multi-billion dollar microcap opportunity hiding in a dark alley
TRANSCRIPT
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Multi-billion dollar microcap opportunity hiding in a dark alley
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Disclosures
This slide deck contains current opinions of Bigger Capital as of May 19 only and maycontain certain forward-looking information. Such information involves known andunknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual investmentresults, performance or achievements to be materially different from those implied bystatements herein, and therefore these statements should not be read as guaranteesof future performance or results. All forward-looking statements are based on ourcurrent beliefs as well as assumptions made by and information currently available toit as well as other factors. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on theseforward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this slide deck. Actualevents may differ materially from current expectations. Bigger Capital disclaims anyintention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether asa result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Bigger Capital and related entities own more than 10% of the company discussed inthis presentation. This micro cap stock is not suitable for the majority of investors. Thelikely outcome of an investment is a loss of principal. Take our opinions with a grain of
salt. If you find yourself relying on our views to make an investment decision it meansyou definitely did not do your homework about this situation. Please do not rely onour views, instead use the information as a jumping off point to begin your ownindependent due diligence.
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Bigger Capital
Invest in situations that have more than 10 times return potential.
Hard to replicate and misunderstood business model.
Management team that can lead the effort to success.
Very cheap.
Little to no debt.
We make very few bets.
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Results Highlight
Innovative Fibers (1995). Sold to Alcatel in 2000. 600x.
Amazon.com (2001). Still holding. Up to 100x on some purchases.
Priceline (2002). Sold too early. 4x.
McDonalds (2003). 4x.
Netflix (2005). Sold too early. 5x.
Crocs (2009). 11x.
Plug Power (2013). 9x.
American Apparel (2014). 2x.
Phorm (2014). Insolvent (2016). OOPS! We do make many mistakes. Take our
opinions with a grain of salt.
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Making a high margin of safety, multi bagger potential, and simple to understand
bet on a company that has a better than a fair chanceof finding a cure for
Alzheimers disease.
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Multi-billion dollar opportunity hiding in a dark alley.
This tiny microcap is a next to free call option that could return 2x, 5x, 10x, 50x+.
According to the Alzheimer Association, the cost to care for Alzheimers patients
and other dementias are projected to increase from $183 billion in 2011 to $1.1
trillion in 2050 as the baby boomers population ages. Alzheimers will affect
everyone and all of us to varying degree - including yourself.
Lets do something about extinguishing the scourge of the twenty first century.
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SO WHAT IS THE BIG IDEA?
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Our mission is to discover and develop precision medicine solutions for early detection
and effective treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, in particular Alzheimers
disease (AD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).
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0
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10/2007 10/2008 10/2009 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 10/2013 10/2014 10/2015
PricePerShare(PMN.TO,CDN)
2007 to 2014 ProMIS, led by Chief Scientist Dr. Neil Cashman,
developed a strong prion intellectual property and super
computing platform to model how proteins misfold. It investedmore than $30 million in its platform and pursuing multiple
objectives such as finding a cure for ALS and Ovarian Cancer,
among others.
The management team under the leadership of a controversial
BOD, spent all the money they had without focus chasing too
many rabbits in too many directions.See end notes for more details. 9
PMN.TO
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0
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0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
10/2007 10/2008 10/2009 10/2010 10/2011 10/2012 10/2013 10/2014 10/2015
PricePerShare(PMN.TO,CDN)
In early 2015, the company ran out of cash setting the stage for a
company reset on a stronger foundation with renewed focus.
In June 2015, the Board is reconstituted, Gene Williams becomesits Executive Chairman, and Elliot Goldstein becomes Promis CEO.
In the summer 2015, the company raises $2 million followed by a
$1 million (CDN) round this spring.
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PMN.TO
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Why did management join a roadkill?
Elliot and I have worked together since the 1980's, and realize we make a very effective team. Heinvested in one of my successful startups (Adheris), and I was on his Board at British Biotech, amongother things.
A few years ago we decided to make that partnership our sole focus. Drug development is a teamenterprise, and we make a good team.
When we created and ran DART, we realized that it would be a great deal easier administratively if Elliot
and I had a legal entity through which we could offer management services. That clarified issues like
reporting, accounting, ensuring that the client did not have to pay benefits, etc.
We quickly found ProMIS, and supported it for free for nearly a year, until we clarified the tremendousopportunityand set on the path you know about.
Eugene Williams
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Show Your Work
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Making a high margin of safety, multi bagger potential, and simple to understandbet on a
company that has more than a fair chance of finding a cure for Alzheimers.
