to do,”Phelps said at the Hindustan TimesLeadership Summit last week.

His comments at the Summit were afantastic lesson in leadership — the stuffchampions are made of and their abilityto embrace adversity and leverage it totheir competitive advantage. Apart fromthe hard work day after day, here aresome other lessons curated from Phelp’s

comments in various forums.n Be prepared to succeed: Phelpsshowed why it was important to getcomfortable with being uncomfortable.Thus, preparation for all possible con-tingencies is an important part of aleader’s training. That way, nothingthat happened during a swimmingevent would cause him to freak out orleave his comfort zone. In short, set agoal, figure out what you need to do toachieve it and then pursue it witheverything you have.n Never give up: Phelps experiencedmany setbacks during the prime of hislife, including the wrist fracture beforethe Beijing Olympics. But he foughtback every time. Consider this: At theheight of his career, a single photo, tak-en from a cell phone, showing himsmoking marijuana at a college partysent his life into a tailspin. He wasridiculed, lost major contracts, was sus-pended by USA Swimming and was sodepressed that he couldn’t even get outof bed. But he did what only championsdid: he accepted his mistake, madeamends and then went on to recapturethe magic. In his public engagements,Phelps has talked about the importanceof fiercely protecting one’s brand rep-

utation as it could take years and yearsto build a strong brand. But about 60seconds of bad judgement can makeyou lose everything.n Set clear goals: Phelps did, as he foundit helped to put his goals down on paperand to frequently look them over, espe-cially after a tough day. While earlierhe used to think about the next race orthe next practice, now he tracks long-term goals — five, 10 and even 20 yearsfrom now. It’s vital for a leader to adjusthis thinking to think that far ahead. n Raise the bar after every success:Writing down your goals and remind-ing yourself about them is not enough.You will have to set audacious goals asan 8-year-old Phelps did. As Phelps saidat the HT Summit, he was not chasingmedals, he was chasing times. He knewthe times of all his competitors, heknew his competitors better than theyknew themselves. He knew the timeshe needed to get, so that no one couldtouch him — ever. That means he nevercompared himself with anyone else andalways tried to beat his past perfor-mance.

It is obvious from all this that theroad to super stardom is not for theweak hearted.

Swimming against the tide

> LETTERS

Listen to NE’s concernsThis refers to “Anti-CAB protest rocknortheast” (December 11). Amidintensifying protest in most parts ofthe northeast, both the houses ofParliament went ahead and clearedthe Citizenship (Amendment) Bill(CAB) without giving much thoughtto the concerns of the people of thenortheast. Over the years the verydemography of this region is threat-ened because of the continuousinflux of illegal immigrants. Ouridentity, language, culture is at stake.We have become a minority in ourown country.

However, CAB in the current formwill push the indigenous people ofthe northeast to the brink. As I write1,000 km away from my homeland,back in Assam, there is an indefinitecurfew, internet has been suspendedand the Army is on the standby. Thenation should condemn this.

Nilabh Mahanta New Delhi

Pay heed to TraiThis refers to the editorial "Pricingpower" (December 9). All the threeprivate telecom operators haveshown rare unanimity in asking theTelecom Regulatory Authority ofIndia (Trai) to fix floor prices formobile data services. This is some-what unexpected as the market dis-ruptor Reliance Jio, unlike the othertwo private operators, was not in

favour of any floor prices till sometime back. However, it seems thatJio might have had a change ofheart, as floor prices, if fixed by theregulator, would only strengthen itsalready strong position.

However, the Trai has all alongmaintained that floor prices are notdesirable. The editorial rightlymakes a point that fixing floor pricewould be anti-consumer. Trai ismandated to protect the health ofthe telecom sector, of which theconsumers are the biggest stake-holders. As such, Trai need notaccept the plea of telcos for fixingfloor prices.

