msp challenge 2050

Noordzee 2050gebiedsagenda

gaming the future of the North Sea

Lodewijk Abspoel (IenM)

6 mei 2014 – GEO space

2 Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment

Ruimtelijk economische agenda Noordzee 2050 – aan adaptieve benadering

“Werken vanuit de potentie van de zee zelf – conform advies RLI ‘Een zee van mogelijkheden’ .” M. Schultz van Haegen 24.04.2013© RWS - 2012

Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment3

Beleidsmatige benadering Maritieme Ruimtelijke ontwikkeling

denk groot

denk lange termijn

denk systemen

denk in mensen

scheidt feit en fictie denk land-zee interacties

denk ruimtelijk


Q2 - MSP – challenge # 1 for the process:establish co-operation and create a common language

© www.dekrachtvanbeeld.nl - 2013


Proces gebiedsagenda Noordzee 2050• Visie 2050 • EU “blue growth agenda”• Potentie van de zee centraal• Ambitie• Opgaven• Maatregelen

• Co productie IenM – EZ• Verhalend onderzoek• Ontwerpend onderzoek• foto 2014 – 2023/2027 – outlook 2050• Identificeren “strategische kloof” voor beleid• Beleidskeuzes ruimtelijke ontwikkeling: NWPII 2015-2021


Thema’s gebiedsagenda Noordzee 2050• Energievoorziening• Voedsel• Beleving (toerisme, recreatie, cultuur)• Natuur• Transport/bereikbaarheid

• Verbinding gebiedsagenda’s land met zee• “Topsector Noordzee” • Verbinden lange termijn met hier en nu• Agenda internationaal


Creatief multi-disciplinair interactief proces

Scheepvaart http://vimeo.com/77293754

Wierenkweek http://vimeo.com/77296842

Het verhaal in woord en kaartbeeld

http://vimeo.com/77293754

http://vimeo.com/77296842

8

Potentiekaart windenergie op zee Windspeed scenario’s 93 GW (in the deep) and 135 GW (grand design) by 2030

OSW – spatial priorityOSW – “cross border plan”

Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment

9

Combined spatial map southern North Sea (2010)


10 April 12, 2023Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment

Verdringingseffecten en kruisend verkeer

11

Q3. bringing together the necessary data and combining information, facts, figures, opinions and establish of maps to grasp the bigger picture…


Note: for illustration purposes only - not for navigation, not for policy making, not for maritime spatial planning, not for marine planning


Geïdentificeerde beleidsopgaven voor de agenda

• Energietransitie – inclusief getijde- en golfenergie, diepe geothermie, hergebruik bestaande leidingen, power2gas, Noordzee grid i.r.t. opgave wind op zee (4.450 MW in 2023);

• Building with Nature – naast beschermen en ombuigen impact van gebruikers; de veerkracht van het systeem vergroten – mede t.b.v. voedselvoorziening;

• Multifunctioneel gebruik van de ruimte op zee – prikkels inbouwen en gebieden “bestempelen” (MKBA);

• De zee als exportproduct – technologie, kennis en beleid incl cross-overs topsectoren (vb energie uit water)

• Verbinding met land – toerisme, recreatie, natuur, cultuur en bestuur.


De missing links 2050 – Maritiem

• Scheepvaart: de route rond de noord, havens van de toekomst (MVIII), short sea, geulen,

• verkeersknooppunten op zee i.r.t. o.a. energiegebieden

• Enhanced-navigation• Radardekking en SAR• Recreatievaart (AIS/chip)• Kabels/leidingen en opruimplicht• Internationale samenwerking –

(beleids)export?• VTS buiten 12 mijlszone / sturen vanaf de wal –

vrijheid van navigatie• Geomorfologie: LAN – diepten, stroming,

sediment• Werkeilanden op zee• Brandstof van de toekomst (LNG?)


De missing links 2050 – Energie

• Gecombineerde milieueffecten 90 GW windenergie op totale Noordzee?

• Nieuwe generatie windturbines op zee na 2040?

• Energie uit water m.b.v. getijdenturbines en golfslagenergie bij lage stroomsnelheden (<2m/s) en golven?

• Energiegebieden met een combi van productiemethoden;

• Power-2-gas;• Tempo, locaties en wel/geen

bovenwaterplatforms voor olie en gas;• Enhanced oil recovery technieken en CCS;• Ontwikkeling smart grid;• Diepe geothermie (op zee).


Maritime Spatial Planning – policy toolPolitics

Legal

Content

Finance

Communication

Innovation

Think others

Think eco-systems

Think long term

Think big

Licence

to operate &

to growThink spatial

Create common language

Q3. bringing together the necessary data and combining information, facts, figures, opinions

16

• Collect existing data and information within government agencies (on shipping, energy, fishing, environment, cultural heritage etc etc)

• Combine GIS data• Verify (internationally) with stakeholders to

enhance understanding and create common language and insight

• In case of new acitivities/change of location of activities: make Strategic Environment Assessment

• Public and cross border consultation


Dank voor het luisteren

Tijd voor discussie en vragen

[email protected]

Poster Birds of the North Sea – co production with Vogelbescherming

18Challenge the future

Marine Spatial Planning Challenge 2050

© Dr. Igor Mayer i.s.mayer@tudelftnl

Faculty Technology, Policy and Management (TPM) & Signature Games

Delft University of technology, The Netherlands

mailto:[email protected]


References

• Mayer, I. S., Zhou, Q., Lo, J., Abspoel, L., Keijser, X., Olsen, E., … Kannen, A. (2012). Integrated ,

Ecosystem-based Marine Spatial Planning: First Results from International Simulation-Game

Experiment. In Third International Engineering Systems Symposium CESUN 2012, Delft University of

Technology, 18-20 June 2012 (pp. 18–20). Delft, The Netherlands: IEEE.

