moving out of aid dependency: reflections on ldc experience presented by dr. debapriya bhattacharya...
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Moving Out of Aid Dependency: Reflections on LDC Experience
Presented by
Dr. Debapriya BhattacharyaAmbassador & Permanent Representative
of Bangladesh to the WTO and UN Offices in Geneva
Presented at2nd Committee Panel Discussion
Organized by FFDO, Department of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations, New York16 November, 2007
Bhattacharya D. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: Reflections on LDC Experience
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Layout of Presentation1. Trends in Aid Dependency of LDCs2. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: The Bangladesh Experience3. Quality Aid Flow to End Aid Dependency
MDG and Role of Foreign Aid Paris Declaration and Aid Effectiveness PRSP and Aid Financing
4. New Sources of Development Finance5. Concluding Remarks
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1. Trends in Aid Dependency of LDCs/LICsAbsolute Amount of ODA Flow to Low Income
Countries
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Rising ODA to Low Income Countries since 2000. Aid to the group of 50 LDCs increased by 2004 to USD 24.9
billion. 53 LICs received USD 40 billion. In real terms, aid to LDCs actually decreased by 4.4 percent
between 2003 and 2004.
Source: World Development Indicators 2007
Bhattacharya D. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: Reflections on LDC Experience
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1. Trends in Aid DependencyNet Disbursement and Commitment of ODA to LDCs
Steady ODA flow between 1990 and 1995 Declining trend from 1996 to 2000 Drastic rise after 2000 and reached a peak in 2004 This is solely attributed to the rise in emergency
assistance and debt forgiveness grants
Source: The Least Developed Country Report 2007
Disbursement
Commitment
Bhattacharya D. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: Reflections on LDC Experience
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1. Trends in Aid DependencyODA As Share of GDP for Low Income Countries
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
ODA as a percentage of GDP of low income countries has declined sharply throughout the 1990s.
Share of ODA in GDP started to rise since 2000 and remained more or less stable till 2005
Afghanistan and Congo are the two extreme cases where real growth rate of net ODA during the period between 1999-2004 was 79.2 percent and 93% respectively.
Source: World Development Indicators 2007
Bhattacharya D. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: Reflections on LDC Experience
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1. Trends in Aid DependencyPer Capita Flow to LDCs
Per capita ODA flow followed declining trend from 1990 to 1999. Began to increase from 2000 and continued till 2003. Real ODA per capita disbursed to LDCs was actually 13.5
percent lower in 2000-2004 than in 1990-1994.
Source: The Least Developed Country Report 2007
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1. Trends in Aid Dependency
Net Disbursement and Commitments: Multilateral Donors
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1985
1990
2001
2002
2003
2004
Net Disbursement Commitment
Net Disbursemnet and Commitment: Bilateral
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
1985
1990
2001
2002
2003
2004
Net Disbursement Commitment
Gap between committed and disbursed ODA from multilateral donors widened in 2003 but converged in 2004.
The gap increased since 2003 in case of bilateral sources of ODA. Absorption problem, conditionality and burgeoning pipeline.
Source: The Least Developed Country Report 2007
Split between Multilateral and Bilateral Flow to LDCs
Bhattacharya D. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: Reflections on LDC Experience
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1. Trends in Aid DependencySplit between Loans and Grants to LDCs
Percentage of ODA Financed by Loans and Grants
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1992-1994 1999-2001 2002-2004
Grants
Loans
Share of grants in ODA has been increasing while share of loans followed a declining trend.
72% of the total external financing came in the form of grants between 2002 and 2004.
What about untying of grants?
Source: The Least Developed Country Report 2007
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1. Trends in Aid Dependency
The recent upsurge is driven by debt forgiveness grants and emergency assistance grants. (22.6 % and 27.9% in real terms between 1999 and 2004)
Share of technical cooperation to the total net ODA to LDCs averaged 22.6 percent in 2004, while net loan disbursements averaged only 17.3 percent.
Composition of ODA during 1992-95 and 2000-2003
Source: The Least Developed Country Report 2007
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1. Trends in Aid DependencyGrowth and Decline in Aid Flow by Country
Major ODA Recipients Among LDCs
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1985 1990 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mil
lio
n U
SD
Afghanistan
Angola
Bangladesh
Congo
Ethiopia
Mozambique
Tanzania
Zambia
Major change in ODA took place in Afghanistan (79%) and Democratic Republic of Congo (93%) between 1999 and 2004
Between 1999 and 2004, ODA inflows increased by 20 percent per annum in six LDCs namely Afghanistan, Burundi, The Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Sierra Leon and Sudan.