Warring telcos should settle theirprice war themselves and not makeTrai a party to it. Also, it is a mis-placed notion that voice and notdata is an essential service and onlythe former should be under the for-bearance regime. In fact, mobiledata now has become quite anessential part of communication, attimes, replacing voice calls due tothe widespread use of free messag-ing apps. Only market should deter-mine the price.

Sanjeev Kumar Singh Jabalpur

Letters can be mailed, faxed or e-mailed to: The Editor, Business StandardNehru House, 4 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg New Delhi 110 002 Fax: (011) 23720201 · E-mail: [email protected] letters must have a postal address andtelephone number

The Y S Jaganmohan Reddy-led gov-ernment’s decision to introduceprohibition in Andhra Pradesh has

once again exposed an ostrich-like head-in-the-sand attitude of our opinionshapers. By and large, they maintain a con-spiracy of silence on the nation-wide men-ace of rising liquor consumption. But assoon as someone proposes prohibition,they all wake up and attack it as an unwork-able and populist measure, without quiteacknowledging the problem or ever both-ering to advocate an alternative solution.

After CM Reddy announced his plansfor prohibition in a phased manner, edito-rials in the English media were quick todismiss this as a populist move, a policythat was designed to fail, if not a moralistintrusion into matters of personal liberty.Anti-liquor activists and movements con-tinue with their simplistic belief that com-plete prohibition is a fool-proof solution tothe problem. Between them, the moralis-ing prohibitionists and libertarian anti-pro-hibitionists have prevented an informedand constructive debate on an issue thatdeserves urgent national attention.

The alcohol menace keeps coming upon the media radar and is pushed backevery time. In recent years, the govern-ments of Bihar, Kerala and Haryana haveintroduced different forms of liquor con-trol measures. Bihar opted for complete

prohibition with mixed results. Keralapreferred a more sensible policy of gradedreduction in liquor consumption. Thenew government in Haryana hasannounced a half-hearted policy of clo-sure of liquor shops when demanded by10 per cent gram sabha members.Maharashtra has witnessed strong anti-liquor movements leading to prohibitionin three districts. Anti-liquor movementsare strong in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

I understood the significance of thisissue in my padayatra of about 200 vil-lages in the Rewari district of Haryana inJuly 2018. Without an exception, womenin every single village listed increasingliquor consumption as the number oneproblem. They were desperate for anysolution. Panchayats are no good, theysaid, as they get a commission in liquorsale (yes, there is a formal payment perbottle). They wanted, and tried, breakingdown or burning of liquor vends, but tono avail. One woman took me aside andproposed poisoning of liquor to get rid ofthis menace once and for all!

Metropolitan intellectuals and policy-makers have no idea of the nature of thisproblem. They continue to think of drink-ing through the prism of their own elitesocial practice. They don’t realise that apeg or two in an upper-class drawing roomis a very different thing from a-quarter-a-day for a family that earns barely ~300 dai-ly. They think that any plea for liquor con-trol is moralising. True, often Gandhianand religious prohibitionists do makedrinking into a moral issue, which it is not.In our country, alcohol is a growing healthhazard, economic problem and a socialmenace. Sadly, the denial by our opinionmakers fits perfectly into the vested inter-est of the liquor lobby and their nexus withpoliticians to ensure that this menacegrows undetected and unresponded to.

This year, the Ministry of Social Justiceand Empowerment published a major

report, ‘Magnitude of Substance Use inIndia’, based on a massive sample surveyacross India. Add to these findings theWHO’s latest data on alcohol use in Indiafrom its Global Burden of Disease Studyand Global Status Report on Alcohol andHealth to understand the nature andextent of this problem.

