morning note phillip securities research pte ltd singapore...

16
MICA (P) 057/11/2011 Ref No: SGMN2012_0038 1 of 16 Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore Morning Note 27 February 2012 Market Commentary - STI: +0.33% to 2978 - MSCI Asia Pac ex-Japan: +0.38% - Euro Stoxx 50: +0.62% - S&P500: +0.17% to 1365.7 Oil is just shy of US$110/bbl, as geopolitical risk is on the rise. Iran has its exports to Europe sanctioned and financial institutions which deal with Iran will be sanctioned by the US. We watch with bated breathe if Israel will attack Iran. In our seminars, have said that oil is our favourite asset class right now: if the global economy is strong, oil will rise, if its weak, we will have QE3, and oil will rise, if we have conflict, oil will rise. The big picture case for an overweight on upstream oil stocks, and oil correlated stocks, is compelling (due diligence on other things like valuations, industry, etc. considered). Rising oil will do the global economy no good, of course. Market consensus is far too positive on the US which still faces slowing disposable income growth which will be under new pressure from rising oil. As the economy is on a fiscal crutch of about... US$1tr... about 80% of which will be withdrawn this year and next, we are warning clients of a potential undershoot of growth expectations by the second half of the year. Sticky inflation in Asia will be even more sticky, inhibiting a monetary policy response. The S&P500's advance on low volumes, waning momentum, flirting with its previous peak, risks a meaningful pullback. The STI may have already begun a pullback, but could try a gap fill to 3000. Nonetheless, barring immediate ''tail'' risks (e.g. disorderly euro exit, middle east conflict) the odd underlying story remains, equities face a win-win scenario over the short/medium term, and corrections will likely be used to add positions: if economy data is strong, stocks will of course rise; if economic data is weak, a correction will likely give way to a wave of liquidity and fiscal induced buying: (1) the Fed will consider QE3 if the US economy weakens, (2) China considers 'fine tuning' policy in 1q12 - expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited long term refinancing operations (3yrs) by the ECB could easily be expanded. For our larger trend market outlook, which is quite different, see Strategy 15 Feb 2012 . For our Singapore Sector Strategy please see: Sector Strategy 1st Feb 2012 . Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Source: Bloomberg STI - Index Members 4.4% 3.0% 1.9% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% -0.4% -0.6% -0.6% -0.8% -1.0% -1.3% -1.6% -2.6% -6.0% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% HK Land Capitaland Jardine Mat. ST Eng. Sembcorp Ind. SIA Eng. Genting SP Jardine Stra. Capitamalls Asia Starhub Singtel CDL F&N Sembcorp Mar. GLP Ltd DBS SGX Noble Ltd Keppel Corp. Ltd SPH OCBC NOL Ltd SIA Capitamall Trust Wilmar ComfortDelGro Olam Ltd UOB Golden Agri-R. Jardine C&C

Upload: others

Post on 29-Dec-2019

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

MICA (P) 057/11/2011 Ref No: SGMN2012_0038 1 of 16

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

Singapore

Morning Note

27 February 2012

Market Commentary - STI: +0.33% to 2978 - MSCI Asia Pac ex-Japan: +0.38% - Euro Stoxx 50: +0.62% - S&P500: +0.17% to 1365.7 Oil is just shy of US$110/bbl, as geopolitical risk is on the rise. Iran has its exports to Europe sanctioned and financial institutions which deal with Iran will be sanctioned by the US. We watch with bated breathe if Israel will attack Iran. In our seminars, have said that oil is our favourite asset class right now: if the global economy is strong, oil will rise, if its weak, we will have QE3, and oil will rise, if we have conflict, oil will rise. The big picture case for an overweight on upstream oil stocks, and oil correlated stocks, is compelling (due diligence on other things like valuations, industry, etc. considered). Rising oil will do the global economy no good, of course. Market consensus is far too positive on the US which still faces slowing disposable income growth which will be under new pressure from rising oil. As the economy is on a fiscal crutch of about... US$1tr... about 80% of which will be withdrawn this year and next, we are warning clients of a potential undershoot of growth expectations by the second half of the year. Sticky inflation in Asia will be even more sticky, inhibiting a monetary policy response. The S&P500's advance on low volumes, waning momentum, flirting with its previous peak, risks a meaningful pullback. The STI may have already begun a pullback, but could try a gap fill to 3000. Nonetheless, barring immediate ''tail'' risks (e.g. disorderly euro exit, middle east conflict) the odd underlying story remains, equities face a win-win scenario over the short/medium term, and corrections will likely be used to add positions: if economy data is strong, stocks will of course rise; if economic data is weak, a correction will likely give way to a wave of liquidity and fiscal induced buying: (1) the Fed will consider QE3 if the US economy weakens, (2) China considers 'fine tuning' policy in 1q12 - expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited long term refinancing operations (3yrs) by the ECB could easily be expanded. For our larger trend market outlook, which is quite different, see Strategy 15 Feb 2012. For our Singapore Sector Strategy please see: Sector Strategy 1st Feb 2012. Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

