mrv in redd+: deforestation and forest degradation drivers
DESCRIPTION
This presentation was given by CIFOR scientist Louis Verchot on 28 November 2012 at a joint CIFOR and GOFC-GOLD (Global Observation of Forest Cover and Land Dynamics) UNFCCC COP18 side-event in Doha, Qatar.TRANSCRIPT
MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and Forest Degradation Drivers
Louis Verchot, Noriko Hosonuma, Veronique De Sy, Martin Herold, Ruth De Fries, Maria Brockhaus, Arild Angelsen, Erika Romijn
Importance of monitoring drivers
• Essential for REDD+ strategy and policy design
• Link to policy and implementation of REDD+ and broader development objectives
• Prioritize engagement with non-forest sectors
–> Requires resources and efforts additional to estimation and reporting of GHG emissions
–> Countries should integrate and combine capacity development efforts for monitoring drivers with on-going national forest monitoring for REDD+
Definitions
• Proximate/direct causes: human activities or immediate actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of carbon
Deforestation: commercial agriculture, subsistence agriculture, mining, infrastructure and urban expansion
Forest degradation: logging, fires, livestock grazing in forest, fuelwood collection and charcoal production
• Underlying/indirect causes: complex interactions of fundamental social, economic, political, cultural and technological processes that are often distant from their area of impact
An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers
• Country REDD+ readiness activities – first inventory of what countries identify as relevant and important drivers
• Methods: R-PIN, R-PP, a study on proximate drivers of deforestation of 25 tropical countries (Mathews et al., 2010), CIFOR country profiles and the UNFCCC national communications
• Nominal, ordinal or ratio-scale data for 46 non-Annex I countries (78% of total forest area in 2010)
• Countries have limited on the drivers at the national level and are only just beginning efforts
THINKING beyond the canopy
Changes of Deforestation Drivers: Important for assessing historical deforestation
Using national data from 46 countries: REDD-related data and
publications
Time
Phase1 Pre
Transition
Phase4 Post
Transition
Phase2 Early
Transition
Phase3 Late
Transition
Fo
rest
Co
ver
(%)
Classification of countries by forest transition phases
Pre Early Late Post
Forest transition phases
Distribution of 99 countries: Pre: 9, early: 48, late: 33, post: 10
Validation of the forest transition model
THINKING beyond the canopy
Deforestation/degradation drivers for each continent
-39%
-35%
-13%
-11%
-2%
-57%
-36%
-2% -4% -1%
-41%
-37%
-7%
-10%
-7%
26%
62%
4% 8%
70%
9%
17%
4%
67%
20%
6% 7%
Forest degradation driver Deforestation driver
AMERICA AFRICA ASIA
Deforestation
Degradation
THINKING beyond the canopy
Changes of Deforestation Drivers
Agriculture (commercial) is 45%, agriculture (local/subsistence) 38%, mining 7%,
infrastructure 8%, urban expansion 3% and only agriculture make up 83% of total
Ratio of mining is decreasing and urban expansion is relatively increasing over time
Deforested-area ratio of deforestation drivers
Deforested area
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
pre early late post
Urban expansion
Infrastructure
Mining
Agriculture(local-slash & burn)Agriculture(commercial)
km2
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
pre early late post
Distribution of 46 countries - Pre: 7, early: 23, late: 12, post: 4
(subsistence)
Indirect or underlying drivers
• Economic growth
– Based on export of primary commodities
• Population growth / Urban growth
• Demand for timber and agricultural products
• Countries (31 national REDD+ R-PPs):
– Weak forest sector governance and institutions, conflicting policies beyond forest sector and illegal activity (93%)
– Population growth (51%)
– Poverty and insecure tenure (both 48%)
Future
Forest carbon stock impact of different activities
Time
Car
bo
n s
tock
Pri
mar
y fo
rest
Deforestation
Agroforestry
Further disturbances: Prevented regrowth Fire/storm/pests
Human induced disturbance causing loss of forest: fire, clearing, selective extraction, …
Agriculture is the main deforestation driver (~ 80 %)
Major degradation drivers for LAC and Asia is logging (~70%)
Fuel-wood/charcoal are the main degradation drivers for Africa
Impact for monitoring: each deforestation/degradation process requires specific monitoring
Countries have limited data on drivers at the national level
Drivers of the “+” the carbon sinks are largely unknown
Conclusions from this study