First, the extent of liquor consumptionis higher than we imagine: about 33 percent of adult males (but less than 2 percent of adult women) consume liquor. Theproportion of male drinkers is above 50per cent in states like Chhattisgarh,Tripura, Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, Goaand Uttar Pradesh. About 25 lakh childrenin age group 10-17 also drink. Second,drinking in India means ‘hard drinks’ orspirits (which comprises 92 per cent oftotal alcohol consumption, compared to44 per cent global average) over wine orbeer. This increases health hazards. Third,the amount of alcohol consumed by everydrinker is 18.3 litre per year on an average,much higher than the global average. Thatworks out to about 50 millilitres of purealcohol, or five pegs, every day. The pro-portion of drinkers who engage in heavydrinking is 55 per cent in India, again high-er than the world average. Fourth, nearlyone-third of drinkers, a total of 5.7 crorepeople, are either dependent on or harmedby alcohol use. They need help, but only 3per cent of them ever get medical or psy-chological help needed. Finally, there is adirect and measurable impact on health.At least 2.6 lakh deaths every year can bedirectly attributed to liver disease, or can-cer or accidents caused by drinking.

Besides health, drinking has serioussocio-economic consequences, especiallyfor the poor. An average rural familyspends about 2.5 per cent of its income onintoxicants, which may be one-eighth ofits disposable income once the basicnecessities are paid for. An addict couldbe spending anything between one-fifth

to one-half of the total family income onhis own drinking. In social terms, thebrunt of drinking is borne by women. Wifeand child beating, social violence, sexualabuse, family discord and break-up, andchild neglect are some of the most obviousresults of drinking. No wonder, most wom-en hate drinking. By now it is an estab-lished fact that for every litre of liquor, thepoor suffer more in terms of health andsocial consequences than the affluent.

Given the seriousness of the problem,it is nothing short of a scandal that liquorcontrol policy does not figure on India’snational agenda. It is not hard to imaginewhat such a policy might be like. Total pro-hibition is unlikely to figure there becauseit has proven counter-productive far toooften. While it does bring drinking seri-ously down, it tends to encourage smug-gling, liquor mafia and spurious liquor.

What we need is a national plan forgradual reduction and control of alcoholuse. This would involve, first of all, reduc-tion in the dependence of state govern-ments on liquor revenues. It would allowthe state governments to stop aggressivelypromoting liquor. Second, the existingrules and laws regulating the sale andretail of liquor, the location of shops, open-ing timings and surrogate advertisingmust be enforced. Three, liquor licensewithin a village or urban residential areashould not be granted if 10 per cent oflocal community objects to it. Four, inno-vative social campaigns, such asMuktipath in Gadchiroli district inMaharashtra, should be supported towean people, especially the youth, fromthe culture of drinking. Finally, a certainpercentage, say about one-fifth of the gov-ernment revenue earned from liquor sale,must be spent on alcohol and drug reduc-tion and rehabilitation programmes. Canfeminist intellectuals and women’s move-ment take a lead in developing a nationalconsensus on this agenda?By special arrangement with ThePrint

The author is the national president of SwarajIndia. Views are personal.

The havoc liquor is wreakingINSIGHT

YOGENDRA YADAV

Michael Phelps showed why leaders should get comfortable withbeing uncomfortable

> HAMBONE

HUMAN FACTORSHYAMAL MAJUMDAR

OCASSIONAL ASIDEAMIT TANDON

OPINION 9> STAY INFORMED THROUGH THE DAY @ WWW.BUSINESS-STANDARD.COM

The Union Cabinet has signed off on further amendments to the landmarkInsolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). The purpose of these amendmentsis to ensure that there is greater protection for successful bidders underthe resolution process. In particular, they should not be subject to criminal

action for offences that might have been committed by the previous managementof the company or asset owner. In some recent cases, the winning bidder hasexplicitly sought such protection. The possibility of criminal proceedings is, afterall, a major deterrence to many investors who might be interested in a stressedasset but do not want to take on the asset when there is an unknowable criminalinvestigation-related risk. In addition, a lack of insulation from criminal proceedingscan lead to major delays in the insolvency process. But the IBC’s effectivenessdepends crucially on the mechanism working at speed. Thus, it is essential thatthese amendments swiftly be enacted into law.