Source: Bloomberg

STI - Index Members

4.4% 3.0% 1.9%

1.6%

1.4%

1.3%

1.2%

1.2%

1.0%

0.7%

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

0.5%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

-0.4%

-0.6%

-0.6%

-0.8%

-1.0%

-1.3%

-1.6% -2.6%

-6.0%-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

HK Land

Capitaland

Jardine Mat.

ST E

ng.

Sem

bcorp Ind.

SIA

Eng.

Genting S

P

Jardine Stra.

Capitam

alls Asia

Starhub

Singtel

CD

L

F&N

Sem

bcorp Mar.

GLP

Ltd

DBS

SG

X

Noble Ltd

Keppel C

orp. Ltd

SPH

OC

BC

NO

L Ltd

SIA

Capitam

all Trust

Wilm

ar

Com

fortDelG

ro

Olam

Ltd

UO

B

Golden A

gri-R.

Jardine C&

C

Page 2: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

2 of 16

Fundamental Call SC Global Developments Ltd – Results (Bryan Go) Recommendation: Reduce Previous close: S$1.115 Fair value: S$1.00

4Q11 revenue $88.7mn (-56%y-y) due to lower progress recognitions, PATMI sank into red at -$18.6mn. Allowance for impairment of $25mn for Admore Park Has fewer buffers to cushion the slow sales progress Downgrade to Reduce with fair value lowered to $1.00

SUNPOWER Group – Results (Chan Wai Chee) Recommendation: BUY (Maintain) Previous close: S$0.250 Target Price: S$0.40 Fair value: S$0.280

4Q11 result is a mediocre bag of realism in numbers; and, a show of competitiveness in attitude. Previous target price/fair value hit on 8Feb/9Feb. RIM values it at $0.28 but fundamental-related price setting suggests a more aggressive target. Maintain BUY with revised target price of $0.40.

Sino Grandness Food Industry Group Limited – Results (Lee Kok Joo) Recommendation: Accumulate Previous close: $0.40 Target price: $0.45

FY2011 revenue ↑ 58.1%, net profit ↑ 29.4% Strong growth, but below expectations Reduce estimates to conservative terms Reduce to accumulate with target price of S$0.45

Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

Page 3: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

3 of 16

Company Results

Revenue Net Profit S/N Company Name Q/HY/FY Currency,

Units Current Previous Change (%) Current Previous Change

(%) 1. Pan Pacific Hotels Grp Ltd FY S$’000 358,213 324,242 10 79,367 55,220 44 2. Memtech International Ltd FY US$’000 154,715 134,237 15.3 6,212 11,214 (44.6) 3. Del Monte Pacific Ltd FY US$’000 425,235 378,623 12.3 27,441 15,809 73.6

4. Teckwah Industrial Corp Ltd FY S$’000 173,216 154,361 12.2 12,327 12,509 (1.5)

5. AEI Corporation Ltd FY S$’000 57,394 56,438 1.7 13 4,167 (99.7) 6. Interra Resources Ltd FY US$’000 24,825 14,854 67 8,890 1,710 420

7. Unified Communications Holding Ltd FY S$’000 13,947 18,223 (23) 2,175 2,472 (12)

8. UOL Group Ltd FY S$’000 1,960,234 1,349,057 45 782,830 825,484 (5) 9. Lee Metal Group Ltd FY S$’000 773,556 831,520 (7) 22,582 26,556 (15)

10. Breadtalk Group Ltd FY S$’000 365,904 302,888 20.8 11,757 11,168 5.3 11. SMB United Ltd FY S$’000 265,724 229,525 15.8 19,861 17,689 12.3

