mu0010 –manpower planning and resourcing winter / november 2011
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MU0010 –Manpower Planning and Resourcing Winter / November 2011TRANSCRIPT
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Winter / November 2011
Master of Business Administration
Semester III
MU0010 –Manpower Planning and Resourcing - 4 Credits
Assignment Set- 1 (60 Marks)
Note: Each Question carries 10 marks. Answer all the questions.
Q1.What are the benefits of manpower demand forecasting?
Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that
consumers will purchase. Demand forecasting involves techniques including both informal
methods, such as educated guesses, and quantitative methods, such as the use of historical sales
data or current data from test markets. Demand forecasting may be used in
makingpricing decisions, in assessing future capacity requirements, or in making decisions on
whether to enter a new market
Determination of the demand forecasts is done through the following steps:
• Determine the use of the forecast
• Select the items to be forecast
• Determine the time horizon of the forecast
• Select the forecasting model(s)
• Gather the data
• Make the forecast
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• Validate and implement results
The time horizon of the forecast is classified as follows:
Description Forecast Horizon
Short-range Medium-range Long-range
Duration Usually less than 3
months, maximum of
1 year
3 months to 3 years More than 3 years
Applicability Job scheduling,
worker assignments
Sales and production
planning, budgeting
New product
development, facilities
planning
How is demand forecast determined?
There are two approaches to determine demand forecast – (1) the qualitative approach, (2) the
quantitative approach. The comparison of these two approaches is shown below:
Description Qualitative Approach Quantitative Approach
Applicability Used when situation is vague &
little data exist (e.g., new products
and technologies)
Used when situation is stable &
historical data exist
(e.g. existing products, current
technology)
Considerations Involves intuition and experience Involves mathematical techniques
Techniques Jury of executive opinion
Sales force composite
Time series models
Causal models
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Delphi method
Consumer market survey
Qualitative Forecasting Methods
Your company may wish to try any of the qualitative forecasting methods below if you do not
have historical data on your products' sales.
Qualitative Method Description
Jury of executive opinion The opinions of a small group of high-level managers are
pooled and together they estimate demand. The group uses
their managerial experience, and in some cases, combines the
results of statistical models.
Sales force composite Each salesperson (for example for a territorial coverage) is
asked to project their sales. Since the salesperson is the one
closest to the marketplace, he has the capacity to know what
the customer wants. These projections are then combined at
the municipal, provincial and regional levels.
Delphi method A panel of experts is identified where an expert could be a
decision maker, an ordinary employee, or an industry expert.
Each of them will be asked individually for their estimate of
the demand. An iterative process is conducted until the
experts have reached a consensus.
Consumer market survey The customers are asked about their purchasing plans and
their projected buying behavior. A large number of
respondents is needed here to be able to generalize certain
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results.
Quantitative Forecasting Methods
There are two forecasting models here – (1) the time series model and (2) the causal model. A
time series is a s et of evenly spaced numerical data and is o btained by observing responses at
regular time periods. In the time series model , the forecast is based only on past values and
assumes that factors that influence the past, the present and the future sales of your products will
continue.
On the other hand, t he causal model uses a mathematical technique known as the regression
analysis that relates a dependent variable (for example, demand) to an independent variable (for
example, price, advertisement, etc.) in the form of a linear equation. The time series forecasting
methods are described below:
Time Series
Forecasting
Method
Description
Naïve Approach Assumes that demand in the next period is the same as demand
inmost recent period; demand pattern may not always be that stable
For example:
If July sales were 50, then Augusts sales will also be 50
Time Series
Forecasting
Method
Description
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Moving Averages
(MA)
MA is a series of arithmetic means and is used if little or no trend is
present in the data; provides an overall impression of data over time
A simple moving average uses average demand for a fixed sequence
of periods and is good for stable demand with no pronounced
behavioral patterns.
Equation:
F 4 = [D 1 + D2 + D3] / 4
F – forecast, D – Demand, No. – Period
(see illustrative example – simple moving average)
A weighted moving average adjusts the moving average method to
reflect fluctuations more closely by assigning weights to the most
recent data, meaning, that the older data is usually less important.
The weights are based on intuition and lie between 0 and 1 for a total
of 1.0
Equation:
WMA 4 = (W) (D3) + (W) (D2) + (W) (D1)
WMA – Weighted moving average, W – Weight, D – Demand, No.
– Period
(see illustrative example – weighted moving average)
Exponential
Smoothing
The exponential smoothing is an averaging method that reacts more
strongly to recent changes in demand by assigning a smoothing
constant to the most recent data more strongly; useful if recent
changes in data are the results of actual change (e.g., seasonal
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pattern) instead of just random fluctuations
F t + 1 = a D t + (1 - a ) F t
Where
F t + 1 = the forecast for the next period
D t = actual demand in the present period
F t = the previously determined forecast for the present period
• = a weighting factor referred to as the smoothing constant
(see illustrative example – exponential smoothing)
Time Series
Decomposition
The time series decomposition adjusts the seasonality by multiplying
the normal forecast by a seasonal factor
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Q2.Distinguish between internal and external sources of recruitment.
Q3.Explain the different levels of talent engagement.
Q4.How does Human Resource Accounting help the organization in its effort for development of employees?
Q5.Describe knowledge management.
Q6.Ms. Lalita Singh has joined Triumphant India Private Limited. As an HR Manager, how would you prepare an induction programme for her?
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Winter / November 2011
Master of Business Administration
Semester III
MU0010 –Manpower Planning and Resourcing - 4 Credits
Assignment Set- 2 (60 Marks)
Note: Each Question carries 10 marks. Answer all the questions.
Q1.What are the steps involved in manpower planning?