• Mayer, I. S., Zhou, Q., Lo, J., Abspoel, L., Keijser, X., Olsen, E., … Kannen, A. (2013). Integrated,

Ecosystem-based Marine Spatial Planning: Design and Results of a Game-based Quasi-Experiment.

Ocean and Coastal Management, 82, 7–26. doi:dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.04.006

• Zhou, Q. (2014). The Princess in the Castle Challenging Serious Game Play for Integrated Policy

Analysis and Planning. PhD thesis. TU Delft.


The 2011 edition

Features

• Played in Lisbon 2011, Leeuwarden, 2012 & Reykjavik 2013

• Four countries around Sea of Colours

• Based upon Kattegat but changed

• 60-80 players

• Minimum of 8 hours play

• Planner roles with eight stakeholder groups

• Simplified data

• Digital drawing tool

• 60 layers of map information

• Use: learning, training, collaboration

• Limitations:

• great event effort; large facilitation effort

• no simulation;

• not networked;

• no underlying performance model;

• case not changeable.


The 2050 ‘North Sea’ edition

Features• Launched in Delft, February 2014

• Flexible number of countries: 4 - 8

• Based on accurate data of North Sea

• 18-40 players

• Four to forty (interrupted) hours of play

• All players in a country are planners

• Realistic data and maps

• Simulation, foodweb calculations

• 2D to 3D zooming

• Networked

• Performance indicators, dashboard, analytics

• Flexible number of layers of map information

• Wider use: citizen and stakeholder participation, learning,

training, policy exploration, design and scenario

development, etc.

• Future: interconnection with GIS; customization, train the

trainer; dissemination (website, licensing, trailer).


Objective of the Game

The objective of the simulation-game is to significantly contribute to policy

learning and international planning practices with regard to integrated (eco-

based) Marine Spatial Planning. The game makes players try, experience

failure and success, and reflect upon:

• How socio-technical complexity affects MSP

• The long term consequences of short term decisions

• The interdependencies of sectorial policies

• The regulatory principles and institutional frameworks of MSP

• The (in) effective planning practices of MSP

• Cross national consultation and coordination

• The use of science, knowledge, data, methods in MSP


Marine areas as socio-technical systems

Stressors( indicators)

Pressures

© Q

iqi Zhou, 2

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Marine Geo & Eco-system

Human act ivit ies in Marine

areas


Marine areas as complex socio-technical system: feedback, delays, interaction effects

Cumulat ive interact ions of human act ivit ies

St ressors( indicators)

Pressures

Delay

Delay

Delay

© Q

iqi Zhou, 2

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Marine Geo & Eco-system

Human act ivit ies in Marine

areas

Complex interact ions ( food chain etc.)


Socio-technical complexity causes institutional fragmentation: sectors, disciplines, departments, countries

Geo-system Eco-system

Human act ivit ies

Activity 1Activity 2

Activity 4Activity 3

Dimension Two Dimension

One

Dimension Four

Dimension Three


Stressors

Pressures

Indirect

correlation

Delay

Delay

Delay

© Q

iqi Zhou, 2

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Dimension Five Activity


Tensions at the science-policy interface

Country A Country

B

Country D

Stakeholder 1

Science 1Science 2

Model 2

Research 1

© Q

iqi Zhou, 2

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Model 1 Stakeholder...

Ecosystem-based, integrated models

Stakeholder part icipat ion

The Science-Policy Interface


MSP as a complex, socio-technical planning problem

Integrated,Ecosystem-based

MSP

Stakeholder part icipat ion

Ecosystem-based, integrated models

Fragmentat ion of stakeholders,

values, interest in different countries

Fragmentat ion in disciplines,

models, theories


Geo-system Eco-system

© Q

iqi Zhou, 2

014

Pressures


What the game delivers…

A game is not a machine that can foretell the truth or deliver instant solutions.

Nevertheless, the game can deliver…

• Sketches, maps of certain marine planning areas for policy exploration

• Performance indicators of alternatives for scenario assessment

• Guidelines, procedures and principles for international consultation

• Data for further analysis, items for a research or policy agenda


Objective in the game

“Make a (draft) integrated Marine/Maritime Spatial Plan (MSP): define its

planning horizon, indicate the various spatial functions and present a limited set

of (inter)national policy guidelines that will enforce the MSP.” The policy report

(two pages) also includes a brief description of the process which was followed

and policy instruments which have been used.”

The approved MSP of each country and the process that led to it, will be

presented at the annual Regional Coloured Sea Convention (RCSC) on [end

game]

msp challenge 2050

Government & Nonprofit

verkeersknooppunten

zee als

zee zelf

environment note

environment scheepvaart

opgave wind op zee

cultuur en bestuur

woord en kaartbeeld