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High margin of safety. Really? IP of the company is worthmore than its enterprise
value.
Lower strategic risk. Really? This companys computing algorithm provides a
rational framework for explaining why and how big pharma multi billion
investment research failed in moving an effective Alzheimers disease solution
across the finish line, and where the solution resides. This opportunity is a frugalinformation arbitragein that it uses its computing models and the results of tens
of billions of dollars of research to its advantage to move a solutionacross the
finish line resulting in a potential large payoff while avoiding a billion dollar plus
investment.
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Intellectual Property (IP)
Promis Algorithm
Collective Coordinates
Genus Patent on SOD-1 Protein (ALS)
Patents filed on 4 Amyloid Beta disease specific epitopes. 2 more filings are in the
pipeline. Promis believes a total of 6 epitopes will cover most of the Amyloid
territory.
Multiple Monoclonal Antibodies (MABs) that binds tightly to the epitope targets
and to forms of misfolded Ab, with no measurable off-target binding.
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Low enterprise value: $13 million USD (June 5)
High margin of safety: The company should get a multiple of its market cap of $13
million if it decided to put itself for sale. Lets assume the company sells the Promis
algorithm, Collective Coordinates, SOD1 IP for $2.5 million each and the
Alzheimers IP for $5 million. This is a reasonable value for each component when
you consider most start-ups get funded at more than a $2.5 million pre-moneyvaluation for basically an experimental idea. The company has NOLs of $26 million
USD of which $12.4 million can be used to offset taxable income indefinitely. I
conservatively assign a fair value of $7 million USD on these. Value = $19.5 million
or 1.5x
Worst case: We sell the assets for $6.5 million in a distressed sale and we lose 50%
of investment.
Burn rate: $2 million a years. Burn rate if the company pivots to a distressed sale:
$0.5 million a years.
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Tax Loss Carry-forwards
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Making a low risk, multi bagger potential, and simple to understandbet on a
company that has more than a fair chanceof finding a cure for Alzheimers.
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Simple to Understand: Biotech is complicated. Alzheimers disease science is also
extremely complicated. However, one doesnt need to understand quantum
physics to have a general idea about atoms. The same is true with Alzheimers. All
that is needed is a basic understanding of protein behavior to understand the
detective work that leads us to believe that finding a cure for Alzheimers disease
consists of completing the job that large pharma started by attacking the rootcause of the diseaseAmyloid Beta and Tau proteins.
The largestcompanies in industry, and the smartestscientists in academics, didnt
spend two decades pursuing a dead endthey were - half right -. Promis uses the
scientific clues from these experiments in conjunction with its algorithms to
develop effective solutions to Alzheimers disease to the market.
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General consensus that Alzheimers is caused by proteins that
misfold and then propagate their shapes and toxicity to other
proteins, initiating a chain reaction like a virus. These misfolding
proteins are named prions and they are toxic to the brain.
At The American Neurological Association held in September
2015 there was a strong consensus that prions drive
neurodegenerative diseases. This consensus emerged over the
last two years.
Dr. Cashman speaker at the Presidents Symposium is
recognized as a leader in the field. Dr. Cashmans work on
prions dates way back to the mad cow diseases emergence in
the 1990s.
Promis Neurosciences with a decade long prion expertise has
built computing algorithms to model how proteins misfold into
their toxic shapes.
It is our understanding that Promis is the only company that hasa rational model for the identification of prion processes
involved in AD. Most companies approaches are plaque centric
and PET scan centric for diagnostic.
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Making a high margin of safety, multi bagger potential, and
simple to understandbet on a company that has more than a
fair chanceof finding a cure for Alzheimers.
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There are no reasons to create solutions that bind to the inertplaque or the monomer. Any solution must neutralize the prion,
only the prion.
Big pharmas products bind the monomer and/or the plaques in
all cases.
Promissmultiple monoclonal antibodies targeting six Amyloid-
Beta prion epitopes (patents filed) showing no off targetbinding.
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The pharma industry has been attempting to target these errant proteins in hopes of stopping the diseaseprogression or even reversing it. Big pharmaceutical companies like Roche, Pfizer, Eli Lilly and Johnson and Johnsondid their best to come up with treatments based on an immunotherapy approach. That is, they developed antibodies
or antibody-like molecules that, once administered, would help to destroy and clear these errant proteins. Until late
last year, all clinical trials failed. However, at the end of last year, Biogen finally showed that such a therapeuticapproach can produce a sizable benefit to AD patients.