Certainly, the question of criminal investigation interfering with the bankruptcyprocess should have been considered before. The National Company Law Tribunalhas, in fact, had to ask the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Corporate Affairsto sort out which two legal processes — investigation and bankruptcy — shouldtake precedence. The context was the sale of the assets of Bhushan Power and SteelLtd (BPSL) to JSW Steel, which was derailed by the attachment of some BPSL assetsby the Enforcement Directorate (ED), which comes under the Union finance ministry.Naturally, the attachment of assets means that a significant degree of uncertaintyand delay has been injected into the process. Among the stakeholders who will behurt by this are the banks who are dependent upon the insolvency process forrecovery. If promoters or the management of a company admitted under the insol-vency process needs to be investigated, it should be done separately without affectingthe company assets. Clearly, greater legal clarity on the process was needed, andthis is what has hopefully been provided by the Cabinet’s intervention.

Once again, the government has demonstrated its intent to swiftly respond toemergent problems in the IBC process and plug loopholes. It is, of course, true thatsuch a divergence should have been foreseen in law, and doubly true that the actionof the ED should have taken into account that the IBC process was ongoing. Thereis something deeply wrong at the ED if it proceeds with automatic attachment ofproperties without sufficient application of mind. Systemic implications should beconsidered at a higher level than they are currently. But it is nevertheless a goodsign that, as with previous changes to the IBC, the government has not let the grassgrow under its feet.

It is to be hoped that the amendment will be drafted in a manner that it standsup in court. The government must continue to improve and patch the IBC normswherever possible, and privilege the certainty and speed that are supposed to bebuilt into the insolvency and bankruptcy process. It is, after all, the current govern-ment’s landmark financial reform and unprecedented in its way. Constant attentionis needed if it is to be institutionalised, and capital markets in India are to be renderedmore flexible than they are now.

Rating alarm India needs policy intervention at multiple levels

Persisting slow economic growth could affect India’s sovereign rating, S&PGlobal Ratings has warned in its latest note. In a late night statement onThursday, S&P said it could consider downgrading India’s sovereign ratingin case the economy failed to recover. Last month, another global rating

agency, Moody’s, changed its outlook for India’s credit rating from stable to negativedue to the economic slowdown, financial stress in the rural sector, and liquidityissues in the financial sector.

The Indian economy is in a difficult situation and the possibility of ratingdowngrades will only exacerbate the complications in economic management.Growth in the Indian economy slipped to a six-year low of 4.5 per cent in the secondquarter of the current fiscal year and high-frequency indicators are not pointing toa sharp recovery in the coming quarters. Both transient and structural reasons areresponsible for a sharp deceleration in growth. Even though S&P expects economicgrowth to pick up, it rightly notes that a return to sustained high growth will dependon structural reforms. Among other factors, stress in both the banking and non-banking financial sectors is affecting the flow of credit in the economy, resulting inlower growth. This has also limited the transmission of lower policy rates of theReserve Bank of India, despite the availability of ample liquidity in the system. Tillthe system is cleaned up, and this may require large-scale capital infusion in bothbanking and non-banking financial companies, the financial sector would limitthe possibility of economic recovery.

Further, as S&P correctly highlighted, complications in the implementation ofgoods and services tax (GST) created some disruption in the economy. The impor-tance of addressing all issues in the GST system cannot be overemphasised. TheGST Council should comprehensively review and urgently address all the gaps inthe system. The underperformance of the GST system has also worsened the fiscalposition of both the central and state governments. In fact, India’s fiscal conditionis another red flag. S&P expects India’s general government deficit to rise to 7.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the current fiscal year. The combineddeficit is expected to come down to 7.1 per cent of GDP in the next fiscal year,assuming an improved macroeconomic backdrop. However, an increase in thefiscal deficit and debt accumulation can put pressure on sovereign ratings. Therefore,a significant fiscal expansion to revive economic growth, as being proposed bysome commentators, is not a viable option for India.