12. Design Studio Furniture MFR Ltd FY S$’000 93,222 107,970 (13.7) 15,257 19,617 (22.2)

13. Leeden Ltd FY S$’000 184,949 191,470 (3.4) 8,967 11,839 (24.3)

14. Pharmesis International Ltd FY RMB’000 60,999 85,270 (28.5) (19,396) (798) 2330.6

15. Venture Corp Ltd FY S$’Mil 2,432 2,676 (9.1) 156 188 (16.9) 16. Heeton Holdings Ltd FY S$’000 82,500 46,743 76.5 25,499 21,563 18.3 17. Enviro-Hub Holdings Ltd FY S$’000 77,649 78,162 (1) 2,896 1,238 134 18. Koon Holdings Ltd FY S$’000 88,055 74,818 17.7 7,533 12,798 (41.1) 19. Juken Technology Ltd FY S$’000 79,778 76,448 4 3,082 9,691 (68) 20. Carriernet Global Ltd FY S$’000 64,645 30,003 115 7,536 (2,624) N.M. 21. San Teh Ltd FY S$’000 26,747 30,747 (13.01) 93,361 (38,193) N.M. 22. CNA Group Ltd FY S$’000 100,084 83,289 20.2 2,129 (26,474) N.M. 23. Soon Lian Holdings Ltd FY S$’000 21,639 25,821 (16.2) 614 2,806 (78.1) 24. ITE Electric Co Ltd FY S$’000 15,990 17,311 (8) (192) 997 N.M.

25. TREK 2000 International Ltd FY US$’000 86,149 78,503 9.74 1,976 3,224 (38.71)

26. ES Group (Holdings) Ltd FY S$’000 47,119 41,132 14.6 4,500 1,261 256.9 27. Cityneon Holdings Ltd FY S$’000 77,381 87,122 (11.2) 515 4,635 (88.9)

28. China Taisan Tech Group Holdings Ltd FY RMB’000 812,597 1,357,430 (40.1) 73,278 252,046 (70.9)

29. Sunmoon Food Company Ltd FY S$’000 30,858 36,024 (14.3) 770 939 (18)

30. Beng Kuang Marine Ltd FY S$’000 145,433 78,488 85 3,680 2,685 37 31. Hotel Royal Ltd FY S$’000 48,807 39,951 22.2 5,890 5,048 16.7 32. IFS Capital Ltd FY S$’000 16,911 19,125 (11.6) 7,703 7,872 (2.1) 33. Kreuz Holdings Ltd FY US$’000 153,800 54,551 181.9 26,613 8,866 200.2 34. AA Group Holdings Ltd FY S$’000 14,850 18,263 (18.69) (475) 200 (337.5)

35. SC Global Developments Ltd FY S$’000 769,079 743,177 3 136,697 108,444 26

36. JLJ Holdings Ltd FY S$’000 55,649 64,046 (13.1) 142 2,889 (95.1)

37. Sri Trang Agro-Industry PCL FY Baht’Mil 133,704 83,845 60 1,329 3,841 (65)

38. Telechoice International Ltd FY S$’000 389,579 327,455 19 7,000 12,450 (43.8)

39. Singapore Medical Group Ltd FY S$’000 31,320 34,847 (10.1) (1,080) 3,009 (135.9)

40. Metal Component Engineering Ltd FY S$’000 68,616 76,402 (10.2) (2,322) (1,185) 95.9

41. HL Global Enterprises Ltd FY S$’000 31,236 36,779 (15.1) (5,946) (2,278) 161 42. UE E&C Ltd FY S$’000 370,795 351,094 6 64,679 31,256 107 43. Matex International Ltd FY S$’000 33,339 39,256 (15.1) (8,700) (6,912) 25.9

44. Advanced Systems Automation FY S$’000 29,411 27,996 5 665 505 32

45. ASTI Holdings Ltd FY S$’000 405,471 426,873 (5) 3,754 14,675 (74) Source: SGX Masnet

Page 4: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

4 of 16

Company Highlights CH Offshore Ltd announced that that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Garo Pte Ltd ,will be proceeding with the sale of the vessel, the “Coral” to PT Bahtera Nusantara Indonesia .On completion of the disposal of the vessel, the group will realise a gain of approximately US$3.85 million. (S$0.375, -S$0.005) SITRA Holdings (International) Ltd announced that its consolidated results for the year ended 31 December 2011 are expected to show a loss. Due to drop in sales across the global market and losses from impairment of inventories recognized for the company’s subsidiary in Indonesia. (S$0.078, +S$0.003) Source: SGX Masnet