A gold rush is now underway to develop the most effective antibodies that would target these errant proteins,
particularly beta amyloid. This is where ProMIS Neurosciences with its proprietary ProMIS technology has a big
opportunity. ProMIS is a statistical thermodynamic algorithm that predicts how proteins degenerate into their
diseased (misfolded) forms and thereby provides a model of all the potential target regions of the protein (i.e.
epitopes) against which an antibody can be designed and produced. This approach would allow to develop a specific
therapeutic antibody and its related companion diagnostic, i.e. a precision medicine solution.
The ProMIS technology works and has been validated previously on many cancer types and neurodegenerative
diseases such as Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Of course, ProMIS is not the only method of identifying epitopes, and the
race to find such AD epitopes is very competitive and includes many pharma companies with formidable resources at
their disposal. ProMIS does however appear to have the advantage of being a theoretical and rational approach
to epitope identification while almost all other approaches are more trial-and-error/hit-or-miss.
Dr. Greg Kenaussis
Promis versus its competition.
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Confirmation
In article titled Alzheimer's researchers find clues to toxic forms of amyloid beta the
author states:
The actual structure of these soluble oligomers remains unknown
"The scattering experiment provided an indication of structure, and there is a
chance we can use this information to gain some structural insights," Raskatov
said. "We're pretty excited about that, because if we can understand the structure
of the neurotoxic oligomers, that could help efforts to design molecules to disrupt
them.
The bottom line is that Promis understands the structure of the neurotoxic oligomers,and it has identified and created monoclonal antibodies that disrupt them.
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http://news.ucsc.edu/2016/06/alzheimers-disease.htmlhttp://promisneurosciences.com/news/promis-neurosciences-announces-identification-multiple-product-candidates-targeting-alzheimers-disease/http://promisneurosciences.com/news/promis-neurosciences-announces-identification-multiple-product-candidates-targeting-alzheimers-disease/http://news.ucsc.edu/2016/06/alzheimers-disease.htmlhttp://news.ucsc.edu/2016/06/alzheimers-disease.htmlhttp://news.ucsc.edu/2016/06/alzheimers-disease.html -
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Making a high margin of safety, multi bagger potential, andsimple to understandbet on a company that has more than a
fair chance of finding a cure for Alzheimers.
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Large Potential Payoff: Biogen trial results in Dec. 2014 withAducanumabled to $20BB market value increase.
$20BB is 2000 timesour ideas enterprise value.
Aducanumab is the first Alzheimers drug to show some efficacy
but it shows severe side effects at higher dose. We suspect that
binding to the plaque creates this issue. The phase 3 trials will
select patients suffering from early symptoms of Alzheimers.These patients should have less plaque which should help the
results theoretically. This highlights the shortcoming of
Aducanumab.
Our due diligence indicates that several current and former
Biogen people have confirmed that there were sub-populations of
responders in Aducanumab trials pointing to the validity of Promisassertion that they exist 6 different strains of AD associated with
Amyloid Beta.
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Seeking Partners for ALS SOD1 and TDP43. Promis has limited
resources and it must focus on its massive AD opportunity.
Seeking investors for Alzheimers Amyloid Beta and Tau to bring
the Promis solutions across the finish line to realize its multi-billion payoff.
Strategy for realizing the value.
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How do we value this opportunity and the capital it requires? The somber reality is that is extremely hard to do because it is
path dependent.
It is next to impossible to assess the value of this company, but
everyone can assess probabilities to different outcomes
according to the clues we have uncovered about Promis
Neurosciences.
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Options theory basics.
The higher the potential upside, the more valuable the call options
becomes.
The time decay of a stock as an options is its burn rate minus the economic
value accreted. The longer the maturity of the options the more valuable it becomes.
The more prone to information entropy (unexpected news) the more
valuable the options.
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As an options Promis would cost $13 million to acquire. Lets assume there is a buyer for that options at $6.5 million
(distressed buyer).
The time decay of this options is $2 million per annum (burn
rate for the next year) but we are comfortable management is
creating that much value per year. The time decay is small at
the moment. The maturity of the options depends on managements ability
to find the funds to finance the big payoff pursuit. We believe
management will be able to raise the funds to conclude the In
vitro tests.
We expect this stock to gap frequently considering the
potential news flow and the fact that this company is off theradar screen (information entropy).
The range of potential outcome is massive by judging the
reaction of the public by pushing the value of Biogen up $20
Billion on the Aducanumab results.