The government will have to find ways to revive growth while remaining com-mitted to maintaining the fiscal balance. Besides the pressure on sovereign ratings,higher deficit and borrowings can create distortions in the financial system, impedinggrowth in the medium term. Thus, the focus should be on easing restrictions on thefunctioning of markets, including factor markets such as land and labour, to pushIndia’s potential growth. The government should also revisit its approach to globaltrade. Stagnation on the exports front, as has been the case over the last few years,will restrict the possibility of returning to a higher growth path. The sharp decelerationin economic growth clearly suggests that India needs policy intervention at multiplelevels. Policymakers would do well to not ignore the views of global rating agencies.

Volume XXIV Number 86

MUMBAI | FRIDAY, 13 DECEMBER 2019

It was Henry Kissinger (or perhaps it was Ludwigvon Mises) who once observed that all foreignpolicy was really domestic politics. Meaning

that the true impact of actions abroad was meantto be felt inside the country rather than outside.How is one to understand the CitizenshipAmendment Bill (CAB) from this point of view?

If the CAB, which will soon belaw, is meant to do something andis aimed at mobilising or motivat-ing some group of voters, thenwhich group is it? This is not easyto understand. There has been noorganised action from minorityBangladeshis, Afghans andPakistanis demanding citizenshipof India because of historic perse-cution. Conversely, there was nolarge set of voters making demandson behalf of Lahore’s Christians,Karachi’s Parsis, Kabul’s Sikhs andDhaka’s Hindus.

This is not to say that a small group of highlymotivated Indians cannot affect policy. They canand they have. As prime minister Atal BihariVajpayee confessed he was unable to resist the influ-ence of 100 middle class families (relatives of thehostages of IC 814) who forced him into releasingMasood Azhar and Omar Saeed Shaikh, creatingthe Jaish-e-Muhammad. But that was more per-sonal, more pressing and more public a campaign.This law has been pushed through without anymomentum behind it. Certainly, it is not like oneof the three historic Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)anti-Muslim policy thrusts concerning Ayodhya,Kashmir and Muslim personal law. As events inAssam show, a far larger number of Indians areagainst this law than those, if any, who have askedfor it. That is what makes it strange. Why antagonise

real voters to please fictional ones?Also, as others have pointed out, most notably

former home minister P Chidambaram, the Billexcludes minorities from other immediate neigh-bours. There is no refuge under the CAB availableto Sri Lanka’s Tamils, who can surely claim perse-cution more credibly than the Parsi shipping mag-

nates of Karachi. Elsewhere, Bhutan is more

theocratic than Pakistan, with aban on proselytisation and abso-lute authority, both temporal andspiritual, vested in a hereditaryBuddhist monarchy. However, thisBill does not address the problemsof those Bhutanese who feeloppressed by this. So, it appearsthat the cited reason of standingbehind such minorities is notentirely what it is claimed to be.

So, then, how are we to under-stand the CAB and what it is intended to do andwho it is intended for? There are two things thatone can narrow down to as the ruling party’s moti-vation. The first is ideology. This sounds grand butis actually tawdry. The message is domestic, andto the Indian Muslim. We are telling them we haveisolated them and their religion as not only unwant-ed but unwelcome in India and that is the messageof the CAB. If this is the primary motivation, and Ido not know if it is, it is not particularly effectivebecause it will only make Muslims more determinedand dogged in their resistance to their persecution.Inventing new ways of exclusion will not produceany particular positive benefit for this governmentand the ruling party.

The second way in which we can understandthe CAB is through linking it with the grand exerciseof the National Register of Citizens being planned

across the country by the home minister. The num-bers in Assam were not encouraging and it is beingreported that out of the 1.9 million excluded, themajority were not Muslims. This was to the dismayof the Assam BJP, which is now insisting that thething be scrapped.