Page 5: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

5 of 16

FSSTI 2,978.08 +0.33% 12,982.95 -0.01%

8.38 21,406.86 +0.12%

78.43 +0.04% 1,772.45 +0.17%

109.49 +1.86% 1.976 -0.02%Crude oil US Treasury 10yr Yield

HSIFSSTI (P/E)

Dollar Index Gold

DJI

Source: Bloomberg

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

26000Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

5

7

9

11

13

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

72

74

76

78

80

82

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

1200

1350

1500

1650

1800

1950

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

70

80

90

100

110

120Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Page 6: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

6 of 16

Phillip Securities Research - Singapore Stocks Coverage

Company Analyst Rating Date of Last Report

Target Price (S$)

Current Price (S$)

Upside to Target Price

(%)

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD Magdalene Choong Neutral M 13-Feb-12 14.500 14.160 2.4%

OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP Magdalene Choong Neutral M 21-Feb-12 8.000 8.990 -11.0%

UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD Magdalene Choong Neutral U 24-Feb-12 17.500 18.110 -3.4%

GENTING SINGAPORE PLC Magdalene Choong Neutral M 11-Nov-11 1.590 1.635 -2.8%

SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LTD Magdalene Choong Buy M 18-Oct-11 8.450 7.160 18.0%

COMFORTDELGRO CORP LTD Derrick Heng Buy M 14-Feb-12 1.660 1.510 9.9%

SMRT CORP LTD Derrick Heng Sell M 1-Feb-12 1.380 1.740 -20.7%

NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES LTD Derrick Heng Reduce M 23-Feb-12 1.240 1.340 -7.5%

SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD Derrick Heng Accumulate U 3-Feb-12 11.300 10.700 5.6%

TIGER AIRWAYS HOLDINGS LTD Derrick Heng Reduce D 31-Jan-12 0.580 0.820 -29.3%

M1 LTD Derrick Heng Reduce D 17-Jan-12 2.360 2.460 -4.1%

SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD Derrick Heng Accumulate D 14-Feb-12 3.310 3.120 6.1%

STARHUB LTD Derrick Heng Neutral M 3-Feb-12 2.900 2.920 -0.7%

SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD Derrick Heng Buy M 1-Feb-12 4.840 3.770 28.4%

SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING Derrick Heng Accumulate M 24-Feb-12 3.370 3.130 7.7%

SATS LTD Derrick Heng Buy M 8-Feb-12 2.760 2.450 12.7%

COSCO CORP SINGAPORE LTD Nicholas Low Reduce U 24-Feb-12 1.000 1.210 -17.4%

SEMBCORP MARINE LTD Nicholas Low Buy U 24-Feb-12 6.100 5.260 16.0%

SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD Nicholas Low Buy M 4-Nov-11 5.180 5.170 0.2%

KEPPEL CORP LTD Nicholas Low Accumulate M 27-Jan-12 11.680 10.930 6.9%

GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD Nicholas Low Buy M 5-Dec-11 0.795 0.750 6.0%

WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LTD Nicholas Low Reduce D 23-Feb-12 5.500 5.120 7.4%

CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HLDGS Lee Kok Joo Buy M 9-Nov-11 0.290 0.250 16.0%

FORELAND FABRICTECH HOLDINGS Lee Kok Joo Buy M 15-Feb-12 0.160 0.123 30.1%

SINO GRANDNESS FOOD INDUSTRY Lee Kok Joo Accumulate D 24-Feb-12 0.450 0.400 12.5%

ZIWO HOLDINGS LTD Lee Kok Joo Sell M 21-Feb-12 0.095 0.137 -30.7%

COMBINE WILL INTERNATIONAL H Chan Wai Chee Buy U 14-Feb-12 1.350 0.900 50.0%

HU AN CABLE HOLDINGS LTD Chan Wai Chee Buy M 6-Dec-11 0.360 0.153 135.3%

SUNPOWER GROUP LTD Chan Wai Chee Buy M 27-Feb-12 .40 0.250 60.0%

CAPITAMALLS ASIA LTD Bryan Go Buy M 13-Feb-12 1.770 1.565 13.1%

HO BEE INVESTMENT LTD Bryan Go Neutral M 10-Nov-11 1.430 1.330 7.5%

KEPPEL LAND LTD Bryan Go Neutral D 20-Jan-12 2.790 3.470 -19.6%

OVERSEAS UNION ENTERPRISE Bryan Go Accumulate D 23-Feb-12 2.830 2.510 12.7%

SC GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS LTD Bryan Go Reduce D 27-Feb-12 1.500 1.115 34.5%

CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS Travis Seah Neutral M 1-Feb-12 1.530 1.715 -10.8%

PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE Travis Seah Accumulate U 30-Jan-12 1.880 1.770 6.2%

SABANA SHARIAH COMP IND REIT Travis Seah Buy M 25-Jan-12 1.050 0.930 12.9%

US Stocks Coverage

Company Analyst Rating Date of Last Report

Target Price (US$)

Current Price (US$)

Upside to Target Price

(%)

BANK OF AMERICA CORP Magdalene Choong Neutral M 21-Oct-11 - 7.880 -

CITIGROUP INC Magdalene Choong Neutral D 19-Oct-11 - 32.350 -

LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP Magdalene Choong Buy M 28-Oct-11 - 53.350 -

MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL Magdalene Choong Buy M 4-Nov-11 - 14.000 -

Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

Page 7: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

7 of 16

Director / Substantial Shareholders’ Transactions Company Substantial Shareholder / Director From (%) To (%) Hyflux Ltd Matthews International Capital Management,Llc 4.93 5.02 Source: SGX Masnet

Page 8: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

8 of 16

FTSE ST Breakdown (% Change)

STI 0.33%

0.55%

-0.93%

1.03%

3.41%-0.93%

0.44%

0.60%

0.00%

1.36%

0.54%

3.28%

0.65%

ST China

ST Real Estate

ST Re Invest Trust

ST Oil & Gas

ST Basic Materials

ST Industrials

ST Consumer Goods

ST Consumer Service

ST Telecommunicate

ST Utilites

ST Financials

ST Technology1.40%

ST Healthcare

Source: Bloomberg

FTSE ST Market Cap. Breakdown (% Change) Top Gainers Last Chg DBXT AUDCS 5AU$ 201.020 1.310 DBXT DBCBLEB 10US$ 21.730 1.020 Hyflux 6% CPS 10 107.200 1.000 Top Losers Last Chg Jardine C&C 45.280 -2.880 NY03100A 180901 10 118.939 -2.134 DBXT Nifty 10US$ 112.930 -1.290 Top Volume Last Vol Genting SP 1.635 110495 HSI21200MBePW120329 0.118 87998 HSI21600MBeCW120329 0.101 73780 TURNOVER (SHARES) 1,483,028,230

TURNOVER (S$) 1,390,285,802

UP 243

DOWN 159

0.76%

0.63% 0.13%

ST All Share

ST Fledgling

ST Small Cap

ST Mid Cap

STI0.33%

0.40%

UNCHANGED 374

Source: Bloomberg Source: SGX

Page 9: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

9 of 16

Source: Bloomberg

Major World Indices

JCI -1.62% 3,894.56

HSI 0.12% 21,406.86

KLCI 0.14% 1,558.77

KOSPI 0.60% 2,019.89

NIKKEI 0.54% 9,647.38

SET 0.53% 1,146.14

SHCOMP 1.25% 2,439.63

SENSEX -0.86% 17,923.57

ASX 0.48% 4,306.80

FTSE 100 -0.05% 5,935.13

DOW -0.01% 12,982.95

S&P 500 0.17% 1,365.74 NASDAQ 0.23% 2,963.75

COLOMBO 1.07% 5,566.30

STI 0.33% 2,978.08

ETF % Change Change LastCIMB FTSE ASEAN 40 -0.67 -0.07 10.42DB X-TRACKERS CSI300 ETF +1.56 +0.14 9.13DB X-TRACKERS FTSE CHINA 25 -0.77 -0.23 29.63DB X-TRACKERS FTSE VIETNAM +0.46 +0.11 24.25DB X-TRACKERS MSCI INDONE -3.04 -0.45 14.33DB X-TRACKERS MSCI JAPAN TRN +1.86 +0.70 38.32DB X-TRACKERS MSCI TAIWAN +0.11 +0.02 18.03DB X-TRACKERS S&P 500 INV DA -0.63 -0.24 38.00DB X-TRACKERS S&P CNX NIFTY -1.13 -1.29 112.93DB X-TRACKERS S&P/ASX 200 +0.73 +0.25 34.60ISHARES MSCI INDIA ETF -2.59 -0.17 6.40LYXOR ETF CHINA ENTERPRISE -0.60 -0.09 14.80LYXOR ETF COMMODITIES CRB-CD +0.65 +0.02 3.09LYXOR ETF JAPAN TOPIX +0.29 +0.00 1.03NIKKO AM SINGAPORE STI ETF +0.33 +0.01 3.00SPDR GOLD TRUST +0.09 +0.15 172.90SPDR STRAITS TIMES INDEX ETF +0.67 +0.02 3.00UNITED SSE 50 CHINA ETF +2.34 +0.04 1.75