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Your assessment a % probability of a distressed sale at $2.5million.
A % probability of an orderly sale at $13 million.
A % probability of an exit at $50 million.
A % of hitting the jackpot ($1 billion + after investment in the
drugs).
Sum this all up. What do you get? 1x, 2x, 10x, 50x?
With its enterprise value of $13 million and the quality of its IP
portfolio, I handicap this opportunity at a potential 25x to 50x
return. A very cheap options indeed.
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Catalysts
Management/Directors/Chief Scientist bought up to 49% of
April 2016 equity raise.
Potential ALS Partnership. Q3 or Q4.
In Vitro (Alzheimers) test results will be announced inSeptember or October.
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Recap
Thank You!
Promis Neurosciences is a high margin of safety, multi bagger
potential, and simple to understand bet on a company that has
way more than a fair chance of finding a cure for Alzheimers.
If the investment doesnt work out and we lose 50% or more ofour investment, we contributed to a great experiment and
cause that will affect us personally at some points in our lives.
No matter what happens, Promis results will help other
experiments to the same extent big pharmas results are
helping Promis Neurosciences at the moment.
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ENDNOTES
Slide 1 Inspiration for the framework used in this presentation comes from ChamathPalihapitiyasAmazon.com presentation.
Slide 2 Slide 7 http://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdf.
Slide 15 News Release.
Slide 16 NOLs are used in the context of a valuation framework for illustration purpose
but they are rarely the source of biotech business focus.
Slide 17 Slide taken from 2015 annual report.
Slide 20, 21, 24 Source: Promis Neurosciences Presentation.
Slide 25 Source: Dr. Greg Kenaussis.
Slide 30 Source: Promis Neurosciences Presentation.
Slide 35 Source: Promis Neurosciences.
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http://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdfhttp://promisneurosciences.com/news/promis-neurosciences-announces-identification-multiple-product-candidates-targeting-alzheimers-disease/https://ch.linkedin.com/in/dr-gregory-l-kenausis-80469012https://ch.linkedin.com/in/dr-gregory-l-kenausis-80469012https://ch.linkedin.com/in/dr-gregory-l-kenausis-80469012https://ch.linkedin.com/in/dr-gregory-l-kenausis-80469012https://ch.linkedin.com/in/dr-gregory-l-kenausis-80469012https://ch.linkedin.com/in/dr-gregory-l-kenausis-80469012https://ch.linkedin.com/in/dr-gregory-l-kenausis-80469012http://promisneurosciences.com/news/promis-neurosciences-announces-identification-multiple-product-candidates-targeting-alzheimers-disease/http://promisneurosciences.com/news/promis-neurosciences-announces-identification-multiple-product-candidates-targeting-alzheimers-disease/http://promisneurosciences.com/news/promis-neurosciences-announces-identification-multiple-product-candidates-targeting-alzheimers-disease/http://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdfhttp://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdfhttp://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdfhttp://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdfhttp://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdfhttp://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdfhttp://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdfhttp://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdfhttp://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdfhttp://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdfhttp://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdf -
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Management Team
Eugene Williams, Executive Chairman
Eugene Williams is a former SVP at Genzyme, with senior roles integrating commercialization, drug development,
and deal making. He is also an entrepreneur, as the founder and director of Adheris, which became the largest
company in the patient adherence area. He was previously a strategy consultant at Bain and Corporate Decisions Inc.
(a Bain Spin off, now part of Oliver Wyman), where he was co-Head of Healthcare and spent extensive time on
speeding and improving the drug development process and on commercialization strategies. Mr. Williams was most
recently the CEO of Dart Therapeutics, an Orphan Disease drug development company. Mr. Williams holds a B.A.
from Harvard University and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School.
Dr. Elliot Goldstein, President and CEO
Elliot Goldstein brings a unique track record in the clinical, regulatory and commercial development of new
pharmaceuticals. Dr. Goldstein began his career with Sandoz Pharmaceuticals (now Novartis), a fourteen-year period
on drug development in France, Basel, Switzerland Global Headquarters, including as Head of Clinical R&D in the
United States. He subsequently held positions as SVP of Strategic Product Development at SmithKline Beecham (now
GSK), CEO of British Biotech (Oxford, UK), Chief Operating Officer and Chief Medical Officer of Maxygen, and
President and CMO of a startup biotech devoted to development of biosimilar monoclonal antibodies. Dr. Goldstein
holds an M.D. from the University Aix-Marseille II, Marseille, France, and a B.Sc. from McGill University, Montreal.