The CAB will ensure that only the Muslims onthis or any future list will be left to prove their cit-izenship and the others will be given cover byvirtue of their religion. Here also, it is not easy tounderstand what the end game is. If we round upa million or two million people and claim they areforeigners, what will we do with them? Bangladesh,Pakistan and Afghanistan are not going to takethem and there is no mechanism for us to sendthem. We cannot permanently jail them as is beingplanned through “detention centres” because theworld will not allow it. Even if India’s internal struc-tures and a compromised judiciary are too weakto prevent industrial scale brutalisation of India’sMuslims, it is safe to assume that the world willnot let us get away with it in 2020 on the level thatthis is being imagined. If we believe we can getaway with it, then that is naivety and not becomingof this prime minister.

Finally, even the well-meaning among us whogenuinely feel for the minorities of Pakistan andBangladesh might consider addressing existing dis-crimination in our society, including against thosewe are welcoming, rather than saving the rest ofSouth Asia. We feel for Pakistan’s Christians butwith what credibility can we claim that India’sChristians are treated better? If we ask this com-munity what their thoughts are of freedom in Indiaand particularly the India of the present times, theanswers will not bring us comfort.

The New York Times reported on this matter afew months ago and interviewed a Hindu fromPakistan, producing the following words:“Bhagchand Bheel is one of the disappointed. Whenhe migrated to India in 2014, he was grateful toleave the violence and pressure of Karachi,Pakistan’s commercial hub. He boarded the TharExpress to Zero Point Station, the last stop beforethe border, where he and his family lugged theirbags by foot into India, settling in a camp in thecity of Jodhpur. He was among his people, hethought, and could finally be free. But he is of alower caste, and when he tried to enter a Hindutemple, he was barred entry by the priest becauseof it, he said. And when a friend tried to drink fromthe community water well, he was physicallyassaulted by upper caste Brahmins who accusedhim of polluting it.”

“In Pakistan, the only thing that matters is ifyou are Hindu or Muslim,” said Mr Bheel, whoselast name is derived from his tribe. “Because weare Hindus, in Pakistan we were discriminatedagainst. But in India, I face discrimination becauseI’m a Bheel.”

What the Citizenship Amendment Bill is intended to do and whoit is intended for is unclear

Soon after pulling out of the RegionalComprehensive Economic Partnership, thecommerce ministry was suggesting placing

renewed emphasis on the Look West Policy. This isclearly not an alternative to not joining the RCEP,and in some sense, not being a part of this centurybelonging to Asia.

India hardly has a presence in Asia. The SouthAsian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)is non-functional. We don’t yet have a fully function-ing India-Asean free trade agreement (FTA), nor India-Japan or India-Korea FTA. These are just signed agree-ments but not operating as full-fledged FTAs. Evenour India-Singapore FTA is in limbo, with differencesover temporary relocation of labour issues. We arenot a part of the Asia-PacificEconomic Cooperation (APEC)either. Hence, not joining the RCEPwas a big blunder, unless our posi-tion was a tactical bargaining move.

The European Union and the USare not ideal for us to get into a bind-ing FTA. Tariffs are near zero there,and these countries will be muchmore demanding than the RCEP notonly in terms of lowering our tariffs,but also in non-trade barriers, intel-lectual property rights (IPRs), com-petition policy, investment policy,trade in services, and even labour and environmentalstandards. I don’t see how our industry can meetthese stiff demands. If they can, then why did we exitthe RCEP?

India-EU FTA discussion has been ongoing since2007, with little or no progress to date. This is onaccount of:n India’s inflexibility on lowering tariffs for cars. n India’s reluctance to fully liberalise the wines andspirits market.n India’s reluctance to fully liberalise professionalservices.

n EU’s reluctance to provide a comprehensive Mode4 visa to India.n EU’s reluctance to certify India as a “data secure”location within the FTA itself, in a manner that allowsIndian regulators the primacy for enforcement.n EU’s reluctance to provide India with technical bar-riers to trade (TBT) assurances for key sectors such astextiles, engineering, agro-processed foods, pharma-ceuticals and chemicals.n IPR issues.