ETF Perform ance

Source: Bloomberg

Page 10: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

10 of 16

Commodities % Chg Chg Last Price of S$1 Price of US$1GOLD SPOT (US$/OZ) +0.17 +3.02 1,772.45 0.7439 1.0709SILVER SPOT (US$/OZ) +0.30 +0.11 35.40 0.7954 0.9986WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot Price (US$/bbl) +1.86 +2.00 109.49 0.5917 1.3463

0.5019 1.58710.7966 1.0000

Commodities % Chg Chg Last 5.0170 6.2986Malaysian Rubber Board Standard (MYR/kg) +0.36 +4.00 1,127.50 6.1763 7.7541PALM OIL (MYR/Metric Tonne) -0.81 -26.00 3,181.00 64.4100 80.8600

896.3835 1125.3200Index % Chg Chg Last 2.4009 3.0139 DOLLAR INDEX SPOT +0.04 +0.03 78.43 24.1517 30.3200Source: Bloomberg

CANADIAN DOLLAREUROBRITISH POUND

CurrenciesAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Commodities & Currencies

JAPANESE YENKOREAN WONMALAYSIAN RINGGITTHAI BAHT

US DOLLARCHINA RENMINBIHONG KONG DOLLAR

Maturity Today Yesterday Last Week Last Month3 Months 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.026 Months 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.052 Years 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.213 Years 0.42 0.42 0.41 0.325 Years 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.7910 Years 1.97 1.99 2.00 2.0030 Years 3.10 3.13 3.14 3.15

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 3 mths)Yield Spread (10 yrs - 2 yrs)

US Treasury Yields

1.891.67

Source: Data provided by ValuBond – http://w w w .valubond.com

EX Date Company Type Net Amount Currency Frequency Record Date Payout Date2/27/2012 COSMOSTEEL HOLDINGS LTD Regular Cash 0.0100 SGD Annual 2/29/2012 3/14/20122/27/2012 SILVERLAKE AXIS LTD Interim 0.0040 SGD Quarter 2/29/2012 3/21/20122/27/2012 HUTCHISON PORT HOLDINGS TR-U Regular Cash 0.2340 HKD Irreg 2/29/2012 3/29/20122/29/2012 DIAGEO PLC-SPONSORED ADR Regular Cash 1.0482 USD Semi-Anl 3/2/2012 4/13/20123/2/2012 TAI SIN ELECTRIC LTD Interim 0.0060 SGD Semi-Anl 3/6/2012 3/16/20123/5/2012 TRANSVIEW HOLDINGS LTD Regular Cash 0.0020 SGD Annual 3/7/2012 3/23/20123/6/2012 GRP LTD Interim 0.0100 SGD Semi-Anl 3/8/2012 3/20/20123/7/2012 CAPITARETAIL CHINA TRUST Distribution 0.0442 SGD Semi-Anl 3/9/2012 3/28/20123/8/2012 CH OFFSHORE LTD Interim 0.0075 SGD Semi-Anl 3/8/2012 3/29/20123/14/2012 TOTAL SA-SPON ADR Regular Cash 0.6417 USD Quarter 3/16/2012 4/12/20123/26/2012 AVJENNINGS LTD Interim 0.0050 AUD Semi-Anl 3/28/2012 4/11/20123/28/2012 MARUWA CO LTD Final 15.0000 JPY Semi-Anl 3/31/20123/28/2012 MURATA MANUFACTURING CO LTD Final 50.0000 JPY Semi-Anl 3/31/20123/28/2012 QIAN HU CORP LTD Regular Cash 0.0060 SGD Annual 3/30/2012 4/11/20124/2/2012 HUPSTEEL LTD Interim 0.0050 SGD 3x a yr 4/4/2012 4/19/2012