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Scientific Team
Dr. Neil Cashman, Chief Scientific Officer and Co-founder
Dr. Cashman is a physician and scientist focused on neurodegenerative diseases. His first academic posting was at
Montreal Neurological Institute and Hospital of McGill University. From 1998 to 2005, he was the Diener Professor of
Neurodegenerative Diseases at the University of Toronto. In 2005, Professor Cashman moved to the University of
British Columbia, where he holds the Canada Research Chair in Neurodegeneration and Protein Misfolding Diseases,
and serves as the Director of the UBC ALS Centre. He has procured over $50 million in research grant funding from
the CIHR, CRC, NCE, NIH, and various corporations for his work involving protein misfolding and prion technologies.
He was awarded the Jonas Salk Prize for biomedical research in 2000, and was elected a Fellow of the Canadian
Academy of Health Sciences in 2008. He is recognized worldwide as one of the leading research scientists pioneering
the emerging fields of prion biology and protein misfolding diseases, in particular Alzheimers disease and
amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).
Steven Plotkin, Ph.D, Chief Physics Officer
Prof. Steven Plotkin is a theoretical and computational biophysicist whose research focuses on protein folding and
misfolding in neurodegenerative disease, protein evolution and cellular differentiation, and the molecular
mechanisms of cancer. He has been a professor at UBC in the Department of Physics and Astronomy since 2001,
where he was appointed as the Canada Research Chair in Theoretical Molecular Biophysics. He was an Alfred P. Sloan
Research Fellow in 2005-2006, a Killam Faculty Research Fellow in 2010, and is now an associate member of theGenome Sciences and Technology Program, the Bioinformatics Program, and the Institute for Applied Mathematics at
the University of British Columbia. Several of his publications have received the Faculty of 1000 designation, placing
them in the top 2% of published articles in biology and medicine.Plotkin is recognized internationally for his
fundamental contributions to the energy landscape theory of protein folding, and presents his research findings in
protein misfolding and neurodegeneration, and protein geometry and disorder as an invited speaker at several annual
conferences and symposia. His research is currently supported by grants from CIHR, NSERC, APRI, ALS-Canada, and
Compute Canada.
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Scientific Advisory Board (SAB)
Todd E. Golde, MD, PhD., Director of the Center for Translational Research in Neurodegenerative Disease at the University of
Florida where he directs a robust program of scientific discovery aimed at translating basic discoveries in neurodegenerative
disease into diagnostics and treatments for patients. Dr. Golde is co-chair of the SAB.
Neil R. Cashman, MD, Chief Science Officer at ProMIS Neurosciences and Professor of Medicine at the University of British
Columbia, where he holds the Canada Research Chair in Neurodegeneration and Protein Misfolding Diseases, and serves as
the Director of the UBC ALS Centre. Dr. Cashman is recognized as a pioneer in the field of prions and their role in
development of neurodegenerative diseases, in particular ALS and AD. Neil Cashman is co-chair of the SAB.
Lary C. Walker, PhD, Associate Professor of Neurology and Research Professor at Emory University Yerkes National Primate
Research Center. Lary Walkers research has been directed toward understanding the mechanisms by which the Alzheimer-
associated proteins Amyloid beta and tau form pathogenic assemblies in vivo and how these agents spread in the brain.
Business Advisory Board
Mara G. Aspinall, MBA, is a diagnostic industry pioneer. She is Executive Chairman of GenePeeks, a company leading a
paradigm shift at the intersection of personalized medicine and computational genomics with genetic testing. Mara is the
former President and CEO of Ventana Medical Systems, a division of Roche Group, a worldwide leader in the development
and commercialization of tissue-based cancer diagnostics.
Nigel Burns, PhD, has over 20 years experience in the biotech sector, in particular in the field of monoclonal antibodies for
the treatment of chronic disease. Nigel has held a series of industry leadership roles including Senior Vice President of
Cambridge Antibody Technology, and most recently, CEO and Founder of SweetSpot Therapeutics Ltd. Nigel was
entrepreneur-in-residence for Imperial Innovations and has served on multiple national and international scientific and
industry advisory boards and committees.
Michael Higgins, MBA, is currently an entrepreneur-in-residence at Polaris Partners. Previously at Genzyme, Mr. Higgins
held a variety of leadership roles, including Vice President of Corporate Finance and Vice President of Business
D l d i l d i h l i l b i i i l di C ll Th G Th d O h DiS d f d il 40