To resolve these issues, and to begin planningan India-US FTA, we need a strong Indian negoti-ating team that is up to date with key developmentsin trade and investment. Our negotiations with both

the US and the EU should take thefollowing points in focus:n Mode 4 of General Agreement onTrade in Services (GATS) was cru-cial in the 1990s and 2000s. Startingmid-2010s, increasing automationand artificial intelligence (AI) hasmade Mode 4 very limited. n Mode 1 of GATS: Real focus ishere. Anticipate future regulatorybarriers around data privacy/secu-rity/localisation, as well as tariffs inthe form of taxes that disincentiviseoffshoring of knowledge work such

as high-end big data analytics, and code writing forAI, and app development and maintenance ofremote medical consulting, legal, and financialresearch.n On manufacturing the focus should be on pro-cessed food, textile/garments/chemicals/pharma-ceuticals. Not on tariffs (already low) but on TBTsto ensure compliance at minimum cost for theirstandards.n For engineering, the major focus would be to geta liberal Rules of Origin. This helps us use ourmature engineering sector integrate with lower cost

champions of intermediates in Vietnam/Thailandand do the finished products in India. Think of Pune,Chennai and Ahmedabad clusters being able to inte-grate into value-chains across Southeast Asia, anddeliver value-added final products to these maturemarkets. This would also become a magnet for for-eign direct investment (FDI).n In manufacturing, there is a case for protectingsmall cars for giving a good deal on higher pricedvehicles (over $20,000) n Buy time (10-year liberalisation with back-loadingtowards the end of the period) for e-vehicles, includ-ing e-scooters and bikes. Use the time to developlocal industry at breakneck speed. Use the tariffprotection and economies of scale to get investmentand tech into the country.n For services, we should resist any protection tolegal services and accounting (powerful vested inter-ests), and e-retail, and go for liberalisation of mediaand airlines.n On IPR, we need to insist on not going beyond theWorld Trade Organization norms because thatwould impact our ability to have flexibility on inno-vation for years to come.

The bargaining issues discussed above are diffi-cult to resolve especially with the current negotiatingteam in the commerce ministry. They will bematched with very competent United States TradeRepresentative and EU negotiating teams. We imme-diately need to create the Trade Policy Council thatI proposed in my piece “PM Needs to Oversee TradePolicy and Negotiations, Business Standard,November 13). We need an experienced trade nego-tiator to strike a win-win trade deal with US and EU.On all accounts, it will take time for us to gainenhanced market access in these countries. Hence,we should definitely sign the RCEP in February 2020and focus on Asia for immediate and lasting gains.

The writer is a former economic advisor to the Unioncommerce ministry

It was a quote that made the headlines,as no doubt it was intended to. On a tourto publicise her latest book, HillaryClinton was asked what was the gutsiestthing she had ever done. The formerFirst Lady, former Senator and formerSecretary of State of the United States,the first woman to be nominated ascandidate for the American presidency,thought for a moment and thenresponded. The gutsiest thing she hadever done personally, she confessed, wasto make the decision to stay in hermarriage. The moment the words wereout of her mouth, her daughter and co-author, Chelsea Clinton, clearly

overwhelmed with emotion, reached outand held her mother’s hand. Of course,that answer put the focus back on theClinton marriage, the soap opera that somany of us lived through in the 1990swith its serial infidelities thatculminated in the Oval office affair withMonica Lewinsky, and led to BillClinton’s impeachment, rather than thebook Hillary was talking up. But as thesaying goes, all publicity is goodpublicity.

And certainly, The Book of GutsyWomen – Favourite Stories of Courageand Resilience, could do with sometalking up. This is an enormous tome,running to 442 pages, which bringstogether the potted biographies of aseries of remarkable women — somefamous, others not so well known —whom the Clinton ladies believe qualifyfor the title of “gutsy women”. It is a veryworthy effort but just a teeny bit boring,because of the earnest and sometimesdreary tone of the writing.