Corporate Action: Dividend

Source: Bloomberg

Page 11: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

11 of 16

Calendar

Earning Announcement – SingaporeName Expected Report DateArmstrong Industrial Corp Ltd February 27, 2012A-Sonic Aerospace Ltd February 27, 2012Best World International Ltd February 27, 2012China Yuchai International Ltd February 27, 2012CSE Global Ltd February 27, 2012Design Studio Furniture Manufacturer Ltd February 27, 2012First Resources Ltd February 27, 2012Golden Agri-Resources Ltd February 27, 2012Kingsmen Creatives Ltd February 27, 2012Pacif ic Shipping Trust February 27, 2012Q & M Dental Group Singapore Ltd February 27, 2012QAF Ltd February 27, 2012RH PetroGas Ltd February 27, 2012SembCorp Industries Ltd February 27, 2012Sw iber Holdings Ltd February 27, 2012(C) Ferrell International Ltd/TW February 28, 2012Cityneon Holdings Ltd February 28, 2012Ho Bee Investment Ltd February 28, 2012Hoe Leong Corp Ltd February 28, 2012Hotel Properties Ltd February 28, 2012Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd February 28, 2012KS Energy Ltd February 28, 2012Mew ah International Inc February 28, 2012Nippecraft Ltd February 28, 2012Plato Capital Ltd February 28, 2012Singapore Reinsurance Corp Ltd February 28, 2012Sun East Group Ltd February 28, 2012Teckw ah Industrial Corp Ltd February 28, 2012Treasury China Trust February 28, 2012UMS Holdings Ltd February 28, 2012United Engineers Ltd February 28, 2012800 Super Holdings Ltd February 29, 2012Adampak Ltd February 29, 2012Advanced Integrated Manufacturing Corp Ltd February 29, 2012AEI Corp Ltd February 29, 2012CDW Holding Ltd February 29, 2012Cerebos Pacif ic Ltd February 29, 2012China Auto Corp Ltd February 29, 2012China Pow erplus Ltd February 29, 2012CNMC Goldmine Holdings Ltd February 29, 2012EMS Energy Ltd February 29, 2012euNetw orks Group Ltd February 29, 2012Europtronic Group Ltd February 29, 2012Far East Group Ltd February 29, 2012Federal International 2000 Ltd February 29, 2012Guangzhao Industrial Forest Biotechnology Group Ltd February 29, 2012Healthw ay Medical Corp Ltd February 29, 2012Jiutian Chemical Group Ltd February 29, 2012JK Tech Holdings Ltd February 29, 2012KLW Holdings Ltd February 29, 2012Malacca Trust Ltd February 29, 2012NEL Group Ltd February 29, 2012Perennial China Retail Trust February 29, 2012Sakae Holdings Ltd February 29, 2012SEF Group Ltd February 29, 2012Select Group Ltd February 29, 2012Sitra Holdings International Ltd February 29, 2012Sunmoon Food Co Ltd February 29, 2012Teledata Singapore Ltd February 29, 2012UE E&C Ltd February 29, 2012Source: Bloomberg

Page 12: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

12 of 16

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior2/27/2012 Pending Home Sales MoM JAN 1.0% -3.5% 2/29/2012 Credit Card Bad Debts JAN - - 15.6M2/27/2012 Pending Home Sales YoY JAN - - 4.40% 2/29/2012 Credit Card Billings JAN - - 3522.2M2/27/2012 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity FEB 15.9 15.3 2/29/2012 Bank Loans & Advances (YoY) JAN - - 30.3%2/28/2012 Durable Goods Orders JAN -1.0% 3.0% 2/29/2012 M1 Money Supply (YoY) JAN - - 14.8%2/28/2012 Durables Ex Transportation JAN 0.0% 2.1% 2/29/2012 M2 Money Supply (YoY) JAN - - 10.0%

2/28/2012 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air JAN 0.5% 2.9% 3/5/2012 Electronics Sector Index FEB - - 50.5

2/28/2012 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air JAN - - 2.90% 3/5/2012 Purchasing Managers Index FEB - - 48.72/28/2012 S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA DEC -0.50% -0.70% 3/7/2012 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A 7-Mar - - - -2/28/2012 S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY DEC -3.60% -3.67% 3/7/2012 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B 7-Mar - - - -2/28/2012 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YOY% 4Q - - -3.90% 3/7/2012 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E 7-Mar - - - -2/28/2012 S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind DEC - - 138.49 3/7/2012 Foreign Reserves FEB - - $245.49B2/28/2012 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI 4Q - - 130.39 3/13/2012 Singapore Manpow er Survey 2Q - - 16%2/28/2012 Consumer Conf idence FEB 63.0 61.1 3/15/2012 Unemployment Rate (sa) 4Q F - - 2.0%2/28/2012 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index FEB 10 12 3/15/2012 Retail Sales Ex Auto (YoY) JAN - - 8.1%2/29/2012 MBA Mortgage Applications 24-Feb - - -4.5% 3/15/2012 Retail Sales (YoY) JAN - - 4.2%