ODA to Comoros, Mauritiana, Myanmar and Bangladesh have been seeing a declining trend
Source: The Least Developed Country Report 2007
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1. Trends in Aid Dependency of LDCs/LICs
Recap Increasing trend in ODA flow in nominal term
since 2000. Per capita inflow also increased. No significant change in ODA flow in real terms Incremental inflow underwritten by surge in
emergency assistance and debt forgiveness Increased grant component, share of multilateral
unchanged. Skewed distribution of ODA flow favouring the
failing economies. Uncertain prospect about future flow.
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2. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: The Bangladesh Scenario
• ODA disbursement trend showed some volatility over the years and remained around $1.5 billion.
ODA
0
500
1000
1500
2000
FY
91
FY
92
FY
93
FY
94
FY
95
FY
96
FY
97
FY
98
FY
99
FY
00
FY
01
FY
02
FY
03
FY
04
FY
05
FY
06
Year
(Mil
US
D)
Source: Economic Review, MoF
ODA Commtiment & Disbursement
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Year
Disbursement Commitment
Source: Economic Review, MoF
• Divergence between committed and disbursed ODA persists over the years.
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2. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: The Bangladesh Scenario
Share of grants in total foreign financing is declining (from 46.86 in FY96 to 20.69 in FY07.
Share of loan increased from 53.14% in FY96 to 79.31 in FY07.
Share of Loans and Grants in Foreign Financing
0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Grants Loans
Bhattacharya D. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: Reflections on LDC Experience
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2. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: The Bangladesh Scenario
• The declining ODA inflow as percentage of GDP indicates declining aid dependency in Bangladesh.
• Parallel trends of increase in exports and remittance flow.• However, there are certain critical sectors which still need
ODA to implement development programmes.
02468
101214161820
199
0-91
199
1-92
199
2-93
199
3-94
199
4-95
199
5-96
FY
97
FY
98
FY
99
FY
00
FY
01
FY
02
FY
03
FY
04
FY
05
FY
06
FY
07
as
% o
f G
DP
Remitance Export ODA
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2. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: The Bangladesh Scenario
Major Sources of Remittance to Bangladesh (ml USD)
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
Saudi Arab UAE USA UK Malaysia
Highest amount ($1696.96 in FY06) of remittance earning comes from Saudi Arabia followed by the USA (760.69 in FY06).
The issues of market diversification and Mode 4 services negotiation.
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2. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: The Bangladesh Scenario
Export is concentrated in the EU (USD 6396.08 ml in FY07) and USA market ($3441.02 ml in FY 07). Export is also heavily dependent on the RMG sector (75%) Bangladesh’s GSP Utilization rate in EU is 77.90% DFQF for LDCs under WTO or AGOA parity for Asian LDCs
Country wise Export of Bangladesh (ml USD)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
USA UK GermanyFrance Belgium ItalyNetherlands Canada JapanOthers
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2. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: The Bangladesh Scenario
Share of Export by Destination in FY2007
52.52
28.26
11.66
3.75
2.380.22
1.21EU(25)
USA
Can
Jp
Aus
Ind
Oth
Bhattacharya D. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: Reflections on LDC Experience
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Bangladesh: From Aid to Trade Dependency
Items (as % of GDP) FY 1981 FY1991 FY 2001 FY 2005 FY2006 FY 2007
1. Export 3.66 5.55 13.52 14.42 17.42 17.98
2. Import 9.86 11.21 19.52 21.90 24.43 25.34
3. Remittance 1.91 2.47 3.94 6.41 7.96 8.83
4. ODA Disbursed 5.78 5.59 2.86 2.10 2.06 2.40
5. FDI (net) NA 0.08 1.15 1.29 1.12 1.12
Total (1-5) 21.22 24.89 40.99 46.12 52.98 55.67
• The relevant indicators suggest that Bangladesh has moved in the 1990s from Aid Dependency to Trade Dependency: Trade in manufactures and services
2. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: The Bangladesh Scenario
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Bangladesh: From Aid to Trade Dependency
2. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: The Bangladesh Scenario
Degree of Openness (X + M as % of GDP) 13.50 16.80 33.00 36.30 41.84 43.32
Extent of Globalisation 21.20 24.90 41.00 46.10 52.98 55.67
X as % of M 37.10 49.50 69.30 65.80 71.29 70.98
(X+R) as % of M 56.50 71.50 89.40 95.10 103.89 105.83
ODA as % of GDP 5.80 5.60 2.90 2.10 2.06 2.40
ODA As % of R 302.37 226.83 72.74 32.71 25.82 27.17
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2. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: The Bangladesh Scenario
• The importance of foreign resources in deficit financing is declining, but still provides substantial support.