You can’t fault the Clinton ladies for

organisation, though. The “gutsywomen” of the title are divided intoeasy-to-sort categories. There are theEducation Pioneers, the EarthDefenders, the Explorers and Inventors,the Advocatesand Activists,the Storytellers,theGroundbreak -ers, theWomen’s RightsCham pions…well, you get thedrift. Some ofthese womenjust get a quicklook in, withtheir life storiescompressed to a few paragraphs, whilethe stories of others get more detailedtreatment.

There are chapters devoted to theusual suspects, the kind who keepturning up in books of this kind: MalalaYousufzai; Helen Keller; Greta

Thunberg; Marie Curie; FlorenceNightingale; Eleanor Roosevelt; BillieJean King; Jane Goodall; and manyothers. And though the book providesno new information or even anyparticular insight into the lives of theseparticular women, you could argue thatit would not have done to leave themout in a book of this kind even if it does

make for dullreading.

In fact, thebook only trulycomes alivewhen theClintons writeabout womenthat they knowpersonally,whether it isHillary’sschoolteacher,Mrs Elizabeth

King, who pushed her to excel, GeraldineFerraro, the first woman to run for vice-president of the United States, or BettyFord, another Former First Lady who didso much to break the stigma aroundaddiction and spoke openly about herbreast cancer diagnosis at a time when

such candour was rare.That same personal touch brings

alive the story of Dr Mona Hanna-Attisha, the daughter of Iraqiimmigrants to America, who firstdiscovered that children in Flint,Michigan, were being poisoned by thelead in their water, and brought thewater crisis to light. And the chapter onCoretta Scott King, the widow of MartinLuther King, sings because you can feelhow moved Hillary and Chelsea are asthey recount the highlights of her life.

My own favourite “gutsy woman”crops up near the end of the book. She iscalled Sophia Duleep Singh and is thedaughter of the last Sikh Maharaja ofIndia and a goddaughter of QueenVictoria. Brought up amidst immensewealth and protected by privilege,Sophia gets a rude awakening to therealities of life when she first travels backto India. Once she returns to England,she signs up with the Suffragistmovement, refusing to pay taxes to agovernment that denied womenrepresentation. Sophia was among thoseintrepid women who stormed the Houseof Commons in 1910, demanding thatwomen be given the right to vote, which

was finally granted eight years later.The only other Indian woman who

gets a look in (if you don’t count Indian-origin woman, Reshma Sanjani, whostarted the programme GirlsWho Code)is Ela Bhatt, who founded the SelfEmployed Women’s Association(SEWA) in 1971. Hillary has had a longassociation with SEWA and Bhatt andrecounts her first visit where nearly onethousand women arrived to hear herspeak. “Fanning themselves in theirsapphire-, emerald-, and ruby-colouredsaris, they looked like an undulatingrainbow,” she recalls. After Hillaryaddressed them, all the ladies rose totheir feet and began singing “We ShallOvercome” in Gujarati.

An overwhelmed Hillary writes, “Inthat moment, the thread connectingGandhi’s principles of nonviolence tothe American civil rights movementcame full circle, back to India.”

It is moments like this that makeplowing through this mightymanuscript worth your while. Andwhich make it the ideal gift for younggirls on the cusp of adolescence whoneed all the role models of “gutsywomen” they can get.

Look West can’t replace Act East

A testament for women

Govt steps in again to protect the IBC

The right reaction

Decoding CAB

THE BOOK OF GUTSYWOMEN: FavouriteStoriesOf CourageAndResilienceAuthor:HillaryRodham Clinton &Chelsea Clinton

Publisher: Simon &Schuster

Price: 799

AAKAR PATEL

BOOK REVIEWSEEMA GOSWAMI

JAYANTA ROY

ILLUSTRATION: BINAY SINHA

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mumbai | friday 13 december 2019 swimming against the …...8 issues and insights mumbai | friday 13...

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