Source: Bloomberg

US SingaporeEconomic Announcement

Source: Bloomberg

Page 13: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

13 of 16

Important Information This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd., 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00, Raffles City Tower, Singapore 179101 (Registration Number: 198803136N), which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“Phillip Securities Research”). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this document by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately. Phillip Securities Research shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources, which Phillip Securities Research has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively, the “Research”) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief of the individual author or the indicated source (as applicable) only. Phillip Securities Research has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete, appropriate or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain or update the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, (i) be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any special, direct, indirect, incidental or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance or usage of this publication or (ii) accept any legal responsibility from any person who receives this publication, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. You must make the final investment decision and accept all responsibility for your investment decision, including, but not limited to your reliance on the information, data and/or other materials presented in this publication. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of any product referred to in this publication is not indicative of future results. This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. This publication should not be relied upon exclusively or as authoritative, without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction, nor a representation that any product described in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products, which may be described in this publication involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made, unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks. Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any product. Any decision to purchase any product mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such product. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this publication, and may have performed services for or solicited business

Page 14: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

14 of 16

from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this publication. Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment. To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold a interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments, which may be mentioned in this publication. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this material, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this material. The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction. Section 27 of the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore and the MAS Notice on Recommendations on Investment Products (FAA-N01) do not apply in respect of this publication. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. Please contact Phillip Securities Research at [65 65311240] in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. This report is only for the purpose of distribution in Singapore.

Page 15: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

15 of 16

Contact Information (Singapore Research Team)

Chan Wai Chee Lee Kok Joo, CFA Joshua Tan CEO, Research Head of Research Strategist

Special Opportunities S-Chips, Strategy +65 6531 1249 +65 6531 1231 +65 6531 1685 [email protected]

[email protected] [email protected]

Magdalene Choong Go Choon Koay, Bryan Derrick Heng Investment Analyst Investment Analyst Investment Analyst

SG & US Financials, Gaming Property Transportation, Telecom. +65 6531 1791 +65 6531 1792 +65 6531 1221

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Nicholas Low, CFA Travis Seah Peter Lee Investment Analyst Investment Analyst Research Assistant

Commodities, Offshore & Marine REITS General Enquiries +65 6531 1535 +65 6531 1229 +65 6531 1240 (Phone)

[email protected] [email protected] +65 6336 7607 (Fax) [email protected]

Page 16: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore ...internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/MorningNotes/... · expect fiscal loosening, and (3) unlimited

Morning Note 27 February 2012

16 of 16

Contact Information (Regional Member Companies)

SINGAPORE

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower

250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore 179101

Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax : (65) 6535 6631

Website: www.poems.com.sg

MALAYSIA

Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450

Kuala Lumpur Tel (603) 21628841 Fax (603) 21665099

Website: www.poems.com.my

HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd

Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway

Hong Kong Tel (852) 22776600 Fax (852) 28685307

Websites: www.phillip.com.hk

JAPAN

PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg.,

8F, 2-4-3 Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0014

Tel (81-3) 35953631 Fax (81-3) 35953630

Website:www.phillip.co.jp

INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia

ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta 10220 – Indonesia

Tel (62-21) 57900800 Fax (62-21) 57900809

Website: www.phillip.co.id

CHINA

Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 550 Yan An East Road,

Ocean Tower Unit 2318, Postal code 200001

Tel (86-21) 51699200 Fax (86-21) 63512940

Website: www.phillip.com.cn

THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd

15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak,

Bangkok 10500 Thailand Tel (66-2) 6351700 / 22680999

Fax (66-2) 22680921 Website www.phillip.co.th

FRANCE

King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008

Paris France Tel (33-1) 45633100 Fax (33-1) 45636017

Website: www.kingandshaxson.com

UNITED KINGDOM

King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House,

120 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS

Tel (44-20) 7426 5950 Fax (44-20) 7626 1757

Website: www.kingandshaxson.com

UNITED STATES

Phillip Futures Inc 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050

The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL 60604 USA

Tel +1.312.356.9000 Fax +1.312.356.9005

AUSTRALIA

PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 530 Collins Street,

Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel (613) 96298380 Fax (613) 96148309

Website: www.phillipcapital.com.au