• But the grant component has declined.• In the recent past Direct Budget Support has emerged as an
important component after SWAPs.
Share of Foreign resoources in Deficit Financing
0102030405060708090
FY
92
FY
93
FY
94
FY
95
FY
96
FY
97
FY
98
FY
99
FY
00
FY
01
FY
02
FY
03
FY
04
FY
05
FY
06
FY
07
Per
cen
tag
e
Bhattacharya D. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: Reflections on LDC Experience
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2. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: The Bangladesh Scenario
• Stagnating revenue-GDP ratio is not helping the aid dependency.• Need to broaden tax base to generate resources for financing development
budget.• Between FY1996 and FY2007, this ratio increased from 9.2 percent to 11.2
percent.
Revenue - GDP Ratio
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
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2. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: The Bangladesh Scenario
• ODA accounts for about 50% of Annual Development Programme. • ODA contribution continues remain significant for critical sectors: Health,
Education & Physical Infrastructure.• Between 1991 and 2005, public expenditure on education and health
increased both as shares of total government expenditure and GDP.
ODA Contribution in Development Projects
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Health Education Infrastructure andPower
Per
cen
tag
e
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08
Bhattacharya D. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: Reflections on LDC Experience
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2. Recap
Bangladesh is emerging as an LDC which has moved out of “extreme” aid dependency through generation of non-debt creating foreign exchange earnings (e.g. through exports and remittances by temporarily migrant workers). This has addressed the balance of payment problem.
However, flow of FDI had been subdued. Bangladesh is yet to fully explore new forms of development finance, but private-public partnership is finding place.
But due to low level of domestic resource generation Bangladesh still needs ODA to underwrite fiscal deficit.
Bangladesh’s moving out from acute aid dependency has not been rewarded with greater flow of good quality ODA.
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3. Quality Aid Flow to End Aid Dependency
MDG (2000) and Role of Foreign Aid Goal 8 calls for debt relief and increased bilateral and
multilateral development assistance, particularly for LDCs.
Funding still remains a major concern for MDG implementation.
Poor progress of development partners in providing 0.7% of their GNI as ODA by 2015.
Industrialized nations lag behind in meeting their target to double ODA to Africa by 2010.
ODA is expected to decline further in 2007 as debt relief continues
Political obstacles in Financing MDG
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3. Quality Aid Flow to End Aid Dependency
Paris (2005) Declaration and Aid Effectiveness: The progress in Paris Declaration will be measured by a
survey in 2008. The targets set in Paris declaration for 2010 seems
unreachable with the current state of ODA disbursement. Harmonization is still not in pursued by the development
partners on the ground. Recipient country policies and institutions need to be
right in order to improve quality of aid. More initiative from development partners required in
order to achieve full alignment with recipient’s policies.
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3. Quality Aid Flow to End Aid Dependency
PRSP (2000) and Implications for Foreign Aid• PRSP resulted from a donor driven process,
full ownership could not be ensured.• Resource envelope: makes it easier for the
development partners to plan for aid, but financing PRSP is not showing up.
• Discrepancy in aid flow recording between the recipient and development partners.
Bhattacharya D. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: Reflections on LDC Experience
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Foreign Financing Requirement for Bangladesh PRSP (as % of GDP)
Projected figures for foreign financing have proved to be over-optimistic.
Achieving downward revised foreign financing targets will also be challenging.
Fiscal Year PRSP Projection
Actual Disbursement
New Projection
FY 2005 1.8
FY 2006 2.5 1.5
FY 2007 2.5 1.6
FY 2008 2.6 2.0
FY 2009 2.6 1.8
FY 2010 1.7
3. Quality Aid Flow to End Aid Dependency
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4. Moving Out of Aid Dependency: New Forms of Development FinanceAlternative Traditional Forms
Better market access for manufactured and commodity exports
Improved market access for movement of natural persons.
Higher quality of FDI flow Enhanced domestic resource mobilization
effort.
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4. New Forms of Development Finance
Innovative New Forms Development of projects under private-public partnership. Borrowing from private banking system without public guarantee
generating equity financing from global capital market. A system of global pollution taxes could generate a triple dividend: a
better global environment, a second dividend as the environmental tax implies no efficiency loss nor a burden on employment and resources for world development.
Establishment of a Global Lottery in agreement with national lotteries.
Global Premium Bond (a savings instrument with a lottery ticket), along the lines practiced in Bangladesh, Ireland and the UK.
Measures to increase private donations for development.
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Thank you for your attention.