ms ivanka barashka - ‘re examining nato and russia relations: the role of verifiable missile...

Re-examining NATO-Russia RelationsT HE ROLE OF V ERIF IABLE M ISS ILE D EFENSET HE ROLE OF V ERIF IABLE M ISS ILE D EFENSE

T RANSPARENCY

Ivanka Barzashka

RUSI Missile Defense Conference

March 18, 2014

Outline

1. Why should NATO’s strategy for

BMD engagement with Russia

focus on transparency?focus on transparency?

2. What would a transparency

regime look like?

3. What are the challenges?

Why Transparency?

Renewed Cooperation

Data fusion center Sharing telemetry

Integrating Russian technology

Operations planning center

Joint BMD analysis Observing BMD tests

Joint satellite development

Options for “Cooperation”


Joint threat assessment

Reciprocal declarations of capability

Joint radar development Military exercises

Verification of capability

Early warning of missile launches






Joint Operational Response












Preserving Strategic Stability







We propose to develop a transparency regime based upon a regular exchange of information about the information about the current respective missile defence capabilities of NATO and Russia.Chicago Summit Declaration, May 2012

The disagreements still remain, but I agree, in general, with President Obama that what we must and certainly can must and certainly can do in this area is make all our actions more open and transparent.

President Vladimir Putin, July 2013

RUSSIAN PROPOSALS FOR MUTUALLY ACCEPTIBLE DECISIONS

9

CRITERIA LIST:

�technical performances of BMD components (interceptor’s speed, number of

interceptors, radar range, control system capabilities etc.),

�deployment sites,

�capabilities for interception of various types of BMs at boost, midcourse and terminal

phases of flight.

joint familiarization with European BMD deployment plans and its implications for the joint familiarization with European BMD deployment plans and its implications for the

relevant strategic deterrence capabilities

development of verification measures to assure security of strategic capabilities

legally binding agreements defining mutual obligations of the pertinent parties to deploy a European BMD system providing equal security to all

participants

Lessons

1. Transparency is a prerequisite to serious

cooperation with Russia

2. High level agreement that transparency is a good

thingthing

3. Characteristics of a mutually agreeable regime

a. Legally binding

b. Technical criteria

c. Verification mechanism

d. No limits to capability

Confrontation

How Could Transparency Work?

Objectives

Provide verifiable political and technical

guarantees that BMD:

• Does not threaten strategic stability• Does not threaten strategic stability

• Deployments correspond to stated

threat

Key Elements

• Reciprocal exchanges of information on

missile defense capability

• Verification measures: NTM and

inspections

• Verification measures: NTM and

inspections

• No limits to capability

Transparency Challenges

Verification

• BMD verification not comprehensively

explored

• Past proposals for BMD confidence-

building measures

• Past proposals for BMD confidence-

building measures

• Experience with nuclear and

conventional arms control

Reciprocity

• Same data sharing and verification

requirements

• Asymmetry in BMD deployments• Asymmetry in BMD deployments

Offense-Defense

• Russian military developments

• Possible changes to deterrence postures

• Link BMD transparency to INF • Link BMD transparency to INF

compliance and non-deployment of

new nuclear-capable missiles in Europe

• Transparency should not jeapordize

BMD capability

Re-examining BMD Engagement with Russia

• Focus away from operational

coordination and toward a verifiable

transparency regime

Transparency is a pre-requisite to • Transparency is a pre-requisite to

serious cooperation

• Transparency can help prevent arms

races and de-escalate a crisis

ms ivanka barashka - ‘re examining nato and russia relations: the role of verifiable missile...

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