Man power planning or human resource planning is ³the process by which
management determines how an organization should move from the current
manpower to the desired manpower position. Through planning, a management
strives to have the right number and the right kind of people at the right place,
to do things which result in both individual and the organization receiving the
maximum long range benefit.
Coleman has defined human resource or manpower planning as ³the process of
determining manpower requireme nts and the means for meeting those
requirements in order to carry out the integrated plan of the organization.´
Stainer defines manpower planning as ³strategy for the acquisition, utilization,
improvement, and preservation of an enterprise¶s human resour ces. It relates to
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establishing job specifications or the quantitative requirements of jobs
determining the number of personnel required and developing sources of
manpower.
According to Wickstrom, manpower planning consists a series of activities ie
1. forecasting future manpower requirements
2. making an inventory of present manpower resources
3. anticipating manpower problems by projecting present resources into the future
and comparing them with the forecast of requirements to determine their
adequacy, both quantitatively and qualitatively
4. planning recruitment selection, training, development, utilization, transfer, promotion
motivation and compensation to ensure that future manpower requirements are properly met
thus, it will be noted that manpower planning consists in projecting future
manpower requirements and development manpower plans for the
implementation of the projections.
Manpower planning is a double edges sword. If used properly, it leads to the
maximum utilization of human resources, re duces excessive labor turnover and
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high absenteeism, improves productivity and aids in achieving organizational
goals. If not used properly, it leads to disruption in the flow of work, lower
production, less job satisfaction, high cost of production and co nstant headaches
for management personnel. Therefore, for the success of an enterprise,
manpower planning is very important function.
The objective of manpower planning is to maintain and improve the
organizations ability to achieve its goal by developing strategies that will
contribute its optimum contribution of human resources. Manpower plan ning is
the responsibility of both line and staff manager. The line management is
responsible to give estimate of manpower requirements and staff manager is
responsible to take actions on selection and recruitment in association with line
manager who needs the man power.
PROCESS OF MANPOWER PLANNING
It is a multi-step process as follows
‡Deciding goals and objectives
‡Estimating future organizational structure and manpower requirements
‡Auditing human resources
‡Planning job requirements and job descriptions
‡And developing human resource plan
DECIDING OBJECTIVES
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In effect the main purpose is one of matching or fitting employee abilities to
enterprise requirements, with an emphasis on future instead of present
arrangements. The ultimate mission or purpose is to relate future human
resources to future enterprise needs so as to maximize the future return on
investment in human resources.
ESTIMATING
THE
FUTURE
ORGANIZATIONAL
STRUCTURE
OR
FORECASTING THE MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS.
The management must estimate the structure of the organization at a given point
of time. The number and type of employees needed have to be determined.
Many environmental factors affect this determination. They include business
forecasts, expansion, growth, design, structural changes,
management philosophy, government policy , product and human mix and
competition
Forecasting is necessary because,
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‡The eventualities and contingencies of general economic business cycles (such
as inflation, wages, prices, costs and raw material supplies) have an influence
on the short range and long run plans of all organizations.
‡An expansion following enlargement and growth in business involves the use of
additional machineries and personnel and a reallocation of facilities, all of
which call for advance planning of human resources.
‡Changes in management philosophies and leadership styles.
‡The use of mechanical technology necessitate changes in the skills of
workers as well as a change in the number of employees needed.
After estimating what future organization structure should be, the next step is to
draw up the requirements of manpower, both for existing and new vacancies.
For this requirement details should be obtained from various departments.
Vacancies occurring in any department should be notified in writing to the
personnel department, stating clearly the number of vacancies to be fi lled
category or job wise, their qualification and experience and the reasons for
acquisition. A statement of duties, type of jobs, pay scale and previous
experience should also be made.
In determining the requirements of manpower, the expected losses whi ch are
likely to occur through labor turnover - quits, retirement, death, transfers,
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promotions, demotions, dismissals. Disability, resignations, lay -offs, and other
separations ± should be taken into account. Additional resources are gained
through new employment of personnel, promotions, transfers etc.
After making all adjustments, the real shortages and surplus may be found off. If a shortage is
there, efforts are made to fill up the vacancies. If there is surplus deal it by transfers,
retrenchments etc.
AUDITING HUMAN RESOURCES
Once the future requirement is estimated the next step is to determine the
present supply of manpower resources. This is done through what is called³skills inventory´
which contain data about each employees skills, abilities,
work preference which indicated his overall value to the company. Other data
pertaining his performance ratings and superior¶s evaluation may also be
tabulated and all these are fed into computers. These details are required by
personnel departments for transfers, promotions and manpower requirement
filling.
JOB ANLYSIS
After having decided how many persons would be needed, it is necessary to
prepare job analysis, which records details of training, skills, qualification,
abilities, experience and responsib ilities. Etc which are needed for the job. Job
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analysis include the preparation of job descriptions and job specifications.
DEVELOPING MANPOWER PLAN
This consists in finding out the sources of labor supply with a view to making
an effective use of these factors.
The best policy which is followed by most organizations is to fill up higher vacancies by
promotion and lower level positions by recruitment from labor market. A labor market is a
geographical area from which employees recruit
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Q2.What are the major hindrances that one encounters while carrying out manpower planning?
Q3.Describe the different types of selection interviews.
Q4.What benefits does an organization get out by setting up an academy?
Q5.Describe the major approaches of talent development.
Q6.Mr. Aravind works at K&D Company. Recently two fellow team members were shifted to
another team and their work was handed over to him. This affected his performance and also left
him dissatisfied. Finally, he forwarded his resignation letter to the HR Department. The HR
Manager decided to conduct an exit interview with Mr. Aravind. What questions do you think
that the HR manager would want to ask Mr.Aravind?
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